Ukraine: Breakthroughs… the vast majority of us hope…

[Derfel Cadarn]

No idea if true but interesting. Basically the remnant of Russia’s airborne troops no longer trusted, and to be fed into Bakhmut meat grinder

 

[Wilbur]

12 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

...Kuzkaya's version of events, when they found first hints of wrong doing at NL and asked to extend the probe, they instead chose shut down the investigation, and when he told his superiors at KPMG, he received no reaction whatsoever...

No one should be surprised at this.

The Big 8, no 6, no 4 model only works if all the partners on the engagement, including both the engagement partner and the concurring partner, are straight shooters who will report objectively on what the results of the audit mean.

But lots of partners are more interested in collecting the fee that being independent.  So rather than rock the boat, they use the handle to perform the minimum possible work within scope, make a fancy, low-calorie presentation, and ride off into the sunset looking for their next score.

[Werthead]

The VDV made a statement that any attempt to replace Teplinsky as their commander would be met with furious opposition, so this sounds about right. Basically different factions in the Russian government manipulating one another into losing face.

The VDV is a relatively well-trained force (compared to at least 90% of the Russian military), but hasn't been deployed well in the war and has taken a lot of losses (particularly at Hostomel) it could have avoided if the people running the war weren't idiots, especially at the start.

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Possible breakthrough?

Now geolocated to north of Tokmak. Interesting to see how successful the breach has been, or if this is reinforcements moving behind the front.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead

heard anything about this?  OSTintdefender tends toward pessimism… but they don’t appear to be Russian propaganda…

 

[Werthead]

The Russians have picked up the transfer of several Ukrainian heavy units to the western and central Zaporizhzhia regions, particularly the Orikhiv sector. The 10th Operational Corps is believed to have moved into the area, which is one of the main formations Ukraine possesses for heavy assault operations. It is a very large (20-30,000 troops at maximum strength), combined arms formation. The 148th Artillery Brigade has also been deployed to the same sector and Ukrainian artillery fire against the Russian line along the entire front is now very heavy and continuous. Ukraine has redirected several HIMARS units to this area and stepped up Storm Shadow and drone attacks on artillery pieces and ammunition stockpiles.

The Russians now seem to feel that a major assault on the lines in this sector is likely in the near to medium term.

20 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

heard anything about this?  OSTintdefender tends toward pessimism… but they don’t appear to be Russian propaganda…

Ukraine has acknowledged moderate Russian advances in this sector, although not to the degree being claimed. Some Russian milbloggers have in fact said the Russian attack in this area was only marginally successful and some have suggested it was unsuccessful, with Russian units falling back after a heavy engagement. Russian milbloggers and some Western sources (particularly ISW) have claimed that the Russian MoD is exaggerating successes in this area: it's worth noting that Russia started claiming major advances in this area around 10 July, again last week (when Derfel noted it) and again this week, but the areas being advanced on/through were the same in each case.

However, Russian milbloggers are generally sympathetic to the anti-MoD factions (there is more than one, with one group aligned with Prigozhin and another with Girkin, and those two factions also dislike one another). It may be Russia is achieving significant successes in this area and they are downplaying the success to try to discredit the MoD faction.

[Zorral]

Mali's army and suspected Russia-linked mercenaries committed 'new atrocities,' rights group says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mali-s-army-and-suspected-russia-linked-mercenaries-committed-new-atrocities-rights-group-says/ar-AA1eiFxW?

Quote

 

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Mali's army together with suspected mercenaries from the shadowy Russian group Wagner have committed summary executions, lootings, forced disappearances and other abuses, a leading human rights group reported Monday.

Human Rights Watch said the atrocities happened in Mali’s central region and that several dozen civilians were summarily executed or forcibly disappeared since December 2022. The human rights group interviewed 40 people by phone, including witnesses, and reviewed a video “showing evidence of abuses by Malian soldiers and associated foreign fighters.”

HRW said in its report that much of the abuse took place during military operations in response to the presence of extremist groups in the Mopti and Segou regions, and all except one involved foreign, non-French speaking armed men whom witnesses described as “white,” “Russians” or “Wagner.” ....

 

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Progres near Bakhmut

 

[Werthead]

Reports today that the Russian push on the Kupiansk front was halted by a Ukrainian counterattack which then regained several square kilometres of territory the Russians had captured in the preceding few days. Still waiting for more robust reporting on that.

