US Politics: Loyalty Oaths for Everyone!

[Mexal]

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

 

Sorry, this is a line of argument you are going to hear. Republican facts, not mine.

The original FISA application misled the court because they used the Steele information . The original application was made in July, 2016, NOT 2013. They only last 90 days, and there were 3 renewals. That would have ended the applications at the latest in 2014, IamMe90.

The court was misled because Steele was talking to the media before the application was made, meaning the FBI should not have used his information.

The original application was therefore a poisoned tree.

Whether or not good information was obtained from the original 90 days of surveillance, because the original application was poisoned, none of the information uncovered can be used in any court.

Rosenstein may have to be a witness in the Russia investigation about why he signed applications/affidavits/whatever he signed based on improper, court-misleading, information. 

He must therefore recuse himself.

1. The FISA application was October 21, 2016, not July. This matters as there was already an ongoing investigation into Russian interference, meaning additional information was highly likely to exist at that point.

2. The court wasn't misled because you have absolutely zero idea what was in the FISA application. You do not know how the Steele dossier played a part, nor what other evidence contributed to it. You are making assumptions based on a 4 page memo that distills down a 70 page application including 3 additional renewals and you are doing this at the same time the Democrats, who read the underlying classified information, the DOJ and the FBI are all saying there are material omissions making it factually inaccurate.

3. This.

2 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

This is not how the US legal system works. What you are describing are rules of evidence in court, which are separate from what kind of evidence may be used, and how it may be collected, in the application for a warrant. 

4. Rosenstein runs the Russia investigation. Why would he be a witness to something he actually is responsible for running? Witness to who? This logic makes no sense. 

[lokisnow]

New data out on the 2016 electorate, and the exit polls were really wrong, badly undercount uneducated white voters and overcounted educated whites, Hispanic and Asian voters.

in other words it looks like Donald trump is guaranteed reelection, as his white racial appeals drove up White uneducated turnout by 2.5%

when you are talking about a demographic group that comprises 47% of the electorate, increasing the turnout of that group 2.5% is a massive number of voters. Particularly as unlike minorities, they’re distributed broadly amongst the states and have even bigger impact the whiter the state.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-02/election-analysts-discover-even-more-white-voters

 

but, given trump uniquely appeals to white uneducated voters, it’s unlikely they’ll bother to vote in the midterms (is my guess) since the fuhrer isn’t on the ballot, so without his distorting influence, the electorate may revert back to normal demographic performance.

[Mexal]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Re-read what you just wrote and think about the way this administration operates.

"This is not how the US legal system works".

That doesn't matter. The point he's making is your positioning might be what Republicans say, but it's factually incorrect and has massive logic flaws.

[IamMe90]

7 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Re-read what you just wrote and think about the way this administration operates.

"This is not how the US legal system works".

I understand that Republicans have shitty arguments that have no basis in matters of fact or procedure. I'm just saying that the arguments are wrong. 

[James Arryn]

Can you all please cease and desist from undraining the swamp, thank you very much? This memo proves beyond a doubt that the entire investigation is a withchunt, that G. Gordon Liddy is a great American, and that Strawberry-Rhubarb pie with vanilla ice cream > Marxism. There’s nothing else that needs to be added, except the symphonic sounds of exswampification.

[Mexal]

For the FISA warrant to have been renewed three times, they must have gotten some really juicy information. I wish they would make THAT public.

Oh and as a side note, the judges on the FISC are all appointed by Chief Justice Roberts.

ETA:

 

[Mexal]

Here's a good primer from Lawfareblog on the case Fragile Bird is making that failing to disclose potential bias actually matters in obtaining a warrant. Loads of information in here. Short answer, it's mostly rejected by federal judges.

Quote

It seems likely that the House Intelligence Committee will soon #ReleaseTheMemo. According to press reports, the memo claims that the FISA application to monitor Trump campaign advisor Carter Page included information sourced from former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele "without adequately explaining to the judge that Democrats financed Mr. Steele’s research." 

This is a scandal, the argument runs,  because it means the application was fraudulent.  Because Steele was funded by Democrats, his reports were just unreliable opposition research designed to make Trump and his associates look bad.  And if the FISA application was based on Steele's unreliable research, and DOJ never told that to the FISA Court, then DOJ misled the court and the court should not have issued the warrant.

