US Politics: Locking Up the Vote!

[DMC]

56 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It could just be the rumblings we’re hearing aren't entirely true.

To the bolded they're a couple points biased towards Republicans. Which would still make it incredibly bad news.

Yeah I have a hard time believing the Trump campaign went from viewing NC as 'super safe' to their chances 'all but evaporated' in a manner of weeks.  Perhaps Trump is bipolar, but all his operatives and pollsters?

As for the IDP/TIPP numbers being "incredibly bad news," I don't see that at all - especially if there is a 1-2 point GOP bias.  That would mean Biden is actually leading by 7-8 points, which sounds just about right to me.

[argonak]

I find it almost enraging that our system is so cocked up that winning by 8 points doesn't actually mean someone will win for a national office.

The electoral college needs to go away.  People should vote, not acreage.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, argonak said:

I find it almost enraging that our system is so cocked up that winning by 8 points doesn't actually mean someone will win for a national office.

While obviously the EC needs to die a thousand deaths, if Biden wins by 8 he will almost certainly win the EC.  Best estimates for the GOP's EC advantage are at 3-4 points max.

[Maithanet]

Early vote update, 10/19:

Nationally - 28.8 million votes cast. 

Swing state votes, as percentage of 2016 votes cast:

Pennsylvania - 11%

Michigan - 31%

Wisconsin - 29%

Florida - 26%

Georgia - 36%

North Carolina - 32%

Arizona - 22%

Nevada - 17%

Texas - 45%

 

In person voting starts in Florida today, so that number will start going up fast.  Wisconsin will also start tomorrow.  Pennsylvania doesn't offer early voting beyond absentee.  And I suspect that the attention the naked ballot issue is getting will cause a lot of skittery democrats to cancel their absentee ballots and just vote in person.  Regardless, Pennsylvania is a notable laggard in these numbers, and I expect that will continue through election day. 

[Fez]

19 minutes ago, DMC said:

While obviously the EC needs to die a thousand deaths, if Biden wins by 8 he will almost certainly win the EC.  Best estimates for the GOP's EC advantage are at 3-4 points max.

This.

The concern is what will the discrepancy be between the polling margin and the final margin. There's several forces that may shrink it, such as systematic polling error, ballot spoilage in absentee votes, and votes successfully challenged by Republicans. And we don't know to what extent those will impact the final tally yet. So when people are nervous about Biden+8 polls, they aren't nervous that the final margin will be +8, they're worried that because of those things the final margin may be more like Biden+3; which is close enough to swing things.

[Varysblackfyre321]

35 minutes ago, DMC said:

As for the IDP/TIPP numbers being "incredibly bad news," I don't see that at all - especially if there is a 1-2 point GOP bias.  That would mean Biden is actually leading by 7-8 points, which sounds just about right to me.

I meant for Trimp.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Regardless, Pennsylvania is a notable laggard in these numbers, and I expect that will continue through election day. 

I am increasingly worried about PA.  Not necessarily about the naked ballot thing - albeit my neighbor who I smoke cigarettes with mentioned that as the reason why he was not going to vote by mail - but just because how inexperienced they are at this type of election.  If you look here, you can see they have one of the lowest percentages of total advance ballots cast in the country.  I also get the completely unscientific and entirely anecdotal sense that if any swing state is under-sampling the dumb white male Trump vote, it's here.

5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I meant for Trimp.

Ah, my bad.  But who's Trimp?  Is that Trump's mini-me?

[Martell Spy]

Got my ballot. Sounds like Washington's early voting numbers on the opening weekend are through the roof.

[argonak]

My wife and I filled out our ballots last night.  She's going to try and drop them at the local ballot box (we have half a dozen, within easy driving range, too bad its so hard to do, huh Texas?) today.  Then its just a matter of checking the web page in a few days to see if everything went all right.

I'm glad I live in a state that actually wants me to vote.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I am increasingly worried about PA.  Not necessarily about the naked ballot thing - albeit my neighbor who I smoke cigarettes with mentioned that as the reason why he was not going to vote by mail - but just because how inexperienced they are at this type of election.  If you look here, you can see they have one of the lowest percentages of total advance ballots cast in the country.  I also get the completely unscientific and entirely anecdotal sense that if any swing state is under-sampling the dumb white male Trump vote, it's here.

Pennsylvania makes me squeamish just because they're definitely going to be super slow in counting absentees, and thus Trump is almost guaranteed to be ahead on election night, possibly well ahead.  That means any legal challenge is going to start with the default position of Trump was ahead.  I don't like that at all.

I'm definitely hoping that Biden can just win convincingly enough that he doesn't have to rely on any one or two states, and we'll just find out like a week after the election "oh, he won Pennsylvania too".  That is more or less where the polls are now - we could realistically have Biden win FL and ahead (if not necessarily called) in NC, MI and WI by noon on Nov 4. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

If you look here, you can see they have one of the lowest percentages of total advance ballots cast in the country.  I also get the completely unscientific and entirely anecdotal sense that if any swing state is under-sampling the dumb white male Trump vote, it's here.

Uneducated white males do love Trump and I have not disappointed him so far. 

your fears are well grounded. Polling errors do happen and the 6 point lead Biden could have in the state could be 4. Well within the margin of error. 

