NBA - The upside down

[Wilbur]

Re KAT:

 

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Also, you don't get to stick out your chest as a Raptors fan. You do have a title, but you had to win it when the best player in the league at the time got hurt and another first ballot HoFer tore his ACL. Great accomplishment. I'm sure you rooted for Floyd Patterson over Sonny too praying for the same thing.

First of all, I picked Barzini over Sonny and that was proven at the causeway.

Second, oh thee internet, why must you engender these silly trash talking ways?  I've been frequenting bars for just about twenty years now.  In person, I've had countless discussions with countless drunks about my favorite sports teams - and theirs - and literally NEVER has it gotten to the point it so often gets on the internet about "fandom."

I'm talking Red Sox v Yanks 2004 shit.  Face to face, never a problem.  On here though...

Anyway I know it's often if not almost always meant to be good natured, but in written word it comes off a lot more hostile than if you're just fucking around in person.

Third of all, if I made a list of the 15 best players in the NBA right now, I'm fairly certain KAT wouldn't be on it.  But that doesn't mean he isn't in that range-ish.

Fourth of all, the Magic lost to the Bulls tonight.  BAD loss for the draft picks.  Orlando sucks at the second end of back-to-backs, now 1-9 for the season.  Moseley left in the second team because the starters were raising the white flag.  Pretty disappointing.  I can kinda understand with Fultz given his injury history, but these guys need to figure out how to show up two days in a row.  Banchero is decidedly in a midseason slump.

[Arakasi]

Bunch of talk on offence, some hint that they like him better than Embid. No talk about defence. Yeah going to have to pass on that view.

[Proudfeet]

What's the significance of an arbitrary top x number? KAT may or may not be top 15, but what should matter is whether he is clearly a tier behind the top players at his role or his contract. I mean, does anyone think less of Embiid because he's the odd man out for awards? Or Klay might not be anywhere close to being a first option at his peak, but his value as a second/third option would rank over many first options.

I think KAT is quite unfortunate with his career. He hasn't had a consistent defined role with his constant change of teammates/coaches. Maybe part of it is that he isn't good enough, or that his skills are an awkward fit, or plain incompetence on the Wolves, but he hasn't been put in the best position to succeed.

I'm not sure how we came to this conversation or what top 15 is supposed to signify, but if we look at Wiggins who has been in the same situation, and compare his reputation from when he was traded to after he won with the Warriors, I think there is a chance that KAT can look better than what he's shown. I'm pretty sure that Wiggins was known as a bad defender when he was on the Wolves too. Think Gobert's reputation as a defender is taking a hit this season as well. 

[Relic]

Is Kat even the best player on his team? Hope not.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 hours ago, DMC said:

Third of all, if I made a list of the 15 best players in the NBA right now, I'm fairly certain KAT wouldn't be on it.  But that doesn't mean he isn't in that range-ish.

KAT was third team All-NBA last season and there's an argument he should have been on the second team, but centers can get screwed that way. That's literally the best measurement of being top 15. 

People also quickly forget that he went through a serious health crisis in the offseason, causing him to drop a lot of weight going from the mid 250s to low 230s. That's significant for an athlete. Ant weighed more than him at the start of the season. Then early on he intentionally took a step back to help Gobert fit it. He would give up normal shots he'd take, even close to the rim, to try and feed him. And then he got hurt fairly early in the season. Holding all of that against him seems odd to me. 

1 hour ago, Relic said:

Is Kat even the best player on his team? Hope not.

Ant hasn't taken the leap we hoped for. He puts up some crazy stat lines, and when he's having an off night he still plays elite defense, but his lack of consistency is still a real issue. He's all peaks and valleys. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

KAT was third team All-NBA last season and there's an argument he should have been on the second team, but centers can get screwed that way. That's literally the best measurement of being top 15. 

It's really not.  And it's kind of laughable you think a panel of sportswriters voting is "literally" an authority on anything.  His statistics this year - basic or advanced - have decidedly not been in the top 15.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

It's really not.  And it's kind of laughable you think a panel of sportswriters voting is "literally" an authority on anything.  His statistics this year - basic or advanced - have decidedly not been in the top 15.

Again, he was constantly deferring to Gobert before he got hurt, hence why his assist average went up while his scoring and rebound averages went down, and he was still putting up 21/8/5 with a solid eFG%. Furthermore, this Wolves team has never really gotten to play together because literally every key player has been injured for a stretch at some point in the season with a perennial all-star missing more than half of it. It's been more bad luck than this experiment not actually working. 

