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US Politics - Poll Position

Relic

By Relic,
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OnionAhaiReborn Council Member

OnionAhaiReborn

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I've been thinking about Trump's post-presidency and the likelihood that he doesn't follow the normal model of staying quiet for a while. As horrible as this will be for those of us who are exhausted by the never ending Trump show, I wonder if that wouldn't be a good thing for Democrats, electorally. Maybe keeping Trump in the public consciousness keeps the midterms from being a referendum on Biden- which could be rocky if the economy is in recession and if, as expected, there's total deadlock in Congress- and gives Democratic voters a reminder of what they need to turn out against. 

I know this is getting ahead of myself, but I'm still in 24/7 sleep deprived election brain mode. 

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DaveSumm Council Member

DaveSumm

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2 hours ago, Ran said:

Someone is scraping battleground data from the NYT and it's really useful to seeing the state of things and the direction things are moving. Pennsylvania is looking very good. Georgia is tight. Arizona is tight. Nevada makes me feel a bit queasy, but I've gotten the sense that Ralston is also now more uncertain than he was because of the unusual dynamics of this race.

Those last two figures, what the trailing candidate needs and what they’re trending, is exactly what I’ve been looking for. I just want a real time graph of those figures instead of interview after interview with different people saying the same thing on CNN.

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Varysblackfyre321 Council Member

Varysblackfyre321

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6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Trump supporters in Maricopa county - "Count the votes"

Trump supporters in Detroit and Philly - "Stop the votes"

Maybe they should count, then stop when they're done. Just a thought. But as they also say "consistency is the hobgoblin of weak minds"

“Stop pretending we’re Democratic!”

 

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Varysblackfyre321 Council Member

Varysblackfyre321

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8 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Trump supporters in Maricopa county - "Count the votes"

Trump supporters in Detroit and Philly - "Stop the votes"

Maybe they should count, then stop when they're done. Just a thought. But as they also say "consistency is the hobgoblin of weak minds"

With things are going I think Biden will either win it by 5000, or Trump around 9000

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Relic Council Member

Relic

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Wow, I’m looking and when some US based boarders are posting... you need some sleep folks.  Obsessively watching the numbers will not make the count go faster.

:)

I've gotten 3 hours of sleep each of the past two nights. Im not even sure WHY im watching this as obsessively as I am. I guess i just really really really want/need the Trump show to end. 

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DaveSumm Council Member

DaveSumm

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3 minutes ago, Relic said:

I've gotten 3 hours of sleep each of the past two nights. Im not even sure WHY im watching this as obsessively as I am. I guess i just really really really want/need the Trump show to end. 

I can’t abide the thought that I got such little sleep the first night / day of this thing and then I might miss the moment when one of them crosses the line. Maybe miss a Trump ‘concession’ speech in which he spectacular doesn’t concede, and just whinges about how unfair it is. I know he already made one like that, but one where he’s actually lost would be so, so sweet.

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Relic Council Member

Relic

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1 minute ago, DaveSumm said:

I can’t abide the thought that I got such little sleep the first night / day of this thing and then I might miss the moment when one of them crosses the line. Maybe miss a Trump ‘concession’ speech in which he spectacular doesn’t concede, and just whinges about how unfair it is. I know he already made one like that, but one where he’s actually lost would be so, so sweet.

Even if Biden crosses 270 i doubt we're getting a concession speech anytime soon. But I don't want to get ahead of myself. Im still rather pessimistic about this entire shit show.

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Ser Scot A Ellison Council Member

Ser Scot A Ellison

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8 minutes ago, Relic said:

I've gotten 3 hours of sleep each of the past two nights. Im not even sure WHY im watching this as obsessively as I am. I guess i just really really really want/need the Trump show to end. 

I hear you my friend.  Don’t hurt yourself.  I say that in all sincerity with my best “Dad tones”.

:)

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Ran Council Member

Ran

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

What do you think going on with Arizona?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=FooterNavigation
The margins have have shrunk for Biden but how much of the vote actually remains for him?

Margins will narrow, for sure. Silver had this:

If it holds that the drop offs are less Trump than the batch they've reported results from last night, then that may be enough to stave off his surpassing Biden.

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Toth Council Member

Toth

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I find it quite terrifying that when I came home yesterday and checked German social media, I was immediately confronted with several users on several sites spreading the rumor of there being 100.000 more mail ballots than restricted voters in either Michigan or Pennsylvania or Georgia or Wiscounsin, always with that 100.000 number.

And today several of my students told me how they were confronted themselves with countless madeup scandals about Joe Biden being shared on Facebook. Here. In Germany.

The propaganda campaign to undermine the election results seems to be astonishingly global...

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The Marquis de Leech Council Member

The Marquis de Leech

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I've done some digging through county votes, and, yes. It is the massacre of the bellwethers:

Valencia County, New Mexico: First failure since 1948.

Vigo County, Indiana: First failure since 1952.

Westmoreland County, Virginia: First failure since 1960.

Ottawa County, Ohio: First failure since 1960.

Sawyer County, Wisconsin: First failure since 1960.

Juneau County, Wisconsin: First failure since 1960.

Hidalgo County, New Mexico: First failure since 1968.

Wood County, Ohio: First failure since 1976.

Essex County, Vermont: First failure since 1976.

Washington County, Maine: First failure since 1976.

Calhoun County, South Carolina: First failure since 1980.

Colleton County, South Carolina: First failure since 1980.

 

The longest-lasting bellwether is now Clallam County, Washington (successful since 1980). Blaine County, Montana (successful since 1916, except for 1988) correctly picked Biden too.

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broken one Council Member

broken one

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6 minutes ago, Toth said:

I find it quite terrifying that when I came home yesterday and checked German social media, I was immediately confronted with several users on several sites spreading the rumor of there being 100.000 more mail ballots than restricted voters in either Michigan or Pennsylvania or Georgia or Wiscounsin, always with that 100.000 number.

And today several of my students told me how they were confronted themselves with countless madeup scandals about Joe Biden being shared on Facebook. Here. In Germany.

The propaganda campaign to undermine the election results seems to be astonishingly global...

It does not suprise me as for the tinfoil internationale (inculiding 99% conspiracy theories' worshipers) trump is azor ahai from the start

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