UK Politics: Oh Ambassador you are really spoiling us!

[Hereward]

Just now, Spockydog said:

As much evidence as you have for yours.

What? The issues of fiscal deficits, constitutional entanglement and trading difficulties in the event of independence are facts. Even you alluded to that by saying they could be overcome. How that’s the same as your inaccurate claim that I love living under Tory government is incredible. Find one post where I have said so.

[Spockydog]

4 minutes ago, Hereward said:

 How that’s the same as your inaccurate claim that I love living under Tory government is incredible. Find one post where I have said so.

So you voted for Corbyn in November?

 

 

[Hereward]

No I didn’t. I didn’t vote for the Conservatives either.

[Spockydog]

Okay. Fair enough.

Just sick and tired of English people telling Scots what is best for Scotland.

And the fact that we are living under what is possibly the most corrupt and incompetent government ever to rule this island, the feeling is amplified by some orders of magnitude.

[Denvek]

1 hour ago, Hereward said:

Scottish trade is overwhelmingly with England, and where it does trade with the EU, through England.

I feel like the power of this argument (at least the second half) is going to depend a lot on how EU-Ireland trade sorts itself out over the next few months. If they can successfully reroute enough trade around the UK, the Yes side will be able to point at that and say that Scotland-EU trade can be managed through direct ferry routes as well.

Scotland-England trade is probably bigger than Ireland-England trade, but I also suspect that the economic argument won't change too many minds, and that anyone who has that as their main worry would already be on the No side.

[mormont]

7 minutes ago, Denvek said:

I also suspect that the economic argument won't change too many minds

Going to disagree on that one. I think that those minds that are capable of being changed will very much be focused on the economic argument. In 2014, the debate was almost entirely about the economy, in one way or the other, and I would expect that to be the case again. The (mainstream) Unionist argument will be 'Brexit may have been a mess, but why make things worse?' and even as a supporter of independence, I know that will have some traction.

[Spockydog]

8 minutes ago, mormont said:

Going to disagree on that one. I think that those minds that are capable of being changed will very much be focused on the economic argument. In 2014, the debate was almost entirely about the economy, in one way or the other, and I would expect that to be the case again. The (mainstream) Unionist argument will be 'Brexit may have been a mess, but why make things worse?' and even as a supporter of independence, I know that will have some traction.

The state of the post-Brexit, post-Covid economy will probably make the economic implications of independence less of a concern. I mean, if the economy is already trashed, what do Scots have to to lose?

Also, we get to go to war over what's left of the North Sea oil. 

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I think the problems we encounter with Brexit particularly with boarder crossings and trade, will highlight and demonstrate the issues that will be faced with a fully independent Scotland.  especially one that seeks to re-join the EU as that means a Hard boarder.

Now if Brexit actually turns out to be a success and as HOI predicts hardly anyone will notice it in a few years then that is a very good argument for Scottish Independence, since the biggest reason to stay is "project fear".

[Spockydog]

9 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I think the problems we encounter with Brexit particularly with boarder crossings and trade, will highlight and demonstrate the issues that will be faced with a fully independent Scotland.  especially one that seeks to re-join the EU as that means a Hard boarder.

 

I will fight anyone who claims that the problems we are facing today, particularly concerning border crossings and trade, are an inescapable consequence of the concept of Brexit itself, rather than a direct result of the mendacity and incompetence of the idiots supposed to be managing it.

[Hereward]

5 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I will fight anyone who claims that the problems we are facing today are an inescapable consequence of the concept of Brexit itself, rather than a direct result of the mendacity and incompetence of the idiots supposed to be managing it.

While I don’t dispute the government’s incompetence and mendacity, how could Brexit have been achieved without the economic and trade issues we are beginning to experience? 

[Spockydog]

20 minutes ago, Hereward said:

While I don’t dispute the government’s incompetence and mendacity, how could Brexit have been achieved without the economic and trade issues we are beginning to experience? 

Well, for a start, the Prime Minister could have negotiated a deal that didn't, at its core, fuck Business.

If we had a man of honesty and integrity at the helm, he wouldn't have thrown out the 'Oven Ready' deal he won the election on.

Without all the lies and brinkmanship and threats of breaking international law, this dreadful, damaging trade agreement would not have been forced through at the last minute, without any opportunity for Parliamentary scrutiny. 

In an alternative universe, British Business might have been correctly appraised of the new rules and regulations of this dreadful new trade deal, and been given ample warning about how to continue sending their products to the European market.

And countless British firms would not be going out of business.

