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M-m-m-my Corona! NCOVID-19 #5

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I know people want to hope for the best, but my backgrounds are in political science and psychology, and I have little faith that people en masse will work together to get through this. And we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg in the West.

Please don't blame your "backgrounds in political science and psychology" for your pessimism. There are others of us on this board who have backgrounds in one or the other of those subjects who don't have your seeming lack of faith in people's ability to get through this without a complete collapse of society. I think things are going to be bad, but in many ways I am pleasantly surprised at how many people are taking this seriously. 

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8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Food supply lines will probably collapse.

There's really no reason to think this is likely to happen even in the worst case forecasts for how this might go. Rein it in a little bit.

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People are talking as if this is the black death or something. Most of the people infected don't even have symptoms.

We urgently need to protect the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, but I don't see how the virus brings about the societal collapse some are predicting.

 

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China has got this well under control zero cases now from well over a hundred. As long as proper isolation is enforced the virus can't spread. One thing that make make it harder in the US is everywhere in China has a "gate" which creates natural checkpoints everyone lives in apartments so the building security check my temperature each time I exit and enter, if I had a fever presumably I've be tested. 

This thing can be handled with proper measures. Though Americans living in spread out suburbs will make it harder to check everyone's temperature constantly and keep stuff locked down.

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I wouldn't necessarily trust the Chinese numbers. I'm sure things are getting better (mass deaths would be too hard to hide even for that government), but they're desperate for a PR win and are clamping down harder than ever on the free press (see all the US reporters who got credentials revoked yesterday).

Also, I'm quite pessimistic as well, but even I don't think we're going to see societal collapse from this. I do think we're going to end up with way more deaths than we should though, almost entirely because of that fucking shithead in the WH. Turns out that, even though the Defense Protection Act was activated, they aren't actually doing anything with it yet (Trump even had a line at the press conference today about how the federal government "wasn't a shipping company" and that governors should do more. That fuck). It's just fucking insane incompetence over and over again.

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Our dear Indira Varma is the latest to have succumbed to the covid 19. She's saying it's pretty miserable.

Wishes for fast recovery to her and all who have been afflicted from this terrible pandemic.

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24 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

There's really no reason to think this is likely to happen even in the worst case forecasts for how this might go. Rein it in a little bit.

Exactly, when people talk like this they just cause panic and panic bought short term shortages. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Reny of Storms End said:

Exactly, when people talk like this they just cause panic and panic bought short term shortages. 

So, don’t plan for the worst hope for the best?  That’s panicking?

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So, don’t plan for the worst hope for the best?  That’s panicking?

Yes, it's panicking. Because you're not planning for the worst likely outcome - you're planning for some bizarre The Road McCarthyesque grimdark fantasy. And that actually hastens problems. That leads to overbuying at the grocery store, of not trusting others, of mistrusting government and people who can help. And it makes you less likely to help as well.

There's no sign that supply chains are going to stop. There's no sign that agriculture - which is one of the most socially distant things around - is going to be particularly impacted. While it is infectious, it isn't insanely so, and based on actual data like in South Korea and China we can see what happens with sane, rational, science-based treatment and control plans. 

We aren't going to get back to 'normal' for 18 months - until the  vaccine is widely ready. But that doesn't mean the end of the  fucking world.

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33 minutes ago, Darryk said:

People are talking as if this is the black death or something. Most of the people infected don't even have symptoms.

We urgently need to protect the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, but I don't see how the virus brings about the societal collapse some are predicting.

 

the virus doesn't, up to 18 months of nobody getting paid might though. 

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So many rumours of London going into "lockdown" flying about today. I don't know if they've seen the trains but it's been in lockdown for a few years now..

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I find myself really agreeing with both Fez and Kalbear.

Things are going to be very bad. Much of this is due to the incompetence of the federal government under Trump. But many of the governors are actually "doing more" than they should have to. Here in Nebraska Pete RIcketts (who I still think is more incompetent than the average governor) is doing better than Trump. He suspended some trucking regulations that were making it harder to quickly resupply stores that had had runs on TP and other items, and this really did help. 

It would be completely wrong to be Pollyannish and not steel oneself for major problems, But as Kalbear says, expecting a "grimdark fantasy" really doesn't contribute to being able to figure out how to deal with those problems any better than being Pollyanna would.

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50 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Please don't blame your "backgrounds in political science and psychology" for your pessimism. There are others of us on this board who have backgrounds in one or the other of those subjects who don't have your seeming lack of faith in people's ability to get through this without a complete collapse of society. I think things are going to be bad, but in many ways I am pleasantly surprised at how many people are taking this seriously. 

Why would I not cite my educational background or the fact that I work at a hospital and can see the sweeping pessimism internally? That makes no sense.

And I am not seeing people taking it seriously. I’m seeing the media take it seriously, but tell that to the kids party on South Beach. Or better yet, to our managers, who yesterday led a large meeting about how we need to stay six feet apart from no another and proceeded to talk face to face a foot away from one another.

