Ukraine 13: Pavlov's Bellum

[Loge]

43 minutes ago, Makk said:

Why attack kyiv with paratroopers and then a massive force if you are not trying to conquer the country? That was not a decoy. 

Regime change. That invasion force wasn't large enough to conquer and hold a country with a population of 40 million. See the  US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Werthead]

An unsourced claim that the Moskva had two nuclear warheads on board when it sank. Lots of criticism that no explanation was given for the claim, so it's been treated as conjecture for now. This analysis of how Ukraine might have sunk the ship is interesting, suggesting that ultimately it was a mixture of Ukrainian ingenuity, Russian inefficiency and a great deal of luck. 

The Ukrainian government has offered figures of 3,000 for its forces KIA. That's likely an undercount, but by how much is unclear. That's substantially less than previously believed, and could mean a loss ratio as high as 8:1 for the Russians (plus allies), which would be appalling and far beyond what would be expected (even given both poor Russian tactics and the advantage favouring the defender). Even if the Ukrainians are severely undercounting and the figure is twice that, that would still be a loss ratio of 4:1 in Ukraine's favour. Obviously this is not counting the severe civilian casualties from the conflict, which are now believed to (possibly far) exceed 10,000.

Rosvgardia forces have deployed their heavier equipment to Ukraine. This seems to consist of MI-8 and MI-35 helicopters, the former entering service in 1961 and the latter ten years later. The pictured helicopters don't appear to have been significantly upgraded recently (one had a crack in its windshield).

Mariupol is still holding a week after it was divided into two effective areas of conflict. Russian forces apparently taking heavy losses in two steelwork areas which have been well-prepared for defence. They are succeeding and grinding down Ukrainian resistance, but it is taking an absurd amount of effort, time and ammunition.

Russian efforts in the Donbas seem to be largely fed in piecemeal. Some suggestion that units reconstituted from the Kyiv front have been sent in to soften up the defenders before an offensive by fresh units, mainly located in the north, around Izium. However, Russian progress remains extremely slow. Ukrainian AA and artillery remains effective and apparently Ukrainian special forces have taken out numerous bridges in the region, forcing Russia to deploy bridge-building equipment, some of which has been lost.

The first indications of large-scale partisan activity in the area behind Russian lines running from Melitopol westwards. Russian forces are apparently tied down maintaining lines of communication and supply back to Crimea. This may explain why so many units have shifted east from behind Kherson, leaving the town possibly over-exposed. However, some indications that reinforcements in Crimea may have shifted to the Kherson area in the last day or so. Mykolaiv and Kherson are both being battered in artillery and counter-artillery fire.

Russia has sent a message to Washington, DC warning of "unpredictable consequences" for the US and allies continuing to supply Ukraine. However, it has been noted that they've already been threatened by Lavrov much earlier in the conflict with strikes on resupply convoys on NATO territory, so this isn't really an escalated threat. Russia followed up by barring UK officials from entering Russia (after doing the same to US officials weeks ago).

[DMC]

57 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia has sent a message to Washington, DC warning of "unpredictable consequences" for the US and allies continuing to supply Ukraine. However, it has been noted that they've already been threatened by Lavrov much earlier in the conflict with strikes on resupply convoys on NATO territory, so this isn't really an escalated threat.

Saw this yesterday.  Really don't get the point of sending a "formal letter," but ok.

[Werthead]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

Saw this yesterday.  Really don't get the point of sending a "formal letter," but ok.

Some have suggested that Russia might be trying to buy cover for an attack on supply convoys before they enter Ukraine or, more likely, attacks much closer to the Ukrainian-Polish border (with the risk of overflying and hitting Polish territory). The laws of war and the areas around what is allowed and not can be vague, and providing cover by letter can be an attempt to show diplomacy is still functioning.

The other possibility is that Russia is trying to ratchet things up for a very intense strike in the Donbas and is saying that allied supply efforts will justify that. It is difficult, though, when Russia has been supplying opponents of the US and other allies with very heavy weapons for literally decades.

[DMC]

Right, the natural intuition is they're trying to provide cover for something, I just don't get why they think that's going to actually change anybody's reaction.  "Oh, well ok, you sent a formal letter, we're good now."

[Loge]

Is Russia even able to strike at those convoys? You'd think they'd have done so if they could. As far as I have seen all strikes against targets in western Ukraine were missiles. The Russian air force seems to avoid that part of the country.

[Werthead]

Some good news. It appears that the Russians launched an attack on Lviv overnight with four cruise missiles air-launched from Su-35s. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all four missiles before they could reach the city.

3 hours ago, Loge said:

Is Russia even able to strike at those convoys? You'd think they'd have done so if they could. As far as I have seen all strikes against targets in western Ukraine were missiles. The Russian air force seems to avoid that part of the country.

In theory Russian jets overflying western Belarus could hit targets in Poland. That's why Poland's got a ton of new Patriot missile batteries. But hitting moving convoys is something Russia's been awful at in this conflict so far, especially at range. They're better off trying to identify supply depots, waiting until the convoy arrives and hitting them there. The problem is that the depots are kept secret and Russian overwatch of far western Ukraine is spotty.

