Ukraine: Are ya winning yet.

[Wilbur]

Lots of reports coming out of the ranks of the Russian mobiks that they received some training before arriving at the front.

However, they were trained to do specific roles, like MBT mechanics, and then put into the ranks of infantry upon arrival at the front.  Without infantry training or equipment.

[Werthead]

Christ.

Quote

 

The head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries watched impassively as his fallen fighters were stacked up in black body bags in a gloomy makeshift morgue in eastern Ukraine.

"Their contracts have finished. They will go home next week. They died heroically at the front."

"So long guys. Happy new year!" he said, according to a video published by his own media outlet.

In a separate video Prigozhin could be seen telling a group of injured fighters that they were expected to stay at the front even if they had lost limbs. "The fact that they have been left without legs, without arms, without their eyesight doesn't mean they can go home," Prigozhin said. "They can carry out duties that don't require both legs. They can work as sappers. If another mine explodes, their metal leg will be blown off and we'll weld another one one."

 

A third Russian businessman has been found dead in Mumbai, leading to speculation that Russian intelligence operatives are moving around India more freely than they really should be.

 

[Gorn]

Wagner group is so bizarrely Evil with a capital E that, if they were villains in a mid-90s Van Damme movie, they would be dismissed as particularly unrealistic.

[Derfel Cadarn]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Christ.

A third Russian businessman has been found dead in Mumbai, leading to speculation that Russian intelligence operatives are moving around India more freely than they really should be.

 

I’m wondering how long until Prigozhin trips out a window or down a flight of stairs, or drinks some bad tea?

[Zorral]

There are no words to describe that Wagner guy.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

I’m wondering how long until Prigozhin trips out a window or down a flight of stairs, or drinks some bad tea?

Prigozhin is on the short list of guys with a realistic shot at taking power if Putin falls.  A man with a personal army (including an air force, heavy artillery, etc) can't be shoved out a window quite so easily. 

Not that he's invincible or anything, but it would be a huge risk for anyone other than Putin to go after him.  And so long as he remains loyal, I don't see why Putin would go after him.  Although I guess Putin could try and clean house and blame his subordinates for the entire Ukraine debacle, in which case Prigozhin would need to either flee or fight. 

Another thing that I read recently that I hadn't realized is just where Wagner stands in the military pecking order.  In terms of quality of units and equipment it goes basically like this:

1. Actual Russian special forces (what's left of them)

2. Regular Wagner Units

3. "Elite" Russian units like paratroopers

4. Standard Russian units with professional soldiers

5. Wagner Penal Units

6.  Recent Draftee Army Units (often called Mobiks, but I'm not sure if this is a slur)

7.  DPR/LPR Units

8. Rosgovardia and other police units

 

The point is that increasingly the Wagner units are some of the best equipped and best trained units in the Russian military.  Which is not exactly an endorsement of the Russian military. 

[Werthead]

It sounds like there is no love lost between Prigozhin and the regular military, in particular Gerasimov and Shoigu. Prigozhin has also been trying hard to woo Kadyrov into an alliance, apparently in the belief that when Putin dies Wagner and the Chechens will have the largest and most capable military forces in Russia and they could team up. However, Prigozhin does have a problem in that he's actually being forced to fight on the front line and expend his manpower, whilst Kadyrov is not. That's why he brought in the penal battalions, to soak up casualties to keep his main group intact, but it does look like Wagner has taken heavy casualties even outside that area. For his part Kadyrov is happy to accept compliments from everyone, because he is playing his own game.

The situation in the LPR is so bad that apparently almost every male of fighting age has either been killed, captured, defected or fled, so the LPR is now conscripting women to fight on the front lines. Obviously the elimination of that part of the workforce is causing what is left of the LPR to seize up and stop functioning effectively. The DPR is moderately better off, but not by a huge amount. The DPR seems to have benefited from making such a screeching fuss of their losses in Mariupol that they got Wagner and a lot of Russian regular reinforcements deployed to their area to share the losses, not to mention they nearly lost their capital to a Ukrainian offensive a couple of months ago (the Ukrainians are still on the outskirts of Donetsk City, crazily).

[Maithanet]

30 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It sounds like there is no love lost between Prigozhin and the regular military, in particular Gerasimov and Shoigu. 

That's why he brought in the penal battalions, to soak up casualties to keep his main group intact, but it does look like Wagner has taken heavy casualties even outside that area. For his part Kadyrov is happy to accept compliments from everyone, because he is playing his own game.

