US Politics: We Don’t Need No Stinking Lawyers

[DMC]

31 minutes ago, Fez said:

It's a been a while, but IIRC doesn't the data show Kerry pretty significantly over-performed compared to a generic Democrat in 2004?

Well, House Dems lost by pretty much the same amount (2.6%).  As for the generic ballot, RCP's final average was literally a tie at 45.4%.  Which really doesn't tell us much.  From what I remember, the polls were pretty accurate.  And while I wasn't thrilled with Kerry as the nominee - since I was still registered in New York I didn't even vote for him - I didn't think at the time any of the other candidates could have done any better.

Anyway, thinking about Dean (or Kerry for that matter) winning in 2004 just re-kajiggers everything.  Certainly means no Obama til at least 2012 - and probably means no Hillary either til then either.  Who knows who Dean would've picked as his VP, but if it was Edwards - who still would be plausible as a unity ticket - then what happens with all his shit later?  Presumably the GOP backlash happens earlier, which also means 2006 doesn't happen with Dean and Rahm running a very successful cycle (and hating each other all the while).  

So...really don't see how anyone could be sure we'd be better off.  Now Gore in 2000, yes, that would have preempted Dubya's..preemptive war.

[Wade1865]

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

This is actually more insightful than just about anything else you've posted.

 

      

[Zorral]

Local political leaders:

• The Times (piggybacking off Politico reporting) followed Eric Adams every night for 30 days and realized that the mayor who talks up the return of citywide nightlife mostly goes to the same high-end restaurant that his tax-evader friends own, orders the same fish, and then goes to the same private club he's not actually a member of.
• Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who presumably owns a home somewhere, has mostly been crashing with various friends and relatives in the Hamptons, Westchester and Manhattan.
• His successor, Gov. Kathy Hochul, meanwhile, appears to have a nice spread in Bumpass, Va., on a man-made lake that's heated by a nearby nuclear power plant that can make the water 70 degrees, even in the winter.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Biden's approval rating has shown a modest, but measurable bump. However, I am continually amazed by how his 538 average is shored up by Rasmussen of all the polling agencies, showing him at 47/52 (unadjusted) in the most recent one. His average itself is ~41/54.

Then again, their methodology was questioned a fair bit prior to most recent elections and it could be that Biden is the one benefiting from it for a change (I am presuming their partisan lean hasnt changed in recent years)

[Zorral]

That DeSantis/Vance rally in Ohio, for which DeSantis garbed himself in a full body diaper -

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ohio-newspaper-refuses-cover-desantis-vance-rally-absurd-press-restrictions

Quote

.... According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer/Cleveland.com, both DeSantis and Vance’s crews put absurd restrictions on the local and national press who tried to cover the rally. The rules were so binding that the newspaper not only chose to not send reporters to the event, but also published a “Letter From the Editor,” explaining just how aggressive the regulations were. Per the Cleveland publication, reporters were apparently told they would not be allowed to interview people attending the event who were not part of a list pre-approved attendees selected by organizers. Organizers also tried to impose rules on video shot at the event, reserving the right to use anything filmed for their own promotional purposes. ....

We reject the free speech-trampling rules set by J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis for covering their rally: Letter from the Editor

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/08/we-reject-the-free-speech-trampling-rules-set-by-jd-vance-and-ron-desantis-for-covering-their-rally-letter-from-the-editor.html

Quote

 

“When we cover events, we talk to anyone we wish. It’s America, after all, the land of free speech,” Cleveland.com’s editor Chris Quinn wrote ahead of the event. “At least that’s America as it exists today. Maybe not the America that would exist under DeSantis and Vance.

“Think about what they were doing here,” he continued. “They were staging an event to rally people to vote for Vance while instituting the kinds of policies you’d see in a fascist regime. A wannabe U.S. Senator, and maybe a wannabe president.” ....

