Heresy 215 - Hammering Out the Timeline

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

We’ve already pointed out the discrepancies surrounding the timing of both the Battle and the weddings, and the disbelief that Jon Arryn wouldn’t call his banners until 7-8 months after Lyanna goes missing.

Again, we do not know when in the year Lyanna went missing.

 

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The dates listed in the wiki seem to be based upon Jon Connington’s recall of 17 years ago. And i’m assuming the person updating the wiki is using year 300 for the current story, because the Conquest was said to occur 300 years ago, but don’t many characters refer to this arbitrary 300 years ago throughout all five books? It was 300 years ago for Robb when he died in 299, so did JonCon think back on those 17 years ago in 299 or 300? Is 300 years ago meaningless? Has a whole year gone by from when Robb died to when JonCon thinks back?

Joffrey's wedding is on the first day of 300 AC. Dance ends roughly in the middle of the year, give or take a month or two, something like that. Robb died close to the end of 299 AC, so it has not yet been a year, though I'm sure the one year mark will be reached at some point in Winds.

[Frey family reunion]

On 12/22/2018 at 5:36 PM, Brad Stark said:

I'd be willing to bet Rhaegar is a gray character in GRRM's mind

oh wait you said gray character, never mind.

[St Daga]

13 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

@St Daga I think Viserys should also receive proper education as a spare but after their flight to Essos his education seem to be limited to those he learned and while Daenerys is fluent in High Valyrian and has a Tyroshi accent, she seem to be uneducated and only knows the stories of Viserys? 

There are many things that seem to be odd or unexpected in Dany's back story. The education and language really stand out. Good point!

[St Daga]

12 hours ago, a black swan said:

On 12/22/2018 at 4:30 AM, St Daga said:

There is certainly a lot of winter imagery around Alys, especially during her wedding. But that wedding isn't to a Stark, but a wildling. However, the exchange is between Jon and Alys, and could certainly foreshadow future events or a relationship. 

As for being Winter's Lady, I think it still needs to be determined if "winter" as in Winter is Coming is a good thing, a threat of don't cross the Starks or a promise of a frozen hell on Planetos that no one can stop!!! 

Jon was actuslly thinking of Arya as he looked at Alys abd saw the frosty crown. The fact that ys is another phantom Arya should connect more dots. But the fact that George inserts Arya into this scene should defintely raise some red flags of foreshadowing. As this seems to occur several times with these phantom Aryas. Willow in the Riverlands (who Brienne thinks is Arya) is described as acting like a Queen. 

After my earlier post, I did have a thought about Alys and Arya as foils to one another (but I was driving and then the thought flittered out of my mind as quickly as it flittered in), and you mention some interesting things, about Arya's queen imagery, starting with Eddard telling Arya she will marry a king and rule his castle. Most people right this off as Ned being incorrect about Arya, or perhaps this imagery is foreshadowing for Sansa. But I think it is about Arya, and is lovely foreshadowing for her. When we first meet Alys Karstark, we are introduced to a girl who has been hinted to Jon as his sister Arya as a "grey girl on a dying horse" and then we met Alys Karstark, who looks a bit like Arya, enough to make Jon pause for a moment. So, when we have Jon staring down and Alys wearing a crown of snow and ready to wed, I wonder if this is a foreshadowing of Arya's arc. 

So, in Dance we have the Alys/Arya mix-up, and then I expect something similar in Winds, but with Jeyne Poole who once teased and made fun of Arya, will be another Arya Stark stand-in crossing Jon's path. Little teases from the author until Jon and Arya finally cross path's again for real. I cannot imagine that GRRM will not do that, not with both of them such large shadow's in the other's arc. GRRM has been teasing us with their reunion since early in game, and I think the Arya/Alys and Arya/Jeyne interactions with Jon will be practice for the real deal!

[St Daga]

12 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

15 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

We’ve already pointed out the discrepancies surrounding the timing of both the Battle and the weddings, and the disbelief that Jon Arryn wouldn’t call his banners until 7-8 months after Lyanna goes missing.

