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UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

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Under the legislation passed last year setting up the framework for Brexit, the PM has to give a progess report to Parliament periodically alongside a rather bland motion that MPs can amend to express their viewpoints. The original motion was basically ‘the House has considered the Prime Minister’s update’ which was amended to be ‘the House has considered the Prime Minister’s update and has decided to hold a series of indicative votes’. So May whipping against the whole motion isn’t that shocking as it contains no real content other than the amendment she doesn’t want.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Philokles said:

Under the legislation passed last year setting up the framework for Brexit, the PM has to give a progess report to Parliament periodically alongside a rather bland motion that MPs can amend to express their viewpoints. The original motion was basically ‘the House has considered the Prime Minister’s update’ which was amended to be ‘the House has considered the Prime Minister’s update and has decided to hold a series of indicative votes’. So May whipping against the whole motion isn’t that shocking as it contains no real content other than the amendment she doesn’t want.

Thank you - no wonder I was confused.

 

The May controlled indicative votes just have been a sop she was offering to stop Tories voting for Letwin

Edited by Which Tyler

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Well, quite the twist. :)

I was convinced that No Deal was really the only possibility here, but with the indicative votes... who knows. 

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4 hours ago, Vaith said:

Well, quite the twist. :)

I was convinced that No Deal was really the only possibility here, but with the indicative votes... who knows. 

I'm convinced that any other option beyond No-deal and May's deal is a pipe-dream at this point.

May has already said she's willing to consider alternative options provided they're not:

- Revoking A50.

- A second referendum.

- A customs union/common market 2.0 option.

- Any other constructive solution you can think of.

If a clear majority for anything does emerge from indicative votes (not likely, but we live in interesting times), Theresa May will just say that that option doesn't reflect the will of the people as expressed in the referendum, would imply requesting a longer extension and participating in the EU election, which the voters wouldn't understand or what-have-you... and that she's not willing to implement it. At that point, Parliament can do nothing about it other than throw non-binding amendments and motions at May (which she will simply ignore).

The only chance of any solution other than May's deal or No deal happening would be someone calling a vote of no confidence on May, getting it moved in Parliament before the 12th of April, winning it on a platform of a specific solution to Brexit, and personally requesting an extension from the EU (who would be loathe to negotiate with anyone who wasn't a PM... but in this specific instance, and after the VONC went through, just might). The chances of this happening are so close to nil it isn't really worth considering.

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1 hour ago, Mentat said:

The only chance of any solution other than May's deal or No deal happening would be someone calling a vote of no confidence on May, getting it moved in Parliament before the 12th of April, winning it on a platform of a specific solution to Brexit, and personally requesting an extension from the EU (who would be loathe to negotiate with anyone who wasn't a PM... but in this specific instance, and after the VONC went through, just might). The chances of this happening are so close to nil it isn't really worth considering.

You say the chances are close to nil ... but what other feasible options are there?

I think it's either your suggestion or taking the most popular-with-Parliament indicative votes and putting them to the people in a second referendum.

Or the Queen intervenes.  Where is the Queen anyway?

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11 hours ago, Mosi Mynn said:

What is happening with the Lib Dems?  Have they got a new leader yet?

They should seize this opportunity.  We would forgive them the whole coalition faux pas if they acted as proper politicians - thus making them stand out from the crowd.

You know, we give the Tories and Labour pelters for their pathetic performances during this entire shitshow, but we do forget to also give the Lib Dems their share of abuse for their surrender to obscurity at the same time.

Lib Dem supporters used to pin their hopes on either policy or personality to make the breakthrough: distinguishing themselves from the major parties by adopting distinctive centre-ground policies or by having a popular leader. Well, they wound up in a situation where they were the only UK-wide party* supporting a view held by at least 48% of the country, while having elected the person they really wanted as leader, who had good favourability ratings with the public.

And then they vanished without a trace. Nice job, guys.

*the Green party and the Scottish Green party are two different parties.

13 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

Or the Queen intervenes.  Where is the Queen anyway?

In one of her many luxurious taxpayer-funded homes, presumably.

Again, the Queen is never, ever going to publicly intervene in any political matter except if it threatens her family's position as head of state. The country could be literally consumed by riots and that would not change. Her constitutional power is wholly theoretical: it's only preserved by never exercising it under any circumstances. This arrangement allows the UK PM to effectively co-opt the political powers of the head of state as well as the head of the executive, while keeping Liz and her brood comfortable in their privilege. It's pointless, even in jest, to ask when the Queen will step in. The answer is never. 

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I'm pretty sure if any member of the royal family took any steps to intervene in the politics of the country then they would end up being known as the person to bring an end to the British Monarchy. It only exists right now because it's so ceremonial and powerless. 

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5 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Yes can we please stop bringing up the queen intervening? Its pointless and not especially witty either

Not really trying to be witty.  Please feel free to ignore any comments I make that you find pointless!

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22 minutes ago, mormont said:

You know, we give the Tories and Labour pelters for their pathetic performances during this entire shitshow, but we do forget to also give the Lib Dems their share of abuse for their surrender to obscurity at the same time.

Lib Dem supporters used to pin their hopes on either policy or personality to make the breakthrough: distinguishing themselves from the major parties by adopting distinctive centre-ground policies or by having a popular leader. Well, they wound up in a situation where they were the only UK-wide party* supporting a view held by at least 48% of the country, while having elected the person they really wanted as leader, who had good favourability ratings with the public.

And then they vanished without a trace. Nice job, guys.

*the Green party and the Scottish Green party are two different parties.

I almost forgot about the other parties.  We need a coalition for Remain to at least put across the arguments the public need to hear.

