UK Politics: The Malice in the Chalice held by the Pfeffel with the Piffle is the Brexit that is true.

[A wilding]

With the empty posturing removed:

2 hours ago, Safiya said:

My hypothesis is based on the constituency boundaries which were developed to give the wealthy more power, the wealthy landowners had the vote when the poor were completely disenfranchised, so there were more MPs in wealthier areas than poorer ones.

It was a estimate, as this is cutting edge research I worked it out to be 10 as an estimate.  If it's 20 years it's still 40+ years of Tory government based on the constituencies which were formed when the poor didn't even have the vote but were served by an MP.

The constituency boundaries need to be redrawn, I have given the factual effect of having constituencies created when the poor did not have vote and so far fewer MPs to serve the much less concentration of rich people.

This is just factual, we would by default be much nearer to a PR system by just taking this step.  By the Tories would never do this but they would review the boundaries even more into their favour.

Yes, in the nineteenth century constituencies were a joke, but then universal suffrage happened after World War I, and no one is completely disenfranchised any more. And, as said already, both the Tories and Labour benefit from the FPTP system, which is presumably why both the Tories and Corbyn's Labour continue to support it.

As for the idea that the current boundaries disproportionally favour the rich over the poor by having more MPs in rich areas, I did five minutes of research on Wikipedia:

English constituencies with the largest number of voters (who are thus relatively disenfranchised):

• Isle of Wight (Conservative)
• North West Cambridgeshire (Conservative)
• Bristol West (Labour)
• Milton Keynes South (Conservative)
• Sleaford and North Hykeham (Conservative)

English constituencies with the smallest number of voters (who are thus unfairly privileged):

• Northampton North (Conservative)
• Preston (Labour)
• Wirral South (Labour)
• Newcastle upon Tyne Central (Labour)
• Wirral West (Labour)

You could take this further, but it does not look not a very convincing case against the rich (and indeed the current boundaries are generally considered to somewhat favour Labour).

@A Horse Named Stranger: I am still feeding as I am not quite convinced of trollness. Just immature, and with convictions that have not been logically tested.

[Werthead]

Current reports that the government is planning a snap general election. They have also been trying to scare off potential rebels by saying that a vote of no confidence, even if won, would be taken as a rejection of the government's negotiating stance and they will cease negotiating and go for a No Deal Brexit automatically, although this is a weird stance as you'd imagine that would embolden waverers to join the rebels because that's removed their fallback hope that Boris may pull off a deal with the EU at the 11th hour.

Cabinet meeting at 5pm, followed by Boris addressing all Conservative MPs in the No. 10 garden at 6pm. A game is afoot.

[Maltaran]

#BrendafromBristol

[Werthead]

Apparently Boris's message will be that anyone who votes against the government or abstains on Brexit or VONC will have the whip withdrawn and be deselected immediately.

I mean, that's probably just going to result in multiple Tory MPs defecting to the LibDems and CUK or whatever they're called this week, immediately removing the Conservative majority and collapsing the government.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

19 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

As for Boris using the UK's veto on our own extension, I'm pretty sure Theresa had to wait outside the room whilst they debated previous extensions. He'd have to re-try Farage's tactic from March, and try to convince the French / Italians / Austrians to refuse the extension.

Yes, she had to wait outside and wait for what the EU27 could agree wrt an extension.

However the UK is as of now still a fully (albeit dysfunctional) member state. So of course the UK still has and ahd its veto right. Of course May did not use the UK's veto on the extension. Because it's crazy. I mean the UK goes to an EU summit makes a request, that is granted, and that vetos its own request. Like I said it's crazy. But you are goverend by the crazy party (now).

[Werthead]

One suggestion that Boris may be thinking of holding an election, getting a hung Parliament, coalition with the LibDems on the basis of promising Ref3, hoping that Remain wins (as most polls now more convincingly say is the case on about 53%) and then kicking it into the long grass for 15+ years.

I don't think this is likely, mainly because the LibDems were so badly burned by their last coalition they'd be idiots to agree to it again, and there's no way Boris could retreat from his current or past rhetoric so would have to campaign hell-for-leather to Leave, and could well win again with a marginal victory and just be back where we are now.

[Chaircat Meow]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

One suggestion that Boris may be thinking of holding an election, getting a hung Parliament, coalition with the LibDems on the basis of promising Ref3, hoping that Remain wins (as most polls now more convincingly say is the case on about 53%) and then kicking it into the long grass for 15+ years.

I don't think this is likely, mainly because the LibDems were so badly burned by their last coalition they'd be idiots to agree to it again, and there's no way Boris could retreat from his current or past rhetoric so would have to campaign hell-for-leather to Leave, and could well win again with a marginal victory and just be back where we are now.

