US politics: 2 weeks notice

[Altherion]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Comparing Biden's current leads in many potential tipping point states - and the possibility they could drop to within the margin before election day - to such a situation is quite stupid.

In theory, this is possible, but I think taking the possibility too seriously is perhaps an overreaction to what happened in 2016. Trump pulled off an improbable victory once, but now he'd need to not only overcome a much larger deficit (Biden's current popular vote lead is easily twice that of Clinton even before Comey), but also the fact that changing people's minds after 4 years is harder.

That said, the prediction markets seems to agree with your caution. Unlike FiveThirtyEight or the various other aggregators, they're trading Biden's chance of winning at only 63-65 cents on the dollar (example). It's kind of weird since in 2016, they had the Democrats at 90 cents on the dollar with far worse polls.

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

538 now shows a 9.2 point lead for Biden, so there has been some modest tightening as per their averaging method (note that is uses a mixture of national and state polls, and the latter may be dragging the average down). The other thing to note is that if the state polls are as wrong now as in 2016, Biden still gets to 280 (basically flipping PA and MI, and also AZ). Some states like FL would still be pretty close in that scenario though.

After the dust has settled it would be great to get another data point on state polls or national polls (or now, district level polls)

Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is under 6 points now.

About what it was before the debate.

In the days to come I’m curious on how tighter it’d get. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 minutes ago, Altherion said:

In theory, this is possible, but I think taking the possibility too seriously is perhaps an overreaction to what happened in 2016. Trump pulled off an improbable victory once, but now he'd need to not only overcome a much larger deficit (Biden's current popular vote lead is easily twice that of Clinton even before Comey), but also the fact that changing people's minds after 4 years is harder.

That said, the prediction markets seems to agree with your caution. Unlike FiveThirtyEight or the various other aggregators, they're trading Biden's chance of winning at only 63-65 cents on the dollar (example). It's kind of weird since in 2016, they had the Democrats at 90 cents on the dollar with far worse polls.

Since when is gambling largely not just emotional?

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Asking just because I'm curious, but how do brand new voters get classified? As in registered just this year.

New voters or new registrants.  Here's an article on the early vote in swing states that includes such analysis - which importantly is just based on a modeling.

2 minutes ago, Altherion said:

In theory, this is possible, but I think taking the possibility too seriously is perhaps an overreaction to what happened in 2016.

Well, there's a lot of open field between taking the possibility too seriously and completely dismissing it as a possibility.  And while I'm quite optimistic, I think it's important to be cautiously optimistic.  Saying polls don't matter in the last 10 days - which suggests Biden's current lead is in the bag - is decidedly not cautious optimism.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Please guys, we need a landslide for Biden more than ever. For so many reasons, but here's another one.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

 

Just think that the economic future of the UK, in a deal between Johnson and rumpytuptum, put together by Putin, depends on the votes of some gebos in Alabama,

As for early voting results, etc. before all the ballots are in and counted -- I keep thinking of Wilson's second election.  At the end of the day when the votes were counted here in the East he's lost, big time. But by morning when the votes in the midwest and the west were counted, he'd won.  As the Republicans put it that time, "the Pie and Mother vote won it for him."

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

44 minutes ago, DMC said:

Comparing Biden's current leads in many potential tipping point states - and the possibility they could drop to within the margin before election day - to such a situation is quite stupid

No, it's not. It's a sign of abject failure. Calm your lemon booty. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

31 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Come kick this football.

Is Miss Jace shocked to learn that the Jucy Lucy comes from the same place as The Peanuts strip? 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's a sign of abject failure. Calm your lemon booty.

I don't understand any of this.

[IheartIheartTesla]

20 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is under 6 points now.

About what it was before the debate.

In the days to come I’m curious on how tighter it’d get. 

Well yeah, its about 5.8. There are about 4-5 % undecided voters, so if we assume poll averages are right and Trump get 3 out of 4 of those voters (and not too many people switch votes) then it can shrink to a 3 point lead or so. (Or you could imagine the national margin will be +7 Biden and subtract whatever the partisan tilt is of PA, maybe 3 or so?)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't understand any of this.

Should we start with lemon booty?

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Point taken, but do you see anything that would cause you to believe that a similar event will happen? 

Is Bill Barr's corrupt ass going to arrest the Biden? No. That presser we saw is probably all they have, and FBI Director Ray wanted nothing to do with it.

They have nothing. Just breath, hope there are no irregularities, and we'll have a new President elect. 

I think this mindset just inspires complacency. 

Biden has a strong chance at winning the election.

Trump still has a strong chance.

Perhaps it'd  best to see him as 2 points behind in any state state Biden needs to win?

Or at least take Silver’s advice and remember Silver’s advice of Trump just having over a ten percent chance is just about as good a chance as rolling a one on a six sided dye.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Should we start with lemon booty?

I'm scared to.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm scared to.

Don't be. Everything has gone as well as one could have hoped for. Is everything perfect? No, of course not, but @Killjoybear (ugh) and I feared far worse scenarios. So far, this is pretty good, all things considered. 

Now, if you don't mind, I'm going to go barbeque a few porterhouses and a chicken breast. Because Minnesota football is back baby*!!!!!

*Why the actual fuck are we doing any of this...........

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Don't be. Everything has gone as well as one could have hoped for. Is everything perfect? No, of course not, but @Killjoybear (ugh) and I feared far worse scenarios. So far, this is pretty good, all things considered. 

.  I was saying I was scared to know why you called me lemon booty.  I'm hardly scared about the state of the race.  But that doesn't change the fact that your assertion polling doesn't matter in the last 10 days is objectively wrong and far too complacent.

[Jace, Extat]

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is Miss Jace shocked to learn that the Jucy Lucy comes from the same place as The Peanuts strip? 

They're putting titties in Lord of the Rings. Nothing shocks me now.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

.  I was saying I was scared to know why you called me lemon booty.  I'm hardly scared about the state of the race.  But that doesn't change the fact that your assertion polling doesn't matter in the last 10 days is objectively wrong and far too complacent.

Does it make you feel better if I say you have less lemon booty than @Fez? He's a Jets fan though....

And yes, focusing on the polling data at this point is a waist of effort. Invest that same energy into phone backing and the result will likely be better. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

They're putting titties in Lord of the Rings. Nothing shocks me now.

Not even the Tennessee Titans doing something right?

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Does it make you feel better if I say you have less lemon booty than @Fez? He's a Jets fan though....

Um, no.

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

And yes, focusing on the polling data at this point is a waist of effort. Invest that same energy into phone backing and the result will likely be better. 

I can walk and chew gun at the same time, thanks.

ETA:  That's right, I can chew gun!!!

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Well yeah, its about 5.8. There are about 4-5 % undecided voters, so if we assume poll averages are right and Trump get 3 out of 4 of those voters (and not too many people switch votes) then it can shrink to a 3 point lead or so. (Or you could imagine the national margin will be +7 Biden and subtract whatever the partisan tilt is of PA, maybe 3 or so?)

This seems to simply rest on the partisan hilt still being 3.

If the polling numbers--and I know this may seem unlikely--go into about 2 or even one point, doesn't that kinda make Biden’s national  lead not mean as much?

 

[A True Kaniggit]

Just now, DMC said:

I can walk and chew gun at the same time, thanks.

You are a titan among man.