.... The event was organized by Turning Point Action, a non-profit with ties to supporters of Donald Trump, but make no mistake about what it was. This was a rally for J.D. Vance, who wants to be your senator, who wants to take an oath of office to uphold the Constitution of the United States. You know. The document that says Congress shall make no laws abridging the freedom of the press.

And here he was, staging an event in which he thought he could tell the press who they could interview.

 

 

[DMC]

Looks like Charlie Crist will beat Nikki Fried by over twenty points in the Democratic primary for the right to get their ass kicked by DeSantis in the fall.  Very disappointing the Florida Dem primary voters went that decisively for the old, boring, retread, not-really-a Democrat option.

[Wade1865]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

So...really don't see how anyone could be sure we'd be better off.  Now Gore in 2000, yes, that would have preempted Dubya's..preemptive war.

DMC -- interestingly, that's what I was considering, after @Week's post on the implications of Howard Dean's Scream. What if George had lost and Al hadn't invaded ... no deployments or career; a lot less people killed and maimed; and, more global prosperity. No idea, but a fair probability.

[DMC]

Surprised I'm the first one to post this (I think) - White House to announce student loan cancellation, payment pause extension Wednesday:

Quote

Sources said President Biden’s intended measure will include at least $10,000 in loan forgiveness for borrowers who make less than $125,000 annually, as well as another payment freeze for roughly four months. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Zorral said:

That DeSantis/Vance rally in Ohio, for which DeSantis garbed himself in a full body diaper -

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ohio-newspaper-refuses-cover-desantis-vance-rally-absurd-press-restrictions

We reject the free speech-trampling rules set by J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis for covering their rally: Letter from the Editor

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/08/we-reject-the-free-speech-trampling-rules-set-by-jd-vance-and-ron-desantis-for-covering-their-rally-letter-from-the-editor.html

 

Glad to see they weren't afraid to call the behavior fascist. People need to stop worrying about offending people by using the term. It's more accurate than basically every accusation from the right that the left are a bunch of communists. 

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

Looks like Charlie Crist will beat Nikki Fried by over twenty points in the Democratic primary for the right to get their ass kicked by DeSantis in the fall.  Very disappointing the Florida Dem primary voters went that decisively for the old, boring, retread, not-really-a Democrat option.

Fried had no chance of winning. Crist, while unlikely, does. DeSantis' popularity has dropped 8 points recently to 50% and Crist has name recognition and potential crossover appeal, especially after Roe. I wouldn't bet on him winning, but Fried winning probably has worse odds than Luis Suarez starting the zombie apocalypse. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Fried had no chance of winning. Crist, while unlikely, does.

They equally have no (or a snowball's) chance of winning.  This is the widespread consensus of Florida Democratic operatives working for both (or neither) campaigns:

Quote

Asked if he had any hope in Democrats winning, Phillippi responded: “For statewide elections? God, no … The voter registration information is very telling and very predictive. You can’t write the story of how Charlie Crist beats Ron DeSantis unless there’s a major, major scandal none of us knows about right now or where Democrats register hundreds of thousands of new voters.”

Phillippi’s sentiment was unanimously shared by more than 20 top Democratic consultants, lawmakers and organizers in the state who supported either Crist or Fried and who spoke to NBC News for this article. Many spoke on condition of anonymity to freely express their pessimism about the 2022 elections, made all the more gloomy by President Joe Biden’s still-sagging poll numbers.

Five of these Democratic sources said that consultants for both Crist and Fried privately confided to others that they just wanted to keep the race close against DeSantis, but they didn't believe either would have a realistic shot in November, barring an unexpected turn of events.

It's also borne out in the public polling which shows no discernible difference between Crist v DeSantis and Fried v DeSantis.  It's just a tired canard about boring old and often retread candidates that never was true and certainly isn't in this day and age.

[Jaxom 1974]

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

They equally have no (or a snowball's) chance of winning.  This is the widespread consensus of Florida Democratic operatives working for both (or neither) campaigns:

And yet Demings looks to be very competitive with Rubiot-9000. Not sure I'd wave the white flag just yet.

