Maithanet Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, S John said: I think if the election were in July or August Trump really would have been decisively defeated. He’s had too much time to massage the narrative and win back elements of his base. The nation as a whole is both used to Covid and tired of it, so it doesn’t shock me that it didn’t rate as the main issue with most voters. It is just amazing that being tired of COVID didn't translate into being tired of Trump doing nothing about it. The degree to which he has escaped blame for this amongst his base is astonishing. The Republican propaganda machine is STRONG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Maithanet said: It is just amazing that being tired of COVID didn't translate into being tired of Trump doing nothing about it. The degree to which he has escaped blame for this amongst his base is astonishing. The Republican propaganda machine is STRONG. They don’t care that he admitted to lying about a thing That was killing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, S John said: I think if the election were in July or August Trump really would have been decisively defeated. He’s had too much time to massage the narrative and win back elements of his base. The nation as a whole is both used to Covid and tired of it, so it doesn’t shock me that it didn’t rate as the main issue with most voters. I think school starting up again changed the math in people's heads. Having children doing remote school at home has got some parents freaking the fuck out in my town. Previously sympathetic and kind-seeming people started grousing about the school board and teachers' unions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: We could probably extrapolate the numbers based on current counts ratios to see what we get. Chatham: 57.7 Biden 41 Trump Fulton: 72.5 Biden 26.3 Trump Gwinnett: 58.3 Biden 40.4 Trump Forsyth: 66.5 Trump 32 Biden Harris: 76.7 Trump 22.2 Biden Laurens: 64.1 Trump 35.2 Biden Putnam: 70.5 Trump 28.6 Biden Sumter: 52.1 Biden 47.1 Trump Cobb: 56.3 Biden 42 Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, The Marquis de Leech said: Chatham: 57.7 Biden 41 Trump Fulton: 72.5 Biden 26.3 Trump Gwinnett: 58.3 Biden 40.4 Trump Forsyth: 66.5 Trump 32 Biden Harris: 76.7 Trump 22.2 Biden Laurens: 64.1 Trump 35.2 Biden Putnam: 70.5 Trump 28.6 Biden Sumter: 52.1 Biden 47.1 Trump Cobb: 56.3 Biden 42 Trump Is this good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said: Is this good? On similar analysis I'm seeing projections of Trump winning with 13,000 (he's at 18,000 now) to Biden winning by 5,000. So I'd say Trump is still most likely to win, but it's very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Maithanet said: It is just amazing that being tired of COVID didn't translate into being tired of Trump doing nothing about it. The degree to which he has escaped blame for this amongst his base is astonishing. The Republican propaganda machine is STRONG. Yep. They’re REALLY good at obfuscation. Just one example - making masks political, relentlessly pointing out that the doctors initially said something different about masks. Many people (most of us here) see that and think, ah they changed their minds on that when new info became available, great we will all do masks now. Yet for others it demonstrates yet another example of how the experts are wrong. They were wrong about Trumps chances, just like they were wrong about this and they’re probably also wrong about trade, globalism, healthcare, and climate change - therefore ... Trump 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: Chatham: 57.7 Biden 41 Trump You really would do better to compare it to the margin in Clinton/Trump results. The current Biden/Trump results leave out these mail votes, which have been very democratic across the state. So that makes those counties look more Trump friendly if you compare the current margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionAhaiReborn Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: Chatham: 57.7 Biden 41 Trump Fulton: 72.5 Biden 26.3 Trump Gwinnett: 58.3 Biden 40.4 Trump Forsyth: 66.5 Trump 32 Biden Harris: 76.7 Trump 22.2 Biden Laurens: 64.1 Trump 35.2 Biden Putnam: 70.5 Trump 28.6 Biden Sumter: 52.1 Biden 47.1 Trump Cobb: 56.3 Biden 42 Trump Not worth extrapolating based on overall tallies, mail in ballots have been and likely will continue to be substantially more favorable for Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 As we stew and fret over the late counts going on, let's just remember that in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the Republican state legislatures refused to allow election officials to start counting mail ballots until election day even though election officials asked for more time. Trump wanted the red mirage so he could declare victory early and stop the counts. https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/why-mail-in-ballots-were-counted-late-in-states-like-pennsylvania-and-michigan/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Right, mail-in would be more D than average, so if you extrapolate you would get the lower bound of Biden gains (which may be what the Trump friendly estimates are). It could easily be a couple thousand votes either way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illrede Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said: Biden needs to claim victory the minute there is a consensus call on PA to start establishing that narrative first. I would say that not conspicuously relying on a narrative has been a strength for him here so far- speaking hypothetically yet confidently instead of something more authoritative (on something that was ultimately an opinion with teeth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Extrapolating on these results gives Biden 26,711 Trump 21,977. Not enough. Hopefully the postal votes are different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, S John said: Yep. They’re REALLY good at obfuscation. Just one example - making masks political, relentlessly pointing out that the doctors initially said something different about masks. Many people (most of us here) see that and think, ah they changed their minds on that when new info became available, great we will all do masks now. Yet for others it demonstrates yet another example of how the experts are wrong. They were wrong about Trumps chances, just like they were wrong about this and they’re probably also wrong about trade, globalism, healthcare, and climate change - therefore ... Trump 2020 I think Trump's base was always going to rationalize Covid as "not Trump's fault" some way or another. However, I do think it may have helped energize the anti-Trump base, too. I think some of those proverbial suburban women might have just not voted this election instead of voting for Biden without Covid crystallizing their anti-Trump sentiments into action. So I think it may have helped Biden in places like Nebraska-2 and suburban Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 If nothing else,this at least shows which counties are the most Biden friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 From this NYT article by Nate Cohn, on the Georgia vote: Quote Then, later in the morning, the secretary of state said it was 50,000 ballots. And now, The New York Times is reporting that the state voting system implementation manager says there are 61,367 remaining ballots. The latter numbers come a lot closer to our estimates, and that would be enough for Mr. Biden to be a favorite. But caution is warranted, given the mixed messaging. We also don’t have a number on the provisional ballot count, but we’re in the territory where that’s a potentially crucial factor. And if you’re wondering, our election night forecaster, the needle, did assume some number of provisional ballots would break heavily for Mr. Biden, helping to make him a very narrow favorite to win the state. 2 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: Extrapolating on these results gives Biden 26,711 Trump 21,977. Not enough. Hopefully the postal votes are different.. The postal votes have been very different, and much more pro-dem. The extrapolations I've seen are still cautiously optimistic about Biden pulling narrowly ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 CNN is reporting that one of the problems with the count in Nevada is the fact Nevada sent out ballots to every eligible voter in Nevada because of Covid-19, and those ballots can arrive up until Nov. 10, although they must be postmarked by Nov.3. You may not see results from Nevada until Nov. 11, although the election should be setled by then. That seems appropriate, because you guys call Nov. 11 Armistice Day, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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