Going further on Wagner, I thought it was interesting that their tactics in Bakhmut are so rigid.  They know they're using poorly trained troops of questionable motivation.  So to get around this problem, they attack with small groups (10-20) and use detailed maps like google earth of the exact route that each soldier is expected to take.  Thus the entire action is planned in advance and each person or small group has an objective they're expected to reach.  Like a specific tree or a building or something.  The downsides of this plan are obvious, since there is no flexibility whatsoever to help minimize casualties or flanks the enemy or anything. 

When these low quality troops do get to their objective, they call back to headquarters and the actually good Wagner troops can come forward and exploit the opportunity.  This helps reduce casualties amongst the veteran + better equipped troops. 

(I think I got this from Perun's episode on Bakhmut, but I'm not 100% sure)

[Wilbur]

The other key thing to remember about Wagner is that they control diamond mines and lumber camps and other resources in Africa, so they have a source of income outside of Russia itself.

Very Bond villain.

[Wilbur]

Looks like Russia is starting to use its own export product.

 

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

Christ.

A third Russian businessman has been found dead in Mumbai, leading to speculation that Russian intelligence operatives are moving around India more freely than they really should be.

 

Wagner reminds me of Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger.

[Wilbur]

Excellent news for Ukraine:  The US will send them Sea Sparrow missiles, as the Ukrainians have figured out how to fire them out of their existing Buk launchers.  This will help close the skies above Ukraine to Russian terror bombings.

 

[Maithanet]

The US also announced it is also providing 50 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles yesterday, and then France and Germany announced they were providing IFVs as well.  That's a pretty big deal, as those vehicles are better than anything Ukraine and Russia have, and can really help with rapid advances.  These vehicles have the firepower to potentially fight/destroy Russian tanks in a pinch, but they are not themselves tanks (they do not have tracks). 

More will be needed if Ukraine is going to retake all its lost territory, but this breaks the seal on western countries providing IFVs, which have been desperately needed. 

[Fez]

What a long strange history the Bradley Fighting Vehicle has had. Once upon a time it was considered so ridiculous, and its development so troubled, that it ended up being the subject of a 1998 comedy starring Cary Elwes.

[Wade1865]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The US also announced it is also providing 50 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles yesterday, and then France and Germanyo announced they were providing IFVs as well.  That's a pretty big deal, as those vehicles are better than anything Ukraine and Russia have, and can really help with rapid advances.  These vehicles have the firepower to potentially fight/destroy Russian tanks in a pinch, but they are not themselves tanks (they do not have tracks).

Maithanet -- nah; Bradleys are tracked. And the grunts I knew really disliked them, though I’m sure they’d be value-added for UKR if employed effectively.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

39 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The US also announced it is also providing 50 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles yesterday, and then France and Germany announced they were providing IFVs as well.  That's a pretty big deal, as those vehicles are better than anything Ukraine and Russia have, and can really help with rapid advances.  These vehicles have the firepower to potentially fight/destroy Russian tanks in a pinch, but they are not themselves tanks (they do not have tracks). 

More will be needed if Ukraine is going to retake all its lost territory, but this breaks the seal on western countries providing IFVs, which have been desperately needed. 

Bradley’s are tracked vehicles… that aren’t tanks.

[Werthead]

Germany is sending a second Patriot missile battery.

I think it's a solid bet now that Ukraine will get Abrams, and then F-16s. It's just a question of when.

The former premier of Dagestan and a noted alliance of Medvedev has been killed in a hit and run accident.

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Bradley’s are tracked vehicles… that aren’t tanks.

Pedant's corner:  The French AMX-10RC are untracked vehicles...that are tanks.  Technically.

[Kalbear]

Yep. To be clear a tank isn't defined by its mobility type but by its role on the battlefield. IFVs are meant as primarily infantry support and transport; tanks are meant to take on other heavily armored vehicles and act as as primary ground attacker. IFV weapons are part of a mechanised combat group and are often the main weapon in a mechanized infantry, but their role is as part of the infantry - not as part of an armored group. 

[Wade1865]

41 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

... IFV weapons are part of a mechanised combat group and are often the main weapon in a mechanized infantry, but their role is as part of the infantry - not as part of an armored group. 

Kalnestk Oblast -- nah; Bradleys can be "part of an armored group." For example, within a Combined Arms Battalion (CAB), which is the primary maneuver element of an Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT). More, by way of task-organizing, commanders can establish temporary (including Company) units comprising armor and mechanized infantry (et al.) tailored to a specific mission and for as long as needed.

• Background. "The most noteworthy features of the CAB are the M1A1/M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks and M2A3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, composing the US Army's main armored force. As such, Armored BCTs are more oriented towards high-intensity, conventional warfare, although they did operate in Iraq in a counter-insurgency capacity following the initial invasion."

• USA Example (00:10-00:20).

• PRC Example.