I am not convinced by Lemongate

[Sandy Clegg]

2 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Can someone tell me if lemongate is true how does it affect the story besides Danys childhood home not being braavos ?

It's a controversial theory because of its spiralling implications. At a fundamental level, it calls into question -

• the reliability of a specific Daenerys memory
• by implication, the reliability of Dany's other memories
• the 'honesty' and maybe even the very nature of those around Daenerys, including her brother
• the nature of who/what she is
• by implication, how much of a reliable narrator she is
• by implication, how reliable is the world she presents to us through her POV chapters.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

It would mean that she was Rhaegar's child instead of Aerys's, and Jon's sister instead of his aunt.  She would still be a Targaryen princess though, and the last member of her House.  As Rhaegar's child, she might be less prone to madness than if she were Aerys's, though makes her story less interesting, not more.  Half the fun of her story is wondering if she loses it.  So yeah, it would seem to be much ado about nothing, so to say.

There is also the possibility that she and Viserys spent time someplace they weren't supposed to be, like Dorne.  That could raise questions about what the Dornish were up to.  Tyrosh has also been mentioned, though I fail to see the point there.

Tyrosh was mentioned because The George actually intended to have her in Tyrosh at one point. Before Game was published, though, he changed her location to Braavos. Presumably he did that for some reason. With Arya in Braavos, and Tyrion's character having an unresolved subplot there, that could be a partial explanation, and my guess is the Blackfyre plot would explain the rest of it. 

But I don't see any reason for a Dany switcheroo with Dorne. 

[Alester Florent]

5 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

It's a controversial theory because of its spiralling implications. At a fundamental level, it calls into question -

• the reliability of a specific Daenerys memory
• by implication, the reliability of Dany's other memories
• the 'honesty' and maybe even the very nature of those around Daenerys, including her brother
• the nature of who/what she is
• by implication, how much of a reliable narrator she is
• by implication, how reliable is the world she presents to us through her POV chapters.

All of that I can, increasingly cautiously, get on board with. Where I draw the line is where this morphs into "Dany is not the real Dany", and from there into "Rhaegar is not Aerys's son" and now apparently to "Quentyn is not the real Quentyn": it seems that if some of the theorists here are to be believed, unswapped babies are rarer than swapped ones.

[Frey family reunion]

15 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

All of that I can, increasingly cautiously, get on board with. Where I draw the line is where this morphs into "Dany is not the real Dany", and from there into "Rhaegar is not Aerys's son" and now apparently to "Quentyn is not the real Quentyn": it seems that if some of the theorists here are to be believed, unswapped babies are rarer than swapped ones.

I think GRRM is actively exploring themes found in fantasy and mythology.  This isn't historical fiction, even though he gets a lot of his inspiration from history and historical fiction.  He also gets a lot of his inspiration from mythology and other literature.

The idea of a changeling child is a fairly common theme in mythology and fairy tales.  Especially in celtic mythology.  The fact that he names one of his characters after Oberon, the fairy king in Midsummer's night dream has to put the possibility of a child swap on the table.

So you take into account Dany's memories which are inconsistent with the story of her birth that she's told by Viserys, that the insonsistency specifically deals with lemon trees which the author has repeatedly suggested are associated with Dorne and not Braavos,  and add in the fact that it was Oberyn who the author speicfically brings to Braavos from Dorne at a time when Dany/Viserys' sister would be too young to formulate coherent memories and I think you at least get the possibility that Dany, because she had the right look and perhaps the right bloodlines, was brought from Dorne to Braavos specifically so Viserys and Darry could use her to purchase an army.  And that's not baseless speculation, because that's exactly what ends up happening to Dany.

[Frey family reunion]

14 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I agree that Dany is treated as dispensable.   But that wedding was very public.  It affects the family honor.   Nobody is going to want to marry your sister if you publicly play tricks like that.

But Viserys might be mad enough to do it anyway, and as for Illyrio, he might not care; as he probably regards Viserys as dispensable as well.

But that's not the issue here.  If this theory were correct, then the parties who came up with the idea to dupe someone into giving them an army, already have possession of Viserys' true sister.  The marriage pact would have already been made.  At least the marriage pact for Viserys' true sister.

As for Viserys, he's still just a boy at this time.  You convince him that this is the only way that he can take his throne back and he'd be all for it.

