COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease

[Fez]

Good sounding news on the vaccine front. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Quote

 

The first coronavirus vaccine to be tested in people appears to be safe and able to stimulate an immune response against the virus, its manufacturer, Moderna announced on Monday.

The findings are based on results from the first eight people who each received two doses of the vaccine, starting in March.

Those people, healthy volunteers, made antibodies that were then tested in human cells in the lab, and were able to stop the virus from replicating — the key requirement for an effective vaccine. The levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies matched the levels found in patients who had recovered after contracting the virus in the community.

The company has said that it is proceeding on an accelerated timetable, with the second phase involving 600 people to begin soon, and a third phase to begin in July involving thousands of healthy people. The Food and Drug Administration gave Moderna the go-ahead for the second phase earlier this month.

If those trials go well, a vaccine could become available for widespread use by the end of this year or early 2021, Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer, said in an interview. How many doses might be ready is not clear, but Dr. Zaks said, “We’re doing our best to make it as many millions as possible.”

 

For the more scientifically-minded, Moderna put out a press release with a few more details. https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-positive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

The release is written in a confusing manner for a layperson (in the field), but from what I understand they had 15 patients in 18-55 age group given different levels of doses, and have different kinds of antibody responses from a subset of that cohort. It is promising, but still we'd have to see how it works in a bigger sample (phase 2). I also dont know why 55+ people were not tested, might be some health concerns - but we'd also need to see how the high risk age group responds to this vaccine.

[Corvinus85]

4 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

There's a troublesome story about some sailors (I believe it may have been the aircraft carrier crew that was in the news?) that had the virus then recovered and now are sick again.

What the hell is going on with that? Was it mistaken testing or is this confirmation that we can get the virus repeatedly or what?

A co-worker of my mom's has apparently gotten sick twice. My mom told me her friend tested positive on both occasions she was sick. She also suffers from asthma, so her immune system isn't strong. I wonder if she only got the virus once, but had a period where she got better, and returned to work, though you would think she was tested again before returning to work, and then started feeling sick again.

[Rippounet]

It's clear that people can fall sick twice (though it's not too common, and the second time seems to be milder than the first), but it's still not certain whether these are cases of reinfection or relapse.

It's also troubling that the virus may have been circulating earlier than initially thought... Could there be a link?

[Darzin]

23 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

China Has Quarantined 8,000 People in New COVID-19 Lockdown

https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-has-quarantined-8000-people-in-new-covid-19-lockdown?ref=home

 

Damn that's right near where I am at, I live in Harbin, and our province just announced all current cases cured as well. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

16 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

The difference is that Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay adopted very strict measures early on, while Brazil didn't, and unlike the leaders that were forced to pivot, like Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro has yet refused to admit he made a mistake- probably because he gambled too highly on it blowing over fast and is too proud or afraid of losing face, specially because he thought this was the moment of making an attempt to block criminal investigations around his family and some close allies (which is typical of most recent Brazilian presidents, but none of the others was facing a pandemic) while forcing out his two most popular ministers in no small part because they were more popular than he is.

I have a more cynical take. That man lusts for a dictatorship. And a crisis is a perfect way to establish one. 

Emergency powers are hard to let go of, and people are often all too willing to provide them for a sense of security. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The release is written in a confusing manner for a layperson (in the field), but from what I understand they had 15 patients in 18-55 age group given different levels of doses, and have different kinds of antibody responses from a subset of that cohort. It is promising, but still we'd have to see how it works in a bigger sample (phase 2). I also dont know why 55+ people were not tested, might be some health concerns - but we'd also need to see how the high risk age group responds to this vaccine.

Blood sucking lawyers? 

[williamjm]

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Coronavirus: France fears virus may have spread in October after military games in Wuhan

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-france-fears-virus-may-have-spread-in-october-after-military-games-in-wuhan/news-story/b55680fc3b6a11b8c258317d3454961b

Ok. But if this is the case, why tsunami of patients started to hit the hospitals only early March?