Again, we do not know when in the year Lyanna went missing.

The time table is pretty open on some of these dates, but another thing to consider, even if a long time does pass, is that it wasn't Lyanna's kidnapping that directly lead to Jon Arryn defying Aerys and calling his banners. There was a series of several major events that had to occur before Jon's defiance of House Targaryen. With communication being limited and travel times possibly taking more time than expected, I would think that at least six months could reasonable, with perhaps even more time actually passing than we think seems reasonable.

And truly, I think GRRM has spent a lot less time on his own timeline than we have. I think he has left it vague on purpose, which gives him some leeway while telling his story. We might never get it set town with complete accuracy.

[SirArthur]

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

And truly, I think GRRM has spent a lot less time on his own timeline than we have. I think he has left it vague on purpose, which gives him some leeway while telling his story. We might never get it set town with complete accuracy.

I don't know. The problem is, GRRM has all the information. And Dany is ... outright not able to think one step ahead, yet she is our trusted source with some calculations. 

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship's black sails. Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark. Princess Elia of Dorne pleading for mercy as Rhaegar's heir was ripped from her breast and murdered before her eyes. The polished skulls of the last dragons staring down sightlessly from the walls of the throne room while the Kingslayer opened Father's throat with a golden sword.

"Death?" Dany wrapped her arms around herself protectively, rocked back and forth on her heels. "My death?" She told herself she would die for him, if she must. She was the blood of the dragon, she would not be afraid. Her brother Rhaegar had died for the woman he loved.

"But that was the tourney when he crowned Lyanna Stark as queen of love and beauty!" said Dany. "Princess Elia was there, his wife, and yet my brother gave the crown to the Stark girl, and later stole her away from her betrothed. How could he do that? Did the Dornish woman treat him so ill?"

This outright shows us, that something is wrong with our perception. "Rhaegar died for the woman he loved", yet after the source (Dany) thinks this 2 times, the same source is outright surprised that Rhaegar crowned Lyanna. I don't know if Dany is stupid and didn't once think about the woman Rhaegar loved or what, if at all, is going on in her head. In her central story, that defines who she thinks she is. From Dany I forward. Who does she thinks Rhaegar loved ? 

And I assume we have the same filter problem with our timeline. We have two stories. The story of Lyanna and the war and the then later the story how Aerys took heirs hostage to force the Lords to come to him. This version does not fit the Brandon-Lyanna version, where Brandon should be the criminal wanting to kill Rhaegar. There was no need to force-summon Arryn, Royce, Mallister and Stark over Brandon's actions (by taking their heirs, I'm not sure if Royce and Mallister were heirs). And to an extend the same is true for the Jaime-Tywin connection. Tyrion is the heir unless Jaime is somehow released from his duty.

And to come back to the original question if GRRM had thought about it, for the cover story to work, the real story has to be thought through. Unless we are all wrong of course and there is no cover story and Dany is just indoctrinated.

[Melifeather]

Merry Christmas fellow Heretics! I hope you are enjoying your few extra seconds of daylight now that we've gotten past the winter solstice!

I saw something on tv that caused me to wonder if we were missing something with regards to Renly and Stannis and that brotherly peach?

A peach can look like a woman's genitalia, so when Renly tried to show Robert a picture of Margaery, because he thought she looked like Lyanna, and then later offers Stannis a peach, was he kinda sorta offering the same thing? Thoughts?

[alienarea]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

A peach can look like a woman's genitalia, so when Renly tried to show Robert a picture of Margaery, because he thought she looked like Lyanna, and then later offers Stannis a peach, was he kinda sorta offering the same thing? Thoughts?

Both Robert and Stannis fell because of a woman?

Anyway, Christmas is over. What is the opinion of Black Crow on this?

 

[asongofheresy]

Happy Late Christmas everyone - I was reading Babes in the Woods thread last night and I was delighted that Rhaegar as a bastard isn't something I only thought! If anyone is interested there is a great theory that suggest Rhaegar could be child of Duncan and Jenny.