[DMC]

To demonstrate, anyone making a list of top players has to start with the following that are clearly superior to KAT:  Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Durant, Embiid, Tatum, LeBron, Morant, Zion, Harden, Mitchell.  That's 12 already.  Then there's the next tier which (in part) is mitigated by injury - but KAT can't really claim any special status on durability either:  Booker, Davis, George, SGA, Lillard, Brown, Haliburton, Young.

Disregarding age and contract, I wouldn't trade any of the above for KAT straight up, and I don't think most anyone else would either.  And that's 20 players.  Tell me which six of the above you think KAT is better than.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Again, he was constantly deferring to Gobert before he got hurt, hence why his assist average went up while his scoring and rebound averages went down, and he was still putting up 21/8/5 with a solid eFG%. Furthermore, this Wolves team has never really gotten to play together because literally every key player has been injured for a stretch at some point in the season with a perennial all-star missing more than half of it. It's been more bad luck than this experiment not actually working. 

When your team feels the need to give up the farm for a player that plays your own position because of your own weaknesses - in this case defensively - it's really hard to say you're a franchise player anymore.  Now, the Wolves were almost certainly stupid in making that trade, but KAT's weakness on defense significantly decreases his value - and subsequently where most reasonable would rank him among the elite of the NBA.

Anyway I like KAT and always have.  But he has not produced as a top 15 player, and it's disappointing he hasn't.  He certainly has the ability to be and is still relatively young enough it's perhaps possible, so I hope he gets there.

[BigFatCoward]

@DMCyou missed Kawhi and Sabontis also. 

[DMC]

Just now, BigFatCoward said:

@DMCyou missed Kawhi and Sabontis also. 

Kawhi I left off cuz he's just SO unreliable.  I guess in that case I shoulda left Davis off too, but his problems seem to be actual injuries whereas Leonard seems to often sit just cuz he ate some bad Thai food the night before.

Sabonis, yeah, probably, but I'm still bitter about the Magic trading him WITH Oladipo for goddamned Serge Ibaka.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

To demonstrate, anyone making a list of top players has to start with the following that are clearly superior to KAT:  Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Curry, Durant, Embiid, Tatum, LeBron, Morant, Zion, Harden, Mitchell.  That's 12 already.  Then there's the next tier which (in part) is mitigated by injury - but KAT can't really claim any special status on durability either:  Booker, Davis, George, SGA, Lillard, Brown, Haliburton, Young.

Disregarding age and contract, I wouldn't trade any of the above for KAT straight up, and I don't think most anyone else would either.  And that's 20 players.  Tell me which six of the above you think KAT is better than.

I wouldn't trade KAT straight up for Harden, Mitchell, Davis, George, SGA, Lillard, Brown, Haliburton or Young. 

Again, what kind of small sample size are we using here? The team got completely changed after he was an All-NBA player, he made it clearly obvious he was trying to accommodate the change and then he got hurt right away after, again, losing over 20lbs in the offseason when he suffered a serious medical crisis. The fuck are we doing here? 

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When your team feels the need to give up the farm for a player that plays your own position because of your own weaknesses - in this case defensively - it's really hard to say you're a franchise player anymore.  Now, the Wolves were almost certainly stupid in making that trade, but KAT's weakness on defense significantly decreases his value - and subsequently where most reasonable would rank him among the elite of the NBA.

KAT was not the reason they were giving up a ton of inside scoring and couldn't rebound last year. He wasn't great at the former, sure, but he's been a top rebounder and maybe some help on the outside would make a difference. 

I understand why they made the trade even if I don't agree with it, but dude, if they didn't have Gobert after KAT's injury they'd be a bottom five team in the league. Instead they're the sixth seed, ahead of the defending champs, without their All-NBA star who is probably still their best player. Think about that for a moment. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I wouldn't trade KAT straight up for Harden, Mitchell, Davis, George, SGA, Lillard, Brown, Haliburton or Young. 

Well, then, I think you're silly.

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Again, what kind of small sample size are we using here?

I'm considering his prior seasons, but obviously what he's doing this season is weighted stronger.  That's always the case if you ask me to rank players of any sport at any time.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

KAT was not the reason they were giving up a ton of inside scoring and couldn't rebound last year.

KAT's fine on the boards, sure, albeit nothing special.  But as for giving up a ton of scoring and weaknesses defensively, of course he was the reason they traded for Gobert.  If he wasn't, you don't trade for Gobert.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

24 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, then, I think you're silly.