It does definitely sound like something that would be interesting to follow up given the timing and the connection to Wuhan but the symptoms described in the article could just as easily be explained by some flu going around the competitors.

7 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

There's a troublesome story about some sailors (I believe it may have been the aircraft carrier crew that was in the news?) that had the virus then recovered and now are sick again.

What the hell is going on with that? Was it mistaken testing or is this confirmation that we can get the virus repeatedly or what?

Did they have symptoms or was it that they tested positive again? There was a similar story in Korea reported fairly recently where the Korean CDC said they thought positive tests a long time after recovery were due to the tests picking up remnants of dead virus that had remained in the body, but I think those people weren't reporting symptoms.

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The release is written in a confusing manner for a layperson (in the field), but from what I understand they had 15 patients in 18-55 age group given different levels of doses, and have different kinds of antibody responses from a subset of that cohort. It is promising, but still we'd have to see how it works in a bigger sample (phase 2). I also dont know why 55+ people were not tested, might be some health concerns - but we'd also need to see how the high risk age group responds to this vaccine.

The full article says that they are currently enrolling people in older age groups for testing.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

These videos of places reopening can be troubling. Seems like a lot of people are taking it as just going back to being normal. 

[rotting sea cow]

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It's clear that people can fall sick twice (though it's not too common, and the second time seems to be milder than the first), but it's still not certain whether these are cases of reinfection or relapse.

It's also troubling that the virus may have been circulating earlier than initially thought... Could there be a link?

Maybe?

Somewhat related?

Quote

In a side-by-side comparison of evolutionary dynamics between the 2019/2020 SARS-CoV-2 and the 2003 SARS-CoV, we were surprised to find that SARS-CoV-2 resembles SARS-CoV in the late phase of the 2003 epidemic after SARS-CoV had developed several advantageous adaptations for human transmission. Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected. The sudden appearance of a highly infectious SARS-CoV-2 presents a major cause for concern that should motivate stronger international efforts to identify the source and prevent near future re-emergence. Any existing pools of SARS-CoV-2 progenitors would be particularly dangerous if similarly well adapted for human transmission. To look for clues regarding intermediate hosts, we analyze recent key findings relating to how SARS-CoV-2 could have evolved and adapted for human transmission, and examine the environmental samples from the Wuhan Huanan seafood market. Importantly, the market samples are genetically identical to human SARS-CoV-2 isolates and were therefore most likely from human sources. We conclude by describing and advocating for measured and effective approaches implemented in the 2002-2004 SARS outbreaks to identify lingering population(s) of progenitor virus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1

I think this study has been already quoted by different media as evidence that the virus didn't come from the Wuhan seafood market.

From what I gather they argue that the link between already identified bat, pangolin, etc coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 is still missing, as none of these viruses nor a recombination of them could reproduce the characteristic of this virus.

It might well be, it was already circulating and well adapted to human transmission before it got deadlier in Wuhan.

[Fez]

I assume the idea here is that transmission will be reduced while the weather is warmer, and if all the students are gone before Thanksgiving they can avoid the worst of another spike. Doesn't work at all if there's a spike over the summer, but it is an interesting idea.

Seems like it would wreck havoc on the sports teams though.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Fez said:

I assume the idea here is that transmission will be reduced while the weather is warmer, and if all the students are gone before Thanksgiving they can avoid the worst of another spike. Doesn't work at all if there's a spike over the summer, but it is an interesting idea.

Seems like it would wreck havoc on the sports teams though.

In that line of thought, perhaps that's the point, but inversely as to how you're seeing it. There is no way you can say we can have college football while also saying it's not safe enough for the students to attend, from the jump. But if you start it all at the same time, then send the students home quicker while keeping athletics going, the university makes its money, or at least maximizes what they can. 

