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US Politics: Veni, Vidi, Virus


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Should the two point poll bump Biden got dissipated by now?

It seems to me to be steady.

Also, Realclear politics consistently shows shows Biden doing poorer in battle ground states than Clinton did.

The difference is less than one point, but still Clinton lost most of the states she needed to win by one point. 

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"Citing 25th Amendment, Pelosi, Raskin move to create panel that could rule on president’s fitness for office"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pelosi-presidency-succession-trump/2020/10/08/3c71dfae-09a5-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html

That's why Pence, the one whom flies love, is flying back so abruptly to D.C.  He's going to be part of this panel.

Toward the end of the long piece she does say she's not going to try to remove him from office.  But essentially all the language prior is that due to covid-19 he's unfit to carry out the duties of President.

Well, as she says at the end of the piece, they don't think they can actually remove him even now, and so close to the election, but at least temporarily relieve him as sickness has him obviously unfit for duty.  Imagine what people like her in that realm of D.C. are seeing and hearing and saying ....

So we're gonna have Prez 'flies on me' Pence.  Holy shyte.

I woke up this morning with a whole sf / thriller novel being filmed in my head, which is all of this from 2016 until election night and after.  In the film, how, the closer to the next election we get, the more deranged and incompetent and lost everyone in the WH is -- and the Russians are alternately sobbing and guffawing -- I kept thinking nobody but the lowest of the pulp publisher would ever buy this as a novel, it's just so bad, worse than pulp.  And now at the end of the day in which I've moved waking, not sleeping or dreaming, it's even crazier than that with which I went to bed last night.

This is how we've been living and have been living for years now.  He's got to go.

 

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54 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Also, Realclear politics consistently shows shows Biden doing poorer in battle ground states than Clinton did.

Yeah I've noticed this and I call shenanigans on RCP's part.  The "battleground states" they are using in their calculation for 2020 are PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, and AZ.  I can't quickly find what "battleground states" they were using for 2016 as a comparison - almost certainly not Arizona considering their final final average in 2016 had Trump up four.  Bottomline, even using RCP's own calculations, Biden is winning the first three - PA, MI, and WI - by an average of 6.3 percent.  And that's all he needs to win.

ETA:  OK, see here.  Clinton did have a 5.1 lead on October 13 (the equivalent of today if you're measuring by days out from the election) in those six states.  However, it dropped to 1.1 by the eve of the election, and dropped to 2 points in the last week of the election - i.e. Comey Letter.  If Biden starts dropping by 3 to 4 points in those states, yes, that would be very concerning.

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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/08/facebook-trump-turning-point-usa-rally-forge

Quote

Facebook has removed hundreds of fake profiles it has linked to the conservative group Turning Point USA for carrying out organized attacks on the site, including attempts to influence public conversations by flooding news articles with pro-Trump comments and misinformation.

The move was prompted by reporting last month in the Washington Post that found Turning Point Action, an affiliated pro-Trump group, was paying teenagers to post coordinated messages on the site, a violation of Facebook’s rules.

In comments on news articles, paid users cast doubt on mail-in ballots, praised Trump and spread misinformation about coronavirus
I feel like I had engaged some of these Turning Point USA trolls in the comments sections of facebook pages before, now I feel bad that they were some skint teenagers (and their arguments reflected it). Although I think they would just post memes most of the time, never sentences which makes perfect sense now.
 
Edit: I'm not sure if this has any effect on the Trump campaign. Facebook was a big part of their campaign strategy, and now it look like the Zuck is finally pulling the plug on them.
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36 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I've noticed this and I call shenanigans on RCP's part.  The "battleground states" they are using in their calculation for 2020 are PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, and AZ.  I can't quickly find what "battleground states" they were using for 2016 as a comparison - almost certainly not Arizona considering their final final average in 2016 had Trump up four.  Bottomline, even using RCP's own calculations, Biden is winning the first three - PA, MI, and WI - by an average of 6.3 percent.  And that's all he needs to win.

ETA:  OK, see here.  Clinton did have a 5.1 lead on October 13 (the equivalent of today if you're measuring by days out from the election) in those six states.  However, it dropped to 1.1 by the eve of the election, and dropped to 2 points in the last week of the election - i.e. Comey Letter.  If Biden starts dropping by 3 to 4 points in those states, yes, that would be very concerning.

Hmm it should be noted that October 13 was just days after the access Hollywood tapes.

Something Fresh in people’s minds.

 

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Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm it should be noted that October 13 was just days after the access Hollywood tapes.

True, but to be fair the same kinda thing could be said this cycle with the debate/covid.

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

True, but to be fair the same kinda thing could be said this cycle with the debate/covid.

True. If the bounch Biden got from the last debate doesn’t dissipate by next week could it be looked as solidified?

Also if Trump does worse—which he very well might—I have to wonder how big a boost it’d give to Biden.

But honestly Trump doesn’t need to do a lot to defy expectations. Just act with a modicum of maturity.

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56 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

They are introducing a bill to create a panel, I dont think that is a reason for Pence to fly back to DC. But I do wonder if members of Congress are privy to other information that we havent ourselves seen that is making her take this step.

They most certainly are.

If the panel discusses temporarily rescinding the presidency, the procedures, the line of command, Pence has to be there though, yes?  Of course, after the election, as she says, who knows at this time, so no discussion.

Or else the kids are freakin' the eff out about the very idea and called him back?  Whatever.

No sickness, no reason, Pence whom the flies love is coming back, he says.

Total chaos.  That's enough right there to establish a commission and disarm him for a while.

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14 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If the bounch Biden got from the last debate doesn’t dissipate by next week could it be looked as solidified?

Sure I suppose.  One thing to keep in mind though when looking at the RCP metric is Biden's only gotten a boost of about 1 point in their battleground states in the past two weeks.  His lead has been much more stable than Clinton's including in that measure where she fluctuated much more throughout the campaign.  Obviously due to the fact there were many more undecideds four years ago, which suggests any shifts or "bounces" are going to inherently be more stable this cycle.

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Jamie Harrison has threatened to pull out of his debate with Graham tomorrow unless Graham takes a COVID test. Graham is refusing, for which there can be many explanations.....but I like how Harrison is basically not being risk-averse.

Oh and I keep seeing articles about how the 'free Regeneron' that Trump keeps touting was made from an embryonic kidney that came from ...an elective abortion. Someone should ask Pence how he feels about that (and the whole embryonic stem cell research stuff).

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