Spoiler

http://jertech.blogspot.com/2015/06/rhaegar-dragonfly.html?m=1

It is interesting Rhaella and Aerys ended up having a healthy child with their first one but after him has three miscarriages, two stillbirths and three infant deaths until Aerys took a vow to be faithful and Viserys is born healthy. Daenerys is another matter as we know. So Rhaegar's birth is also suspicious and what if Viserys was the PTWP? 

[SirArthur]

7 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Happy Late Christmas everyone - I was reading Babes in the Woods thread last night and I was delighted that Rhaegar as a bastard isn't something I only thought! If anyone is interested there is a great theory that suggest Rhaegar could be child of Duncan and Jenny.

  Reveal hidden contents

http://jertech.blogspot.com/2015/06/rhaegar-dragonfly.html?m=1

It is interesting Rhaella and Aerys ended up having a healthy child with their first one but after him has three miscarriages, two stillbirths and three infant deaths until Aerys took a vow to be faithful and Viserys is born healthy. Daenerys is another matter as we know. So Rhaegar's birth is also suspicious and what if Viserys was the PTWP? 

I would not be surprised if they had no children together and that there either is no promised prince or that one of Aerys's childs has to marry one of Rhaella's childs for it to happen. e.g. lik Tyrion has to marry Dany. 

[Lady Rhodes]

Man, I am out of the forum for a couple of days and feel like I have missed everything! Can anyone give me a quick recap of where we are at?

[Lady Rhodes]

On ‎12‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 2:23 AM, St Daga said:

The time table is pretty open on some of these dates, but another thing to consider, even if a long time does pass, is that it wasn't Lyanna's kidnapping that directly lead to Jon Arryn defying Aerys and calling his banners. There was a series of several major events that had to occur before Jon's defiance of House Targaryen. With communication being limited and travel times possibly taking more time than expected, I would think that at least six months could reasonable, with perhaps even more time actually passing than we think seems reasonable.

I am inclined to think you are right with this. I posted above that I have been out a few days, so regrettably behind in reading comments.  But this dovetails with something I posted last week: I think there is a larger gap in time between the Tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna's abduction than what we are led to believe.  (I have posited that the tourney happened earlier in 281 rather than later, but I would also find substance in Lyanna's abduction being later in 282 rather than earlier.)  They key point is that there is a gap.

I think that there are key players that don't lie, per se, but allow people, even in story, to assume or conflate the incidents (Tourney of Harrenhal and the Abduction) as being related, and I think each of the key players has their own reasons for this.

Part of this is that I think Lyanna was in the Riverlands for a reason (I think on the Isle of Faces) doing something for Rickard Stark or his Southron Ambitions group. She was doing this in that gap of time.  But I don't think it was something that she was necessarily supposed to be doing or it shouldn't be widely known. Now, pair that with what I quoted above - I don't think it was Lyanna's kidnapping that ked Jon to defy Aerys.  Also, Rickard marched south to free Brandon - I don't recall him looking for his daughter.  And Ned just stayed in the Eryie while his sister was kidnapped?  I think there is more to this.

[Melifeather]

22 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Merry Christmas fellow Heretics! I hope you are enjoying your few extra seconds of daylight now that we've gotten past the winter solstice!

I saw something on tv that caused me to wonder if we were missing something with regards to Renly and Stannis and that brotherly peach?

A peach can look like a woman's genitalia, so when Renly tried to show Robert a picture of Margaery, because he thought she looked like Lyanna, and then later offers Stannis a peach, was he kinda sorta offering the same thing? Thoughts?

 

You may recall that I believe GRRM is making a statement about the medieval practice of making alliances through marriage - basically paying for the alliance with a maidenhead. He's making an analogy between this practice and prostitution. He's pointing out that by forcing daughters into marriages that they had no say over was basically the same as a pimp prostituting a woman. The peach therefore, is still symbolic of the exchange, but Stannis is unmoved. He is not like their brother Robert. Robert had no qualms about sex out of wedlock or being lured into an alliance with the promise of a woman's maidenhead, whereas Stannis is a different kettle of fish. Renly realized that Stannis could never be swayed into an alliance with the promise of a maidenhead, so he offers the only thing that might persuade him. He reminds him that he is his brother. The complete irony of the exchange is that simply being his brother is of no value to make an alliance over.   