As a Fourth Amendment nerd, it seems to me that the premise of #ReleaseTheMemo is pretty dubious. The apparent idea is that the failure to adequately document the funding behind Steele's work is a huge deal and a fraud on the court. But as a matter of law, that seems pretty unlikely to me. When federal judges have faced similar claims in litigation, they have mostly rejected them out of hand. And when courts have been receptive to such claims, it has been because of specific facts that are likely outside the scope of the memo that will be released. 

 

[Fragile Bird]

21 minutes ago, Mexal said:

1. The FISA application was October 21, 2016, not July. This matters as there was already an ongoing investigation into Russian interference, meaning additional information was highly likely to exist at that point.

2. The court wasn't misled because you have absolutely zero idea what was in the FISA application. You do not know how the Steele dossier played a part, nor what other evidence contributed to it. You are making assumptions based on a 4 page memo that distills down a 70 page application including 3 additional renewals and you are doing this at the same time the Democrats, who read the underlying classified information, the DOJ and the FBI are all saying there are material omissions making it factually inaccurate.

3. This.

4. Rosenstein runs the Russia investigation. Why would he be a witness to something he actually is responsible for running? Witness to who? This logic makes no sense. 

My mistake about July, I think while I was typing people on CNN were talking about some meeting in July and my fingers typed July.

1. The Republicans are defending their claim the FISA application was based solely on the Steele dossier and say they will release the transcript of McCabe's testimony to the committee where he told them it was based solely on the Steele dossier. 

2. Hey, don't get personal. Not only no one here knows if the court was misled, neither do most of the Congress and the Senate and every reporter in the USA reporting this story.

3.  Oh puhleazzzzzzzz stop with the hurt. The House Intelligence Committee isn't supposed to work the way it just did either.

4.  Do you have reading comprehension problems? Go back and re-read the claims in their memo. The applications were based on untruths paid for by the Clinton campaign. It says that the wife of a senior FBI agent, Assistant Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohrs worked at Fusion GPS on the very file in question, and that Ohrs was told by Steele that he was desperate that Trump not be elected. Those words are actually highlighted! And that the FISA application DOES NOT SAY in those 70 pages, btw the source of this information is desperate to make sure Trump is not elected. If the Intelligence Committee now does an investigation into who made the decision about what information went into this biased application Rosenstein signed, they will demand Rosenstein recuse himself. They may even force him to resign.

Don't kid yourself about this is not the way the US justice system works.

[kuenjato]

Essentially, this is a nothingburger. Makes sense why establishment Repugs didn't want it released; it's dull and will be disappointing to the radical base reared on red meat scandal. Moreover, it doesn't give Chump much in the way of ammunition to do what he so desperately wants to do--fire someone and get the pressure off his neck.

For some reason, the rumors of the pee tape are again circulating, to the point that Hannity is running interference. Something's up.

[Morpheus]

3 minutes ago, kuenjato said:

For some reason, the rumors of the pee tape are again circulating, to the point that Hannity is running interference. Something's up.

This torrent of leaks, and the steady drip drip drip of lies must stop. If you believe these fabrications by the yellow press, you’re in trouble. 

[James Arryn]

Does the ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ thesis still apply, btw? 

[Maithanet]

Notice this was released on Friday afternoon.  That's when politicians release stories they don't want to get much press.  If they really thought this was a bombshell, they'd wait until Monday. 

[Mexal]

15 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

My mistake about July, I think while I was typing people on CNN were talking about some meeting in July and my fingers typed July.

1. The Republicans are defending their claim the FISA application was based solely on the Steele dossier and say they will release the transcript of McCabe's testimony to the committee where he told them it was based solely on the Steele dossier. 

2. Hey, don't get personal. Not only no one here knows if the court was misled, neither do most of the Congress and the Senate and every reporter in the USA reporting this story.

3.  Oh puhleazzzzzzzz stop with the hurt. The House Intelligence Committee isn't supposed to work the way it just did either.

4.  Do you have reading comprehension problems? Go back and re-read the claims in their memo. The applications were based on untruths paid for by the Clinton campaign. It says that the wife of a senior FBI agent, Assistant Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohrs worked at Fusion GPS on the very file in question, and that Ohrs was told by Steele that he was desperate that Trump not be elected. Those words are actually highlighted! And that the FISA application DOES NOT SAY in those 70 pages, btw the source of this information is desperate to make sure Trump is not elected. If the Intelligence Committee now does an investigation into who made the decision about what information went into this biased application Rosenstein signed, they will demand Rosenstein recuse himself. They may even force him to resign.

