US Politics: The vote is Joe's. Signed, sealed, delivered.

[Fragile Bird]

CNN is reporting that a memo has gone out to all Fox personnel involved with on-air matters not to use the term “President Elect” even after they call the election for Biden because of Trump’s lawsuits in various states.

And you thought Fox calling Arizona meant something.

Fucking assholes are going to be fucking assholes.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Ok, it looks like Biden is on his way to becoming President. I do want to bring up something I mentioned a few months ago, which was the odds of him winning the Presidency and not retaining the Senate. At that time, I was told this had a minuscule probability (based on polling), probably less than 1% (I think 538 had it at 3%).

Since it remains a very distinct possibility now, I'd like to suggest that some of the models could incorporate simulations that basically add an error into the average of polls and create scenarios out of that. I think a 3 point error in the polls (both national and state), just to give an example, could for instance still have a Biden win and Republican senate.

[Fez]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNN is reporting that a memo has gone out to all Fox personnel involved with on-air matters not to use the term “President Elect” even after they call the election for Biden because of Trump’s lawsuits in various states.

And you thought Fox calling Arizona meant something.

Fucking assholes are going to be fucking assholes.

Of course. Fox does need to re-establish their bona fides as the home of Republican resentment so they can properly profit off the Biden years rather than lose market share to OANN or something. They were never going to become a respectable network. 

But that doesn't mean the conspiracy theory that Murdoch put his finger on the lever to prevent an actual fascist coup from happening can't be true as well.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Ok, it looks like Biden is on his way to becoming President. I do want to bring up something I mentioned a few months ago, which was the odds of him winning the Presidency and not retaining the Senate. At that time, I was told this had a minuscule probability (based on polling), probably less than 1% (I think 538 had it at 3%).

Since it remains a very distinct possibility now, I'd like to suggest that some of the models could incorporate simulations that basically add an error into the average of polls and create scenarios out of that. I think a 3 point error in the polls (both national and state), just to give an example, could for instance still have a Biden win and Republican senate.

I am fairly sure that the odds on 538 of an R Senate / Biden win were never anything like that low.  On election day I think I saw something on 538 that the chance of a Dem trifecta was 72%, and the next most likely option was Dem House, R Senate and Biden WH, with like 21%.  This was always something people were worried about. 

The "solution" you're describing is very similar to what 538 already does with their modeling. 

[DanteGabriel]

Oh, this is a nice chart from Telemundo.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Well, we'll have to see the post-mortem, but I didnt think a systematic bias was ever plugged into their models. I'll need to look up what their projections were for Biden win and R-senate (it has to be somewhat low since Senate was 75% and Biden win 90%)

[Mindwalker]

YAY Puerto Ricans!

I still worry they'll be able to drag it before the Handmaiden's Court, so...

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Of course. Fox does need to re-establish their bona fides as the home of Republican resentment so they can properly profit off the Biden years rather than lose market share to OANN or something. They were never going to become a respectable network. 

But that doesn't mean the conspiracy theory that Murdoch put his finger on the lever to prevent an actual fascist coup from happening can't be true as well.

Right; this is damage control, probably at least partially to keep some talent from jumping ship. 

I still haven't had a chance to reconstruct a timeline, but reviewing the change in betting odds on Election Night is very interesting. Obviously it doesn't prove anything, but his odds bottomed out about 10 pm Tuesday night, then rebounded remarkably by 11:30, right about the time Fox called Arizona. They fluctuated throughout early Wednesday morning before solidifying mid-morning, but never dropped back down to his low-water point.

Now, imagine going through everything we've gone through since Tuesday *without* Fox having called Arizona. I think Trump would have had a much stronger message Wednesday morning if Fox hadn't thrown a wrench in the works by fucking up Trump's EC math.

The AP call for Arizona doesn't matter imo, because the whole point would be to cause loyal Republicans to question Trump's inevitability. Fox watchers would dismiss that call as fake news anyway. Apparently Trump hasn't yet completely poisoned the well against Fox.

[Fez]

It is weird though having a President and House of one party, and the Senate held by the opposite party (which might not happen still, if the GA run-offs go well or something unexpected in NC or AK happens). It happened in 2001-02, but only because Jim Jeffords switched parties and joined the Democrats. And it happened from 1885-1889 during Grover Cleveland's first term in office. And that's it, at least since the start of the current two party system in the 1860 election.

It is far more common for divided government to have the President and Senate aligned and the House be held by the opposition, or for both chambers to be held by one party and the Presidency by the other. Not sure if there's some intrinsic reason for it, or if it's an artifact of this still being a relatively small sample size. But it is an uncommon sight; assuming it happens.

[Martell Spy]

Great news to wake up to. Hopefully Trump lives a good long life and is constantly reminded by people he comes across that Obama was a 2-term President.

[Fragile Bird]

He’s a LOSER! A bigly loser!

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Well, we'll have to see the post-mortem, but I didnt think a systematic bias was ever plugged into their models. I'll need to look up what their projections were for Biden win and R-senate (it has to be somewhat low since Senate was 75% and Biden win 90%)

But obviously there's a huge amount of overlap between the 10% that Trump won and the 25% with a Republican Senate.  So if it's ~15%, that's very different from 1-3% you mentioned earlier.  15% is a very realistic chance.  And it's not like Senate Democrats chances had declined, that 75% was nearly as high as it had ever been (the peak was 78%). 

 

[Rippounet]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

He’s a LOSER! A bigly loser!

YOU'RE FIRED !!!!!!!!!

[Mindwalker]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Great news to wake up to. Hopefully Trump lives a good long life and is constantly reminded by people he comes across that Obama was a 2-term President.

AND his inauguration crowd was much bigger! As are his hands!

[drawkcabi]

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood!

[Maithanet]

I hope that Loser Donald Trump doesn't cause too much trouble in the next two months.  But other than going back to live in New York, his life won't change much.  He'll spend his days golfing, watching tv, and complaining about liberals on twitter, just like he did as president.  But now he'll do it as a Loser.

[Mindwalker]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I hope that Loser Donald Trump doesn't cause too much trouble in the next two months.  But other than going back to live in New York, his life won't change much.  He'll spend his days golfing, watching tv, and complaining about liberals on twitter, just like he did as president.  But now he'll do it as a Loser.

Not sure NY woild be very welcoming...

[BigFatCoward]

16/1 odds on Trump winning now. Its got to be worth punt in case of court shenanigans if nothing else. 

[Wilbur]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

... and complaining about liberals on twitter, just like he did as president...

Which is sort of ironic, given how he was not much of a Republican until he decided to run for President.  Trump is attracted to power, and is willing to embrace anything to achieve it.  https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/magazine/when-hillary-and-donald-were-friends.html

Although in the last twenty or thirty years, that willingness to do anything for power has become a Republican quality, unfortunately.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

16/1 odds on Trump winning now. Its got to be worth punt in case of court shenanigans if nothing else. 

I think you'd be wasting your money on that.  If Trump were going to win this in court, he would have had to act fast, and he didn't.  Getting thousands of votes thrown out in multiple states is not happening. 

I guess there's still a chance of a violent coup or something, but I'm not seeing those odds at 16/1.