Was the endgame of Robert's Rebellion always total Targaryen extermination?

[Angel Eyes]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I’ll qualify my argument somewhat.  Had the rebels chosen Ned as king, or had Ned’s men reached Kings Landing first, things would have been different.  Ned would not  have killed women and children, even if it were in his interest.  And, he would make a stand, had he taken Elia and her children into custody.  He would not have released them to be killed. 

Had they fallen into the hands of anyone else, I think they were done for.

Which begs the question as to how Tywin reached King's Landing faster than Ned.

[SeanF]

Just now, Angel Eyes said:

Which begs the question as to how Tywin reached King's Landing faster than Ned.

I think that there’s much still to be told

[nyser1]

Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard while demanded the execution ("the heads") of Robert and Ned. Jon Arryn lost his heir as well to Aerys. Meanwhile, Aerys' son and heir disappeared with the betrothed virgin daughter of a Lord Paramount (and sister/daughter of the executed). So Aerys and Rhaegar were going to have to go one way or another.

I do not see any indication of a threat to the female Targaryens from the main group of rebeles (Queen, Rhaegar's daughter or the unborn Dany, or Elia frankly at this point). I envision it was going to end with one of three scenarios:

 

• Aegon has a prolonged regency with Elia in KL. One of the Rebel Leaders (if not all) would form a Regency or Regency Council.
• One of the rebel leaders (likely Robert) would be betrothed to Rhaenys. He would do his thing and father a lot of bastards until the marriage could be consumated for legitimate children.
• OTL.

[Raebo]

All I know is that I read a book about Tear Nicholas and when he was executed his wife, 4 daughters, son, and 3 servants were also executed.  If I remember correctly his sister in law and nephews were also executed in another part of the country.  They did not want to leave any Romanovs around to possible have a claim to be the ruler of Russia.

As far as the faceless assassins are concerned, does their price go up if there more than one target?  IE 2 children.

[ChefHeg]

I skipped some comments,  but the whole faceless men arguement has no weight... it's not gold they want, but you're biggest sacrifice. King Robert would give up gold (he doesn't care) ...what does he care about enough to hire a faceless man?

[FictionIsntReal]

On 10/4/2020 at 4:59 PM, Mario Seddy said:

was the end goal of the rebellion always the complete extermination of the family line?

The end goal wasn't even always to make Robert king. He didn't declare himself as such until around the time of the Trident. If Rhaegar had shown up and said "You're right, Jon Arryn, you don't need to violate the guest-right of those wards you raised by sending their heads. Rebels just need to swear fealty, and you're not required to show up in KL to do that" things might have been different. There would still be a lot of bad blood to be dealt with, but the rebellion didn't actually start until Jon Arryn called his banners rather than obeying.

On 10/4/2020 at 5:29 PM, YungWolf said:

fAegon's invasion demonstrates as much.

A rival claimant is a threat, but not really enough to topple the new regime unless that regime is in a much weaker state compared to, say, the Greyboy rebellion. Though that does make me wonder of what the odds of success would have been for Illyrio's original plan with the Dothraki + Golden Company but none of LF's meddling. I suppose Varys would still have known about the incest and could have revealed it at a time he thought was opportune.

On 10/4/2020 at 6:03 PM, frenin said:

No, he was ordered to do what he did.

Specifically, he & Lorch were ordered to kill the children. Lorch screwed up his murder by making it obvious how much effort he put into killing that kid, while Gregor raped & murdered Elia because he likes doing that sort of thing. I do think Elia's death was entirely predictable though. If Lorch had been the one in the room with her & Aegon (or the "pisswater prince" depending on who you believe) he would have just offhandedly killed her to get her out of the way, as I really doubt she'd stand by while her kids are killed in front of her. The only way she survives is if she's just not there.

On 10/4/2020 at 6:13 PM, YungWolf said:

wonder if Varys had a hand in trying to keep Viserys and Dany out of sight and mind in council meetings (ya know, not just the actual distance between them).

