Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[Maithanet]

Just now, Wilbur said:

I also feel like the activity of throwing live shells into a big pile on the ground contains more basic, inherent risks, and doesn't provide much evidence of a sense of self-awareness or self-preservation on the part of the ammo handlers.

I would like to hope that they didn't throw them, and instead merely placed them carefully on the ground basically wherever was convenient because they job is to unload the shells, not keep them clean.  

[DireWolfSpirit]

On 8/26/2022 at 10:34 AM, A wilding said:

The Russians are bullies who specialise in brinkmanship. The idea is to convince people that they are capable of anything to make them cower. This has always been how they operate.

One has to wonder how the bullies would react to having the tables turned and being on the recieving end of the bullying. 

[Wade1865]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

I also feel like the activity of throwing live shells into a big pile on the ground contains more basic, inherent risks, and doesn't provide much evidence of a sense of self-awareness or self-preservation on the part of the ammo handlers.

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I would like to hope that they didn't throw them, and instead merely placed them carefully on the ground basically wherever was convenient because they job is to unload the shells, not keep them clean.  

Wilbur, et al. -- it's fun to speculate! I'm certain the RUS Soldiers didn't drop / toss the bulk of the shells onto the ground from the height of an ammo carrier or truck bed (though some do look as if they had, onto what looks like fairly soft ground); or worse, onto each other. Likely, as one post mentioned, the lack of equipment to download or lift the shells onto the ground is the reason why they placed them in multiple, haphazard concentrations. More likely, as another post mentioned, the lack of equipment coupled with the RUS framework of simplified / ruggedized action is the reason for what we saw. Alternatively, and most likely, the hasty emplacement was a fear-based measure against the threat of UKR accuracy and lethality by way of long-range artillery coupled with effective sighting methods (e.g. drones, partisans).

[Jace, Extat]

Call it what it is. They wanna die. You would too, if you were a Russian artilleryman 

 

[Wade1865]

2 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

One has to wonder how the bullies would react to having the tables turned and being on the recieving end of the bullying. 

DireWolfSpirit -- amusingly, and to my continuing amazement, they were turned. The hunter became the hunted, and what we see now is the consequence of failed brinksmanship covering RUS incompetence.

[Wade1865]

3 minutes ago, Firebrand Jace said:

Call it what it is. They wanna die. You would too, if you were a Russian artilleryman 

 

Firebrand Jace -- you know it, man. If I were a Russian redleg, I wouldn't want to return to the typical veteran's home.

"A 33-year-old from Russia is on a simple mission. To better the lives of ... war veterans."

***

Oh, Russia.

Russia. Russia. Russia.

[DireWolfSpirit]

13 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

I wouldn't want to return to the typical veteran's home.

Perhaps setting down the vodka glass for a paint brush or mop would improve things for them?

[Werthead]

According to the UK DoD, reports that Pisky fell and was captured to the Russians several weeks ago appear to be erroneous. Russian and DPR forces have entered Pisky but apparently the (very small) town centre remains contested.

This is the town Russia hit with a massive wave of thermobaric rocket attacks weeks ago because they'd given up on any other way of capturing it before rolling troops in. It looks like the attack achieved nothing but demolished a couple of apartment blocks for the sheer hell of it.

So the most significant Russian military achievement on the Donbas front in the past month appears to have actually not happened, and they're still fighting there.

Pisky hasn't just been contested since February 24th, but since 2014.

[Loge]

The latest update from the UK Ministry of Defence states that Shoigu is being side-lined because of the problems in Ukraine. It's actually astounding that he is still in office. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

17 minutes ago, Loge said:

The latest update from the UK Ministry of Defence states that Shoigu is being side-lined because of the problems in Ukraine. It's actually astounding that he is still in office. 

I sincerely hope no one competent is brought in to replace Shoigu.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Is anyone seeing any other confirmation of the report below:

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is anyone seeing any other confirmation of the report below:

 

I'm seeing other Ukrainian sources advising caution. 

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564192073506586624?s=20&t=UOzX-laKMmzi5qaL6jKiOQ

Edit: can someone please tell me how to post Tweets properly? 

 

The same source confirms, however, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson has started. 

[broken one]

51 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I'm seeing other Ukrainian sources advising caution. 