Making anyone of those trades would be at best lateral moves. For example, I think Young is trash and would not want him. I said so when they made the Luka trade in real time here and feel rather vindicated. Haliburton is having a good season and you want to talk about trading him straight up for a multi time all-nba player? Please. Brown, he's probably better, but based on team need and the fact he can't dribble which is what cost the Celtics the championship, pass. Lillard is old. SGA, Idk, tough call but he's on a terrible team with a super high usage rate. George is kind of an afterthought to me. Davis is always hurt, hard pass. Mitchell is like a 99 on offense and a 0 on defense. He's working out in Cleveland because they have their team built around him not being a defensive liability. And Harden is old, very obviously declining and still a toxic player. I never understood why the Sixers even wanted him. Embiid is that team and I'd probably want Maxey if we were just talking about the time period Harden can still be a good player. 

And I'll add, Booker, Curry, Luka, how's that going exactly? Obviously the latter two are better, but what is it producing? Booker is still an empty numbers guy, btw, much like Young. 

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I'm considering his prior seasons, but obviously what he's doing this season is weighted stronger.  That's always the case if you ask me to rank players of any sport at any time.

But again, you cannot overlook how a dude of that size lost that much sheer body mass, said he was feeling weak and then got hurt. He's not the same player he was last year. I'm not going to hold that against him if I'm doing a five year plan for a team. And I say that as someone who wanted the Wolves to trade him when his value was at its max. But don't suggest these lesser players because he's not been healthy in the short term.

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KAT's fine on the boards, sure, albeit nothing special.  But as for giving up a ton of scoring and weaknesses defensively, of course he was the reason they traded for Gobert.  If he wasn't, you don't trade for Gobert.

KAT doesn't actually give up that much that's purely his fault. What he isn't is a rim protector that can cover up other players' mistake, hence why Gobert was enticing. And if he's not on the roster and KAT gets hurt, this team is one of the worst in the league. Instead they're ahead of Golden State, Dallas and Phoenix, none of which have lost their best player to injury for more than half the season.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Haliburton is having a good season and you want to talk about trading him straight up for a multi time all-nba player?

I don't wanna go through every player because I just fundamentally disagree with you and there's no point, but no, Haliburton is not just having a "good" season.  He's averaging 20 and 10 with crazy efficient shooting.  Do you know how rare that is for a 1?  And his value has been demonstrated since he's been injured.  You started this conversation with how the Wolves have been able to accommodate KAT's injury and still remain competitive.  The Pacers, meanwhile, have not been able to do the same without him.  They're 1-9 since he went down.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But don't suggest these lesser players because he's not been healthy in the short term.

They're not lesser players.  As for his weight loss, I don't think it's as big of a deal as you're making it, but even if that's the case, it just supports my point - he's not the player he used to be.  And I'm ranking players as they are now and/or how they will conceivably perform in the future.

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And if he's not on the roster and KAT gets hurt, this team is one of the worst in the league.

K.  Again, this doesn't respond to the fact the Wolves have been able to maintain their standing in spite of KAT's injury.  Is that maybe because of Gobert?  Sure!  But it also wasn't worth giving up so much if you're still going to be a middling team.  That's a all-in, very near to championship level move.  And the Wolves clearly are not there, at all.  Plus arguing they didn't trade for Gobert because of KAT's deficiencies on defense is just absurd and not really worthy of a response.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't wanna go through every player because I just fundamentally disagree with you and there's no point, but no, Haliburton is not just having a "good" season.  He's averaging 20 and 10 with crazy efficient shooting.  Do you know how rare that is for a 1?  And his value has been demonstrated since he's been injured.  You started this conversation with how the Wolves have been able to accommodate KAT's injury and still remain competitive.  The Pacers, meanwhile, have not been able to do the same without him.  They're 1-9 since he went down.

Because the Wolves in theory had a top four team. Their best player went down early, they really struggled early as they were trying to fit line ups together, and now they're in the real playoffs where they were expected to be. Without their All-NBA star. Haliburton is a good player, I never understood why he was traded so quickly, but get out of here comparing a dude finally having a good season to a multi time All-NBA player just because the latter got hurt, especially when you're going to also list a number of players with more significant injury concerns going forward.

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They're not lesser players.  As for his weight loss, I don't think it's as big of a deal as you're making it, but even if that's the case, it just supports my point - he's not the player he used to be.  And I'm ranking players as they are now and/or how they will conceivably perform in the future.

He lost over 20 pounds in a very short period of time. Everyone knew it would take a while to recover from that. Let's not act like it's permanent issue. If your argument is KAT isn't going to be a top 15 player this year, duh. But I'd never evaluate the NBA on a single season. That's how you end up paying Trae Young all that money when he might not even be very good. 

