Timing of Tywin mercenaries in war of five kings

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

With a couple of hundred mercenaries? Come on!

If he was planning a true power grab it would not be some 3rd rate small company like the Brave Companions.

 

 

Are they even third rate? they are about a hundred and from what we know don't care about changing sides. 

You would be better off hiring one hundred individual sellswords.

[Ser Leftwich]

6 hours ago, Eliscat said:

Thank you! For bringing this subject up. It’s very shocking to me to see so many people just say Martins plot needed it and dismiss it. The author counts on his readers doing exactly this. This is how he fools us.
     Reread the part where the witnesses come before Ned to testify against the mountain. And remember the three little pigs houses. It was the wolf that huffed and puffed.

     It’s almost like this game was already set up to begin with pieces in place. Like Malister nods to Catelyn before she gets to the tavern where she encounters Tyrion and sell swords

Say what you mean. The three little pigs? A nod? Explain.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

45 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Say what you mean. The three little pigs? A nod? Explain.

Not by the hairs of my chinny chin chin!

                                                       

sure give me a minute I’ll try to find all the quotes 

[James Steller]

7 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

With a couple of hundred mercenaries? Come on!

If he was planning a true power grab it would not be some 3rd rate small company like the Brave Companions.

 

 

Tywin is a sadistic and ruthless man, but he never owns up to his own cruelty. He rationalists it, or he uses scapegoats like Gregor Clegane, Walter Frey, the Brave Companions, people who aren’t afraid to be labelled monsters for their actions while the intelligent monster, Tywin, continues to command respect even from his enemies. It’s how he always operates; even his actions during the Reyne-Tarbeck rebellions are shrouded in plausible deniability. He makes sure people suffer and die without getting blood on his own hands. That’s why it was so fitting that his own son should kill him in the least dignified place imaginable, in the least dignified way imaginable. 
 

My point is that he needs men like the Brave Companions to be ruthless and hated for it while he and his bannermen don’t get the stigma on themselves (except for Gregor and Amory Lorch, of course).

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Tywin is a sadistic and ruthless man, but he never owns up to his own cruelty. He rationalists it, or he uses scapegoats like Gregor Clegane, Walter Frey, the Brave Companions, people who aren’t afraid to be labelled monsters for their actions while the intelligent monster, Tywin, continues to command respect even from his enemies. It’s how he always operates; even his actions during the Reyne-Tarbeck rebellions are shrouded in plausible deniability. He makes sure people suffer and die without getting blood on his own hands. That’s why it was so fitting that his own son should kill him in the least dignified place imaginable, in the least dignified way imaginable. 
 

My point is that he needs men like the Brave Companions to be ruthless and hated for it while he and his bannermen don’t get the stigma on themselves (except for Gregor and Amory Lorch, of course).

I agree. It's not about how many men the Bloody Mummers bring, it's about getting the dirty work done in the dirtier way possible. 

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

47 minutes ago, Eliscat said:

Not by the hairs of my chinny chin chin!

                                                       

sure give me a minute I’ll try to find all the quotes 

Ser Raymun Darry took up the tale. "At WendishTown, the people sought shelter in their holdfast, but the walls were timbered. The raiders piled straw against the wood and burnt them all alive. When the Wendish folk opened their gates to flee the fire, they shot them down with arrows as they came running out, even women with suckling babes."
 

"They would of done the same for us, but the Sherrer holdfast's made of stone," Joss said. "Some wanted to smoke us out, but the big one said there was riper fruit up river, and they made for the Mummer's Ford."

house Wode has three little pigs as it’s banner. Hedgehogs. There’s another with a boar I forget what.

In any case the testimony of the witnesses contradict each other and almost appear coerced. In this tale we can see the comparison to the fairy tale of the three little pigs. We have the use of the word mummers also. Don’t forget Tyrion cuts off the hairs on the chin of Pycelle, the only man who defends the accused.