The plan looks to be go for a pre-Brexit election if the rebels prevail this week. This is a risk, but an election in the middle of no-deal Brexit is also a risk (from Boris's point of view). The polls look reasonable for Boris now, he has racked up a good lead over Labour but the danger is Farage will assume an election before 31 October is actually designed to facilitate a deal and will try and hit Johnson hard during the campaign getting us a hung Parliament (I don't think Labour can win). 

edit: btw this thread title is truly awful can't we get it changed? Horse should not be in charge of this stuff. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

29 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

edit: btw this thread title is truly awful can't we get it changed? Horse should not be in charge of this stuff. 

You like really hurt my feelings, now. :(

I admit, I might have tried a bit too hard get that Danny Kaye theme going, as you put the jester in charge. As always, make a suggestion. Otherwise deal with it: Awful title for awful times.

[Which Tyler]

I think I MIGHT have worked out the play.

He'll deselect the 21 / 24 rebel conservative MPs (whether or not he has that authority) and NOT replace them. Put up no candidate (we couldn't find and vet anyone at such short notice), or at best a joke, and cede those seats to Farage with an understanding that the BnP concentrate their campaigning in those 21 / 24 seats and form a coalition if necessary.

 

 

If BJ offers a GE straight away - to avoid a law requiring a delay or no deal to be taken off the table - should Corbyn take it? (it'd need 2/3 of parliament to approve it).

Corbyn has spent the last 3 years wanting a GE, and demanding a GE - so he'd be a hypocrit to reject

But...

That would imply that Cummings thinks the proposed law could succeed; and that he doesn't want it - it's rarely a good idea to do what your enemay wants you to do.

Would Corbyn be beter placed to get that proposed law through and enacted, and THEN call the VOTC, forcing a GE?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

You almost got to Blair's understanding of the situation there.

Blair: GE is the Elephant trap. The GE scheme relies on it being a GE on two things. Namely Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson would never ever win a GE on a no-deal Brexit on itself, but paired with the public opinion on Corbyn and the polling connected to it, this might work. So it boils down to what outcome is less desirable for the British public, no deal or PM Corbyn. Blair then went on to some extent to explain that Brexit is pretty much identity politics, of what the country would/should be. An open country (remain) or not (leave).

However from Corbyn's perspective, he is not a problem. So it's just about Brexit. The Public will come to love him just as much, as our chaircat will come to love the thread title (ok, I am falling out of character here, as I admit it might not be the most awesomest of thread titles in the history of thread titles, and I am willing step aside/change it). So will Corbyn stand aside? Probably not, he will run straight for the GE. Like you said, he has to.

[Which Tyler]

So if tomorrow's bill passes he won't abide by it, but doesn't say how he'll side-step it

[Werthead]

Yup, it looks like Johnson completely bottled it at the last moment (as he generally does), rolling back on the rhetoric and basically just asking for people not to screw him over as he wants to screw the country over.

One of the benefits of the Labour Party being on "war footing" for another election for two years straight is that they have media strategies worked out, so when the talk of an election started swirling this morning they started rolling out bullish statements on fighting a general election, holding a shadow cabinet war council etc. Foolishly or not, Corbyn does not fear a general election and that confidence counts for a lot (the LibDems, buoyed by the polls, are also in a similarly confidence mood for a GE). OTOH, the Tories are looking like a divided, rudderless shower of shit at the moment and genuinely have no idea how a GE would unfold for them.

[Which Tyler]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

the Tories are looking like a divided, rudderless shower of shit at the moment and genuinely have no idea how a GE would unfold for them.

I think I may have an idea as to why the Tory party look that way

[Chaircat Meow]

57 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yup, it looks like Johnson completely bottled it at the last moment (as he generally does), rolling back on the rhetoric and basically just asking for people not to screw him over as he wants to screw the country over.

One of the benefits of the Labour Party being on "war footing" for another election for two years straight is that they have media strategies worked out, so when the talk of an election started swirling this morning they started rolling out bullish statements on fighting a general election, holding a shadow cabinet war council etc. Foolishly or not, Corbyn does not fear a general election and that confidence counts for a lot (the LibDems, buoyed by the polls, are also in a similarly confidence mood for a GE). OTOH, the Tories are looking like a divided, rudderless shower of shit at the moment and genuinely have no idea how a GE would unfold for them.

About half of the Labour party collectively crapped itself at the thought of an election, which given they are 5-10 points behind in the polls is understandable. I don't think the Tories look rudderless compared to them at all. 

[SeanF]

My impression is that Johnson certainly wants an election. 

[Werthead]

32 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

About half of the Labour party collectively crapped itself at the thought of an election, which given they are 5-10 points behind in the polls is understandable. I don't think the Tories look rudderless compared to them at all. 

