UK Politics: Oh Ambassador you are really spoiling us!

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, ljkeane said:

Well their current dispute with Aztrazeneca is about the flow of vaccines between the UK and the EU, admittedly largely about the lack of flow of vaccine from the UK to the EU but still. The Pfizer vaccine is exported from the EU to the UK and the Johnson & Johnson one will be. 

I understand, but it does seem like a massively poorly thought out move. It’s effect in terms of resolving the situation would be minimal, and all it really seems to have achieved is enflamed tensions, revealed that actually the EU have very little real interest in the good friday agreement, and damaged the EU’s reputation.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

3 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Nobody is going to be sneaking vaccine into NI.   They aren't going to start stopping cars and trucks searching for vaccine!!!

People.  Whatever you are reading on social media, take a deep breath.  You are almost 100% safe to completely ignore it.

It would certainly be interesting if they did.  Right now they are saying they have the right to do just that. and they could do it.   Let me be clear I don't believe this will have any effect on the boarder and is more a threat and sabre rattling.

Its a political gesture, designed to bring the UK government officially into any discussions about redistributing the UK made AV vaccine.

[Heartofice]

I’m seeing on Twitter that the EU might be backing away from this decision now. Will have to see what happens 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I understand, but it does seem like a massively poorly thought out move. It’s effect in terms of resolving the situation would be minimal, and all it really seems to have achieved is enflamed tensions, revealed that actually the EU have very little real interest in the good friday agreement, and damaged the EU’s reputation.

it only actually effects the good Friday agreement if they follow through and impose customs checks.

Its a negotiation tactic similar to us threatening to walk away with No Deal.

Its also rhetoric designed for he home audience so they are seen as doing something.  I'm guessing this all means that the Published Contracts are not as favourable to the EU as they first thought and need to do something else.

[john]

It’s a general control, the NI thing is a side issue. If they’re making a point it’s to AZ and the other companies that the EU will take a tighter control of supply if necessary. There also must be a functional issue i.e they suspect there is a channel or a potential channel of unchecked vaccine movement, otherwise it’s too extreme a move.

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

it only actually effects the good Friday agreement if they follow through and impose customs checks.

Its a negotiation tactic similar to us threatening to walk away with No Deal.

Its also rhetoric designed for he home audience so they are seen as doing something.  I'm guessing this all means that the Published Contracts are not as favourable to the EU as they first thought and need to do something else.

I don’t think it really matters whether there are checks or not, or whether it’s a negotiating position or not. After 5 years of the EU telling us that the good Friday agreement was incredibly important to them, about how they absolutely will not let a border be drawn down Ireland, they create one less than a month after Brexit, for reasons that look to be little more than spite and covering of their own tracks.

It is actually quite jaw dropping. I won’t say surprising however. This doesn’t surprise me at all.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Yeah no I’m sorry, unless there’s actually a material reason, and there is actually some cross border smuggling scheme from Dublin to Belfast, this makes no sense to me. What point are they proving? “We’re really serious about this vaccine situation and we’re prepared to threaten the peace in Northern Ireland over it, even though it has nothing to do with it.”

[Hereward]

In other news, this is fun:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/scottish-podcasters-discuss-shooting-english-police/?fbclid=IwAR26U0-cbZYRuH6N_lO9ENcjuUcmT88xnOhzT-IsUqJJz4Tl3lxu6hnQzR8

[Maltaran]

5 minutes ago, Hereward said:

In other news, this is fun:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/scottish-podcasters-discuss-shooting-english-police/?fbclid=IwAR26U0-cbZYRuH6N_lO9ENcjuUcmT88xnOhzT-IsUqJJz4Tl3lxu6hnQzR8

I’m curious why he specifically thinks it would be Greater Manchester Police

[Hereward]

6 minutes ago, Stannis Eats No Peaches said:

Yeah no I’m sorry, unless there’s actually a material reason, and there is actually some cross border smuggling scheme from Dublin to Belfast, this makes no sense to me. What point are they proving? “We’re really serious about this vaccine situation and we’re prepared to threaten the peace in Northern Ireland over it, even though it has nothing to do with it.”

It's the way the EU behaves. Look at how they treated Greece during its economic crisis. I voted Remain, and would again if I had my time over. But that was purely for geopolitical reasons. We were quite successful within the EU; eastern expansion was our idea, the single market was our idea, lots of countries relied on us to object to EU Commission ideas, while pretending to be disappointed at our lack of community spirit; it was also a great way to counteract the eternal French attempts to fuck us over.! But this, while inevitable, and exactly what I feared, is just a great economic power throwing its weight around to punish the UK. Even my few Remainer mates are demanding consequences, and the Leave friends and family want to declare war!

