US Politics: Happy Anniversary.

[maarsen]

17 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I'm not sure if this belongs in a politics thread, but can someone please tell me what the hell is going on with Taylor Swift? She seems to be getting an awful lot of MAGA wonks really excited for some reason. 

She is drawing bigger crowds than Trump, making more money than Trump and doesn't hesitate to show dislike of Trump. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

26 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I'm not so sure. I mean, if the Republican brand wasn't killed by Iraq and Katrina and the recession, I begin to doubt if it can be killed at all. Maybe if the GOP were to lose ten consecutive elections, but...

I was not a fan of Dubya's policies, and Cheney's authoritarian qualities set the stage for Trump's even worse style of governance. Regardless, even Dick Cheney is horrified by Donald Trump. The GOP of 2012 was a lot worse than that of 2004, but even that GOP gave us Mitt Romney rather than Rick Santorum.

There has been a long downward trend among expectations for GOP politicians, but with Trump, basically all pretense to moderation and shame went out the window.

I agree that Haley is trying to bring that person back, but when you're promising to pardon a convicted felon and insurrectionist, and can't even chastise the very guy you're running against for fear of his base, then that path is not a viable one.

I say deny the GOP all oxygen until they change tactics. Nothing's guaranteed, but they need the clearest message possible for any hope that they might learn any lesson.

[LongRider]

7 minutes ago, maarsen said:

She is drawing bigger crowds than Trump, making more money than Trump and doesn't hesitate to show dislike of Trump. 

And unlike Trump, she is not due in court anytime soon.  

[Phylum of Alexandria]

8 minutes ago, maarsen said:

She is drawing bigger crowds than Trump, making more money than Trump and doesn't hesitate to show dislike of Trump. 

There was some small moment when alt-right types were praising Taylor as some sort of Aryan queen. I guess their sexism eventually trumped their racism in this case.

[Rippounet]

15 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

[...] even Dick Cheney is horrified by Donald Trump.

This is a truly terrible timeline.

[TrackerNeil]

34 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

That's probably true, but Trump would still be around, making it known that he's the alpha.

He still has his Project 2025 agenda, and I imagine she would be pressured to adopt them for her own administration, and also take on MAGA-faithful in her cabinet. Sure, she might do it reluctantly, and might stymie an effort or two, but the MAGA machine beyond Trump has been energized and organized, and they're not going to let a squish like Haley get in the way of their vision.

That's true enough. I sometimes wonder if this will die down when Trump dies; I'm not at all certain that MAGA is viable without Cheeto Benito to focus it.

[Maithanet]

In the unlikely event that Trump does lose the primary to Haley, I think that his influence on the party would be greatly reduced.  He'd still have some die hards, but at that point it is clear the party has moved on (or else he wouldn't have lost).  If Trump only commands a secondary portion of the Republican Party then he is reduced to a mere nuisance.

However, that is not the timeline we're living in - Trump will defeat Haley fairly easily when the votes get counted. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's true enough. I sometimes wonder if this will die down when Trump dies; I'm not at all certain that MAGA is viable without Cheeto Benito to focus it.

His charisma and his maniacal tenacity are two things that supercharge the movement. They will certainly try. I guess whether they succeed or not will depend on whether they can find someone as compelling and driven.

Alex Jones?

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

In the unlikely event that Trump does lose the primary to Haley, I think that his influence on the party would be greatly reduced.  He'd still have some die hards, but at that point it is clear the party has moved on (or else he wouldn't have lost).  If Trump only commands a secondary portion of the Republican Party then he is reduced to a mere nuisance.

However, that is not the timeline we're living in - Trump will defeat Haley fairly easily when the votes get counted. 

I can agree with that. If the voters go against Trump for someone like Haley, then that would be evidence of his waning power. But it ain't gonna happen.

I think Haley could have tried (and still could try) to push harder against Trump and make the case that he's a loser who only cares about himself. I don't think that would go over well with GOP voters, but what she's doing now is not a case at all!

