US politics: 2 weeks notice

[A True Kaniggit]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

First it needs to earn those bootstraps.  Enough with the handouts.

She-it. You're right. Hell, we should be charging babies for their own birth. Don't they gain they most out of it?

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Have you ever killed a spider's nest?

Define "killed" and "nest". In the last week I've walked face first into 2 webs. (it was an off-week. this is not a common occurrence) I'm sure those spiders were fairly pissed.

Have I ever deliberately destroyed a spider egg-sac? No.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

First it needs to earn those bootstraps.  Enough with the handouts.

I curse you! 

For the rest of your life, would you rather have to walk like a crab or have crab claws for hands?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?

[Ran]

Some comments after someone released a collection of district internal polls they compiled, with Silver focusing on it being mostly D internals (which, FWIW, says a lot all by itself) while Enten zeros in on just the released R internals which, as I noted previously, all look bad for Trump ... and those are the good ones for him.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Define "killed" and "nest". In the last week I've walked face first into 2 webs. (it was an off-week. this is not a common occurrence) I'm sure those spiders were fairly pissed.

Have I ever deliberately destroyed a spider egg-sac? No.

Murderer! 

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Ran said:

with Silver focusing on it being mostly D internals (which, FWIW, says a lot all by itself) while Enten zeros in on just the released R internals which, as I noted previously, all look bad for Trump ... and those are the good ones for him.

There's been a lot of talk - on here and in general - of pollsters "correcting" for the undersampling of uneducated whites in 2016, particularly in state polls.  These internals suggest the disparity between national and statewide polling may well be due to public firms overcorrecting for that error and producing an error the other way.  One thing I'd always bring up in my behavior seminars is how little academics and even most public firms know compared to researchers that are funded by campaigns.  We simply do not have the resources to acquire the same quality of information they do.  Or maybe it isn't, who knows.  We'll find out soon enough either way.

[Ran]

A rant by Lou Dobbs against Lindsey Graham lead to people wondering what was going on:

(Apparently people are already hacking away to make campaign ads for Harrison and/or Bledsoe out of it.)

 

In any case, word from people in the local SC media area is that they're seeing a lot of Trumpist types being trotted out to slam Graham as a loser for failing to "reveal the truth" about the so-called "Obamagate". Never mind he's been one of the obsequious Trump lickspittles since the inauguration, he's just not Trump enough for them, allegedly. But the fact that a bunch of them have chosen now to beat up on him suggests that they, too, now think he's a goner (wonder what the internal polls are showing...), and are jumping on him to send a message to other GOP senators that they had a role in bringing him down and could do the same to them if they aren't sufficiently in line with their crackpottery and cult of Trump.

[All Cats Are Bad]

These early numbers among young voters in MI, FL, etc. are looking real, real good.

[JGP]

34 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

These early numbers among young voters in MI, FL, etc. are looking real, real good.

In the aggregate, the youth vote is pissed yo. 

They may not be getting a lot of what they want from the Biden campaign [at least insofar as proposals] but in the main, Trump is fucking despised. From what I gather on Twitter via activists that are really pushing the youth turnout, they'll deal with Biden's waffling on climate and such after he's elected lol

 

 

[Relic]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

A rant by Lou Dobbs against Lindsey Graham lead to people wondering what was going on:

(Apparently people are already hacking away to make campaign ads for Harrison and/or Bledsoe out of it.)

 

In any case, word from people in the local SC media area is that they're seeing a lot of Trumpist types being trotted out to slam Graham as a loser for failing to "reveal the truth" about the so-called "Obamagate". Never mind he's been one of the obsequious Trump lickspittles since the inauguration, he's just not Trump enough for them, allegedly. But the fact that a bunch of them have chosen now to beat up on him suggests that they, too, now think he's a goner (wonder what the internal polls are showing...), and are jumping on him to send a message to other GOP senators that they had a role in bringing him down and could do the same to them if they aren't sufficiently in line with their crackpottery and cult of Trump.

Hate both of these scumbags, but i must say I derive a certain sort of sick pleasure watching them eat each other. Fuck them both. 

[Gaston de Foix]

I believe Trump was actually considering doing a rally for Graham in SC. 

But this is exactly what Harrison needs, so bless you Dobbs.  Please keep eating your own.  Call him Grahamnesty a few more times on Fox.  

[Mindwalker]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/23/1989045/-Friday-Night-Owls-With-code-changes-Facebook-helped-rightwing-publishers-and-throttled-the-left

The story the company has publicly told is that it was working to “bring people closer together” by showing us more posts from friends and family, and to prioritize “trusted” and “informative” sources of news.

(...) and when it found that some of them would have a dramatic impact on the reach of right-wing “junk sites,” as a former employee with knowledge of the conversations puts it, the engineers were sent back to lessen those impacts. As the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, they came back in January 2018 with a second iteration that dialed up the harm to progressive-leaning news organizations instead.

[DanteGabriel]

3 hours ago, Relic said:

Hate both of these scumbags, but i must say I derive a certain sort of sick pleasure watching them eat each other. Fuck them both. 

I got similar enjoyment recently out of the two Republican Senate candidates in Georgia, Collins and Loeffler, sniping at each other over Loeffler's Warhol print of Mao. Warms my heart when the wing nuts turn on the moneymongers.