[Ormond]

27 minutes ago, Fez said:

I assume the idea here is that transmission will be reduced while the weather is warmer, and if all the students are gone before Thanksgiving they can avoid the worst of another spike. Doesn't work at all if there's a spike over the summer, but it is an interesting idea.

Seems like it would wreck havoc on the sports teams though.

I've been told by a friend who works there that Creighton University in Omaha will soon announce a similar plan. 

[Corvinus85]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

In that line of thought, perhaps that's the point, but inversely as to how you're seeing it. There is no way you can say we can have college football while also saying it's not safe enough for the students to attend, from the jump. But if you start it all at the same time, then send the students home quicker while keep athletics going, the university makes its money, or at least maximizes what they can. 

What about the post-season games? The NCAA would have to decide if this is a good route to take, and have all the universities follow.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

What about the post-season games? The NCAA would have to decide if this is a good route to take, and have all the universities follow.

The NCAA has no power anymore. They're done. And frankly it was all an illusion anyways.

[Corvinus85]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The NCAA has no power anymore. They're done. And frankly it was all an illusion anyways.

A shadow on the wall? 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

A shadow on the wall? 

If one governor from a state that matters says no, it all falls apart. 

Now you could certainly still have college athletics, but I doubt they'll ever be the same going forward.

Pay the players! 

[RhaenysBee]

so we closed our mass testing with a 67% participation rate, which is somehow considered representative enough to draw conclusions from. For some inexplicable reason the results are said to come in at the end of May. I presume the taking of the tests was run for two weeks and we will only start analyzing the samples now. Doing the two simultaneously is assumably too much on the healthcare system. 

As of right now, we seem to have fewer and fewer new cases. Though there may be an upward spurge after the capital reopened today. We shall see. It’d be nice to get rid of my two centimeter roots. 

also my mother intends to see her dentist who had coronavirus. I understand that the person, as a medical professional himself, is responsible enough to only go back to work once he was completely healed and I understand that there must be strict regulation that would land him in prison if he practiced while being ill, but this still stresses me out terribly. Isn’t there another dentist? Ugh. 

 

[Zorral]

Quote

 

Cuba update: as of right now Cuban airports are still closed to international traffic. On May 15th, the Ministry of Health issued this message:

Taking into account the current situation of development of this disease in Cuba

 and in the World, the Ministry of Tourism is focusing on continuous improvement 

of hotel and other tourism facilities, as well as the development of hygiene and 

sanitary protocols, to  face the restart of tourist activities.

 

In order to protect national health security, a fundamental premise of the Cuban 

State, our borders will not be opened, nor will tourist services be activated, until 

so indicated by the Government of the Republic of Cuba.

 

Cuba, a world leader in medicine, was late to stop incoming tourism and late to close their schools, but once they locked down (March 21) they locked down. They're not out of the woods yet, but they flattened the curve, then they announced they would go on to crush it, by redoubling the quarantine while they did thorough contact tracing, which they have indeed proceeded to do. Meanwhile, they've been going house to house giving people immune boosters. BioCubaFarma, their long-established biopharmaceutical institute, is working on 15 different virus-related projects, including a vaccine. Unlike the present US government, which has seemingly done everything to make as many of us sick as possible, the Cuban government actually wants a healthy population, correctly seeing it as vital to defense. Here are the updated numbers of confirmed cases (there are certainly more), officially recovered cases, and officially dead of COVID-19 in Cuba:[

[Table of US vs Cuban stats not c&ping here]

79 dead, out of a population of 11.3 million (2018 figure). As best as I can figure, the US death rate is something like 50 times that. Even though US sanctions are making it harder for Cuba to get food and supplies, which is a terrible problem, I think Cuba might well return to some kind of normalcy before we see New York come back. Here's an op-ed by a United States human rights lawyer who's been in Cuba during this experience, and if you want to know more about what Cuba is doing about COVID-19 there's a themed issue of a journal called MEDICC, here, with specifics.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

But hey, Kim K.'s masked sold out in hours, so freedom won!