US Politics: coughing for peace is like dying for the economy

[Fragile Bird]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Can't speak for Fox, but I saw a couple of mainstream articles (WaPo was one I think) that said economists/forecasters were expecting between 4 and 5 million.

Last week CNBC kept pointing out Canada had 1.1 M claims so they were predicting the number was going to be a record. I think someone even wondered out loud about 5 M and then said, highly unlikely. I did not pay attention about predictions for this week, except 5M or more was discussed.

[Ran]

9 minutes ago, The Worm's Hole said:

Speaking of disingenuous hand-wringers, I wonder how many of the people who were so incensed by that Access Hollywood tape in 2016 give the first fuck about Tara Reade's allegations against Joe Biden. Any calls for him to step down?

Why? There's an accusation. It's been looked into by all sorts of media. Unfortunately, Reade has not helped her case by leaving an inconsistent accounting over the years of her work for Biden and even of this particular incident. Hopefully the truth will out.

Access Hollywood was a clear-as-day, incontestable record of gross personal attitudes towards women. 

 

 

[Rippounet]

Recent Tweet/Facebook post by the Orange:

Quote

Massive amounts of medical supplies, even hospitals and medical centers, are being delivered directly to states and hospitals by the Federal Government. Some have insatiable appetites & are never satisfied (politics?). Remember, we are a backup for them. The complainers should have been stocked up and ready long before this crisis hit. Other states are thrilled with the job we have done. Sending many Ventilators today, with thousands being built. 51 large cargo planes coming in with medical supplies. Prefer sending directly to hospitals.

"We are a backup for them" ? So it's not the responsibility of the federal government to deal with a pandemic?

Apparently the US has reached the ultimate stage of liberty: even in a crisis the federal government still isn't necessary, it's only a bonus for prepared states.

[Fez]

It's been said a lot already, but it's true, the Trump administration is acting like the Articles of Confederation are in effect rather than the Constitution.

[Larry of the Lawn]

41 minutes ago, Ran said:

Why? There's an accusation. It's been looked into by all sorts of media. Unfortunately, Reade has not helped her case by leaving an inconsistent accounting over the years of her work for Biden and even of this particular incident. Hopefully the truth will out.

Access Hollywood was a clear-as-day, incontestable record of gross personal attitudes towards women. 

 

 

A better comparison would be Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.  Biden's comms people such as Symone Sanders have deleted all their social media posts from the Kavanaugh hearings, probabaly to avoid evidence of the low-hanging fruit variety of hypocrisy.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

It will be like that for weeks. 

Yes, it will. Earlier this week there was a call in to WNYC's Brian Lehrer Show with a NY official of the agency.  Many callers reported this, and that was all anyone could respond -- overwhelmed, keep trying.

For NYers, people from New Jersey and the general region, Brian's show, which is available live streaming, is a good single source, once a day, for information on every issue we are facing in this pandemic.  Obviously they can't deal with every issue in every show. But each day's issues are put up on site, and one can tune in later too -- and I think -- at least there used to be -- transcripts later too.  De Blasio and Cuomo are frequently guests, and take calls. Governor Murphy as well.

https://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Last week CNBC kept pointing out Canada had 1.1 M claims so they were predicting the number was going to be a record. I think someone even wondered out loud about 5 M and then said, highly unlikely. I did not pay attention about predictions for this week, except 5M or more was discussed.

Most estimates I saw during the week were 3-5 M. No one predicted over 6M, that I know of.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

The optimistic outlook would be that that was the last week before the the aid package was passed. And that, with the huge amount of funds now flowing to businesses that agree to maintain payroll, the number of layoffs will slow down dramatically for the next few months. And that the backlog of claimants can get processed more quickly.

OTOH, that relies on that money actually getting out the door quickly. And also, with the expanded UI eligibility, there may be a lot of sole operator businesses and gig workers applying going forward as well. My dad (runs a sole practice law firm) is going on UI now that's he eligible; he only takes assigned cases these days, and with the courts closed in his state he has no work and no income.

Sweet summer child

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

The optimistic outlook would be that that was the last week before the the aid package was passed. And that, with the huge amount of funds now flowing to businesses that agree to maintain payroll, the number of layoffs will slow down dramatically for the next few months. And that the backlog of claimants can get processed more quickly.

OTOH, that relies on that money actually getting out the door quickly. And also, with the expanded UI eligibility, there may be a lot of sole operator businesses and gig workers applying going forward as well. My dad (runs a sole practice law firm) is going on UI now that's he eligible; he only takes assigned cases these days, and with the courts closed in his state he has no work and no income.

Yeah, this is me and probabaly a dozen friends/acquaintances, and two of them were able to get their UI claims through on Monday.  I think it's Saturday that the system is online for 24 hours, going to try again at midnight Friday/Saturday.  I'm worried about answering something 'wrong' and not getting it; my winter job is seasonal but it's a normal w-2 job, bulk of my income is all 1099s.  But the self-employed  'walkthrough' they just put up on the ny labor site is pretty straightforward with a PDF showing you how to fill out the first 6 pages.  Feeling optimistic I can get this straightened out in the next couple weeks.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

16 hours ago, Week said:

I stopped reading after this. I've been clear that Bernie (or ANYONE legitimate) have been my preference to Biden. Thanks for reading.

I wish that Bernie wasn't such a poor communicator, organizer, and coalition-builder. His losses this cycle have exposed his weaknesses. I agree with him, I support his policies, but man he and his campaign fucking let all of us down.