[Fez]

7 hours ago, DMC said:

There's been a lot of talk - on here and in general - of pollsters "correcting" for the undersampling of uneducated whites in 2016, particularly in state polls.  These internals suggest the disparity between national and statewide polling may well be due to public firms overcorrecting for that error and producing an error the other way.  One thing I'd always bring up in my behavior seminars is how little academics and even most public firms know compared to researchers that are funded by campaigns.  We simply do not have the resources to acquire the same quality of information they do.  Or maybe it isn't, who knows.  We'll find out soon enough either way.

I used to think campaigns knew a lot more than public pollsters, but these days I'm not so sure. After reading the stories about Romney 2012 and Clinton 2016 and what went wrong, I think in recent elections maybe the Obama folks knew more than anyone else but that's it. Even the Trump 2016 campaign seems like they got lucky more than anything else; there were stories early on election where campaign folks were saying he wasn't hitting his marks in the early returns and was toast.

Though that's not to say that the underlying theory, that state polls have overcorrected and district polls tell the real story, is wrong. I think there's a decent chance it's right actually. People like Tim Alberta have pointed out that in 2016 there were plenty of summertime and early fall district polls showing Trump and Republicans breaking through in some areas that were entirely dismissed because they didn't line up with what the national and state polling was saying. Now the reverse situation seems to happening.

[Fragile Bird]

There’s a $100 commerative coin celebrating Trump’s recovery from Covid-19 being sold by his campaign.

You cannot make this crap up.

[Zorral]

If there will be any structure and capacity for retrospective historiography for these years and elections, I for one would be deeply interested in seeing what they find out concerning the effect on the present election and what happens after due to this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/23/covid-us-spike-cases/

Quote

 

....The rising numbers put the nation on the precipice of what could be its worst stretch to date in the pandemic with some hospitals in the West and Midwest already overwhelmed and death counts beginning to rise.

The current surge is considerably more widespread than the waves from last summer and spring. The unprecedented geographic spread of the current surge makes it more dangerous, with experts warning it could lead to dire shortages of medical staff and supplies. Already, hospitals are reporting shortfalls of basic drugs needed to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus....

 

Yet states refuse to mandate any safety measures, even while the supplies of ICU, personnel, equipment, medical supplies and medications are running out, even as the death counts rise -- not to mention more cases of the sick.

Quote

 

....In Utah, leaders are trying to open a field hospital at an exposition center. State epidemiologist Angela Dunn warned that the health-care system is at capacity, hospital staff are exhausted, and Utahans are getting scared.

“You know, I just, I don’t know what to do anymore,” Dunn said at a Thursday news conference, pleading for residents to be more cautious. “I’m really not trying to scare anyone. I’m just trying to inform you of what’s going on.”....

 

What's happening in Belgium can happen here, and probably already is -- all sorts of institutional - public services are breaking down because too many people are sick to keep them going.  That's what we get for insisting on going on vacation starting this spring, refusal to wear masks, close the bars and gyms and churches, and the determination to have parties no matter what,  'coz so over covid, must exercise my right to have memories of being falling down howling stupid drunk in public, while other people wait on me.' 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/belgium-covid-hospitals-schools/2020/10/23/85358010-14a9-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

Quote

...Unlike in the spring, there are enough masks and gowns to go around. But months of preparation haven’t been able to avert a shortage of people. And a government decision to remove a mask mandate and loosen restrictions on social contacts this month has contributed to an acceleration of the virus...
 

 

[Martell Spy]

Netanyahu dodges Trump’s invitation to slam Biden on conference call
The Israeli prime minister’s refusal to explicitly criticize the Democratic presidential nominee comes 11 days before the U.S. election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/netanyahu-trump-biden-call-431737

Quote

 

Addressing his foreign counterpart, who was on speakerphone, Trump asked Netanyahu: “Do you think Sleepy Joe could have made this deal, Bibi? Sleepy Joe? I think — do you think he would have made this deal somehow? I don’t think so.”

Netanyahu hesitated before offering a halting answer: “Well, Mr. President, one thing I can tell you is we appreciate the help for peace from anyone in America. And we appreciate what you’ve done enormously.”

The smile on the president’s face faded as he listened to the prime minister’s response. “Yeah,” Trump interjected, gesturing toward a member of the White House press corps to ask a question.

 

 

[Denvek]

A number of people have been on Twitter (including the man himself) to remind us all that we're now less than one Scaramucci away from the election.

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Netanyahu dodges Trump’s invitation to slam Biden on conference call
The Israeli prime minister’s refusal to explicitly criticize the Democratic presidential nominee comes 11 days before the U.S. election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/netanyahu-trump-biden-call-431737

 

It's literally, like a child.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

There’s a $100 commerative coin celebrating Trump’s recovery from Covid-19 being sold by his campaign.

You cannot make this crap up.

While you mentioned the upcoming recession and considering selling your assets, I am not convinced those coins are a suitable alternative for a retirement plan. Having that said, just how many did you buy?

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

While you mentioned the upcoming recession and considering selling your assets, I am not convinced those coins are a suitable alternative for a retirement plan. Having that said, just how many did you buy?

You can run, but you can’t hide.