Ukraine: Breakthroughs… the vast majority of us hope…

[Werthead]

17 hours ago, Wilbur said:

The Drive has an article that provides sixteen points of interest as to the challenges facing Ukraine in their current offensive.

A Sobering Analysis Of Ukraine's Counteroffensive From The Front (thedrive.com)

In summary, the idea that the Ukrainians lack equipment is perhaps oversimplified.

This analysis seems reasonably cogent. Russia has been adapting to Ukrainian tactics and their new gear, if haphazardly, and they had immense amounts of time to build defences to hold back the Ukrainian advance (apart from around Bakhmut, which is a key reason that front is being focused on despite doubts over its tactical value by western advisors; the Bakhmut sector is probably the least-heavily-fortified on the entire front). In the absence of overwhelming air cover, Ukraine is unable to prosecute US-style combined arms attacks with close integration of artillery, air strikes and mechanised ground assaults, and the couple of times they've tried they've run into trouble and had significant losses.

However, the US itself has not had to fight a war involving assaulting heavily-fortified defensive lines without air superiority since at least WWII (and arguably not even then, since it enjoyed air superiority for almost the entire war, at least after Midway in the Pacific). There's no guarantee the US would be able either to break through the Russian lines quickly without that advantage.

Kofman noted that his analysis will take longer to come out. He has acknowledged recently that he has been continuously pessimistic throughout the conflict and been proven wrong almost every time, so he's trying to be less definitive on the chances of Ukrainian success or failure.

One thing I would note is that the analysis and a lot of commentary by both American and European commentators shows a startling lack of tactical awareness on the ground. Apparently NATO advisors have been telling Ukrainian troops to bypass or "go around" minefields along the front, and don't seem to understand that these minefields span thousands of square kilometres and it's simply impossible to go around them.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Werthead

[Ser Reptitious]

2 hours ago, karaddin said:

It feels like Ripp is identifying the bolded as part of "the West" in which case it's the first time I've half understood where some of his criticisms are coming from, even though I still disagree. I don't consider that idea to be part of the West but a broader principle that much of the world decided there was a need to not do things like that anymore.

He self-identifies as a pacifist, so I would assume that the notion of changing borders through military action is something that he is against in general, just like you and I are, regardless of where in the world we happen to live. 

 

Quote

If that's what we're talking about even while calling it different things, then yes I will admit I hoped for Ukraine to successfully defend itself and beat Russia as a repudiation of the idea of revisiting that and returning to the past way of war.

100% agreed.

 

Quote

Where I still say he's wrong (only speaking for myself, not anyone with power) however is that this is entirely contingent on Ukraine choosing to fight. The second Ukraine accepts the loss of the conquered territories and wants to negotiate peace then we should do everything we can to support that too. No one else should be bleeding just to send the message I want sent. But as long as Ukraine chooses to fight, then doing everything we can to help is morallyright because they're defending themselves from an aggressor, pragmatically right because it defends the world order I think has made the world a better place and at least to me that pragmatic outcome is also morally right.

Agreed. 

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What I do question is how we can do anything but support Ukraine, as the wronged nation, until Ukraine decides diplomacy and discussion are how… they… want to resolve this matter.  They are putting their lives at risk and attempting to use Western support for Ukraine’s efforts to liberate territory overrun by the Russians to pressure Ukrainians to the peace table seems paternalistic in the extreme.

And even beyond that, this is the third time that Russia's invaded another country: the Russo-Georgian War of 2008, the Crimea 2014 and now Ukraine.

Now he's threatening to invade Poland.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Zorral

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

One thing I would note is that the analysis and a lot of commentary by both American and European commentators shows a startling lack of tactical awareness on the ground. Apparently NATO advisors have been telling Ukrainian troops to bypass or "go around" minefields along the front, and don't seem to understand that these minefields span thousands of square kilometres and it's simply impossible to go around them

This is extremely alarming.  Even I knew/know this geography better than they do -- and I hardly know it at all, despite how assiduously I've been trying to teach myself these geographies for over 10 years -- and I haven't even been there, not even once!