When I wrote it, I hadn't remembered you said you were a Bernie supporters. Trisk's point in response to this is a fair one, and I apologize for being a dick over a disagreement about Biden--and to be clear, that I attacked your beliefs to dismiss your position. You deserve better than that, and it shouldn't take DanteGabriel and Trisk pointing out I'm being a fuck to make me see this. I was just being pissy, and I'm sorry.

[Zorral]

One does remember among others, Gabrielle Dee Giffords -- and that was even, by time these days, a long time ago already, shot in the head, January, 2011.  Why don't people accept facts?

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

43 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

A better comparison would be Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.  Biden's comms people such as Symone Sanders have deleted all their social media posts from the Kavanaugh hearings, probabaly to avoid evidence of the low-hanging fruit variety of hypocrisy.

I agree--this is very similar to Blasey Ford and the women who accused Roy Moore. To say that Reade's accounting is inconsistent over the years is typical gas lighting. As much as evidence says that it's around 2 percent of accusations that are false, it's probably equally true that the vast majority of sexual assault cases have dismissed at some point due to inconsistent memories of the victims. Memory isn't a recorder. We encode information incorrectly all the time.  

[Fez]

49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sweet summer child

Foolish winter child. 

I have family that works in UI (in a well-functioning blue state). If they aren't continuously overwhelmed, they can clear a lot of claimants quickly. Especially in the current situation where there aren't going to lengthy hearings where employers will be arguing that the employee was fired for just cause and shouldn't qualify for UI.

[Week]

15 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

 You deserve better than that, and it shouldn't take DanteGabriel and Trisk pointing out I'm being a fuck to make me see this. I was just being pissy, and I'm sorry.

Hey man, it's cool. I'm no stranger to fuck boi behavior on here too. Appreciate you saying as much. 

[DMC]

Really interesting article on 538 this morning trying to analyze the different "wings" of the Democratic party.  I don't think using thirteen favorability scores on different politicians and organizations is the most rigorous way to go about it - although hats off to creatively using data - but it's very intriguing the author (Shom Mazumder) identified three distinct wings:  progressives, establishment, and what he refers to as "neoliberals."  I think further research could more validly/reliably tease out and reinforce these distinctions.

The other notable finding is among a host of "individual-level" variables, the only two that make it more likely the respondent identifies as socialist at a statistically significant level is being "white" and "male."  The only two statistically significant variables that make respondents less likely to identify as socialist are being "older" and saying "partisan identity is important."

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Really interesting article on 538 this morning trying to analyze the different "wings" of the Democratic party.  I don't think using thirteen favorability scores on different politicians and organizations is the most rigorous way to go about it - although hats off to creatively using data - but it's very intriguing the author (Shom Mazumder) identified three distinct wings:  progressives, establishment, and what he refers to as "neoliberals."  I think further research could more validly/reliably tease out and reinforce these distinctions.

The other notable finding is among a host of "individual-level" variables, the only two that make it more likely the respondent identifies as socialist at a statistically significant level is being "white" and "male."  The only two statistically significant variables that make respondents less likely to identify as socialist are being "older" and saying "partisan identity is important."

I feel like the constant issue with this kind of analysis is that it doesn't tease out why someone might give favorable or unfavorable ratings to someone. Without knowing that, you can start making connections that aren't really there and screw up your assumptions. It's the mistake the 2020 Sanders campaign made about 2016, thinking all his votes were pro-Sanders, when in fact many were just anti-Clinton.

[Fragile Bird]

I just saw this on Facebook. Why did the US government pick $1,200 for the check amount?

Federal minimum wage is $7.25 x 40 hours per week, for 4 weeks = $1,160, rounded up to $1,200.

There you go, minimum wage is enough to live on.

eta: perhaps I should have posted this in my Gallows Humor thread.

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Fez said:

Without knowing that, you can start making connections that aren't really there and screw up your assumptions.

Yeah, like I said, further research - with vastly different variables/items - is definitely required.

[Ran]

50 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I agree--this is very similar to Blasey Ford and the women who accused Roy Moore.

Stories that all main stream media went through exhaustive lengths to investigate before they published information. Salon did a fine piece here discussing why covering this story is not easy. Their own experience included Reade's friend and brother, whom she says she contemporaneously told, being unwilling to talk to them and having to rely on third parties for confirmation of her claims regarding them.

50 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

To say that Reade's accounting is inconsistent over the years is typical gas lighting.

No, it's simply the truth . For example, she has made approximately four different accounts of why she stopped working from Biden -- her husband got a job, then she got a job, then it was because she hated American imperialism, and now that she was fired (or forced to quit) because of what happened. You can understand why media are going to look at things carefully and deliberately rather than rush to tell the story when she has left a complicated trail (including a number of deleted posts) regarding this thing. 

Blasey Ford basically went to the staff of one senator with her story, told it as completely as she could, and that was that. Reporters followed up on the details, including on those she said she told, to build a fuller picture and show whether she had or had not been inconsistent, and if so, what those inconsistencies were.

50 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

As much as evidence says that it's around 2 percent of accusations that are false, it's probably equally true that the vast majority of sexual assault cases have dismissed at some point due to inconsistent memories of the victims. Memory isn't a recorder. We encode information incorrectly all the time.  

This is true. I recommend looking at Amanda Marcotte's piece at Salon above and consider what real journalists are thinking about when they work this story.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There you go, minimum wage is enough to live on.

Minimum wage PLUS FORTY DOLLARS!  The poor could get, like, 2-3 more handles of liquor with those forty dollars.