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Man, I am out of the forum for a couple of days and feel like I have missed everything! Can anyone give me a quick recap of where we are at?

We were still debating the timeline of the Rebellion, but we don't have a consensus. I had interrupted the current topic by circling back to an earlier discussion about Renly's peach. 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am inclined to think you are right with this. I posted above that I have been out a few days, so regrettably behind in reading comments.  But this dovetails with something I posted last week: I think there is a larger gap in time between the Tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna's abduction than what we are led to believe.  (I have posited that the tourney happened earlier in 281 rather than later, but I would also find substance in Lyanna's abduction being later in 282 rather than earlier.)  They key point is that there is a gap.

I think that there are key players that don't lie, per se, but allow people, even in story, to assume or conflate the incidents (Tourney of Harrenhal and the Abduction) as being related, and I think each of the key players has their own reasons for this.

Part of this is that I think Lyanna was in the Riverlands for a reason (I think on the Isle of Faces) doing something for Rickard Stark or his Southron Ambitions group. She was doing this in that gap of time.  But I don't think it was something that she was necessarily supposed to be doing or it shouldn't be widely known. Now, pair that with what I quoted above - I don't think it was Lyanna's kidnapping that ked Jon to defy Aerys.  Also, Rickard marched south to free Brandon - I don't recall him looking for his daughter.  And Ned just stayed in the Eryie while his sister was kidnapped?  I think there is more to this.

I think everyone can agree that the World book cannot be used as an absolute authority on every topic, but there are a few things that Maester Yandel should have no need to lie or embellish about - such as whether or not the Year of the False Spring was only a couple months at the end of 281 or that the tourney was held in one of those months. I think we can be relatively certain that the tourney was held later in Nov 281. (there needs to be some leeway for people to believe Spring had arrived, to plan the tourney, and then allow time for guests to arrive.) 

Lyanna's disappearance at the start of the new year is also a detail that seems unlikely to have been embellished. People would remember when the deaths of Rickard and Brandon were, or when Jon Arryn called his banners.

Pushing the Battle of the Bells into 283 as well as pushing Ned and Catelyn's marriage after that battle could be problematic if pushed too late into the year, because Robb Stark is listed as being born in 283. He was 16 when he died, yet Jon Connington recalls the Battle of the Bells occurring 17 years ago. Is JonCon thinking about the B-Bells the same year Robb died, or did Robb die the year before? 

The 300 years since the Conquest is used to establish the year of the current story, yet neglects the fact that the characters have been saying the Conquest occurred 300 years ago through all five books, so it's basically meaningless. If Robb died in 299 did the Conquest occur in the year 1 BC? Or when the Starks found that mother direwolf in the snow when Robb was 14-15, did the Conquest occur in 2-3 BC?

We have no definitive way to pinpoint the timeline with absolute accuracy. Basically it could be theorized to fit more than one way. If you're an R+L=J fan, your preference is a late quarter start in 282 for the Rebellion so that it fits the narrative of being born and found at Starfall or tower of joy late in 283, which IMO is just silly, because then he wasn't conceived until early in 283 - nearly a year after Lyanna went missing. To me, this is making the timeline fit a narrative.

The timeline I proposed keeps to a short list of known events:

Rhaegar and Elia's marriage in 280

Rhaenys birth - also in 280

Rhaenys and Aegon's ages during the Sack

The length of the siege of Storm's End at around a year

The length of the Rebellion as also lasting about a year

Pushing the start of the Rebellion to the third quarter of 282 requires making Rhaenys and Aegon older than their stated ages upon death, and leaves a recovering Elia on Dragonstone while Rhaegar is off abducting Lyanna, with no way of getting back to Kings Landing in time to be made Aerys's hostage.

There is no consensus here on Heresy - but none is required. 