Quote

It's also borne out in the public polling which shows no discernible difference between Crist v DeSantis and Fried v DeSantis.  It's just a tired canard about boring old and often retread candidates that never was true and certainly isn't in this day and age.

I think the more accurate take would be upside. I have no love for Crist, but he has won statewide before and knows how to run a campaign, whereas I keep seeing people write that Fried's has been kind of lackluster. 

And like I mentioned before, DeSantis is trending in the wrong direction. Might be wishful thinking, but maybe Trump stabs him in the back over the next few months to tank his reelection chances, which would be smart politically if he's really running in '24. 

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And yet Demings looks to be very competitive with Rubiot-9000. Not sure I'd wave the white flag just yet.

That's because Demings is neck-and-neck with Rubio in fundraising, whereas DeSantis vs. Crist OR Fried is David vs. Goliath.  They are fundamentally different races.  And even then, I'd say Demings only has about a 10-20% chance, tops.

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

whereas I keep seeing people write that Fried's has been kind of lackluster. 

Yes these would be the same people that repeat the same tired canard you did with no basis.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

And like I mentioned before, DeSantis is trending in the wrong direction. Might be wishful thinking, but maybe Trump stabs him in the back over the next few months to tank his reelection chances, which would be smart politically if he's really running in '24.

I've been wondering when one of them will knife the other. It's got to be coming at some point. I guess it's easier for Trump to move first though. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, DMC said:

That's because Demings is neck-and-neck with Rubio in fundraising, whereas DeSantis vs. Crist OR Fried is David vs. Goliath.  They are fundamentally different races.  And even then, I'd say Demings only has about a 10-20% chance, tops.

Which I understand, but I can't help but roll my eyes at the opening line of what you quoted. Val has a real chance and there's good reason to believe her position will improve going forward. 

And yeah, sure DeSantis is flush with cash, but the ground is loosening beneath him. What seemed invincible six months ago is not the same today and that's true of the entire cycle. I was certain Democrats were going to get massacred, and maybe they still will, but now is as good a time as any to have some optimism.

Quote

Yes these would be the same people that repeat the same tired canard you did with no basis.

An old, retread Republican running as a Democrat because that was the only lane left for him just smoked her in a primary where if she had done a good job she should have had the inside track. To me that signals she didn't do a good job.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Which I understand, but I can't help but roll my eyes at the opening line of what you quoted. Val has a real chance and there's good reason to believe her position will improve going forward. 

Again, Demings' chances, wherever you want to put them, are fundamentally different/incredibly higher than Crist's or Fried's would have been.  Which is why this is irrelevant.

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And yeah, sure DeSantis is flush with cash, but the ground is loosening beneath him. What seemed invincible six months ago is not the same today and that's true of the entire cycle. I was certain Democrats were going to get massacred, and maybe they still will, but now is as good a time as any to have some optimism.

This isn't an argument for why Crist would have a better chance at beating him than Fried.  It's not "optimism" to say the latter would have a worse chance than the former when all the evidence points to them having equally slim chances.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

To me that signals she didn't do a good job.

To me it signals way too many Democratic primary voters naively and frustratingly buy into the completely unfounded tired canard about "electability" - just like yourself.

[Zorral]

Regarding inherited wealth, even on small scale, White vs. Black, as I was saying:

 

 

[Zorral]

In our SECOND PRIMARY, held in AUGUST when no one's here, dayem, Gold beat out all of the candidates I preferred.

At least Nadler beat out Maloney (not my district).

[DMC]

Looks like Pat Ryan is going to win the special election for New York's (old) 19th district.  Another over-performance for Dems in a special election since Dobbs.

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Looks like Pat Ryan is going to win the special election for New York's (old) 19th district.  Another over-performance for Dems in a special election since Dobbs.

And worth noting that Ryan's campaign went all-in on abortion messaging post-Dobbs too. It would seem that message resonated, even in a state with some of the strongest abortion protections in the country.

Though I'm sure gas prices dropping for as long as they have helped too.