Ukraine 13: Pavlov's Bellum

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Lots of fighting, but very little changes on the map.  Has the offensive started, or is this just an extensive "softening up" phase?  Because while Russian casualties have been high (and presumably Ukrainian casualties as well), there's been almost no discernable progress for Russia.  If this is the full effort, then the offensive looks to be failing.

There is some argument on that score between different observers, reporters and military experts. Some are saying these are probing attacks looking for a weak point in the line to hurl in the reserves, but that's not exactly how this war is being fought. Others are suggesting that Russia is still building up strength, but it doesn't have too many more reserves to throw into the fray. Others are saying this actually the main effort.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

During the fighting around Kyiv OS intelligence sources were using satellite thermal imagery to determine where heavy fighting was taking place.  I haven’t seen that since the Russians pulled back.

[a free shadow]

49 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

This seems exactly the kind of thinking of people saying Putin wouldn't invade

Ah, this seems exactly like someone who did not get the point.

Just because you were surprised by the Russian actions then (many weren't, very few where I am at least), don't let them keep you flinching at every corner, that's what they are working on.

I hope it is at least obvious that these two situations (ground invasion and nuclear weapons) are very different. And starting to speak of nuclear weapons as some viable line of thinking does not really do anything other than lend it credibility and more power to Russia in speaking about it. It also distracts from the ongoing very real fighting.

Russian army proved to be far worse at fighting than they would like it to be, so they are working extra hard on every other front, including nuclear intimidation, don't help them.

[Werthead]

45 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

During the fighting around Kyiv OS intelligence sources were using satellite thermal imagery to determine where heavy fighting was taking place.  I haven’t seen that since the Russians pulled back.

They've been doing that in Mariupol for weeks now,and on a broader scale right around the country.

Anyway, it sounds like having flirted with "just the Donbas," the Russians have now decided to go for the Novorossiya option. The dismantling of Ukraine is the goal and, although it might be impractical to take Kyiv and Lviv, it will not be necessary because "loss of the south deprives Ukraine of the chances of existing as a self-sufficient state." Of course, this is a military commentator's opinion and Russia may swing back to a much less ambitious plan if they continue to sustain heavy losses in the Donbas.

[Winterfell is Burning]

2 minutes ago, a free shadow said:

Ah, this seems exactly like someone who did not get the point.

Just because you were surprised by the Russian actions then (many weren't, very few where I am at least), don't let them keep you flinching at every corner, that's what they are working on.

I hope it is at least obvious that these two situations (ground invasion and nuclear weapons) are very different. And starting to speak of nuclear weapons as some viable line of thinking does not really do anything other than lend it credibility and more power to Russia in speaking about it. It also distracts from the ongoing very real fighting.

Russian army proved to be far worse at fighting than they would like it to be, so they are working extra hard on every other front, including nuclear intimidation, don't help them.

I know the situations aren't the same, but in both cases people were saying it's inconceivable Russia crosses a line just because they don't want to, as it would causes a fundamental shift in international relations and how they see the world. But no, I don't see the possibility that Putin will use nuclear weapons as something that has to make Ukraine surrender immediately or take any deal that is offered.

[Ran]

@Ser Scot A Ellison'

Arson and vandalism of conscript stations have been happening since the start of the war.

On a different note, I've posted about the Youtube channel 1420, run by a young group of Russians. They do street interviews on various topics, and of late of course have asked questions about the conflict. They've posted a community update about the fact that Rosgvardia patrols have started around places they regularly interviewed people -- a local grocery store, a particular university -- and that some students who they have interviewed have since been warned off of giving further interviews by the university administrators.

Their videos are very interesting to watch and I recommend them.

@Werthead

"The Russians have decided" seems very strong to say based on some random analyst making remarks to media. A survey of recent media clips from Russian TV shows and news shows a complete wild west of disinformation, wishful thinking, saber rattling, etc.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

This seems exactly the kind of thinking of people saying Putin wouldn't invade

I thought Putin was going to invade and have never thought he will go down the nuclear path. That literally means the end of Russia as we know it given such an act cannot go unpunished. 

[Maithanet]

I agree that Russian messaging is consistently all over the map.  They are not particularly close to capturing Mykoliav, which is a necessary prerequisite to assaulting Odessa.  So any claim that Russia will cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea is just wishful thinking at this point.

[Werthead]

Just now, Maithanet said:

I agree that Russian messaging is consistently all over the map.  They are not particularly close to capturing Mykoliav, which is a necessary prerequisite to assaulting Odessa.  So any claim that Russia will cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea is just wishful thinking at this point.

As noted in the report, the commentator says that the "second phase" focus will be Donbas. Odesa and Novorossiya will be the goal of a future "third phase." So this is not something they plan to do imminently.

As noted, this is not the official, public government policy, but it does accord with the comments from the Central District military commander last week.

[Winterfell is Burning]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I thought Putin was going to invade and have never thought he will go down the nuclear path. That literally means the end of Russia as we know it given such an act cannot go unpunished. 

I'm not saying it's likely, but I don't see it as impossible anymore.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

I'm not saying it's likely, but I don't see it as impossible anymore.