For all we know, he was told that once he gets his army and takes his throne back, his true sister will be returned to him so he can properly marry a Targaryen, and not some "beast in the field".

ETA: that might explain this quote from Dany:

Quote

She had always assumed that she would wed Viserys when she came of age.  For centuries the Targaryens had married brother to sister, since Aegon the Conqueror had taken his sisters to bride.  The line must be kept pure, Viserys and told her a thousand times; theirs was the kingsblood, the golden blood of old Valyria, the blood of the dragons.  Dragons did not mate with the beasts of the field, and Targaryens did not mingle their blood with that of lesser men.  Yet now Viserys schemed to sell her to a stranger, a barbarian.

It’s interesting that Viserys never specifically told Dany that he would marry her.  She just assumed it because he kept telling her that Targaryens only mingle their blood with other Targaryens.  They need to keep their line pure.  But he never explicitly tells her that he was going to marry her.  And then he sells her to a barbarian which must have been a very puzzling thing for Dany based on everything Viserys told her.

But if Viserys knew that she wasn’t his real sister, then this might explain things.  The marriage contract between Viserys and Arianne wasn’t signed by Viserys and Dany seems to think that Viserys had no knowledge of it.  He never knew that he was promised to a Dornish girl.

Which makes me think that this is how they sold the plan to Viserys.  That they were going to keep his real sister safe so he can marry her when he takes his throne.  And in the meantime he had to raise this girl as his sister so they could use her to give Viserys his army.  

Edited April 13, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Crona]

36 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

All of that I can, increasingly cautiously, get on board with. Where I draw the line is where this morphs into "Dany is not the real Dany", and from there into "Rhaegar is not Aerys's son" and now apparently to "Quentyn is not the real Quentyn": it seems that if some of the theorists here are to be believed, unswapped babies are rarer than swapped ones.

I do have an alternate suggestion, that this means Dorne, Illyrio, Braavos and Tyrosh are in an alliance against the Iron Throne. This means Varys was actually working for Dorne in KL. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

@Frey family reunion, You are theorizing that Oberyn brought a silver-harired, purple-eyed girl, with early childhood memories of lemons and Dorne, to Braavos to exchange for Daenerys Stormborn, correct? if Doran Martell already had Daenerys, why did he send Quentyn to wed the pretender? 

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

@Frey family reunion, You are theorizing that Oberyn brought a silver-harired, purple-eyed girl, with early childhood memories of lemons and Dorne, to Braavos to exchange for Daenerys Stormborn, correct? if Doran Martell already had Daenerys, why did he send Quentyn to wed the pretender? 

I'm not sure I'm sold on this conclusions, but can still think of three good reasons that all breathe fire!

Edited April 13, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But that's not the issue here.  If this theory were correct, then the parties who came up with the idea to dupe someone into giving them an army, already have possession of Viserys' true sister.  The marriage pact would have already been made.  At least the marriage pact for Viserys' true sister.

It still impacts the family honor.  Perhaps they regard Drogo and his hordes as expendable as well, if they intend use him only for a few years before he finds out he has been sold false goods.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for Viserys, he's still just a boy at this time.  You convince him that this is the only way that he can take his throne back and he'd be all for it.

Sure.  It's his family honor being squandered by these others, and he may be mad enough not to care; and they may not care either.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

For all we know, he was told that once he gets his army and takes his throne back, his true sister will be returned to him so he can properly marry a Targaryen, and not some "beast in the field".

Could be.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

ETA: that might explain this quote from Dany:

It’s interesting that Viserys never specifically told Dany that he would marry her.  She just assumed it because he kept telling her that Targaryens only mingle their blood with other Targaryens.  They need to keep their line pure.  But he never explicitly tells her that he was going to marry her.  And then he sells her to a barbarian which must have been a very puzzling thing for Dany based on everything Viserys told her.

But if Viserys knew that she wasn’t his real sister, then this might explain things.  The marriage contract between Viserys and Arianne wasn’t signed by Viserys and Dany seems to think that Viserys had no knowledge of it.  He never knew that he was promised to a Dornish girl.

It's an interesting point.  Worth putting on a list of arguable clues.  But it is not necessary for his real sister to be alive for this point to have weight.   It could work either way.  If he thought she was a real targ, he would have wanted to keep her blood pure.  But since she is not (as far as he knows) a real Targ, he is perfectly happy to sell her to a barbarian.