[3CityApache]

1 hour ago, Lord of Oop North said:

The Soviet Union protected Poland?

Give me a fucking break.

There are 22,000, give or take, dead bodies in Katyn that would disagree with that bullshit.

Much more than that, actually. Plus mass deportations. And few decades of miserable vegetation.

As a matter of fact, I have enough of this. As a Pole - fuck you butterweedstrover. You have clearly no faintest idea what you are talking about. 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I take Putins threats to invade Poland the same way I take his threats to use Nukes.  Empty ones.

Russia invades a Nato country then we won't just be supplying Ukriane with arms, NATO will be activly enguaged.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

How about the revival of Serfdom in Belarus? That’s… interesting…

@butterweedstrover

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I take Putins threats to invade Poland the same way I take his threats to use Nukes.  Empty ones.

Russia invades a Nato country then we won't just be supplying Ukriane with arms, NATO will be activly enguaged.

Looking at the context better, Poland had transferred a small number of border guards to reinforce the border with Belarus and some plans to move larger numbers of Polish military forces from the west of the country to the east, but it's hardly a mass movement of tens of thousands of troops. Putin seemed to be lashing out in a kneejerk manner against that.

The various responses we've seen, like the fear that Wagner and Belarusian forces might try to seize the Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad, cutting Poland off from Lithuania, seem to be fairly overblown responses to that. NATO's reinforcing of its eastern border makes that an incredibly unviable plan unless Wagner and the Belarusians have masses more tanks, artillery and aircraft than Russia itself probably possesses (in a battle-ready state, anyway).

[Spockydog]

5 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How about the revival of Serfdom in Belarus?  Or is this just “Rus Culture” that we don’t really understand?

 

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, Ser Reptitious said:

He self-identifies as a pacifist, so I would assume that the notion of changing borders through military action is something that he is against in general, just like you and I are, regardless of where in the world we happen to live. 

One could possibly imagine a pacifist Ukrainian response to Russia's invasion, being not to oppose it militarily but to oppose it politically and non-cooperatively, taking a longer game view to regaining independence (a la India vs the British Raj). Such response is both rational and historically has been shown to be effective, with a broadly unified population behind it. However one could also possibly argue that a more pacifist Ukraine might not have been invaded by Russia at all since the pretext for invasion was the view (real or imagined) of Ukraine becoming more and more a military puppet of the West.

Problem is, at the point of the invasion in Feb '22 Ukraine was not of a pacifist mindset, and would have been unlikely to have been so even if it wasn't getting more cosy with the West. Ukraine also reasonably saw a better future by becoming more aligned with the West economically and in military alignment. So, Russia had its pretext for invasion and Ukraine subscribes to a rational doctrine of military self-defence against military invasion. The day Russia invaded being the same day Ukraine elected to resist by force was the same day that the west had no moral option other than to politically and financially ally with Ukraine and support it in it's decision on how to respond.

[SeanF]

14 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

I was going to vacate this thread for a little while to wait and see how things develop, as I find no point in arguing with people who are fighting straw men with blind patriotic vigor. 
 

But since you insist: 

Poland had a history of being under Russian patronage before the Soviet Union. And what happened? 

Polish culture (western Slav) was protected from being eaten up by the western empires. Germany, Austria, Britain, etc. would do nothing to safe guard Polish society as they share no commonality (Catholicism aside, Poland is a strictly Slavic country in every way that matters). 

Russia controlled this region for decades and more so ostensibly through the Warsaw pact. And what did they do? They expanded Polish territory (unlike the Ukrainian nationalists who wanted them extinguished). 

If as you assume Russia sought to destroy Polish statehood, they had ample opportunity. Instead they supported Polish identity, subsidized their economy, and grew their population. 

Compare that to Hitler who wanted to replace Poles with Germans, there is no comparison. Russia did not try to alter the demographics so that eastern Slavs would outnumber western Slavs. 