[Ser Leftwich]

12 hours ago, Eliscat said:

Ser Raymun Darry took up the tale. "At WendishTown, the people sought shelter in their holdfast, but the walls were timbered. The raiders piled straw against the wood and burnt them all alive. When the Wendish folk opened their gates to flee the fire, they shot them down with arrows as they came running out, even women with suckling babes."
 

"They would of done the same for us, but the Sherrer holdfast's made of stone," Joss said. "Some wanted to smoke us out, but the big one said there was riper fruit up river, and they made for the Mummer's Ford."

house Wode has three little pigs as it’s banner. Hedgehogs. There’s another with a boar I forget what.

In any case the testimony of the witnesses contradict each other and almost appear coerced. In this tale we can see the comparison to the fairy tale of the three little pigs. We have the use of the word mummers also. Don’t forget Tyrion cuts off the hairs on the chin of Pycelle, the only man who defends the accused.

Malister? A nod?

And this is what? This is nothing. The words 'straw,' 'wood,' and 'stone' are used, therefore, ?

This is a nothing sandwich.

This is nonsense.

I can also search for those terms near each other:

The straw on the floor stank of urine. There was no window, no bed, not even a slop bucket. He remembered walls of pale red stone festooned with patches of nitre, a grey door of splintered wood, four inches thick and studded with iron. He had seen them, briefly, a quick glimpse as they shoved him inside. Once the door had slammed shut, he had seen no more. The dark was absolute. He had as well been blind.

 

Catelyn shouldered aside the heavy wood-and-iron door and stepped into foul darkness. This was the bowels of Riverrun, and smelled the part. Old straw crackled underfoot. The walls were discolored with patches of nitre. Through the stone, she could hear the faint rush of the Tumblestone. The lamplight revealed a pail overflowing with feces in one corner and a huddled shape in another. The flagon of wine stood beside the door, untouched. So much for that ploy. I ought to be thankful that the gaoler did not drink it himself, I suppose.

Catelyn shouldered aside the heavy wood-and-iron door and stepped into foul darkness. This was the bowels of Riverrun, and smelled the part. Old straw crackled underfoot. The walls were discolored with patches of nitre. Through the stone, she could hear the faint rush of the Tumblestone. The lamplight revealed a pail overflowing with feces in one corner and a huddled shape in another. The flagon of wine stood beside the door, untouched. So much for that ploy. I ought to be thankful that the gaoler did not drink it himself, I suppose.

Everything is the three little pigs... which means?

 

What?

[Lion of the West]

23 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

With a couple of hundred mercenaries? Come on!

If he was planning a true power grab it would not be some 3rd rate small company like the Brave Companions.

Pretty much so. Its more likely that the Brave Companions heard of issues in Westeros, figured it would soon hit the fan and then made it over on their own to seek out Tywin, the richest guy, and got employed as Tywin knew that Eddard was not his friend and the relations between Lannisters and Starks already got bad during King Robert's return to King's Landing.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

ASoS Tyrion XI.

Quote

For a moment Tyrion could not breathe. "You?"

"Well, most of me." Jaime was gaunt, his hair hacked short. "I left a hand at Harrenhal. Bringing the Brave Companions across the narrow sea was not one of Father's better notions." He lifted his arm, and Tyrion saw the stump.

 

[Aldarion]

On 10/30/2020 at 9:38 PM, Mrstrategy said:

How did Tywin manage to ship to westeros the brave companions,Tyrosh free riders and other free comanies/sellswords without alerting anyone to his actions since it seem suspicious that Tywin managed to get his free companies and sellswords just in time for war of five kings

Remember that Tywin had started the war long before the war's official start. He must have been preparing for months if not years before Robert had died.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

9 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Remember that Tywin had started the war long before the war's official start. He must have been preparing for months if not years before Robert had died.

I think maybe some force kick started the war earlier than Tywin wanted.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

21 hours ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Malister? A nod?

And this is what? This is nothing. The words 'straw,' 'wood,' and 'stone' are used, therefore, ?

This is a nothing sandwich.

This is nonsense.