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

3 minutes ago, Hereward said:

While I don’t dispute the government’s incompetence and mendacity, how could Brexit have been achieved without the economic and trade issues we are beginning to experience? 

exactly.   

If we had remained closely aligned with the EU trade would be a lot easier.   (yes the VAT thing is a total balls up)  but then as we plan on diverging, and Scotland wants to join the EU then your at least gonna face the same difficulties France has trading with the UK.

[Werthead]

What's not helping the argument is that the heaviest blow from Brexit so far has fallen on the Scottish seafood industry, who will be the first in line to vote to rejoin the EU if it removes the blockages they are currently seeing destroy their businesses (they were certainly happy to drive to London to protest in Westminster).

It would also be hard for the Conservatives and other parties arguing in favour the Union to make an economic argument when they've just spent five years saying that the economic argument for remaining part of a greater union is less important than the desire for sovereignty. They've just made the SNP's own argument for them.

Pretty much all of the arguments in favour of a continued union were made in 2014 and then carried the day only marginally, with one major difference: the assurance that Britain would be remaining in the European Union. Absent that, and with the promise of an improved economic circumstance for Scotland in rejoining the EU (regardless of the degree of that being true or not), a successful independence vote is more likely this time out. The SNP can argue for sovereignty and greater economic success.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Scotland leaving and aligning with the EU will allow successful trade with the EU, but (unless things change) really difficult trade with the UK.  Which one wins and is more important I guess depends highly on how badly we have fucked our economy with Brexit over a longer term.

The Argument for remain is not to have a hard board with England.  How much that is worth I don't know.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

What's not helping the argument is that the heaviest blow from Brexit so far has fallen on the Scottish seafood industry, who will be the first in line to vote to rejoin the EU if it removes the blockages they are currently seeing destroy their businesses (they were certainly happy to drive to London to protest in Westminster).

It would also be hard for the Conservatives and other parties arguing in favour the Union to make an economic argument when they've just spent five years saying that the economic argument for remaining part of a greater union is less important than the desire for sovereignty. They've just made the SNP's own argument for them.

Pretty much all of the arguments in favour of a continued union were made in 2014 and then carried the day only marginally, with one major difference: the assurance that Britain would be remaining in the European Union. Absent that, and with the promise of an improved economic circumstance for Scotland in rejoining the EU (regardless of the degree of that being true or not), a successful independence vote is more likely this time out. The SNP can argue for sovereignty and greater economic success.

By the same logic though the SNP made the pro-Union argument for the Unionists.

[Which Tyler]

2 hours ago, Hereward said:

While I don’t dispute the government’s incompetence and mendacity, how could Brexit have been achieved without the economic and trade issues we are beginning to experience? 

EEA?

[mormont]

Let's be real: the Tories will not show a flicker of hesitation in deploying exactly the same arguments they rubbished during the Brexit referendum in opposing a Scottish independence referendum. They'll simply say 'this is different though', and they'll be hypocrites, but they won't be 100% wrong. It is different. That's why I voted to stay in the EU but will probably vote to leave the UK.

Besides, even if the Tories lack credibility in making those arguments - even if they boycott the campaign - they're not the only Unionist party in Scotland. Labour and the Lib Dems will happily say the same things.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 minute ago, mormont said:

Let's be real: the Tories will not show a flicker of hesitation in deploying exactly the same arguments they rubbished during the Brexit referendum in opposing a Scottish independence referendum. They'll simply say 'this is different though', and they'll be hypocrites, but they won't be 100% wrong. It is different. That's why I voted to stay in the EU but will probably vote to leave the UK.

Besides, even if the Tories lack credibility in making those arguments - even if they boycott the campaign - they're not the only Unionist party in Scotland. Labour and the Lib Dems will happily say the same things.

Scottish Labour might be hesitant to go in all guns blazing given the price they paid for their pro-union stance in the last referendum.

We’ll see. I was relieved when Scotland voted No in the last referendum; definitely leaning closer to Yes this time.

[Hereward]

52 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

EEA?

Of course. But that’s just paying to be a member, accepting its rules but not having any say, let alone a veto, on what those rules are. Insanity. I can’t see Scotland accepting that, especially after also losing the financial transfer.

[Which Tyler]

43 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Of course. But that’s just paying to be a member, accepting its rules but not having any say, let alone a veto, on what those rules are. Insanity. I can’t see Scotland accepting that, especially after also losing the financial transfer.

Any form of Brexit was insanity, EEA was just the least insane version, and answers your question.

As for Scotland, I think they want to be inside the EU, not outside-but-less-insanely-so