Varys is their spymaster and the one they rely on for info about Essos. I don't think we need to wonder about him calculating what information to give Robert. Robert even complains about how Illyrio's manse is beyond Varys' reach, which is ironic since we learn in the same book they're working together.

On 10/4/2020 at 6:53 PM, James Steller said:

why he thought Benjen or Stannis would just take that lying down is beyond me, but he wasn’t the Mad King for nothing

He might not have expected that. Rather, they might have been next on the chopping block.

On 10/4/2020 at 6:56 PM, Back door hodor said:

In my opinion, Tywin took the calculated risk of removing the rest of the Targs, thus prevent and Bob/Dany marriage and, paving the way wY for Cersei(and his grandchildren on the IT).

Dany hadn't even been born yet. And even if she had been a newborn when Tywin made his decision, that's too long of a wait for the new king to marry (although he might have expected Robert was going to marry Lyanna once she was found anyway).

[FictionIsntReal]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Which begs the question as to how Tywin reached King's Landing faster than Ned.

It raises rather than begs the question. And Tywin didn't have to fight through any loyalists to position his troops close to KL. Once he found out about the outcome of the battle, he was able to move immediately and not deal with the aftermath of any fighting (since he hadn't yet participated in any).

[frenin]

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Specifically, he & Lorch were ordered to kill the children. Lorch screwed up his murder by making it obvious how much effort he put into killing that kid, while Gregor raped & murdered Elia because he likes doing that sort of thing. I do think Elia's death was entirely predictable though. If Lorch had been the one in the room with her & Aegon (or the "pisswater prince" depending on who you believe) he would have just offhandedly killed her to get her out of the way, as I really doubt she'd stand by while her kids are killed in front of her. The only way she survives is if she's just not there.

That's what Tywin says, and like Oberyn, i do not believe him, I very much doubt that Tywin did not think about how valuable a hostage  she was in 14 days he spent on the road.

 

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The end goal wasn't even always to make Robert king.

We don't know what their endgame was, truth be told.

 

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He didn't declare himself as such until around the time of the Trident.

That's not to say that he, the trio, did not have taken the decision way earlier, the Trident was just his, their. way of making official a goal that was always there for him, them.

The decision could have been made the very moment the rebels decided to call the  banners and go to war.

 

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If Rhaegar had shown up and said "You're right, Jon Arryn, you don't need to violate the guest-right of those wards you raised by sending their heads. Rebels just need to swear fealty, and you're not required to show up in KL to do that" things might have been different. There would still be a lot of bad blood to be dealt with, but the rebellion didn't actually start until Jon Arryn called his banners rather than obeying.

It does not seem that either Robert or Ned were in a forgiving mood,  Martin says that the deaths of his kin radicalized Ned and Robert is Robert. 

[Daeron the Daring]

This depends on when would he get those living Targaryen hostages. Before or after Lyanna's death. If he captures for example Rhaella, Dany, Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia before he finds out about Lyanna's death, I don't think he would have been executing them after, but if things happen differently and he finds out about her death before the sacking of KL, he wouldn't have shown mercy. Anyway if he would have gotten any living Targaryens, I think others wouldn't have let him do execute them, maybe sending away all of them to different secret places as captives, and letting them die of old age.

[ShimShim]

Now correct me if im wrong, but Ned went to get Lyanna after Aerys death and the sack of kings landing, so Elia and her childrens deaths happened before Lyanna died, Ned and Robert would probably have thought there was a good chance she was still alive (which she was until she gave birth). And didn't Ned and Robert have a huge falling out after the sack of kings landing over the deaths of the targ children, and only when Ned returned with Lyannas body did they both go back to being friends because of their shared grief for her death. So that would mean Robert approved of the death of the Targ babies even before he new of Lyannas death, so he wanted them gone from the begging, so they would not be threat to his rule. (That is if im not mixing up my timeline)

[YungWolf]

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Varys is their spymaster and the one they rely on for info about Essos. I don't think we need to wonder about him calculating what information to give Robert. Robert even complains about how Illyrio's manse is beyond Varys' reach, which is ironic since we learn in the same book they're working together.