They grew the land and population. It was only when Poland ‘voluntarily’ integrated with the west that it started losing people. Why? Because western countries had no interest in fostering a Polish society, but sought to attract migrants for their own economies and then ‘assimilate’ the immigrants to their language, culture, and values.  
 

Now THAT is colonialism.

But again, to make it seem the Soviet aim in Poland had anything to do with the German aim is historical revisionism to both sides the situation. 

And where does this radically insane rhetoric comes from? Fascist organizations in Eastern Europe. I mean openly fascist, just like the right sector in Ukraine. 

Yet mysteriously, when it fits their geopolitical ambitions, western liberals drop all their principles and values and differ to fascist rhetoric. Just like with the Banderites in Ukraine who want to make this a war against all Russian people. 

You’ve got some nerve, claiming that Imperial Russia and the Soviets “protected” Poland.

[Ser Reptitious]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

*snip

I'm not interested in going down the rabbit hole of what Ukraine could have done differently to avoid Russian aggression. 

And if @Rippounet was a Ukrainian living in Ukraine, then that would be a different story. It's one thing to turn the other cheek when being slapped, it's something else entirely to suggest to someone else that they ought to do so when they are being slapped. 

My point is quite simple: Any true pacifist anywhere should be fully supportive of the general post-WW2 consensus that borders should not be changed through military force. If Russia succeeds in doing so, then we might be drifting back towards the Bismarkian idea that war is a legitimate tool to be used for achieving foreign policy objectives. Any pacifist should shudder at that very notion and therefore hope that Russia's invasion of Ukraine falls flat on its face (as it thankfully appears to be doing). 

I can already hear Ripp sighing and saying that he is not pro-Russia but simply trying to bring some nuance to the debate. But there is no nuance to the fact that Russia invaded a sovereign nation and proceeded to formally annex several chunks of it. That action needs to be condemned loud and clear, without any ands, ifs, or buts. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Ser Reptitious

[Varysblackfyre321]

15 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How about the revival of Serfdom in Belarus?  Or is this just “Rus Culture” that we don’t really understand?

@butterweedstrover

 

Scott you must understand some people fetishize mass suffering and dreariness because they think it allows them an avenue to commit great acts of violence against people because of their ethnicity, race, sexuality, gender etc.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Varysblackfyre321

[Werthead]

16 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How about the revival of Serfdom in Belarus?  Or is this just “Rus Culture” that we don’t really understand?

These are viable subjects to discuss in the context of the thread and it is valid to respond to another poster's response when they join in the discussion.

However, deliberately trying to bait other posters into some sort of discussion so you can score points off them personally isn't really a good use of the board or of anyone's time. It's less engaging in discussion and more grabbing a red flag off the shelf and going looking for a bull. It's not really necessary.

If somebody joins in the discussion, talk to them, if they don't, do go trying to bait them.

Of course that goes for all sides.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Werthead

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

54 minutes ago, Werthead said:

These are viable subjects to discuss in the context of the thread and it is valid to respond to another poster's response when they join in the discussion.

However, deliberately trying to bait other posters into some sort of discussion so you can score points off them personally isn't really a good use of the board or of anyone's time. It's less engaging in discussion and more grabbing a red flag off the shelf and going looking for a bull. It's not really necessary.

If somebody joins in the discussion, talk to them, if they don't, do go trying to bait them.

Of course that goes for all sides.

You are right.  You are absolutely correct.  I will refrain from baiting.  My apologies to the board and to @butterweedstrover

[Relic]

23 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

I was going to vacate this thread for a little while to wait and see how things develop, as I find no point in arguing with people who are fighting straw men with blind patriotic vigor. 
 

But since you insist: 

Poland had a history of being under Russian patronage before the Soviet Union. And what happened? 

Polish culture (western Slav) was protected from being eaten up by the western empires. Germany, Austria, Britain, etc. would do nothing to safe guard Polish society as they share no commonality (Catholicism aside, Poland is a strictly Slavic country in every way that matters). 

Russia controlled this region for decades and more so ostensibly through the Warsaw pact. And what did they do? They expanded Polish territory (unlike the Ukrainian nationalists who wanted them extinguished). 