I can also search for those terms near each other:

The straw on the floor stank of urine. There was no window, no bed, not even a slop bucket. He remembered walls of pale red stone festooned with patches of nitre, a grey door of splintered wood, four inches thick and studded with iron. He had seen them, briefly, a quick glimpse as they shoved him inside. Once the door had slammed shut, he had seen no more. The dark was absolute. He had as well been blind.

 

Catelyn shouldered aside the heavy wood-and-iron door and stepped into foul darkness. This was the bowels of Riverrun, and smelled the part. Old straw crackled underfoot. The walls were discolored with patches of nitre. Through the stone, she could hear the faint rush of the Tumblestone. The lamplight revealed a pail overflowing with feces in one corner and a huddled shape in another. The flagon of wine stood beside the door, untouched. So much for that ploy. I ought to be thankful that the gaoler did not drink it himself, I suppose.

Catelyn shouldered aside the heavy wood-and-iron door and stepped into foul darkness. This was the bowels of Riverrun, and smelled the part. Old straw crackled underfoot. The walls were discolored with patches of nitre. Through the stone, she could hear the faint rush of the Tumblestone. The lamplight revealed a pail overflowing with feces in one corner and a huddled shape in another. The flagon of wine stood beside the door, untouched. So much for that ploy. I ought to be thankful that the gaoler did not drink it himself, I suppose.

Everything is the three little pigs... which means?

 

What?

Stooge:                                                        A: one who plays a subordinateor compliant role to a principal                        B: PUPPET 

There’s also the 3 stooges to consider. All I’m saying is we can find hints where we should be looking a bit closer. Things may not be as they appear. Like what if the court of witnesses were all lying? Or what if the attackers are all mummers dressed up to frame Ser Gregor?

     The easiest thing to compare it to is the Dothraki gold gifts. People say, 

     “gold has a much higher melting point than what could be achieved in a pot over a campfire.” “Martin doesn’t know what he’s writing about or the plot just needs it.” 
     But we all know the reason why the characters laugh In ASoIF and say it’s Easier to give enormous gifts of gold to the Dothraki and send them on their way. Lead.

     A lot of straw men, stooges, wolf in sheep’s clothing, little red riding hood, Alice in wonderland, references throughout the books each as a give away to something possibly deeper.

     Also, if each of your cited quotes had a straw, timber, stone building where the previous structures were destroyed and the stone one held out, I would then reconsider my position that there’s nothing to see.

[Aldarion]

6 hours ago, Eliscat said:

I think maybe some force kick started the war earlier than Tywin wanted.

Maybe Cersei acted sooner than Tywin thought? But I don't think so, given how he was already raiding Riverlands while Robert was still alive.

[frenin]

On 10/30/2020 at 11:05 PM, James Steller said:

He might have been quietly preparing for a power grab. Robert was driving the kingdoms into financial ruin, his court was full of spies and plotters, and now in comes Ned Stark to upset the balance. It makes sense that he’d brace himself.

... Why tho??

Literally the only thig he has to do for a power grab is murder Robert and later in AGOT,  Ned, any other violent grab is simply stacked against him as Robert or Ned as Hand have much more resources than he has. If he kills Robert and Ned quietly, the Throne goes to Joffrey and he can override Cersei the way he did in canon.

He doesn't need mercenaries to do that, he just needs Pycelle. I tend to lean to the fact that someone like Tywin would always be employing mercenaries just because.

 

21 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Remember that Tywin had started the war long before the war's official start. He must have been preparing for months if not years before Robert had died.

He did not, why would he do that?? 

Either that or Tywin's a really bad planner.

 

 

5 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe Cersei acted sooner than Tywin thought? But I don't think so, given how he was already raiding Riverlands while Robert was still alive.

He wasn't really raiding it himself tho, he has no interest in going against the crown by then, if so, he would've pulled what show Tywin did.

 

 

[Lion of the West]

On 11/1/2020 at 1:07 PM, TsarGrey said:

ASoS Tyrion XI.