Don't kid yourself about this is not the way the US justice system works.

1. Let them release that. Democrats on the committee completely disagree.

2. I'm not getting personal. The fact is, you have no idea. Every reporter covering the story says pretty much the same thing except the ones on Fox News. The FBI, DOJ and Dems on the House Intelligence Committee also say the same thing. Feel free to believe the Republicans who've done this same thing already with the whole wiretapping shit.

3. Huh?

4. I read their claims. What's your point? What does bias have to do with anything? Since when is information only good information if coming from an unbiased source? What about every CI that exists? You think they do anything out of the goodness of their heart? That's why I posted the article from Orin Kerr above.

But lets step away from that. Lets just dissect the logic about Steele. So Steele tells Ohrs that he doesn't want Trump to become President. Why do you think that is? Do you think it has anything to do with the fact that he's been investigating him for months and honestly believes he was compromised by the Russians? At that point, wouldn't you have a bias as well if your sources came back with damaging information on your subject of investigation? I mean, his stated reason for going to the press was he was worried the FBI wasn't doing anything and he worried the Americans were about to elect a compromised person as President.

I still don't get your point about Rosenstein. Two different Director of FBI signed off on this including 3 Assistant AG's. On top of that, 4 different FISA judges agreed with the renewal. If you honestly think this memo proves anything and can force Rosenstein to resign, especially when past precedent claims your argument is meh, then fair enough. I see the political pressure being ramped up from Republicans but I see it being ramped up to end the investigation, not because Rosenstein actually did anything wrong. And legal history agrees.

[Fragile Bird]

18 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Here's a good primer from Lawfareblog on the case Fragile Bird is making that failing to disclose potential bias actually matters in obtaining a warrant. Loads of information in here. Short answer, it's mostly rejected by federal judges.

 

Look, I am just repeating their arguments, that doesn't mean I agree with them.

The Republicans released their memo without allowing the Democrats to release their rebuttal or allowing the FBI or Justice Department. The first side to get their information out in a dispute can win big! Not only did they get their side out first, they are repressing the other side!

This is not only about protecting Trump, this is about the mid-term elections. There will be people who will hear about the memo and lap up the storyline the WH is feeding them, and will ignore everything else that comes out later. They will never hear the Democratic rebuttal.

Did you see Trump's tweet from this morning? He basically said the entire leadership of both the FBI and the Justice Department are corrupt and need to be replaced. It doesn't matter if they are Republicans or if he appointed them, they have obviously been corrupted by Democrats and need to be replaced, presumably until you appoint Republicans uncorrupted by the Democrat deep state.

Oh. And the Dow Jones is down more than 500 points at the moment.

[denstorebog]

13 minutes ago, kuenjato said:

Essentially, this is a nothingburger. Makes sense why establishment Repugs didn't want it released; it's dull and will be disappointing to the radical base reared on red meat scandal.

As someone who spends way too much time on the sites frequented by these people (so the rest of you don't have to), this is flat out wrong. You right now have Gaetz on Fox News establishing in a thunderous voice that this memo is like the end station for Truth, that the whole riddle of what happened in 2016 is now solved, and that Pelosi and the Democrats have at long last been revealed as the masterminds behind everything from Russian hacking of democracy to polio.

The base doesn't need to understand half of what the document says. They just need to understand that there's a document, that the truth is now manifest, and that it confirms all their suspicions about the Deep State. The ground has been fertilized, now Trump can start firing people.

(Also, what Fragile Bird said. This is the Republican play for the midterms, and it may work out just splendidly. Depends on how explosive Mueller's actions later this year will be. Watch the GCB developments the coming week.)

[James Arryn]

6 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

As someone who spends way too much time on the sites frequented by these people (so the rest of you don't have to), this is flat out wrong. You right now have Gaetz on Fox News establishing in a thunderous voice that this memo is like the end station for Truth, that the whole riddle of what happened in 2016 is now solved, and that Pelosi and the Democrats have at long last been revealed as the masterminds behind everything from Russian hacking of democracy to polio.