If as you assume Russia sought to destroy Polish statehood, they had ample opportunity. Instead they supported Polish identity, subsidized their economy, and grew their population. 

Compare that to Hitler who wanted to replace Poles with Germans, there is no comparison. Russia did not try to alter the demographics so that eastern Slavs would outnumber western Slavs. 

They grew the land and population. It was only when Poland ‘voluntarily’ integrated with the west that it started losing people. Why? Because western countries had no interest in fostering a Polish society, but sought to attract migrants for their own economies and then ‘assimilate’ the immigrants to their language, culture, and values.  
 

Now THAT is colonialism.

But again, to make it seem the Soviet aim in Poland had anything to do with the German aim is historical revisionism to both sides the situation. 

And where does this radically insane rhetoric comes from? Fascist organizations in Eastern Europe. I mean openly fascist, just like the right sector in Ukraine. 

Yet mysteriously, when it fits their geopolitical ambitions, western liberals drop all their principles and values and differ to fascist rhetoric. Just like with the Banderites in Ukraine who want to make this a war against all Russian people. 

What a load of horseshit. As a Pole all I want to say is - Please, do not return. 

[Zorral]

35 minutes ago, Relic said:

As a Pole all I want to say

I don't claim to be Polish since my own heritage is equally divided among Swedish, Prussian and Polish, but still, I will go there due to things my Polish grand, great and great great grandmothers had to say over the generations.

Additionally, where I grew up, has many people whose grand, great and great great parents came, not from Russia, but Ukraine, as they always made very clear.  As much of a red hell hole that place has now become, they do 100% support Ukraine in this war against the Russian invader.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Zorral

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Since I can't find this story anywhere in the English language sphere, guess I'll have to break it.

 

The Kalashnikov Papers/Leaks are quite something.

The story starts with Anonymous (remember how people laughed, when they declared they'd join and actively support Ukraine's fight). Last year they hacked one of the Kalashnikov company's subsidiaries (Lipstek, or LMZ) and got their hands on a bunch of interesting documents (March). They published those papers in April '22 and that raised the interest of Frontal 21 (formerly known as Frontal) a German investigative/politics TV show over at the German public broadcast (they are quite good, and they usually don't let go, when they have story). They made segment (after verifying the contents and doing some digging of their own) towards the end of June '22.

The papers contents in a nutshell.

LMZ is not explicitly named on the EU sanction lists for reasons apparently. A secretary at Kalashnikov wrote an e-mail to LMZ boss Vladimir Lepin he should send a mail to western suppliers, that LMZ is interested in building a factory extending their ammonition production to 30m units per year. And they are requesting offers for building a factory for that purpose.

One of the recipients was New Lachaussee s.a. a Belgian company.

They apaprently made an offer to build the factory. That offer was apaprently made in December 2021 about building/sending the parts for an automated assembly line to the Tula ammonition factory (which is on the sanctions list btw).

So New Lachaussee (NL henceforth) confirmed that they were in talks back in October of '21, but ultimately that didn't lead to anything due to sanctions. The channel received a letter from NL's lawyers demanding not to be named in relations to the Ukraine war. In how far already providing an offer to provide an offer to violate sanctions is legally rlevant is a good questions, if investigators want to open a case, that'd be well within their discretion.

Further down Kalashnikov's shopping list special tools from German company Gühring. Those are sorta tricky legally. As those are dual purpose tools, which do have civillian and military use. We are talking about stuff like special drills. Gühring responded to questions by Frontal, that they are adhering to sactions and are not doing business with any company on the sanctions list. Their tools are not listed as forbidden to export per se (dual purpose goods), so they were still legally selling their products to a Russian distributing company called PKF-Technologies. And they then sold on the tools to Kalashnikov. When asked about PKF-Technologies the response was a bit more tight lipped someting along the lines (Our distribution partners know that the sanction regiment is the basis for doing business with us, we are doing our due diligence wrt checking where our products are going). The Russian companies refused to comment on the matter.