Thanks for the quote. It seems I had misremembered.

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Remember that Tywin had started the war long before the war's official start. He must have been preparing for months if not years before Robert had died.

I feel I must disagree.

Only a very foolish lord would not have the plans ready to go in the best 1914-fashion in case that something would happen. And double more likely that Tywin had things arranged to quickly get his stuff together for a fight after the Ironborn already suprised him once and he learnt how badly it hurts to be taken unawares.

[Lion of the West]

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

 

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe Cersei acted sooner than Tywin thought? But I don't think so, given how he was already raiding Riverlands while Robert was still alive.

Yea, I was thinking Tywin may have been preparing after Jon’s death because he knew of the illegitimacy issue. Definitely something Cersei related. That seems the most logical answer. But it feels like I’m missing the bigger war issue.

[Aldarion]

20 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

Only a very foolish lord would not have the plans ready to go in the best 1914-fashion in case that something would happen. And double more likely that Tywin had things arranged to quickly get his stuff together for a fight after the Ironborn already suprised him once and he learnt how badly it hurts to be taken unawares.

Riverlands lords came to Ned Stark complaining of Mountain's raiding while Robert was still alive. Considering travel time would be around 15-20 days, this means that Tywin sent Gregor to start raiding even before he knew Robert was going to die. And such a campaign will have required some preparation in any case, so even if raids had started the moment Robert died (which, as explained, did not happen), that would still have meant Tywin had been planning them for quite some time before Robert had died.

21 hours ago, frenin said:

He did not, why would he do that?? 

Either that or Tywin's a really bad planner.

He did. See Gregor's raids.

[frenin]

23 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

He did. See Gregor's raids.

He sent Gregor because Cat kidnapped Tyrion, but unless he months or years before the events that said kidnapping was going to happen,  I really don't know how he could've been preparing for that war. We're told that both Riverrun and Casterly Rock are calling the banners then, he had prepared nothing. Nor they do anything from Ned's sentence to Robert's death.

 

27 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Riverlands lords came to Ned Stark complaining of Mountain's raiding while Robert was still alive. Considering travel time would be around 15-20 days, this means that Tywin sent Gregor to start raiding even before he knew Robert was going to die. And such a campaign will have required some preparation in any case, so even if raids had started the moment Robert died (which, as explained, did not happen), that would still have meant Tywin had been planning them for quite some time before Robert had died.

The raids are in response to the kidnapping, solely in response to the kidnapping and we know why Tywin did it and more importantly, both Ned and Hoster Tully know why he's doing it.

 

Quote

“The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.” Thank the gods for old Lord Hoster, then. Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he’d sent Ser Gregor to burn and pillage— pillage— and Ned did not doubt that he had— he’d taken care to see that he rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of a common brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king’s peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Tywin was simply goading Riverrun into breaking the King's Peace, become traitors and attack them with impunity, none of this take months or years to plan, nor Tywin had any beef with the Riverlands before the Innkeep's events.

After Robert's death, Ned's imprisonment and Joffrey's ascension, Tywin doesn't really need that cloak to hide behind and he just attacks the Riverlands, he doesn't have to answer to anyone anymore as far as he's concerned.

[Lion of the West]

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Riverlands lords came to Ned Stark complaining of Mountain's raiding while Robert was still alive. Considering travel time would be around 15-20 days, this means that Tywin sent Gregor to start raiding even before he knew Robert was going to die. And such a campaign will have required some preparation in any case, so even if raids had started the moment Robert died (which, as explained, did not happen), that would still have meant Tywin had been planning them for quite some time before Robert had died.

I don't see this at all. Tywin started raiding the Riverlands in retaliation for Riverland men-at-arms aiding Lady Stark (nee Tully) to kidnapp Tywin's son. Robert's death had nothing to do with it. I don't find it at all impossible that Tywin quickly organizes his raiding under Gregor Clegane and then at the same time sends out the orders to organize his main armies if things would escalate and the Starks would not back down.