[JNR]

On 12/22/2018 at 2:20 PM, Matthew. said:

I feel like Martin's exactness here is still in question; Aegon, for example, is said to be a year old "give or take a turn or two." So, in essence, an extemporaneous answer that implies Aegon could be as young as ten months, or as old as a year and two months, creating a pretty broad range.

Well, I think even if you imagine Rhaegar was with Elia and Aegon two months before the war began, or two months after, that still makes it awkward for R+L=J. 

If Dany's vision is two months after the war began, for instance, that seemingly means Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, then he rushed back to Dragonstone and threw Lyanna in a closet so he could attend Elia as she gave birth to Aegon and then he stayed there two more months.  It's just a mess, IMO.

Of course, even if we imagine Rhaegar was with Elia and Aegon at the time the war began, we do still have the considerable mystery of where Rhaegar went after Aegon was born, and what he did, until he "returned from the south" so enigmatically in Jaime's memory.  But we have that to account for no matter what. 

And I certainly don't believe the app, which says Aerys knew Rhaegar was at the TOJ with Lyanna and Aerys, sent Hightower to bring Rhaegar back, and Aerys also... somehow failed to take Lyanna hostage and thus substantially increase his chances of winning the war.  That whole concept is a nonstarter for me and indicts the app as a source of useful info.

[JNR]

On 12/24/2018 at 4:21 PM, SirArthur said:

Dany is ... outright not able to think one step ahead, yet she is our trusted source with some calculations. 

You got that right.  Consider for instance the text you quoted next:

On 12/24/2018 at 4:21 PM, SirArthur said:

The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark.

Whoops.

We know, factually, that the Starks did not sack King's Landing and indeed Ned Stark was furious that Elia and Rhaenys and Aegon were murdered, to the point he stormed out of King's Landing in a rage. 

So the quoted text seems to be a lie or mistake fed her by Viserys, and it forces us to wonder what else he got wrong.

[Frey family reunion]

10 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Happy Late Christmas everyone - I was reading Babes in the Woods thread last night and I was delighted that Rhaegar as a bastard isn't something I only thought! If anyone is interested there is a great theory that suggest Rhaegar could be child of Duncan and Jenny.

  Reveal hidden contents

http://jertech.blogspot.com/2015/06/rhaegar-dragonfly.html?m=1

It is interesting Rhaella and Aerys ended up having a healthy child with their first one but after him has three miscarriages, two stillbirths and three infant deaths until Aerys took a vow to be faithful and Viserys is born healthy. Daenerys is another matter as we know. So Rhaegar's birth is also suspicious and what if Viserys was the PTWP? 

It’s an interesting theory, and one I’ll have to think about.  I do like the idea of a baby swap at Summerhall.  But do we have any indication that Jenny was visibly pregnant at the time of Summerhall?  The other slight problem is just how traditionally Valyrian Rhaegar looks.  Duncan the Small was half a Blackwood (and the one image we have of him in the Worldbook, is as a dark haired Targaryen) and we have no reason to conclude that Jenny looked Targaryen.  And if we’re going to play around with the Dragonfly quote: 

Quote

He sat naked under the elm while he dried, enjoying the warmth of the spring air on his skin as he watched a dragonfly move lazily amongst the reeds. Why would they name it a dragonfly? he wondered. It looks nothing like a dragon.

Now sparked by the first part of this quote, my own pet theory, is that Jenny may have had a bun in the oven at the time of Summerhall, and either Jenny marries into House Reed, or her child is adopted by House Reed.  So you can probably guess who I think Jenny and Duncan the Small’s child is.  (Basically a variation on Hans Christian Anderson’s tale the Marsh King’s Daughter.)

But to start, let’s try and guess where Jenny of Oldstones probably really came from, and what she probably looked like.

The first time we hear about Jenny is when the Ghost of High Heart asks Tom of Sevenstreams to sing her Jenny’s Song.

Quote

And so Lem woke Tom Sevenstrings beneath his furs, and brought him yawning to the fireside with his woodharp in hand. “The same song as before?” he asked.

“Oh, aye. My Jenny’s song. Is there another?”