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Tyrosh was mentioned because The George actually intended to have her in Tyrosh at one point. Before Game was published, though, he changed her location to Braavos.

He did not (as far as we know) change the location of the city but only its name.  The locations of these cities were published years later, after the names had long been decided.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Presumably he did that for some reason.

Well, he has the worldbuilding bug.  He wants us to suspend disbelief in the world he has created, and for that he wants Essos to have more than one city.

And of course, he might have mentioned Tyrosh for other reasons too, which we are all free to guess at.

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

With Arya in Braavos, and Tyrion's character having an unresolved subplot there, that could be a partial explanation, and my guess is the Blackfyre plot would explain the rest of it. 

Perfectly possible.

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, Crona said:

I do have an alternate suggestion, that this means Dorne, Illyrio, Braavos and Tyrosh are in an alliance against the Iron Throne. This means Varys was actually working for Dorne in KL. 

I am convinced that Doran & Mellario, Varys & Illyrio, and the Blackfyres are allies.  They tried to at least make use of Viserys; hence the princess-for-a-barbarian-horde scheme. 

As for Tyrosh, there are enough mentions that we can at least conclude that Doran tried to cultivate them as allies.

What grudges does Tyrosh have against the Iron Throne?

[Nevets]

Just because Viserys sells Dany for an army doesn't mean that was the original plan.  I've seen that assumption elsewhere (pink letter, for example), and it can lead you astray.  It appears Viserys got lucky, or unlucky, with Khal Drogo.

If there was a switch, it would have to be at more than 5 years old.  To use her as marriage bait, he's going to have to wait about TEN YEARS.   No way is he going to want to wait that long.  He certainly isn't going to intend on doing so, much less plan for it.

The fact is that he's got other things to offer, or should.  He's going to be king of Westeros.  He's getting rid of Robert, which should be the first offer.  And if he can't find some cushy jobs and nice castles for his supporters, what good is he?

[Gilbert Green]

14 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Can someone tell me if lemongate is true how does it affect the story besides Danys childhood home not being braavos ?

Depends on what "Lemongate is true" means.   Originally it just meant that the lemon tree discrepancy was a clue to something.

For years, the counterargument was that there was no discrepancy and/or it did not point to anything significant.  But GRRM seems to have shot that one down.

A fan's theory can be true even if a fan does not guess the point of a theory.  My own theory is that Dany is the daughter of Rhaegar and one the the Three Heads of the Dragon.  This might be true, even if I don't guess the "point".  But here's my guess.

This story is about the icy and fiery forces of death (others, ice wights, fire wights, dragons, red prophets) versus the icy and fiery humans (mainly Starks and Targaryens).    The forces of death seek to pit humans against each other, massacring each other in devastating wars, devastating crops on the verge of a long winter, and generally preparing the way for advancing zombie hordes.  This strategy includes pitting Starks against Targaryens.  Dany has been raised to believe the Starks are her enemies, and that it is her destiny to fight a war of conquest.

The twist will be that Dany originated with the union of Stark and Targaryen.  She must remember who she is.  She must join forces with her Targaryen siblings, and also with her Stark family.  She must refrain from devastating Westeros with dragon wars on the eve of winter.  Because the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.  If she gets caught up in the war hatred, the dragon within her will devour her, and she will be left howling forever alone in the darkness.

I worked a few quotes from the book into the  above paragraph.

Anyway, it is just a guess.

 

 

[Gilbert Green]

42 minutes ago, Nevets said:

If there was a switch, it would have to be at more than 5 years old.  To use her as marriage bait, he's going to have to wait about TEN YEARS.   

Your math seems off.  13 minus 5 equals 8 years.  Not 10 years.

Also, it is known that marriages are useful for forging political and military alliances.  You do not need to know exactly who she will marry. 

42 minutes ago, Nevets said:

No way is he going to want to wait that long. 

Illyrio is the patient one.  And it is he who complains that Viserys almost spoiled "years" of planning, by trying to deflower her before the wedding.

[Frey family reunion]

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

@Frey family reunion, You are theorizing that Oberyn brought a silver-harired, purple-eyed girl, with early childhood memories of lemons and Dorne, to Braavos to exchange for Daenerys Stormborn, correct? if Doran Martell already had Daenerys, why did he send Quentyn to wed the pretender? 