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564192073506586624?s=20&t=UOzX-laKMmzi5qaL6jKiOQ

Edit: can someone please tell me how to post Tweets properly? 

 

The same source confirms, however, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson has started. 

Now it has been announced by spokesperson for the joint southern command of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Still it does not mean this is true

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Information from the Russian side… interesting:

 

[Wade1865]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I sincerely hope no one competent is brought in to replace Shoigu.

Ser Scot A Ellison -- interesting, and shocked it’s taken so long (if true). Too little, too late, for Russia to profit off the inherent value in adaptation during war.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Russians shortening their lines to the East side of the Dinpro?

 

[Maithanet]

Lots of talk about a Ukrainian offensive in the South.  Not a ton of details, but what I can gather is:

- There was a very heavy artillery bombardment overnight, including artillery and ground attack aircraft.  Described as "perhaps the heaviest of the war so far" from the Ukrainian side. 

- Both the bridges over the Dnipro were hit again and are believed to be impassible for at least vehicles (probably could still walk troops across). 

 - There is a pontoon ferry at Kherson, but that is not going to be able to handle much (if any) heavy equipment. 

 - If there is heavy fighting, the Russians are going to run into supply problems almost immediately.  You cannot possibly supply tens of thousands of troops, along with their heavy equipment, aircraft, etc, with a single pontoon ferry. 

 It feels unlikely (to me) that we are going to see an immediate collapse (IE the next few days) of the Russian position.  Their backs are to the wall, and as they get pressed further and further back against the river, their forces only get more concentrated.  However, if supplies (particularly ammunition) truly run out, then it's probably game over.  So the question is whether the Ukrainians can sustain that level of pressure for long enough that the Russians break.  I don't know the answer to that, but I hope they can. 

IF (and this is a very big if) the Ukrainians can indeed compel a retreat across the Dnipro without their equipment, then they have virtually won the war.  Too much of the Russians best stuff is across the river, and it will take too long to replace it.  Not to mention the hit to morale and prestige if so many of their best troops are sent scurrying across a half destroyed bridge. 

[broken one]

I think it's a test. If Russians do not show "good will"  (escape) Ukrainians will withdraw. They do not seem to have enough men for successful offensive.

[Werthead]

The latest is that the Ukrainians have breached the first of three concentric lines of defence around Kherson. The second two are under continuous attack and have been for hours. Russian social media posts are pretty horrible, the death toll seems heavy. This sounds like the bombardment of the Donbas on a massively concentrated and far more accurate scale. In fact, it looks a dead ringer for how the Azerbaijanis blitzed the Armenian lines during the 2020 war. Drone and GPS and drone-guided artillery landed shells in trench lines and blew them to pieces inside from out. Those lost all defensive value almost immediately.

The lines around Nova Kakhovka are also under heavy attack, Russia has ordered a general evacuation of its civilian personnel from the town and the hydroelectric plant. The power lines were cut by artillery fire earlier, blacking out the region, but there's some reports they may have restored some power.

The dam road has been cratered, if the Russians pull back across it they'll also have to leave their heavy equipment behind.

 

Quote

 

I think it's a test. If Russians do not show "good will"  (escape) Ukrainians will withdraw. They do not seem to have enough men for successful offensive.

 

It varies by front, but in the entire theatre, Ukraine outnumbers Russia by something like 5-to-1.

Having enough troops was never in question, having enough supplies, heavy weapons, aircraft, tanks and artillery was more the debate, and thanks to western supplies, that's been pretty decisively answered in the last few weeks.

[Maithanet]

Russian war criminal Igor Ghirkin (who writes semi-candidly about the war) indicated that the Ukrainian offensive is primarily (if not entirely) on the east side of the Inhulets River.  If that is correct, that's maybe 70% the area north of the Dnipro, and does not include Kherson (except for some suburbs maybe).  But it does include Nova Khakovka Hydroelectric plant, and it would be by far the biggest counteroffensive Ukraine has launched thus far in the war.  That would be much more territory than changed hands in the entire Russian Donbas offensive of May-July. 

If that were successful, Kherson would be even more isolated.  The Russian supply situation (not to mention the civilians) would be pretty dire almost immediately.