Of course, they've been hitting some supplies in western Ukraine since the war started, so there's no change to things there.

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Some good news. It appears that the Russians launched an attack on Lviv overnight with four cruise missiles air-launched from Su-35s. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all four missiles before they could reach the city.

What does Ukraine have that can intercept cruise missiles? 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Corvinus85 said:

What does Ukraine have that can intercept cruise missiles? 

The Brits intercepted V-1 “buzzbombs” with fighters during WWII.

[Werthead]

8 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

What does Ukraine have that can intercept cruise missiles? 

Several S-300 batteries and I believe a number of smaller systems (which have a tendency to detonate incoming ordinance too close to the target, resulting in the damaged missile and debris still doing damage in the original target area).

[Werthead]

Russia has deployed 40 GRAD-1 rocket systems, apparently from the Russian Far East. These are the original GRADs, way before the modern system, entering service in the early 1960s with a fraction of the range and power of the modern GRAD systems. Ukrainian sources are bewildered the Russians even have any in long-term storage and assumed they'd been relegated to the scrapheap or museums.

At this juncture, if Russia rolled fifty T-34s across the border I would not be surprised.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia has deployed 40 GRAD-1 rocket systems, apparently from the Russian Far East. These are the original GRADs, way before the modern system, entering service in the early 1960s with a fraction of the range and power of the modern GRAD systems. Ukrainian sources are bewildered the Russians even have any in long-term storage and assumed they'd been relegated to the scrapheap or museums.

At this juncture, if Russia rolled fifty T-34s across the border I would not be surprised.

 

The Russians are really scraping the bottom of the barrel?  When the full stock of heavy equipment and arms gets into western Ukraine how long will it take to get the Ukrainian army trained to use what is being sent their way?

[Derfel Cadarn]

When they start rounding up horses, we’ll know they’re prepping for a cavalry charge

[HoodedCrow]

@Derfel Cadarn I confess that I stole your submarine joke, repeated it, someone else posted it on a different site( where it got 15 likes) and then it was borrowed and embellished with photos and it is going on over 20 likes. So , thank you, and well, they will need a bugle for the charge:)

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

23 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

When they start rounding up horses, we’ll know they’re prepping for a cavalry charge

I’ll feel bad for the horses.

[Derfel Cadarn]

33 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

@Derfel Cadarn I confess that I stole your submarine joke, repeated it, someone else posted it on a different site( where it got 15 likes) and then it was borrowed and embellished with photos and it is going on over 20 likes. So , thank you, and well, they will need a bugle for the charge:)

It was ‘adapted’ from similar jokes and memes on twitter, wasn’t originally mine

[Derfel Cadarn]

23 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’ll feel bad for the horses.

To be fair, by the time the colonel sognals the charge, lack of rations will mean only half the horses will be left anyway

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Russians are really scraping the bottom of the barrel?  When the full stock of heavy equipment and arms gets into western Ukraine how long will it take to get the Ukrainian army trained to use what is being sent their way?

Most of it's there already. The Americans only announced the package days after it had been agreed and sent, and some of it already arrived.

Analysts have warned against getting too cocky here. The Russians can hit the JSO area with a lot of artillery, GRADs and air-launched munitions, and the Russians are well-positioned on their flanks. The Ukrainians have a lot of advantages as well, but the Russians can still grind out a victory in the Donbas.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Most of it's there already. The Americans only announced the package days after it had been agreed and sent, and some of it already arrived.

Analysts have warned against getting too cocky here. The Russians can hit the JSO area with a lot of artillery, GRADs and air-launched munitions, and the Russians are well-positioned on their flanks. The Ukrainians have a lot of advantages as well, but the Russians can still grind out a victory in the Donbas.

Would a few hundred M1A1’s make a difference for Ukraine… or would American Tanks run into the same problem Russian Tanks are experiencing?

[Werthead]

11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Would a few hundred M1A1’s make a difference for Ukraine… or would American Tanks run into the same problem Russian Tanks are experiencing?

They would. Two US vets fighting for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion were discussing this in an interview and they agreed that the tactics the USA used in Fallujah (using Abrams as mobile strongpoints advancing carefully through the city, supported by infantry) would never fly in Ukraine, the tanks would be taken out too easily. They're more survivable - the Russian T-series (the 72, 80 and 90 are effectively developments of the same chassis) all tend to put extra fuel and ammo around the cupola, which is usually the first thing to be penetrated by an AT round, making a total vehicle loss far more likely - but likely not hugely so.

Still, Russia has succeeded in using tanks offensively in the conflict (if at a very high rate of loss), so Ukrainians could use tanks as a spearhead for their own counteroffensives. The problem is that training Ukrainian personnel to use those kind of tanks well enough in an integrated fashion would take months and months.

ETA: It sounds like production has now halted at all of Russia's tank factories due to lack of imported components. They only produce 200 tanks a year anyway - that's a third of Russia's verified tank losses in the last two months alone - but now they'll be producing zero. That will also exacerbate problems with reactivating tanks from long-term storage.