When the German authorities were asked to comment, they mentioned catch-all-clauses, that could very well cover Grüning's tools. At the end of May 2022 Grüning announced, that they'd put an end to their Russia business altogether.

 

They now brought an update on their original story. This time the main actor Auditing company KPMG - Chats new employer (j/k, just wanted to drag chats in this thread).

Anyway, they sent a team of their forensic investigators to check whether NL violated sanctions. Among them a man named Cihan Kuzkaya. What he found apparently raised quite a few red flags, and he was told to stop digging and his findings were basically ignored. He decided that was unacceptable, quit his job and turned whistleblower with the SEC in October 2022. Backstory was the reporting from Frontal 21 putting pressure on NL's owners Magtech Europe. So they hired KPMG to look into it (and apparently to whitewash NL).

Anyway, what raised the red flags for Kuzkaya was that he found four (!) additional offers to the one that started the story a year ago.When Frontal appraoched NL, they responded by saying that the KPMG report showed there was no business between itself and Russian arms manufacturer since 2014.

MagTech also responded similarly pointing out, that KPMG found no proof of any law violation by NL.

Kuzkaya's version of events, when they found first hints of wrong doing at NL and asked to extend the probe, they instead chose shut down the investigation, and when he told his superiors at KPMG, he received no reaction whatsoever.

The non-action was not that surprising to him, as he's seen that reaction with his former employer before. Since this was not about some people getting a bit butthurt and a company making losses, but rather a thing, where he'd feel he'd have blood on his hands this was the red line for him.

What NL apparently tried to do (or did?) was export that stuff to Serbia with the national arms manufacturer as (YugoImport) functioning as the middle man. Serbia is the sole country in the region, that has not placed sanctions on Russia.

The regional goverment of Wallonia, which holds a 20% share at NL only learnt about the KPMG's findings after they were approached by Frontal and Belgian Broadcaster RTBF. The governor, Elio di Rupo, was apparently shocked and they revoked all export permisions to Serbia for NL and demanded a full investigation of the matter.

Edited July 23, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Derfel Cadarn]

Possible breakthrough?

 

[Werthead]

Russia has made incremental gains along the Lyman front. Fairly minor at the moment, but they have advanced close to a major highway, which the Ukrainians would want to deny them.

Ukraine is starting to make more significant progress around Bakhmut, enveloping the city from the NW and SW. Ukraine's targets in this sector have to be Berkhivka to the north and Opytne in the south, to fully envelop the city suburbs. It also needs to shield its flanks, which it's doing well in the south (with heavy fighting in Klischiivka) but is finding harder in the north due to heavy defending forces. Still, some progress up there (helped by drone swams targeting logistics and resupply) and intriguingly, some signs of a tertiary effort (small in scale at the moment) taking shape up around Rozdolivka. If that becomes a bigger deal it could threaten not just Bakhmut but also Soledar. Might be another feint, though.

The main assault axis in the south-central region is achieving a degree of success on a very broad front, but the result of having to advance on a broad front means the depth of the advance is still relatively modest. But the front now runs from around Stepove almost to Novomaiorske. Russian units along the front are complaining a lot of being undermanned and not having enough heavy artillery support. The main problem here is the Russians keeping troops in advanced positions some kilometres in front of the main defensive line rather than letting them retreat to the heavy defences. This might be a good idea - bleed the Ukrainians before they even get to the main contact line - or it might be moronically stupid, by getting your defending troops killed in light cover and on open ground rather than in the main lines where might be more defensible.

The SW end of the front appears to be developing intriguingly. The Ukrainians have reached the main contact line across the entire front and have found breaking it to be tricky, but have succeeded in capturing multiple heavy defence positions, pushing the lines back to Robotyne, with reports of fighting in the town outskirts. The Russians have faced heavy losses here, and it looks like this sector has been denuded of strength to reinforce other areas. But it's still tough going down in this area.

At some point last week Ukraine exceeded 230 square kilometres regained, exceeding the territorial gains by Russia for all of 2023 up to this point.