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K.  Again, this doesn't respond to the fact the Wolves have been able to maintain their standing in spite of KAT's injury.  Is that maybe because of Gobert?  Sure!  But it also wasn't worth giving up so much if you're still going to be a middling team.  That's a all-in, very near to championship level move.  And the Wolves clearly are not there, at all.  Plus arguing they didn't trade for Gobert because of KAT's deficiencies on defense is just absurd and not really worthy of a response.

That's the thing, they were not expecting to be middling, and losing their best player kind of fucks up everything they were planning for especially when they spent the first quarter of the season trying to figure things out and then KAT went down. I've never said it was smart to give up as much as they did, but its turned out to have been idea considering they badly need Gobert without KAT and what they gave up, players wise, has amounted to nothing. We'll see what happens with the picks. 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Haliburton is a good player, I never understood why he was traded so quickly, but get out of here comparing a dude finally having a good season to a multi time All-NBA player just because the latter got hurt, especially when you're going to also list a number of players with more significant injury concerns going forward.

LOL, get out of here trying to say you wouldn't trade KAT for a guy that can score just as much as him at a more efficient rate while also running the offense..AND can actually play defense.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

If your argument is KAT isn't going to be a top 15 player this year, duh.

So your argument is what?  He WAS a top 15 player?  Or he will be eventually?  As to the former, I don't care, that's not the question.  As to the latter, it certainly doesn't seem like it from any objective vantage point.  But again, maybe he can be and I hope he does!

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's the thing, they were not expecting to be middling

K.  But they are.  And they were before KAT went down too.  Maybe you're right and they'll make a run in the playoffs.  Totally conceivable, much more crazier things have happened.  But nobody paying attention would classify the Wolves - with or without KAT - as title contenders right now.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

LOL, get out of here trying to say you wouldn't trade KAT for a guy that can score just as much as him at a more efficient rate while also running the offense..AND can actually play defense.

Score more? What are you on? 40 games verse an entire career? KAT's career average is 7.5 points higher. And he does it just as efficiently while averaging double digit rebounds. Trading these two players straight up is insane unless it was about the money.

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So your argument is what?  He WAS a top 15 player?  Or he will be eventually?  As to the former, I don't care, that's not the question.  As to the latter, it certainly doesn't seem like it from any objective vantage point.  But again, maybe he can be and I hope he does!

He was a top 15 player last year, no serious person would argue otherwise, and then he got hurt, but it's not some serious injury that will derail a career. 

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K.  But they are.  And they were before KAT went down too.  Maybe you're right and they'll make a run in the playoffs.  Totally conceivable, much more crazier things have happened.  But nobody paying attention would classify the Wolves - with or without KAT - as title contenders right now.

Idk, the West is not good. Anyone could come out of it and then get their skulls caved in by Giannis. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Score more? What are you on? 40 games verse an entire career? KAT's career average is 7.5 points higher. And he does it just as efficiently while averaging double digit rebounds. Trading these two players straight up is insane unless it was about the money.

LOL, stop judging things solely based on past performance.  That's not how people analyze players and more importantly it's not how people should analyze players.  Haliburton is a developing player only in his third year.  In KAT's first year he only averaged 18 points.  By any statistical projection, Haliburton should be the more productive scorer moving forward.

As for rebounding, you are way overrating this counting stat.  Rebound rate is a valid measurement, but most big guys logging as much minutes as KAT does should rebound at the rate he does.  If he didn't, that would be a concern.  Contextually, he's an average rebounder, that's all.

Whereas Haliburton's passing is clearly elite.  As is his scoring for a 1 - particularly, again, considering his shooting efficiency vis-a-vis a big man like KAT that inherently should be taking much more high percentage shots.  By any metric that actually takes context into account, Haliburton is objectively the superior player.  Not to mention younger and cheaper - even though I was explicitly disregarding those aspects when I made the list.

So, what I am on?  I'm "on" not viewing my own team's players with rose-colored glasses like you are.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

He was a top 15 player last year, no serious person would argue otherwise

Plenty of serious people would argue otherwise.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

58 minutes ago, DMC said:

By any metric that actually takes context into account, Haliburton is objectively the superior player. 

This is flatly a weird comment, especially when you keep removing all the context from KAT's situation. And yes I'd bet on a dude with several excellent years over a guy who just started to prove he might be an All-Star on a subpar team.

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Plenty of serious people would argue otherwise.

If I had to guess 95% of basketball writers and analysts would have said at the end of last year he was a top 15 player. Then he got hurt. Jesus, this isn't hard, and it's not even a Kawhi situation where you have to ask yourself if he's ever even going to be close to top 25 again.