So less than half the lead shown by the polling on the eve of the 2017 election (which was completely wrong and resulted in the biggest swing to Labour since WWII). I would not be too concerned about that if I was JC at the moment, especially if the goal is no longer outright victory but enough to achieve coalition status with the LibDems and SNP, who are both polling better than in 2017 as well.

If you don't think the Tories look rudderless and divided at the moment, I'd hate to think what they'd have to be doing to convince you of that. Actively knifing one another in the House chamber? They're threatening a significant swathe of their number with deselection and sacking. Although does it only count as showing a party as being divided when it's Labour doing it?

 

Quote

 

My impression is that Johnson certainly wants an election.

 

Johnson wants an election he can win. This one would be far too touch and go for his liking, and he'll only go for it if he has no choice.

[Chaircat Meow]

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

So less than half the lead shown by the polling on the eve of the 2017 election (which was completely wrong and resulted in the biggest swing to Labour since WWII). I would not be too concerned about that if I was JC at the moment, especially if the goal is no longer outright victory but enough to achieve coalition status with the LibDems and SNP, who are both polling better than in 2017 as well.

If you don't think the Tories look rudderless and divided at the moment, I'd hate to think what they'd have to be doing to convince you of that. Actively knifing one another in the House chamber? They're threatening a significant swathe of their number with deselection and sacking. Although does it only count as showing a party as being divided when it's Labour doing it? 

You shouldn't assume the campaign will be a rerun of 2017. I think it is doubtful Corbyn will get a big surge again, lightening does not strike twice, although anything is possible. And a coalition with the SNP and the Liberals? Right, we'll see on that, I would not take that Frankenstein's monster of a government for granted. 

Obviously the Tories are in a dreadful mess but Labour are too and the Tories are polling much better, so I remain unsure why any Labour supporter would be confident at the moment. 

If we are indeed to be saved from Brexit I expect it will be down to Farage going nuts and splitting the Brexit vote. 

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

I think I MIGHT have worked out the play.

He'll deselect the 21 / 24 rebel conservative MPs (whether or not he has that authority) and NOT replace them. Put up no candidate (we couldn't find and vet anyone at such short notice), or at best a joke, and cede those seats to Farage with an understanding that the BnP concentrate their campaigning in those 21 / 24 seats and form a coalition if necessary.

How many of those rebels have constituencies that backed Remain? I would think they should comfortably beat a Brexit Party candidate in a Remain-leaning constituency if they ran again, an official Tory candidate could be more of a challenge.

[The Mother of The Others]

This is intense!   

  It's like England's EU membership is your national Timeshare Vacation deal that you signed an ironclad contract for because the initial salesperson was wearing a low cut blouse and trapped you in a convention room for 3 hours worth of brainwashing before giving you the free prize promised in the newspaper ad for attending the seminar.   And now the UK can't get out of this debacle that looms over the estate.   Will breaking this deal be a historical dealbreaker for the nation's aspirations ?!?!    Or will this much maligned oaf of yours be remembered as a Daenerys type breaker of the chains that were dragging you down into a Euro fate as the EU winds down like a wind-up toy that's... winding down.   

And I trust everyone is laying claim to economic theories that can't be verified because nobody really knows.   Fascinating.  I say give the queen the deciding vote.  Have everyone brief her beforehand so she's good and confused  (meaning that both sides would have a 50/50 chance of being chosen) and just abide by whatever she blurts out in her addled state.  That's the advantage of still having a figurehead, right?  Use it when the rest of government becomes....even more addled.)

Anyway, best of luck.  And someone upthread had it right when they said don't let it get as personally polarizing as what the U.S. has, which just feels busted and broken like why bother anymore.  And it didn't happen because of one party, person, or event, but because we let the bickering go too far , institutionalized it so potently that it infected our brains and soured the goodness of the thing that had formerly been 'one people, under g*d, indivisible.'

[A Horse Named Stranger]

@williamjm

That's a bit too simplistic imho. And basically the same flawed logic that has lead Labour astray with their chase after those Northern seats.

Try to think of the vote shares as Venn-Diagrams. That big overlap is (very likely) between the Tory votes and leave votes (not the remain votes, they are mostly to be found at other parties). If the Tories in question were to survive that, they'd need to get involved into a remain pact with LibDems, ChUK (too lazy to check what they are currently called), Greens, and possibly one of the local parties and if possible with Labour. That's what brought that seat in the latest by-election in Wales. Tories and NuKIP took votes off each other in sufficent numbers, and the remain parties fielded one clear candidate, with Labour being widely ignored by voters.

FWIW I think this presumably another factor in why Davidson stepped down as Tory leader in Scotland, because her remain views arguably do not represent the views of Scottish Tory voters.