The next time Jenny’s name is brought up is when she and Robb discuss succession, bastards and Blackfyre at the ruins of Oldstones:

Quote

“Oldstones, all the smallfolk called it when I was a girl, but no doubt it had some other name when it was still a hall of kings.” She had camped here once with her father, on their way to Seagard. Petyr was with us too …

“There’s a song,” he remembered. ” ‘Jenny of Oldstones, with the flowers in her hair.’ ” 

Then we learn about the former Kings of the Rivers and the Hills:

Quote

“Here lies Tristifer, the Fourth of His Name, King of the Rivers and the Hills.” Her father had told her his story once. “He ruled from the Trident to the Neck, thousands of years before Jenny and her prince, in the days when the kingdoms of the First Men were falling one after the other before the onslaught of the Andals. The Hammer of Justice, they called him.”

 Tristifer and Jenny’s song, Oldstones, and Tom Sevenstrings are revisited during Merrett Frey’s hanging:

Quote

Fallen leaves lay thick upon the ground, like soldiers after some great slaughter.  A man in patched, faded greens was sitting crosslegged atop a weathered stone sepulcher, fingering the strings of a woodharp. The music was soft and sad. Merrett knew the song. High in the halls of the kings who are gone, Jenny would dance with her ghosts …

“Get off there,” Merrett said. “You’re sitting on a king.”

“Old Tristifer don’t mind my bony arse. The Hammer of Justice, they called him. Been a long while since he heard any new songs.”

Turning back to Tom Sevenstrings, we learn that he, like the Reeds, is a small man with brown hair, who is very fond of the color green:

Quote

She knew the singer by the wood harp he cradled against his jerkin, as a mother might cradle a babe.  A small man, fifty from the look of him, he had a big mouth, a sharp nose, and thinning brown hair.

Quote

He was a small fellow, garbed in ragged green breeches and a frayed tunic of a lighter shade of green, with brown leather patches covering the holes.  His nose was long and sharp, his smile big and loose.  Thin brown hair fell to his collar, snuggled and unwashed.  Fifty if he’s a day, thought Jaime, a hedge harp, and hard used by life.

We also learn that in Sevenstreams, where Tom hails, everyone is related:

Quote

“I sang at your daughter’s wedding.  And passing well, I thought.  That Pate she married was a cousin.  We’re all cousins in Sevenstreams.”

While Jenny is officially known as being from Oldstones, if you look at the Westeros map, Oldstones is located south of Hag’s Mire.  After Cat and Robb have their discussion at Oldstones, they rode north up the Blue Fork, and the nearest town they cross is Sevenstreams:

Quote

Day followed day, and still the rain kept falling.  All the way up the Blue Fork they rode, past Sevenstreams where the river unraveled into a confusion of rills and brooks, then through Hag’s Mire, where glistening green pools waited to swallow the unwary and the soft ground sucked at the hooves of their horses like a hungry babe at it’s mother’s breast.

So it doesn’t take a leap to conclude that Jenny may have been found by Duncan in Oldstones, but in reality is from Sevenstreams.  Where everyone is related to each other.  Which means Jenny could be related to the short, brown haired, Tom of Sevenstrings, and could very well resemble her cousin, short and brown of hair.

Quote

Though betrothed to a daughter of House Baratheon of Storm’s End, Duncan became enamored of a strange, lovely, and mysterious girl who called herself Jenny of Oldstones in 239 AC, whilst traveling in the riverlands. Though she dwelt half-wild amidst ruins and claimed descent from the long-vanished kings of the First Men, the smallfolk of surrounding villages mocked such tales, insisting that she was only some half-mad peasant girl, perhaps even a witch.

So probably, the long-vanished kings that Jenny claims descent from is the Kings of House Mudd, the last of which was Tristifer IV, the statue where Tom Sevenstrings sat his bony ass atop of.

So my pet theory is that Jenny (of Sevenstreams) is pregnant with Duncan the Small’s child, who is adopted by House Reed, and grows up to become Howland Reed.

Now one question that intrigues me, is that does Howland Reed take after his mom, and find himself a partner who was originally betrothed to House Baratheon?

