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Alyn Oakenfist

TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

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On 1/7/2020 at 3:46 PM, Platypus Rex said:

Well then, I can't see what you were trying to say at all.  But I don't think WOW will be out this year.  I will be happy to be surprised.

The book didn't come out all the years he did give an update about progress.
The book didn't come out all the years he didn't give an update about progres.
Whether he gives an update or not, it doesn't mean shit really. 

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14 minutes ago, Jekse said:

The book didn't come out all the years he did give an update about progress.
The book didn't come out all the years he didn't give an update about progres.
Whether he gives an update or not, it doesn't mean shit really. 

Especially if we take Martin’s words on the matter: there will be no updates, no progress reports, and when it’s done completion will be announced on NaB first (paraphrasing).

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1 hour ago, Jekse said:

The book didn't come out all the years he did give an update about progress.
The book didn't come out all the years he didn't give an update about progres.

Whether he gives an update or not, it doesn't mean shit really. 

No news certainly did not happen to not good news in those cases, then.  Conversely, we had plenty of warning for A FEAST FOR CROWS and A DANCE WITH DRAGONS.

If you want to speculate that no news is good news THIS time, be my guest.  Like I said, maybe he has changed his ways.  I'm just guessing that he has not changed his ways that much.

Not sure what you want from me here.  What are you trying to prove?

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Especially if we take Martin’s words on the matter: there will be no updates, no progress reports, and when it’s done completion will be announced on NaB first (paraphrasing).

I'm guessing this paraphrase might not be 100% accurate.  But even so, he said similar things IIRC about ADWD.  But I doubt he has said anything (re ADWD or TWOW) that can be construed as a binding promise not to say whatever he wants whenever he might choose to say it. 

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1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

No news certainly did not happen to not good news in those cases, then.

The point, and this is something folks really need to bear in mind, is not that no news is good news or that no news is bad news. The point is that no news is no news.

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35 minutes ago, mormont said:

The point, and this is something folks really need to bear in mind, is not that no news is good news or that no news is bad news. The point is that no news is no news.

Well sure.  No news is not bad news BY DEFINITION.  It obviously depends on the situation.  In this case, I think, based on history, that we'll have substantially more warning than a publication-date announcement and a publication 3 months later.  But if events prove me wrong, I will be proven wrong.  As I said, I don't expect TWOW this year, but I will be happy to be surprised.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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32 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Well sure.  No news is not bad news BY DEFINITION.  It obviously depends on the situation.  In this case, I think, based on history, that we'll have substantially more warning than a publication-date announcement and a publication 3 months later.  But if events prove me wrong, I will be proven wrong.  As I said, I don't expect TWOW this year, but I will be happy to be surprised.

Actually, if you are looking, there are warnings. 

This for instance: 

"Relatively Near Future"

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5 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Actually, if you are looking, there are warnings. "Relatively Near Future"

We know from history that a "hope" to finish the book in year, or 6 months, is not a meaningful indication of anything.  A "hope" to finish the book in the "relatively near future" is even less meaningful.  At this point, a release in 2021, or even later, would be the "relatively near future," considering how long we've been waiting so far.

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2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

 

I'm guessing this paraphrase might not be 100% accurate. 

If it was “100% accurate” I wouldn’t say I was paraphrasing; it would be a quote, and between quotation marks. 

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

But even so, he said similar things IIRC about ADWD.  But I doubt he has said anything (re ADWD or TWOW) that can be construed as a binding promise not to say whatever he wants whenever he might choose to say it. 

No. It was because of all the wrong predictions and progress reports for ADwD that were off because of rewriting or shuffling the order of the chapters or whatever else that he said that, for TWoW, he wouldn’t give updates etc. 

And I have no idea what you mean by “binding promise”. He said he would do updates and progress resports, and that he would announce completion on NaB first. And so far he has stuck to what he said. Can he change his mind in the future? Of course he can. 

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6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

If it was “100% accurate” I wouldn’t say I was paraphrasing; it would be a quote, and between quotation marks. 

A paraphrase may be 100% accurate in substance.   I did not mean the precise wording.

Quote

And I have no idea what you mean by “binding promise”. He said he would do updates and progress reports, and that he would announce completion on NaB first. And so far he has stuck to what he said. Can he change his mind in the future? Of course he can. 

He can, and I suspect he will.   Since he has not chosen to do so yet, I suspect TWOW is still more than a year away.  And again, I will be happy to be surprised.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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6 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

A paraphrase may be 100% accurate in substance.   I did not mean the precise wording.

He can, and I suspect he will.   Since he has not chosen to do so yet, I suspect TWOW is still more than a year away.  And again, I will be happy to be surprised.

But we did not get any progress on F&B, just NaB with a release date. 

TWOW could very well be treated the same way. 

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4 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

But we did not get any progress on F&B, just NaB with a release date. 

TWOW could very well be treated the same way. 

We did indeed get a progress report on F&B.  IIRC, GRRM boasted that he had written 300,000 words, which is roughly the equivalent of 1,100 manuscript pages, long before the release date announcement, and the boast of 250,000 words dates from years earlier.  Part of this material was eventually polished up and released as F&B.  

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I'd be surprised if the book comes out this year.  GRRM has said several times that he doesn't write when travelling and he had a busy year last year with other projects and travelling.

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On 1/13/2020 at 12:43 AM, Ser Gareth said:

I'd be surprised if the book comes out this year.  GRRM has said several times that he doesn't write when travelling and he had a busy year last year with other projects and travelling.

I'm sure that "relatively near future" means within the next 10-15 years. B) 

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On 1/16/2020 at 3:15 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I'm sure that "relatively near future" means within the next 10-15 years. B) 

I'm more on the "never" boat these days.  

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If July still possible, when is the latest we should hear from GRRM. No news from him for a long while now (I really hope he's almost done).

ADWD was announced early march for a July release. If we follow the same pattern that's 20 days or so away. Is hope still possible? 

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4 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

If July still possible, when is the latest we should hear from GRRM. No news from him for a long while now (I really hope he's almost done).

ADWD was announced early march for a July release. If we follow the same pattern that's 20 days or so away. Is hope still possible? 

If you want to stretch things and take into account some technological evolution I would say he has until the end of April. 

So at most 2 months and something... 

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I don't think he's going to hit that New Zealand deadline, that would mean he's finished with the book in 2 months, and I have not seen anything to suggest he's that close.  Not that I care that much at this point.

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