Yea, what @Mourning Star said, once Dany hatched the dragons everything changed.  Suddenly she became much more important than a mere Targaryen princess.  Of course there is a possibility that they are more interested in her dragons than they are in her.  After all, the son of the sun (Doran) is one of the persons that Quaithe warns Dany about.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

It still impacts the family honor.  Perhaps they regard Drogo and his hordes as expendable as well, if they intend use him only for a few years before he finds out he has been sold false goods.

I think it is almost a certainty that they considered Drogo expendable.  In fact that might have been the cherry on the sundae for them.  Drogo’s horde is used to distract and weaken the Iron Thron, they then swoop in take the city, and destroy the horde making themselves the saviors for the people of Westeros. And Pentos and the other cities in Essos have one less barbarian horde to worry about.

My only question is was Viserys ever truly in any of the coconspirator plans (other than Darry).  Or did they just want to use him to give legitimacy to Dany to enable them to get their army.

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Sure.  It's his family honor being squandered by these others, and he may be mad enough not to care; and they may not care either.

Yea, I think all Viserys can see is the Iron Throne.  

Edited April 14, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

It's an interesting point.  Worth putting on a list of arguable clues.  But it is not necessary for his real sister to be alive for this point to have weight.   It could work either way.  If he thought she was a real targ, he would have wanted to keep her blood pure.  But since she is not (as far as he knows) a real Targ, he is perfectly happy to sell her to a barbarian

I’m on the fence about Viserys’ sister being alive.  Something about the green haired daughter of the Archon stood out to me.  It was a strange bit of information for GRRM to bring up, seemingly superfluous but it might possibly have a minor plot point later.  

My first thought was that she had to be too old.  We’re told that she “rode” Nym in their battles in the pool of the Water Garden, and was Arianne and Garin’s main challenge.  My knee jerk assumption was that she must have been the same age as Arianne, but then a fairly funny thought occurred to me.  

Normally in the game that GRRM is describing, especially with girls, the older girls have the younger girls on their shoulders.  My best guess is that at the time Arianne is describing she and Nym are probably teenagers, so it makes sense that the green haired girl would be younger, possibly 8 or 9.

Arianne though, is described as fairly small and she’s on the shoulders of her milk brother.  So she may be battling younger girls as a teenager.  So it’s kind of amusing if that’s the case that she seems to take such pride in being the champion of the pool.

And the other thing that makes me think that the green haired girl is younger than Arianne, is that Arianne’s first assumption is that Quentyn was traveling to Tyrosh to marry the Archon’s daughter.  Now Arianne is an outlier.  She’s basically an old maid in Westeros much to her annoyance.  So if she thinks Quenty might be going to Tyrosh to marry the Archon’s daughter, it stands to reason that the Archon’s daughter was still of an age where one could assume she would be available.  And for Westeros that seems to be in the teens for girls.

ETA: one other thing that occurred to me, though was the fact that the Archon’s daughter travelled to Dorne at the same time that Viserys travelled to Tyrosh.  That raised an eyebrow for me.  Because at that time Viserys would have been coming to Tyrosh with Dany.  So I do wonder if that bit is an intentional clue, that they didn’t want the Archon’s daughter around Viserys and Dany.

My guess is though regardless if she’s alive or not, she’s only going to be a foot note in this story.  GRRM has centered his story around the changeling.

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[the trees have eyes]

On 4/12/2023 at 1:18 PM, Gilbert Green said:

The reason is because noble girls are routinely used as playing pieces for the forging of military and political alliances, and are well known to be useful for this purpose.

Which is how Dany (whether real or fake) was in fact used.  But it is not necessary to have a specific husband in mind when the scheme was first formulated.

See also the Fake Arya scheme for a similar logic in action.  But I forget.  Had a husband already been decided upon when Fake Arya first began her training?

You obtain a replacement child at the age of 3, 4, or 5.  After a suitable period of training, you reintroduce her to the world at 6, 7 or 8.  Not much chance of hair and eye color changing much after this point.  And if anyone wants to know where she's been, you say she's been in hiding to protect her from the hired knives of King Robert.

It's hugely more feasible than the Fake Arya scheme.  Not only do you work with a younger and more malleable child, but you may actually stand assured that the real child isn't going to suddenly show up, because you may have secret-but-sure knowledge that the real child is dead.  And far fewer people are going to be in the position to say "Wait, that's not her; that's actually so-and-so."  