[Lady Rhodes]

@Feather Crystal hope you had a happy holiday! Thank you for the summary

I think I have been too heavily focusing on the timeline and not enough on why I think there was a gap and why I think the gap is important.  So, I'm going to detail that a bit.

Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to wed Catelyn when he heard of Lyanna's disappearance.  If the Tourney was when most people believe (late 281), it lasted a fortnight (about 2 weeks), and we know that Lyanna was taken the following year (282), we can ascertain that there is at least some form of a gap.

Rickard was marching south to Riverrun for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.  After Brandon was jailed in King's Landing, he then redirected course with his group to head to King's Landing to free Brandon after Aerys summoned him. Multiple questions- Why did Rickard not head to King's Landing himself when he heard about Lyanna's disappearance?  Why did Ned not leave the Eyrie? His brother's wedding was a big enough of an event that Rickard and 200+ Northmen are coming down, why isn't Ned attending? Furthermore, why didn't Ned go after Lyanna himself, with Robert?

I am thinking that Barbrey Dustin's remark about Rickard's Southron Ambitions (which I know has been discussed ad nauseum on other threads and forums) bears more fruit.  The only things we really hear about the tourney of Harrenhal are Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, The Knight of the Laughing Tree, Jaime's appointment to the Kingsguard, and a bit about Ashara dancing with some people.  We also know that Aerys attended because he thought that Rhaegar was plotting to depose of him.  We also know that Howland Reed (through Meera Reed) that Howland was on the isle of faces for sometime prior to the tourney of Harrenhal and met with the green men.

In short - I am wondering if more "great council" talk occurred, even if we were not privy to it. I wonder if Rickard thought, rightly, that Brandon is too rash when he reacts, rather than thinking things through and did not confide in him certain parts of the plan.  I think Lyanna was doing some things in the Riverlands on the behest of Rickard during the gap, which is why she was by Harrenhal. 
Other thoughts, if Rhaegar was very into the PtwP prophecy, could it not be a possibility that Rhaegar and Rickard discussed this? Perhaps Benjen went to the Wall to be "eyes and ears" of happenings going on up there.  Perhaps Rickard and Jon Arryn had discussing breaking Lyanna's betrothal to Robert to wed her to Rhaegar to complete the prophecy but plans had not been set in stone.  Jon, perhaps, did not share the information to Robert and Ned as to what was happening until all hell broke loose when Brandon found out and caused a ruckus in King's Landing.

These are just some errant thoughts on the topic, but given the little information we have above, I think it is something worth considering - that Lyanna was doing Rickard's bidding in the Riverlands after the tourney of Harrenhal and before her disappearance.

 

[Frey family reunion]

11 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Why did Rickard not head to King's Landing himself when he heard about Lyanna's disappearance?  Why did Ned not leave the Eyrie? His brother's wedding was a big enough of an event that Rickard and 200+ Northmen are coming down, why isn't Ned attending? Furthermore, why didn't Ned go after Lyanna himself, with Robert?

My take is that Brandon and his company may have been with Lyanna at the time of her disappearance.  Which is why Brandon reacts before word can reach Rickard, Eddard, Robert, or Jon Arryn.

[Melifeather]

19 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to wed Catelyn when he heard of Lyanna's disappearance.  If the Tourney was when most people believe (late 281), it lasted a fortnight (about 2 weeks), and we know that Lyanna was taken the following year (282), we can ascertain that there is at least some form of a gap.

Brandon's words to Catelyn before leaving her imply he was there to wed her when he heard about Lyanna, but was leaving because he didn't think it would take very long to resolve. And it is possible Rickard was also already there with him at Riverrun.

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Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. “I shall not be long, my lady,” he had vowed. “We will be wed on my return.” Yet when the day came at last, it was his brother Eddard who stood beside her in the sept.