Right, I didn't mean to dismiss his position as Spymaster and agree completely.

I meant to suggest that in the event it had been brought up, Varys could've deflected at council meetings with a notion suggesting "the Dragonspawn are still out of reach, but has Your Grace heard the new rumors of a monstrous wild boar in the Kingswood, or perhaps about the new shipment of Dornish red" etc. Something Robert has shown interest in that he can directly act on.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Aerys and Rhaegar were going to die no matter what happened to the rest of the Targaryens. Aerys killed Elbert Arryn, Rickard and Brandon and ordered Jon Arryn to give him Ned's and Robert's heads with no reason.  Rhaegar officially abducted a Lord Paramount's daughter who was also the betrothed of another Lord Paramount. 

Since Robert made a claim fot the Iron Throne it became clear even to him that Aegon and Viserys had to die too. Twyin just put him out of the uncomfortable situation to do it. I find it more possible for Rhaella and Daenerys to survive but we still have Twyin who could execute them/ poison them. 

[The hairy bear]

The fact that Ned was outraged at the murder of Rhaegar's sons should be proof enough that the leaders of the rebellion either (1) had not discussed what to do with the Targaryen children, or (2) had agreed to opt for a more merciful solution such as the Wall.

[FictionIsntReal]

13 hours ago, frenin said:

That's what Tywin says, and like Oberyn, i do not believe him, I very much doubt that Tywin did not think about how valuable a hostage  she was in 14 days he spent on the road.

Perhaps valuable for whoever holds the city, but Robert's forces would be along quickly and expect to have custody of any hostages (only Pycelle seemed to think Tywin could just hold the city). Tywin won't personally benefit from a hostage, and he's expecting Robert to look aside rather than hold him responsible for any deaths which occurred during the sack. He's not really harmed if Robert does have a hostage, although if she's able to act as a witness regarding what Lorch & Clegane did that could be a problem.

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The decision could have been made the very moment the rebels decided to call the  banners and go to war.

The trio did nothing until Aerys demanded that Jon Arryn hand over Ned & Robert. Robert we know wasn't interested in being king himself, so it really seems doubtful that would have been settled that quickly. He'd want to fight first and worry about who will be on the throne later.

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It does not seem that either Robert or Ned were in a forgiving mood,  Martin says that the deaths of his kin radicalized Ned and Robert is Robert.

Both of them are going to be the most dedicated of rebels, but the coalition also involved people like Jon Arryn & Hoster Tully. Robert was willing to listen when Jon Arryn made decisions.

9 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Rhaegar officially abducted a Lord Paramount's daughter who was also the betrothed of another Lord Paramount.

That's actually a possible reason he could survive. He didn't execute her, thus she's effectively a hostage. He could agree to return her in exchange for having his own life spared. The rebels might still insist on his abdication and perhaps exile with his siblings.

7 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

the murder of Rhaegar's sons

One son, one daughter.

[frenin]

4 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Perhaps valuable for whoever holds the city, but Robert's forces would be along quickly and expect to have custody of any hostages (only Pycelle seemed to think Tywin could just hold the city). Tywin won't personally benefit from a hostage, and he's expecting Robert to look aside rather than hold him responsible for any deaths which occurred during the sack. He's not really harmed if Robert does have a hostage, although if she's able to act as a witness regarding what Lorch & Clegane did that could be a problem.

Fair enough.

 

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The trio did nothing until Aerys demanded that Jon Arryn hand over Ned & Robert.

That tells us absolutely nothing about what were going on in their heads, perhaps that moment was when all the camels broke down and the Trio decided to end the Targs for good.

Perhaps the trio was completely out of the loop about the Lyanna and/or the Brandon affair until Aerys asked for Ned and Robert, since the Vale was closed in winter, news would last far longer to reach them.