The base doesn't need to understand half of what the document says. They just need to understand that there's a document, that the truth is now manifest, and that it confirms all their suspicions about the Deep State. The ground has been fertilized, now Trump can start firing people.

(Also, what Fragile Bird said. This is the Republican play for the midterms, and it may work out just splendidly. Depends on how explosive Mueller's actions later this year will be. Watch the GCB developments the coming week.)

Supposing this is true, though, the content it completely irrelevant. Unless the idea is that actual content would have distracted the narrative, so the GOP are relieved at the way things turned out, the pattern you’re identifying is absolutely divorced from reality and you could have written the exact same script yesterday. 

[Mexal]

10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Look, I am just repeating their arguments, that doesn't mean I agree with them.

The Republicans released their memo without allowing the Democrats to release their rebuttal or allowing the FBI or Justice Department. The first side to get their information out in a dispute can win big! Not only did they get their side out first, they are repressing the other side!

This is not only about protecting Trump, this is about the mid-term elections. There will be people who will hear about the memo and lap up the storyline the WH is feeding them, and will ignore everything else that comes out later. They will never hear the Democratic rebuttal.

Did you see Trump's tweet from this morning? He basically said the entire leadership of both the FBI and the Justice Department are corrupt and need to be replaced. It doesn't matter if they are Republicans or if he appointed them, they have obviously been corrupted by Democrats and need to be replaced, presumably until you appoint Republicans uncorrupted by the Democrat deep state.

Oh. And the Dow Jones is down more than 500 points at the moment.

Fair enough. Not sure why you're repeating their bad arguments but ok. 

We'll see what happens. Trump has said a lot of things. This is pretty much a repeat of the whole unmasking conspiracy and wiretapping conspiracy. Time will tell of it actually does any damage or not.

[kuenjato]

28 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

As someone who spends way too much time on the sites frequented by these people (so the rest of you don't have to), this is flat out wrong. You right now have Gaetz on Fox News establishing in a thunderous voice that this memo is like the end station for Truth, that the whole riddle of what happened in 2016 is now solved, and that Pelosi and the Democrats have at long last been revealed as the masterminds behind everything from Russian hacking of democracy to polio.

The base doesn't need to understand half of what the document says. They just need to understand that there's a document, that the truth is now manifest, and that it confirms all their suspicions about the Deep State. The ground has been fertilized, now Trump can start firing people.

(Also, what Fragile Bird said. This is the Republican play for the midterms, and it may work out just splendidly. Depends on how explosive Mueller's actions later this year will be. Watch the GCB developments the coming week.)

Highly doubtful. The base is already convinced; there is literally nothing that can be done to change their minds. What is essential is that the material is not "easy-scandal" fodder, rather the usual deep/state, con-theory crap. All the more given the unending barrage of scandal that has made even presidents-fucking-porn-stars-while-their-kids-are-breastfeeding just another week's news.

A huge part of the problem are people hand-wringing about what Trump's 37% minority are going to think. This is a systemic issue among both the left and the media. 

[Mexal]

Even RedState is questioning the credibility of the memo.

Quote

Amid all the excitement over the Devin Nunes #TheMemo, it is important to remember that it is a partisan summary of FISA warrant applications that we the People have not been allowed to see. And in determining whether you trust Nunes’s summary, it might be relevant that it inaccurately summarizes something that is public record: James Comey’s testimony in 2017 regarding whether the allegations in the memo had been verified. Here is the claim in Nunes’s memo:

Got that? Nunes claims that James Comey testified in June 2017 that “the Steele dossier” was “salacious and unverified.” The claim is not that a particular portion of the dossier is salacious and unverified. The claim is that Comey testified that the dossier(“it”) is salacious and unverified. That’s what Nunes says in the memo excerpt above.

And it’s not true. That’s not James Comey’s testimony.

 

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Supposing this is true, though, the content it completely irrelevant. Unless the idea is that actual content would have distracted the narrative, so the GOP are relieved at the way things turned out, the pattern you’re identifying is absolutely divorced from reality and you could have written the exact same script yesterday. 

Right, I mean, people acting outraged on Fox News is what they do.  They do it every day, regardless of what is happening.  Some scandals get mainstream traction, some get traction only on the right wing, and some get no traction anywhere and just disappear.  My suspicion is that Fox News will act like this is a big deal, but it doesn't really go anywhere else.