UK Politics: Oh Ambassador you are really spoiling us!

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Also, Macron says the Astrazeneca vaccine doesn't work, so bearing in mind the German concerns, not sure what the problem is. Peace reigns.

To be fair, he only said it was "quasi-ineffective," which is helpful, specific terminology. It was the Germans who I believe indicated they thought it wasn't effective at all on the over-65s, or nearly so.

The people who actually made and tested the drug and have seen it distributed to several million people already seem to disagree with that for now, so I'll go with their findings, I think.

[ljkeane]

11 minutes ago, Werthead said:

To be fair, he only said it was "quasi-ineffective," which is helpful, specific terminology. It was the Germans who I believe indicated they thought it wasn't effective at all on the over-65s, or nearly so.

That's not what they said or at least that's not what the German health authorities said. They very specifically refuted that when it was reported in the German media. What they said was they didn't think it'd been proven to be effective in the over 65 age group. Which is probably technically correct.

[Padraig]

20 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The EU have now folded like a pack of cards and have egg on their face after what appears to be a phone call with Boris Johnson where he brought up the impact of such a move on the Good Friday Agreement

I suspect it was the Irish government more than the UK.  

No offense but we are more likely to be listened to (right now).

But can't blame Johnson if he says it was a win.  Who wouldn't!  Certainly one of the poorer moments for the EU when it comes to NI.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, john said:

The EU was pressured by member states for more control over vaccines made there (and as my wife just reminded me Belgium has a greater rate of disease than Britain so are arguably entirely justified in that). Then somebody said what about the NI back door? Oh easy, we’ll just activate that emergency clause we really weren’t supposed to use. I don’t think much thought was put into brexit or Irish peace, it’s just a governing body serving the people that give it power.

Yes.  This would be closest to my thoughts.  And I think Mormont is right too.

While I would love to think that the EU spends its time thinking about the border, I'm pretty sure it doesn't.   So when people are wondering "how this could happen", it’s a good reminder that nobody naturally thinks about the small fish in the small pond.  The Irish government did a very good job in making sure the EU knew all about the border when it comes to negotiating the Brexit deal but the instinctive reaction will always be, the what again? 

I wouldn't be as critical of the EU as H7 but there is some truth to it.  You have to guide the Goliath.  The UK was a very useful input point into that.  But the EU did fight our corner when it came to the border, so thanks for that.  Previously anyhow.

2 hours ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I'm guessing this all means that the Published Contracts are not as favourable to the EU as they first thought and need to do something else.

I would interpret this as the opposite.  It feels it has a good case and it could spend a year proving it in court.  But that doesn't really help it get more vaccine now.   So what can it do now to make a loud statement (which is what Mormont said)?  I do think the EU is clued in enough to know that UK wouldn't back down because of the NI border.  I doubt the Tory's would really care.  As John said, the EU never thought about it.

[john]

28 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

That's not what they said or at least that's not what the German health authorities said. They very specifically refuted that when it was reported in the German media. What they said was they didn't think it'd been proven to be effective in the over 65 age group. Which is probably technically correct.

Yeah, from what I understand AZ made an assumption based on proven efficacy in a younger test group and other findings that suggested it would work similarly in an older group. So probably a fair assumption. But the German health service can afford to be more cautious than the NHS so they’re prepared to wait for more concrete proof.

[Heartofice]

7 hours ago, Padraig said:

I wouln't be as critical of the EU as H7 but there is some truth to it.  You have to guide the Goliath.  The UK was a very useful input point into that.  But the EU did fight our corner when it came to the border, so thanks for that.  Previously anyhow.

I think this would be true at one point in time but the UK's influence in EU was fading before we left, it was pretty clear the EU was going to do what it wanted and the UK was going to be sidelined, because we were never on the same path . Us not being in the Euro meant we were never going to be a full member of the club.
 

8 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

I couldn't be as critical of the EU as H7 but there is some truth to it.  You have to guide the Goliath.  The UK was a very useful input point into that.  But the EU did fight our corner when it came to the border, so thanks for that.  Previously anyhow.

 

Definitely a matter of opinion, but my view is that the EU was never interested in Ireland's border, because the main priority for the EU is only the EU project. As mentioned above, look at the Greek crisis to see how things go for small countries when there is a problem.

It was convenient for the EU to make all the right noises about protecting the Good Friday Agreement during Brexit negotiations, but I only ever saw it as a negotiating tactic. It put the British on the backfoot and made their position harder, and that's what the EU actually cared about. I was almost amusing every time Barnier would talk about how much he cared about the integrity of Ireland, but I really think he would have thrown the Irish under a bus if it would have gotten the EU a better deal.

So it doesn't surprise me one bit that the EU were prepared to put a border across Ireland as soon as it suited the EU, and that they did it without consulting Ireland or the UK. It doesn't surprise me at all.

[Heartofice]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55860540

WHO now getting involved, criticising the EU for 'vaccine nationalism'

On top of that, does Macron really sound very different to Trump these days?