It's still at a <.0001% of happening. They know that if they use a nuclear tactical strike, everything is fair game to be used against them. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

46 minutes ago, Ran said:

Arson and vandalism of conscript stations have been happening since the start of the war

I did not know that.  Thank you.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Who are these people… what the hell is their logic?  If the Russian dictator is willing to use nuclear weapons first… he is not rational… and you are putting yourself at the mercy of someone who has demonstrated they cannot be reasoned with.  That’s just stupid:

 

[Maithanet]

Still not totally verified, but Ukrainian intelligence is claiming that they strike on the command post in Kherson killed not one but two Russian generals and wounded a third.  Hope that is accurate.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Still not totally verified, but Ukrainian intelligence is claiming that they strike on the command post in Kherson killed not one but two Russian generals and wounded a third.  Hope that is accurate.

Retaking Kherson would be a massive boon in the war effort for Ukraine, especially given Russia's attempts to turn them into satellite states or absorb them entirely. 

[Werthead]

Looking at the situation, the Ukrainians have received a huge amount of new kit, some of which is replacements for stuffy they already use so no problems and could be on the battlefield tomorrow, some is brand new stuff but which is easy to learn and could be deployed in weeks or even days, and some is brand new stuff which is more complex and harder to get to grips with, and may not see action for several weeks or a couple of months.

I think this has created a dilemma for Ukraine where it really needs to mount counter-attacks. It certainly has the numbers and we've seen they have the motivation, morale, organisational skills and intelligence. However, they need to punch through with heavy equipment and I think the current supply situation is creating a dilemma over whether to counter-attack hard now or wait for heavier equipment to arrive to be more certain of victory when they do attack. Attacking now might fail because they don't have all the best equipment suppliers have promised them; leave it until later, and it might fail because the Russians are entrenched and dug in.

I think a key issue is that Russian air superiority over Russian-held territory, where Ukraine can't roll forwards heavy AA without it possibly being targeted, is a problem. Their MANPADS are performing superbly against helicopters, UAVs and in a few isolated cases, aircraft, but the Russians do seem to be finding some stand-off munitions to use in concert with artillery. Whilst those remain unengaged and the Russians aren't rushing forward massed formations of troops, the Ukrainian advantages in earlier engagements are not being brought to bear here in the same way.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Who are these people… what the hell is their logic?  If the Russian dictator is willing to use nuclear weapons first… he is not rational… and you are putting yourself at the mercy of someone who has demonstrated they cannot be reasoned with.  That’s just stupid:

 

Just took a quick look at the signees. None of them are particular relevant (anymore) in the political discourse. 70 seems to be the minimum age to sign that nonsense. (yes, I'm an ageist, deal with it.) 

They seem to be still stuck in the cold war logic, or lost at Woodstock. So it's probably best to ignore about a dozen geezers.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

48 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Looking at the situation, the Ukrainians have received a huge amount of new kit, some of which is replacements for stuffy they already use so no problems and could be on the battlefield tomorrow, some is brand new stuff but which is easy to learn and could be deployed in weeks or even days, and some is brand new stuff which is more complex and harder to get to grips with, and may not see action for several weeks or a couple of months.

I think this has created a dilemma for Ukraine where it really needs to mount counter-attacks. It certainly has the numbers and we've seen they have the motivation, morale, organisational skills and intelligence. However, they need to punch through with heavy equipment and I think the current supply situation is creating a dilemma over whether to counter-attack hard now or wait for heavier equipment to arrive to be more certain of victory when they do attack. Attacking now might fail because they don't have all the best equipment suppliers have promised them; leave it until later, and it might fail because the Russians are entrenched and dug in.

I think a key issue is that Russian air superiority over Russian-held territory, where Ukraine can't roll forwards heavy AA without it possibly being targeted, is a problem. Their MANPADS are performing superbly against helicopters, UAVs and in a few isolated cases, aircraft, but the Russians do seem to be finding some stand-off munitions to use in concert with artillery. Whilst those remain unengaged and the Russians aren't rushing forward massed formations of troops, the Ukrainian advantages in earlier engagements are not being brought to bear here in the same way.

I think time favors the Ukrainians.  They’re getting more effective while the Russian ability to engage is being degraded… what is the benefit of pushing off too early?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

16 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Just took a quick look at the signees. None of them are particular relevant (anymore) in the political discourse. 70 seems to be the minimum age to sign that nonsense. (yes, I'm an ageist, deal with it.) 

They seem to be still stuck in the cold war logic, or lost at Woodstock. So it's probably best to ignore about a dozen geezers.

I’m just floored by how short sighted and stillted their POV appears to be.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think time favors the Ukrainians.  They’re getting more effective while the Russian ability to engage is being degraded… what is the benefit of push off too early?

The possibility of losing the Donbas. Although the Russians haven't made a big breakthrough, it's also unclear if they've really gone all-in yet. Maintaining the counterattacks on the extreme ends of the line (Kharkiv and Kherson) could ease pressure on the JSO in the centre of the line and dissipate the force Russia is trying to bring to bear on a small area.