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Posted (edited)

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Grand Wizard* of the ERG, has this morning conceded that it is 'very, very difficult' to see Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

Quote

From a Eurosceptic point of view, from the point of view of somebody in my position, as one of the minority of MPs who really want to leave, we have to recognise that what we want and what we can deliver is not necessarily the same because of our lack of numbers. The ERG and other Eurosceptics in parliament cannot win any vote on our own ...

The prime minister does not want to leave without a deal. And the cabinet does not want to leave without a deal. And if parliament does not want to leave without a deal, it is therefore very, very difficult to see who you get to leaving without a deal, even though that is the law of the land.

* WTF are these idiots thinking? This has to be intentional, right?

Edited by Spockydog

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2 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

You say the chances are close to nil ... but what other feasible options are there?

As I said, either Parliament holding its collective nose and passing May's deal or crashing out of the EU without a deal on the 12th of April.

4 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I think it's either your suggestion or taking the most popular-with-Parliament indicative votes and putting them to the people in a second referendum.

As long as Theresa May is PM I do not believe there will be a second referendum, regardless of what indicative votes may say (she has made this abundantly clear, and despite precedent I think this might be the one issue where she sticks to her guns).

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11 minutes ago, Mentat said:

As long as Theresa May is PM I do not believe there will be a second referendum, regardless of what indicative votes may say (she has made this abundantly clear, and despite precedent I think this might be the one issue where she sticks to her guns).

Be fair - she's also stuck to her guns that there's no such thing as a good immigrant

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26 minutes ago, Mentat said:

As long as Theresa May is PM I do not believe there will be a second referendum, regardless of what indicative votes may say (she has made this abundantly clear, and despite precedent I think this might be the one issue where she sticks to her guns).

If there's actually a majority of Parliament supporting a positive solution (perhaps a big ask) I doubt she'll stay as Prime Minister. The only reason she still has the job is that nobody has come up with a viable alternative. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

If there's actually a majority of Parliament supporting a positive solution (perhaps a big ask) I doubt she'll stay as Prime Minister. The only reason she still has the job is that nobody has come up with a viable alternative. 

Partly because nobody's been allowed to try.

Partly because there can be no deal that's better than our existing one.

Partly because parliament, like the entire country; is split into too many camps, and too firmly entrenched on those camps, to permit a straight majority.

Edited by Which Tyler

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12 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

If there's actually a majority of Parliament supporting a positive solution (perhaps a big ask) I doubt she'll stay as Prime Minister. The only reason she still has the job is that nobody has come up with a viable alternative. 

I don't think there is a viable alternative tbh. The rift between leavers and remainers is too deep. So called 'soft options' don't really deliver on Brexit in any meaningful sense, and harder options scare the life out of anyone even slightly remainy.

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Just now, ljkeane said:

If there's actually a majority of Parliament supporting a positive solution (perhaps a big ask) I doubt she'll stay as Prime Minister. The only reason she still has the job is that nobody has come up with a viable alternative. 

I think @Mentat is absolutely 100% correct with what he wrote. 

Now then, question for you, who is going to topple May? She won't be resigning on her own. You will have to drag her out of number 10, while she is kicking and screaming and presumably clutching her nails deep into the door frame.

Her party can't remove until the end of the year. That leaves a vote of no confidence.

And again Mentat is on the money.

3 hours ago, Mentat said:

The only chance of any solution other than May's deal or No deal happening would be someone calling a vote of no confidence on May, getting it moved in Parliament before the 12th of April, winning it on a platform of a specific solution to Brexit, and personally requesting an extension from the EU (who would be loathe to negotiate with anyone who wasn't a PM... but in this specific instance, and after the VONC went through, just might). The chances of this happening are so close to nil it isn't really worth considering.

The Tories will never ever in a milion years back Corbyn as new PM (and frankly speaking he doesn't deserve any backing whatsoever), conversely I don't see Labour backing a Tory caretaker PM. We can safely eliminate SNP MPs as candidates. That leaves some random LibDem MP, Caroline Lucas (actually deserving, but not gonna happen), or somebody from the TIGers. Now then, who thinks enough Labour MPs (namely the frontbench) is gonna vote for Umunna after the bearded manchild couldn't even bear to be in the same room with him? PM Anna Soubry? I think she has burned quite a few bridges behind her when she left the Tories, and she has that Cameronite label attached to her, so hard to see her getting sufficient votes from Labour.

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And now after months of stating that May's deal is so bad she should be executed for treason resign, JRM is now saying he will support it. What an enormous, self-serving twazzock that man really is. 

 

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54 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

....

Now then, question for you, who is going to topple May? She won't be resigning on her own. You will have to drag her out of number 10, while she is kicking and screaming and presumably clutching her nails deep into the door frame.

Her party can't remove until the end of the year. That leaves a vote of no confidence.

And again Mentat is on the money.

The Tories will never ever in a milion years back Corbyn as new PM (and frankly speaking he doesn't deserve any backing whatsoever), conversely I don't see Labour backing a Tory caretaker PM. We can safely eliminate SNP MPs as candidates. That leaves some random LibDem MP, Caroline Lucas (actually deserving, but not gonna happen), or somebody from the TIGers. Now then, who thinks enough Labour MPs (namely the frontbench) is gonna vote for Umunna after the bearded manchild couldn't even bear to be in the same room with him? PM Anna Soubry? I think she has burned quite a few bridges behind her when she left the Tories, and she has that Cameronite label attached to her, so hard to see her getting sufficient votes from Labour.

Wow.  That is a quite an indictment of our political system.  We have no leaders.

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