[SeanF]

12 hours ago, Hereward said:

We should stake out the pub and the local greasy spoon. I'm pretty sure we could apprehend them. I particularly liked the idea that the dastardly English would a} share the break up of the army with them, then b) invade anyway. 

Fortunately, most self-declared militias in Western societies are laughable (eg the guy who founded the Waffen SS UK would not have passed out at Bad Tolz).

But, a handful are serious and competent.

[Filippa Eilhart]

13 hours ago, mormont said:

Yeah, no.

This has always been a political thing. The contracts say what they say, you can argue the toss about that, but why were the EU making such a public issue of it? Why the demand to publish the contract? Look at the public statements. Everything the EU have done is about sending the message to the public that they're doing everything they can and it's not their fault. Everything is being done for an audience. It's political.

Exactly. And it’s working, at least in the Polish media. The export controls are being reported as a step the EU is taking to protect its citizens. It’s showing that it’s taking concrete actions to keep the vaccines meant for the EU in the EU. I’d be interested to hear how it’s reported in other EU countries as well. Ultimately it doesn’t matter to the EU what the UK thinks.

And Pod and John are right about the NI thing. There was simply not much thought out into it because frankly if there wasn’t an Irish person (or at least an official who previously worked on brexit) working on the regulation no one else would have thought of the ramifications. It’s a non issue to most Europeans.

The regulation was written in like a day, where it usually takes months, if not years, to draft an act of law.

 

[Heartofice]

8 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Exactly. And it’s working, at least in the Polish media. The export controls are being reported as a step the EU is taking to protect its citizens. It’s showing that it’s taking concrete actions to keep the vaccines meant for the EU in the EU. I’d be interested to hear how it’s reported in other EU countries as well. Ultimately it doesn’t matter to the EU what the UK thinks.

And Pod and John are right about the NI thing. There was simply not much thought out into it because frankly if there wasn’t an Irish person (or at least an official who previously worked on brexit) working on the regulation no one else would have thought of the ramifications. It’s a non issue to most Europeans.

The regulation was written in like a day, where it usually takes months, if not years, to draft an act of law.

 

Sounds like populism?

[Padraig]

Just now, Heartofice said:

Sounds like populism?

Come on.  Everything is populism.  Brexit is populism.

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Come on.  Everything is populism.  Brexit is populism.

Yeah of course. I’ve rarely heard anyone admit the EU engages in populism though 

[Werthead]

4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I think this would be true at one point in time but the UK's influence in EU was fading before we left, it was pretty clear the EU was going to do what it wanted and the UK was going to be sidelined, because we were never on the same path . Us not being in the Euro meant we were never going to be a full member of the club.

Not really correct, because we had a veto which would have allowed us to put the brakes on future European expansion or integration almost at will. The EU could not sideline or ignore Britain any more than they could sideline or ignore France or Germany. The irony of course is that by us leaving, we have lost any say or control over the process.

Quote

Definitely a matter of opinion, but my view is that the EU was never interested in Ireland's border, because the main priority for the EU is only the EU project. As mentioned above, look at the Greek crisis to see how things go for small countries when there is a problem.

It was convenient for the EU to make all the right noises about protecting the Good Friday Agreement during Brexit negotiations, but I only ever saw it as a negotiating tactic. It put the British on the backfoot and made their position harder, and that's what the EU actually cared about. I was almost amusing every time Barnier would talk about how much he cared about the integrity of Ireland, but I really think he would have thrown the Irish under a bus if it would have gotten the EU a better deal.

So it doesn't surprise me one bit that the EU were prepared to put a border across Ireland as soon as it suited the EU, and that they did it without consulting Ireland or the UK. It doesn't surprise me at all.

I think the EU was genuinely concerned about the Irish border because they didn't want an armed conflict to take place on EU territory, which is what breaching the Good Friday Agreement risks.

However, it is correct that Ireland's status as an influential member of the EU extends only as far as is politically useful to larger countries, and there are limits to what the EU is prepared to do. The fact that it seems to have never occurred to the EU that their actions would breach an international treaty (which they were a party to!), nor that they needed to talk to Dublin about that, demonstrates that.

The fact that they did back off with alacrity once this was pointed out does indicate that the prospect of renewed armed struggle on the island of Ireland does still concern them though.

Quote

Ultimately it doesn’t matter to the EU what the UK thinks

As the vaccination programme in the UK continues to accelerate and more and more people are vaccinated and deaths and infections drop precipitously in the coming months (which we hope is the case), then the UK will be in a position to divert vaccines to at-that-point harder-hit countries in the EU (probably starting with Belgium, Spain, France, the Czech Republic and Italy), as well as Ireland as the only country we share a land border with. Whilst it shouldn't from a moral standpoint, this latest round of events risks making that a political hot potato, and there will be arguments from Eurosceptics for diverting supply to help Brazil or India instead.

[Padraig]

I don't particularly want to get into a debate about the merits or dismerits of Brexit.  The UK can make its own decisions.