The situation around Bakhmut seems quite fluid at the moment. Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian special forces raids on the town itself.

ETA: A Romanian cargo ship was apparently damaged during the Russian missile strike on the port of Reni. The ship only sustained light damage and no Romanian citizens were injured, so Romania is taking a relaxed attitude towards the incident.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Werthead

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Reports today that the Russian push on the Kupiansk front was halted by a Ukrainian counterattack which then regained several square kilometres of territory the Russians had captured in the preceding few days. Still waiting for more robust reporting on that.

The situation around Bakhmut seems quite fluid at the moment. Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian special forces raids on the town itself.

ETA: A Romanian cargo ship was apparently damaged during the Russian missile strike on the port of Reni. The ship only sustained light damage and no Romanian citizens were injured, so Romania is taking a relaxed attitude towards the incident.

I’m not really up on the “Law of War”.  Would escorting Ukrianian ships from port to the Bosphorus be an act of war by breaking the Russian blockade?

[Kalbear]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m not really up on the “Law of War”.  Would escorting Ukrianian ships from port to the Bosphorus be an act of war by breaking the Russian blockade?

Yes? If you're circumventing a blockade you're deliberately provoking that. Whether or not it's acted upon is another issue, but blockades usually aren't in a habit of saying 'stop, or I'll say stop again'

 

[Werthead]

Reni is right on the Danube, where it is less than 200m wide. The Romanian town of Grindu is about 2km away. This wasn't a blockade runner on the open sea, it was a Romanian ship either in or immediately adjacent to Romanian waters.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Not verified

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

More on Russian northern advances

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Progress in the south

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

More apparent progress to the south

 

[Werthead]

Ukraine is moving reinforcements into the Kreminna area. Interesting to see what unfolds there.

A lot of progress around Bakhmut and also the south-centre sector facing Tokmak. Some indications of possible progress on the Orikhiv front but unclear. Also some Ukrainian attacks on one of the Dnipro islands still held by Russian forces.

Very large cruise missile attacks involving at least 12 bombers. 36 missiles intercepted, unclear if that was all of them. Apparently the attacks were partially targeting Ukrainian airfields to try to knock out their Storm Shadow launch capability, but the airfields appear to have survived intact. Not much hard information there at the moment.

[Kalbear]

This author takes various threads in Russian Telegram traffic and translates and digests them. This one...is a doozy:

https://mastodon.sdf.org/@[email protected]/110782039943879889

Basically a tech hub that was originally hailed as a major Russian next-gen education academy has been basically converted to making Iranian Shahed drones by teenagers without pay, education, and under torturous conditions. 

Quote

Since Alabuga turned itself over to producing Shaheds, several hundred students aged 15 to 17 have been put to work assembling them. They are no longer studying, their normal projects have been cancelled and all funding has been redirected towards Shahed production.

Quote

Mulattoes" – students from Uganda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania and Pakistan – are used for the most basic work, "Tajiks" (apparently meaning central Asians in general, not just those from Tajikistan) are the next level up and "specialists" are the Russian students, evidently seen as the elite.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Looks like the counter-offensive is being stepped up, with a big push

 

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed reports placing Ukrainian units south-west of Robotyne and east and south-east, with fighting reported in Verbove. One of the heaviest Russian defensive lines runs through and just south of Verbove, reaching it will be a key moment in the offensive, especially seeing how heavily manned it is. Russia has expended a lot of lives in front of the fortifications instead of concentrating its defenders in them. It may have done that foolishly, or intelligently by delaying the Ukrainians long enough for the defences to be completed and manned competently.

ETA: Apparently Ukraine has already reached the antitank ditches near Verbove, driving a remote-controlled IMR engineering vehicle into it for some reason. Unclear if it was hit by fire, or if any fire took place.

If Robotyne has been enveloped, the Russians would do well to evacuate and fall back to Novoprokopivka to the south. There's group of several settlements in the area where the Russian lines pass through, which makes for a strong defensive position north of Tokmak. The Russians really have to hold the Ukrainians north of Tokmak. If the Ukrainians can break through to reach Tokmak, that allows them to start penetrating to the rear of the main defensive lines and the value of those millions of landmines and hundreds of miles of trenches goes out the window.