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I am increasingly worried about PA.  Not necessarily about the naked ballot thing - albeit my neighbor who I smoke cigarettes with mentioned that as the reason why he was not going to vote by mail - but just because how inexperienced they are at this type of election.  If you look here, you can see they have one of the lowest percentages of total advance ballots cast in the country.  I also get the completely unscientific and entirely anecdotal sense that if any swing state is under-sampling the dumb white male Trump vote, it's here.

It's possible. Though worth noting that even Trafalger, who is seemingly making it up as they go along to "account for shy Trump voters" was still only able to get PA to Biden+2 last week. At this point it does seem like the weakest of the WI/MI/PA group, but only because the other two are looking so good recently.

I will say though, I really want Biden to win by at least 2 states. Meaning that you could take away any one swing state, and Biden would still win. Just to account for any potential post-election shennigans. If the margin is just one state there will be a ton of pressure on Republicans to find a way; but if it's two or more, it's just hopeless for them. Just winning WI/MI/PA and losing the rest makes me real nervous. 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ah, my bad.  But who's Trimp?  Is that Trump's mini-me?

You know what they say: sTrimpin' ain't easy.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm definitely hoping that Biden can just win convincingly enough that he doesn't have to rely on any one or two states, and we'll just find out like a week after the election "oh, he won Pennsylvania too".  That is more or less where the polls are now - we could realistically have Biden win FL and ahead (if not necessarily called) in NC, MI and WI by noon on Nov 4. 

Yeah.  I'm have a hard time counting on FL or NC.  On a personal note it's kinda funny - my brother and I live in PA, my parents and sister in FL, and my grandparents in AZ.  Was telling my mom the other day if both of our states fail we may have to rely on grandma's vote for Biden to get over 270 with MI and WI.  I've never seen grandma remotely this passionate, let alone interested, in an election.  After the debate a couple weeks ago she called me and delved into an acerbic rant on Trump capped by "I really was just hoping the entire time watching it that he'd drop dead on stage."  That's my 86 year old grams.

12 minutes ago, Fez said:

I will say though, I really want Biden to win by at least 2 states. Meaning that you could take away any one swing state, and Biden would still win. Just to account for any potential post-election shennigans. If the margin is just one state there will be a ton of pressure on Republicans to find a way; but if it's two or more, it's just hopeless for them. Just winning WI/MI/PA and losing the rest makes me real nervous. 

Agreed entirely.

[Zorral]

12 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

How many low-paying (or no paying jobs as students are not paid) have you worked where every night and weekends you were sent home with two plus hours of extra work--for which, again, you weren't paid?

TEACHERS. Low pay to start with, then enormous numbers of hours of work for NO PAY, plus very many of them are actually buying school supplies for the kids out of their own pockets, and even cleaning supplies for the school, out of their own low pay pockets -- and that even includes towels and soap for the lavatories -- and are cleaning those lavatories themselves.  This is going on all over the USA, and that was BEFORE the virus.  For years it's been like that.

Additionally, now they are expected to know how to handle a gun and shooter lockdown defense and offense -- and take this training at their own expense, and even, it has most certainly been expected and demanded BUY the damned guns and ammo, while putting their lives out as first line of defense of others' kids.  And NOW, further being the first line of putting their lives at very great risk, additionally learning and performing all sorts of medical procedures to keep out kids safe in the schools.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Yes, we are all queasy about FL, NC and PA because reasons, but I am hoping that statistically it would be improbable for all of them to not pan out (assuming a +7-8 lead come actual election day). November 4th cant come soon enough.

[Ran]

Apparently Trump's campaign manager has presented Brock McCleary as a campaign pollster and, per Jonathan Swan, this has to do in part with the fact that Tony Fabrizio (the previous pollster) was seen as being "too negative" in the results of his polling. Make of that what one will.

[Varysblackfyre321]

@DMC

I'm sorry but is this link you meant to use;

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

From the context of your post I thought you were referring to the amount of requested mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania being low this year.

But the link only goes over what happened in 2016.

[argonak]

36 minutes ago, Zorral said:

TEACHERS. Low pay to start with, then enormous numbers of hours of work for NO PAY, plus very many of them are actually buying school supplies for the kids out of their own pockets, and even cleaning supplies for the school, out of their own low pay pockets -- and that even includes towels and soap for the lavatories -- and are cleaning those lavatories themselves.  This is going on all over the USA, and that was BEFORE the virus.  For years it's been like that.

Additionally, now they are expected to know how to handle a gun and shooter lockdown defense and offense -- and take this training at their own expense, and even, it has most certainly been expected and demanded BUY the damned guns and ammo, while putting their lives out as first line of defense of others' kids.  And NOW, further being the first line of putting their lives at very great risk, additionally learning and performing all sorts of medical procedures to keep out kids safe in the schools.

 

Don't forget also they had to figure out how to Teach 20- 30 kids remotely via a computer screen without any extra training or budget.   Another huge failure of the Federal Government.  The Dept of Education should have spent March through June figuring out a nationwide tele-education plan that could be rolled out as an option to every school in the country.  

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

@DMC

I'm sorry but is this link you meant to use;

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

From the context of your post I thought you were referring to the amount of requested mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania being low this year.

Yes, as far as I can tell that is the link I used.  Sorry for the confusion - I meant the 2016 numbers.