I am not trying to be an alarmist, you should know from our long interactions that I’m very laid back, but this is getting incredibly serious and recent developments are making things much worse.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Yes, it's panicking. Because you're not planning for the worst likely outcome - you're planning for some bizarre The Road McCarthyesque grimdark fantasy. And that actually hastens problems. That leads to overbuying at the grocery store, of not trusting others, of mistrusting government and people who can help. And it makes you less likely to help as well.

There's no sign that supply chains are going to stop. There's no sign that agriculture - which is one of the most socially distant things around - is going to be particularly impacted. While it is infectious, it isn't insanely so, and based on actual data like in South Korea and China we can see what happens with sane, rational, science-based treatment and control plans. 

We aren't going to get back to 'normal' for 18 months - until the  vaccine is widely ready. But that doesn't mean the end of the  fucking world.

I haven’t overbought.  My local grocery store had bread available.  I bought a loaf.

What businesses can survive 18 months with little or no income?  The job I was supposed to start 3/30 is gone because the business has no income right now.  We’ev got to get to some degree of economic normalcy.  We cannot survive like this (everyone holed up in our homes) for 18 months.

 

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I haven’t overbought.  My local grocery store had bread available.  I bought a loaf.

What businesses can survive 18 months with little or no income?  The job I was supposed to start 3/30 is gone because the business has no income right now.  We got to get to some degree of economic normalcy.  We cannot survive like this (everyone holed up in our homes) for 18 months.

 

I think this is an absolute worst case scenario for what it would take to contain the virus and that if it really were to come to that (unlikely), the difficult choice would have to be made to let the virus spread rather than endure an unprecedented global depression.

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2 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

I think this is an absolute worst case scenario for what it would take to contain the virus and that if it really were to come to that (unlikely), the difficult choice would have to be made to let the virus spread rather than endure an unprecedented global depression.

Even 4 months like this will be too much for most small, medium, even some large businesses.  This is not sustainable.

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We wouldn't have had to hole up for 18 months or at all, even, if any of this if the country were in a state of wellness instead being a sick country.  This is both emblematic and metaphorical, and alas, also physical.  For decades the national policies have been to equate crisis = health and medical care.  That is no policy at all except to enrich insurance hospital corporate moguls.

The constant argument over health care for all / single payer / MC4A while conditions from the homeless to the mentally ill, for the poor and catastrophically ill have increased and gotten worse or the nation exponentially,  is the huge symptom and consequence of this crisis - health and medical care.

 

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7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What businesses can survive 18 months with little or no income?  The job I was supposed to start 3/30 is gone because the business has no income right now.  We’ev got to get to some degree of economic normalcy.  We cannot survive like this (everyone holed up in our homes) for 18 months.

The worst case scenario is that we'll be holed up for 2-3 months at max. The best case is that we're holed up for a few months, we have some areas that might need to quarantine depending on local outbreaks, and the rest of the country and the world goes on. Why is the worst case only 2-3 months? That represents us not doing much of anything to stop it and results in massive casualties, followed by it being basically done. 

But again, we've already seen what 'success' looks like. South Korea is not stopping all business. South Korea isn't locking down their entire nation. Hell, Italy isn't either, and they've got it MUCH worse than we do. 

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And I am not seeing people taking it seriously. I’m seeing the media take it seriously, but tell that to the kids party on South Beach. Or better yet, to our managers, who yesterday led a large meeting about how we need to stay six feet apart from no another and proceeded to talk face to face a foot away from one another.

I am not trying to be an alarmist, you should know from our long interactions that I’m very laid back, but this is getting incredibly serious and recent developments are making things much worse.

I agree that people need to take things a LOT more seriously, but simply doing a good job is probably enough for most things. Concerts cancelled, school closures, businesses going remote or doing other work at distance - these things help. They aren't going to be perfect, but just because they are not perfect doesn't mean they won't help. To put this in perspective, again - one person in South Korea caused over 6000 infections, due to going to a major set of gatherings - but take out those gatherings and they have something like 5500 fewer cases. 

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Even 4 months like this will be too much for most small, medium, even some large businesses.  This is not sustainable.

It's not nearly as bad as you think in that way, either. If the government wanted to, it could remove all costs on rents/mortgages/leases/utilties. The businesses could stop running for months and then people could just come back to it. As long as people have enough money for necessities, we can survive and then come back. It would suck, and it would cost a lot of money, but it also means we'll spring back like the Serengeti. 

I will say things are going to be different and it isn't going to be easy for everyone. But it doesn't mean things have to fail into catastrophe. There are solutions - at the local, state, and federal level - that can and will work. 

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Even 4 months like this will be too much for most small, medium, even some large businesses.  This is not sustainable.

Speaking only for the United States, I think we do have the means to keep businesses and individuals afloat over that time frame, and it seems like the political will is there too. 

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