[Hereward]

3 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

I’m curious why he specifically thinks it would be Greater Manchester Police

Northerners. Well dodgy.

[ljkeane]

Just now, Maltaran said:

I’m curious why he specifically thinks it would be Greater Manchester Police

They're basically a paramilitary organisation!

Looking at those guys I'm not sure I'd back them to successfully carry out a guerilla war in the Scottish Borders to be honest.

Boris Johnson's sticking the boot into the EU over the Northern Ireland border stuff. He's not wrong but it's probably not helpful.

[john]

The EU was pressured by member states for more control over vaccines made there (and as my wife just reminded me Belgium has a greater rate of disease than Britain so are arguably entirely justified in that). Then somebody said what about the NI back door? Oh easy, we’ll just activate that emergency clause we really weren’t supposed to use. I don’t think much thought was put into brexit or Irish peace, it’s just a governing body serving the people that give it power.

And if there’s going to be an outcry over harmless talk of shooting Englishmen, this will have a huge effect on all forms of Scottish social media.

[Hereward]

10 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

They're basically a paramilitary organisation!

Looking at those guys I'm not sure I'd back them to successfully carry out a guerilla war in the Scottish Borders to be honest.

We should stake out the pub and the local greasy spoon. I'm pretty sure we could apprehend them. I particularly liked the idea that the dastardly English would a} share the break up of the army with them, then b) invade anyway. 

[Heartofice]

So the EU has rowed back on the whole thing, declaring it ‘an oversight’ , pretty insulting to Ireland.

I’m sure we can all just pretend it never happened now.

[Hereward]

I wish I could nominate the EU Commission for the Nobel Peace Prize for uniting the DUP and Sinn Fein on something.

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

It's introducing a political angle to a discussion which was, up until now, a business and legal-based one

Yeah, no.

This has always been a political thing. The contracts say what they say, you can argue the toss about that, but why were the EU making such a public issue of it? Why the demand to publish the contract? Look at the public statements. Everything the EU have done is about sending the message to the public that they're doing everything they can and it's not their fault. Everything is being done for an audience. It's political.

47 minutes ago, Hereward said:

In other news, this is fun:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/scottish-podcasters-discuss-shooting-english-police/?fbclid=IwAR26U0-cbZYRuH6N_lO9ENcjuUcmT88xnOhzT-IsUqJJz4Tl3lxu6hnQzR8

Don't know all of these jokers, but yeah, this is definitely people from the 'headbanger' wing of the SNP. (Go look up Wings Over Scotland, a blogger who is very prominent in these circles.) I mentioned earlier how the Salmond case, the row over trans rights, etc. play into the internal difficulties in the SNP right now: these guys represent the type of moron who exist on the radical fringes of that faction. Bigots and fools.

[Werthead]

25 minutes ago, mormont said:

Yeah, no.

This has always been a political thing. The contracts say what they say, you can argue the toss about that, but why were the EU making such a public issue of it? Why the demand to publish the contract? Look at the public statements. Everything the EU have done is about sending the message to the public that they're doing everything they can and it's not their fault. Everything is being done for an audience. It's political.

That is correct, but it was all being done from the EU's end. The UK government, exercising what appears to be the first example of canny political intelligence in some considerable time, simply sat back and made some very neutral noises and didn't say anything more provocative than "well, we don't foresee problems with UK vaccine supply because we have a contract" (which is technically correct) and even said that they agreed that AZ should fulfil it's agreements with all customers and were restrained throughout the whole thing. Like Gove and Johnson a chance to thump that (British-made) tub and they'll go for it, but that didn't happen for once. It's the EU which started throwing its weight around and making political threats beyond reason in the situation.

The EU have now folded like a pack of cards and have egg on their face after what appears to be a phone call with Boris Johnson where he brought up the impact of such a move on the Good Friday Agreement...which no one on the EU end seems to have actually thought about. It raised tensions for a few hours for no good reason, and the EU seem to be well aware that they're the ones who were in the wrong on this.

Giving Boris a political victory of this kind (if relatively minor in the grand scheme of things) when he's badly clinging to any good news for dear life, is not a great idea when otherwise he might be considering his political future after the pandemic. The number of ardent Remainers coming out and saying, no, the EU was in the wrong on this one is quite startling.

[Hereward]

Also, Macron says the Astrazeneca vaccine doesn't work, so bearing in mind the German concerns, not sure what the problem is. Peace reigns.

[john]

They folded on the NI thing, which was right to do, but they’re still controlling vaccine exports which is not exactly ideal for worldwide vaccine distribution.