 

But that the trio did nothing until Aerys went after those two is at all an indication whether that was the moment when they decided to crown Robert, or one of them, king or not.

 

 

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert we know wasn't interested in being king himself, so it really seems doubtful that would have been settled that quickly.

That's completely inmaterial imo.

 

10 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He'd want to fight first and worry about who will be on the throne later.

Which is what he did anyway, they weren't talking about any plan whatsoever.

That does not mean that there was not any.

 

 

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He'd want to fight first and worry about who will be on the throne later.

Hoster Tully had little to say, Martin has said that the Trio were the ones in charge and there is little reason for Jon Arryn to spare either Aerys or Rhaegar,

2 against 1, seems like an settle situation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 10/6/2020 at 6:08 PM, frenin said:

Which is what he did anyway, they weren't talking about any plan whatsoever.

That does not mean that there was not any.

I don't understand: how can there be a plan if they never discussed it?

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Hoster Tully had little to say

He joined the coalition later, but he still had enough clout to marry off both his daughters.

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there is little reason for Jon Arryn to spare either Aerys or Rhaegar

Aerys just killed his heir and ordered him to violate guestright, but Rhaegar hasn't actually done anything against the Arryns or the Vale more broadly.

[frenin]

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't understand: how can there be a plan if they never discussed it?

They weren't talking out loud about any endgame. They only did so at the Trident, that doesn't mean that their goal wasn't the Throne from the very beginning.

 

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He joined the coalition later, but he still had enough clout to marry off both his daughters.

Sure, his army. Martin names the leaders of the Robellion and he's not there.

 

 

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aerys just killed his heir and ordered him to violate guestright, but Rhaegar hasn't actually done anything against the Arryns or the Vale more broadly.

Just kidnapping his Foster's son sister and his Foster's son bethrothed.

Why do you think he would take that lightly?? 

[FictionIsntReal]

12 hours ago, frenin said:

They weren't talking out loud about any endgame. They only did so at the Trident, that doesn't mean that their goal wasn't the Throne from the very beginning.

Robert & Ned had the goal of not dying. We know Robert had no interest in taking the throne himself, so why would that be his "goal [...] from the very beginning"?

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Just kidnapping his Foster's son sister and his Foster's son bethrothed.

Why do you think he would take that lightly??

Ned Stark acts as a ward for Theon, but he's under no obligation to do anything about Asha or a hypothetical woman espoused to Theon. Nor would Robb Stark for the Freys he took on. Jon Arryn probably has bonds of affection with his foster-sons, but he's also a political pragmatist.

[frenin]

On 10/9/2020 at 1:20 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert & Ned had the goal of not dying. We know Robert had no interest in taking the throne himself, so why would that be his "goal [...] from the very beginning"?

His?? Maybe not, Their?? It's perfectly possible, Robert did give in to Ned's and Jon's demands, if he's not simply regretting a decision he made, so it could've happened.

 

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Robert sat down again. "Damn you, Ned Stark. You and Jon Arryn, I loved you both. What have you done to me? You were the one should have been king, you or Jon."
"You had the better claim, Your Grace."
"I told you to drink, not to argue. You made me king, you could at least have the courtesy to listen when I talk, damn you. Look at me, Ned. Look at what kinging has done to me. Gods, too fat for my armor, how did it ever come to this?"

This conversation could've happened at the Trident just as easily that it could've happened at the Eyrie before the three of them parted ways.

 

 

On 10/9/2020 at 1:20 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Ned Stark acts as a ward for Theon, but he's under no obligation to do anything about Asha or a hypothetical woman espoused to Theon. Nor would Robb Stark for the Freys he took on. Jon Arryn probably has bonds of affection with his foster-sons, but he's also a political pragmatist.

Ned Stark's relationship with Theon's is in way, shape or form, similar to Robert's and Ned's relationship with Jon,  i've sure as hell never heard Theon referring to Ned as a father figure. Ditto with Robb and the Freys

That's a false equivalency.