About a thousand times less flimsy than the Fake Arya plot.  But I think this subplot, involving a minor character, is a clue and foreshadowing of something more major.

I don't think you get how this works.

Dynasties work by genetic inheritance.  The whole shebang about continuing the line relies on legitimate or legitimised offspring not on cuckoos in the nest - that's the whole point about how Cersei's betrayal of Robert is so scandalous to Westeros.  Barratheon loyalists like Ned won't tolerate it just to continue the dynasty because they are not in fact continuing the dynasty..... Targ loyalists, like those surrounding Viserys, or Viserys himself, won't tolerate an imposter because that imposter isn't of their line and can then supplant the real line.

OTOH, cynical opportunists like LF, Tywin and Bolton will attempt to use a fake for their own political advantage and to promote their own power (possibly Varys as well with Aegon who is possibly real but possibly a fake modelled on Perkin Warbeck / Lambert Simnel - GRRM being heavily influenced by the wars of The Roses) but they would never do that with their own family line.  "Blood" is everything in Westeros and the feudal system and if Dany is dead in childbirth there is no further interest from the Targ loyalists in her "substitute": instead it's all on Viserys who would really have been married at the first available opportunity to produce an heir / claimant.

You get that Roose and Tywin are not exploiting "Arya" to continue their own line but using Jeyne parasitically to control the North and supplant the Stark line with the Bolton line, I trust.  It's literally the opposite of what you are positing about efforts to "continue" the Targaryen line.

I also trust you realise that a lot of people are extremely doubtful about Arya's identity.  Roose is banking on getting established and brazening it out and Tywin doesn't give a damn, just as long as the North is not riding south to cause trouble for Joffrey.

[Khal Rhaego Targaryen]

Can anyone send me a link to the forum where i can read about lemongate and Dany?

[Gilbert Green]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

I don't think you get how this works.

Dynasties work by genetic inheritance. 

Right.  Fake Arya inherits Winterfell based on her supposed genetic inheritance.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

The whole shebang about continuing the line relies on legitimate or legitimised offspring not on cuckoos in the nest -

Does not mean that sneaky people cannot do sneaky things.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

that's the whole point about how Cersei's betrayal of Robert is so scandalous to Westeros. 

Sure, it's scandalous.  When people find out about it.   None who make such schemes plan to be found out.  Even so, some people figuring things out did not stop Joffrey from taking the crown, nor Tommen afterwards.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

Barratheon loyalists like Ned won't tolerate it just to continue the dynasty because they are not in fact continuing the dynasty..... Targ loyalists, like those surrounding Viserys, or Viserys himself, won't tolerate an imposter because that imposter isn't of their line and can then supplant the real line.

I don't think Viserys or his likely loyalists plan to marry a Dothraki barbarian descended from Dany, even if he or she does have a real Targ mother.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

OTOH, cynical opportunists like LF, Tywin and Bolton will attempt to use a fake for their own political advantage and to promote their own power (possibly Varys as well with Aegon who is possibly real but possibly a fake modelled on Perkin Warbeck / Lambert Simnel - GRRM being heavily influenced by the wars of The Roses) but they would never do that with their own family line. 

It's not like Viserys intends to marry Fake Dany himself.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

"Blood" is everything in Westeros and the feudal system and if Dany is dead in childbirth there is no further interest from the Targ loyalists in her "substitute": instead it's all on Viserys who would really have been married at the first available opportunity to produce an heir / claimant.

So you're saying that if Dany were real, Viserys would have married her himself rather than selling her to a barbarian for an army?  You may have a point.

On 4/15/2023 at 9:59 AM, the trees have eyes said:

You get that Roose and Tywin are not exploiting "Arya" to continue their own line but using Jeyne parasitically to control the North and supplant the Stark line with the Bolton line, I trust.  It's literally the opposite of what you are positing about efforts to "continue" the Targaryen line.

How is it "literally the opposite"?  Under the Fake Dany theory, Viserys is not planing to use Fake Dany to continue his own line.  If he were, he probably would have married her himself, being the blood purist that he is.  Dany even notices the apparent inconsistency.

And of course Illyrio doesn't plan to use Fake Dany to continue his own line either.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Gilbert Green