If you are EUsceptic, you are obviously going to view the EU's approach to the NI border with suspicion (during Brexit negotiations).  But it was the right thing to do.  You have to start there when you judge their decisions.  And even when it comes to yesterday's situation, they did row back very quickly.  Some governments would have dragged these things out for days.

And remember, the EU project only works if it seems that the EU will protect all its members, even the smallest.

As for populism.  The EU most definitely engages in "populism".  The basic idea of populism is that you try to keep your population happy?  And you definitely want them to think that you are trying to keep them healthy.   There obviously is a negative aspect to populism and while this added layer of bureaucracy isn't a great situation, it is the time we live in.

Edited to add: Trump and Macron?  Please.

[Padraig]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The fact that it seems to have never occurred to the EU that their actions would breach an international treaty (which they were a party to!), nor that they needed to talk to Dublin about that, demonstrates that.

It wasn't illegal.  As far as I know.  There is an Article in the EU-UK agreement that allows the EU to do this, if it has due cause.   But you are right, how they did it was all over the place.  A health crisis is due cause, but I don't think anyone is going to pretend that vaccines were going to be smuggled across the border into NI.

[Heartofice]

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Not really correct, because we had a veto which would have allowed us to put the brakes on future European expansion or integration almost at will. The EU could not sideline or ignore Britain any more than they could sideline or ignore France or Germany. The irony of course is that by us leaving, we have lost any say or control over the process.

Well I guess except for Cameron's veto that was essentially ignored.

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I think the EU was genuinely concerned about the Irish border because they didn't want an armed conflict to take place on EU territory, which is what breaching the Good Friday Agreement risks.

This suggests that UK government weren't concerned about this. The truth is that the border thing was really completely overblown, was barely even an issue until the EU decided to make it one , as a negotiation tactic. And it worked. Now its pretty clear that wasn't ever an issue for them, because soon as it doesn't suit them, they completely reverse their position.

19 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The fact that they did back off with alacrity once this was pointed out does indicate that the prospect of renewed armed struggle on the island of Ireland does still concern them though.

Here I think you are both being very generous to the EU. Much more likely was that they quickly realised, after phone calls from the UK and Ireland governments, and the huge outpouring of outrage, that they had totally cocked it up. Armed struggle in northern ireland was never at the forefront of their minds, not yesterday and not during brexit negotiations. 

14 minutes ago, Padraig said:

And remember, the EU project only works if it seems that the EU will protect all its members, even the smallest.

Except if you are Greek.. or owe them money.

15 minutes ago, Padraig said:

As for populism.  The EU most definitely engages in "populism".  The basic idea of populism is that you try to keep your population happy?  And you definitely want them to think that you are trying to keep them healthy.   There obviously is a negative aspect to populism and while this added layer of bureaucracy isn't a great situation, it is the time we live in.

I just find this all very odd. When the British engage in populism it's likened to Trump, it's horrifying. When the EU does it, oh well it's natural, it's a net positive. 

[Filippa Eilhart]

30 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Yeah of course. I’ve rarely heard anyone admit the EU engages in populism though 

I mean have you ever read any press releases? it’s pure propaganda :p

[Filippa Eilhart]

29 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 

As the vaccination programme in the UK continues to accelerate and more and more people are vaccinated and deaths and infections drop precipitously in the coming months (which we hope is the case), then the UK will be in a position to divert vaccines to at-that-point harder-hit countries in the EU (probably starting with Belgium, Spain, France, the Czech Republic and Italy), as well as Ireland as the only country we share a land border with. Whilst it shouldn't from a moral standpoint, this latest round of events risks making that a political hot potato, and there will be arguments from Eurosceptics for diverting supply to help Brazil or India instead.

annoying as this vaccine shortage is, it is only temporary. The EU has ordered enough vaccines to supply 3 times its population from several companies, with at least one more expected to be approved in February. I don’t think the EU is expecting Britain to “divert” their vaccines (apart from what we are legally owed under contract with AZ  )

[Werthead]

24 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

annoying as this vaccine shortage is, it is only temporary. The EU has ordered enough vaccines to supply 3 times its population from several companies, with at least one more expected to be approved in February. I don’t think the EU is expecting Britain to “divert” their vaccines (apart from what we are legally owed under contract with AZ  )

Britain is legally owed vaccines by AZ as well, and from the UK perspective the EU/AZ contract dispute is as irrelevant to that contract as the UK/AZ contract is irrelevant to the EU.

The difference is that the UK is suffering from COVID to a much greater degree, and AstraZeneca have to decide if they want to be in contract breach with two entities or just one, and keep sweet the entity that paid them a lot more money and a lot earlier for their vaccine deal.

A bad week to be working for AZ, I feel.

[kiko]

Seeing the rapid change of sentiment in this forum, I don't even want to imagine how it looks   over at the Daily Mail.

Is it already time to evacuate the good people living downriver of our damns?