 

19 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Rickard was marching south to Riverrun for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.  After Brandon was jailed in King's Landing, he then redirected course with his group to head to King's Landing to free Brandon after Aerys summoned him. Multiple questions- Why did Rickard not head to King's Landing himself when he heard about Lyanna's disappearance?  Why did Ned not leave the Eyrie? His brother's wedding was a big enough of an event that Rickard and 200+ Northmen are coming down, why isn't Ned attending? Furthermore, why didn't Ned go after Lyanna himself, with Robert?

It depends upon "how" Brandon "heard about Lyanna". If it was a rumor only being spread around the Riverlands, then Rickard would not have heard of it until he arrived to Riverrun. By then Brandon was already gone. We are told Rickard didn't go to Kings Landing until he was summoned, so we don't know if the summon reached him at Riverrun or if he returned to Winterfell first. And Ned wouldn't have heard either unless his father sent the news to him. It's not like Hoster Tully is going to send ravens all over to announce Lyanna's abduction. He could have sent a raven to just Rickard or to Rickard and Ned, but Ned may not have left the Eyrie unless Jon Arryn gave him leave. Rickard also could have told Ned to stay put. If Brandon and Rickard thought they had just entered into an agreement with Rhargar at the tourney of Harrenhal, and then believed he had just abducted Lyanna, they would have been very confused. King Aerys demand could appear as if the coup was revealed or even that it was a betrayal. All of these events would have come as quite a shock. Rickard would have realized the danger in being summoned and would not want his next heir placed in any danger. Ned needed to remain in the relative safety of the Eyrie.

19 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

In short - I am wondering if more "great council" talk occurred, even if we were not privy to it. I wonder if Rickard thought, rightly, that Brandon is too rash when he reacts, rather than thinking things through and did not confide in him certain parts of the plan.  I think Lyanna was doing some things in the Riverlands on the behest of Rickard during the gap, which is why she was by Harrenhal. 
Other thoughts, if Rhaegar was very into the PtwP prophecy, could it not be a possibility that Rhaegar and Rickard discussed this? Perhaps Benjen went to the Wall to be "eyes and ears" of happenings going on up there.  Perhaps Rickard and Jon Arryn had discussing breaking Lyanna's betrothal to Robert to wed her to Rhaegar to complete the prophecy but plans had not been set in stone.  Jon, perhaps, did not share the information to Robert and Ned as to what was happening until all hell broke loose when Brandon found out and caused a ruckus in King's Landing.

There's an SSM where George states quite emphatically that women just didn't run away from their family arranged marriages, so if Lyanna was sneaking around the Riverlands, it would be due to her impulsive nature and not anything approved by her father.

[Frey family reunion]

15 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

In short - I am wondering if more "great council" talk occurred, even if we were not privy to it. I wonder if Rickard thought, rightly, that Brandon is too rash when he reacts, rather than thinking things through and did not confide in him certain parts of the plan.  I think Lyanna was doing some things in the Riverlands on the behest of Rickard during the gap, which is why she was by Harrenhal.

I don’t think that Rhaegar ever had this discussion with Rickard or the other Lords, and I think he might have regretted it, which may be the background behind this statement to Jaime:

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Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime’s shoulder. “When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but … well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return.”

So my thought is, perhaps Rhaegar and Lord Whent created the Harrenhal tourney as some type of subterfuge for preparation for the Long Night:

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That’s Lady Whent’s seat, and she’s always been a friend o’ The Watch.”

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The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brothers teased her for crying she poured a wine over his head.  A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night’s Watch.

So Rhaegar sings his sad song, and following this a recruitment pitch is made for knights to join the Night’s Watch.  Perhaps, Rhaegar and Lord Whent can’t convince any knights to join the fight, but maybe they strike a chord with Lyanna Stark.  Rhaegar extends an invitation to Lyanna to join his secret circle, which she accepts and formally joins Rhaegar and his group of friends by running off with them at Harrenhal.  Brandon reacts to her disappearance as an abduction by Rhaegar (perhaps sparked by the symbolism of the crown of blue roses), and he rides off to King’s Landing to demand Lyanna’s return.

The Rebellion is sparked thanks to Aerys actions, and Rhaegar regrets his decision not to reveal his concerns and plans for the Long Night to the other Lords through a council.