Tim Miller recently made the observation that Haley's reward for not attacking Trump like Christie does is that the voters don't hate her like they do Christie. They don't like her, of course. Her reward for selling her soul is being regarded as a lukewarm "okay."

[Rippounet]

10 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's true enough. I sometimes wonder if this will die down when Trump dies; I'm not at all certain that MAGA is viable without Cheeto Benito to focus it.

The MAGA agenda has been developed over the last 40 years (Heritage's original Mandate for Leadership was published in 1981). Trump is just particularly good at mobilizing his electoral base.

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

The MAGA agenda has been developed over the last 40 years (Heritage's original Mandate for Leadership was published in 1981). Trump is just particularly good at mobilizing his electoral base.

Yeah, I think Trump is more the symptom rather than the disease.  He just showed you can be more overt in appeals bigotry and ignoring norms and rules.  

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

highlight that there was a credible alternative to Trump.

There is no credible alternative out of any of them.  They are all deranged racist fascists and dominionists who are determined to imprison women within their reproductive organs, to live or die at their whim.  Just for starters.  

Not a single one of them will object to McCarthy like investigations and show trials, imprisonment and execution of the enemies of God and rump or any of the fascists, including imprisoning women who have miscarriages -- or maybe, even, object to forced marriage while prohibiting contraception.  Much less DO anything to stop it.

Edited January 11 by Zorral

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I say deny the GOP all oxygen until they change tactics. Nothing's guaranteed, but they need the clearest message possible for any hope that they might learn any lesson.

Nope. I'm fine with their tactics. "Crazy stupid and proud of it" is just right I think. I've always said these guys would be terrifying if they were subtle (or smart).

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

And unlike Trump, she is not due in court anytime soon.  

I would have said "never ordered a missile attack on someone". But then I remembered there was that one time...

1 hour ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's true enough. I sometimes wonder if this will die down when Trump dies; I'm not at all certain that MAGA is viable without Cheeto Benito to focus it.

Never. The american right has always had its lunatic fringe.

In the 1950's it was Birchers calling Eisenhower a communist. In the 80's it was neocons saying, "Fuck this glasnost shit. Russia's on its knees! Kill them now!!!" In the '90's it was those super-capslock emails your uncle used to send you and Rush Limbaugh accusing Hillary Clinton of ordering assassinations. You get the idea.

You had a generation of unscrupulous politicos who cynically used this noise to their advantage. You now have a new generation that actually believes this shit. 

The fringe has come to dominate the center. Certain media companies have cynically fed into this for advertising dollars. This is how it is from now on. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

4 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Nope. I'm fine with their tactics. "Crazy stupid and proud of it" is just right I think. I've always said these guys would be terrifying if they were subtle (or smart).

Fair enough. I said earlier that I think Haley could handily beat Biden, and that supports the general notion that bad faith pseudo-moderate branding is its own problem. In a way we've been lucky that the GOP has grown so absolutely batshit crazy, since it provides very little room for plausible deniability. 

If Haley were to win now, I fear that we would speedily move back to that very superficial bad faith squish posturing: ie., more Mike Pence and Kevin McCarthy. And what's scary is that the larger voting public would probably buy it.

So, my "hope" (if you want to call it that) is that they continue to be obviously crazy and anti-democratic, and the nation keeps rejecting them, to the point where the GOP is completely tarred and feathered, both as political losers and as corrupt traitors. Unfortunately, this "best case" scenario likely includes more violence and insurrection-like acts to get the people truly repulsed.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

12 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

The fringe has come to dominate the center. Certain media companies have cynically fed into this for advertising dollars. This is how it is from now on. 

The Birchers were eventually put in check by the establishment. There has been one opportunity after another for the GOP establishment to do that, but they've dodged every possible off ramp they've been given. Yet it can happen.

And if it were to happen, I don't think the results would be nearly as catastrophic as these cowards fear it would be. The extremists threaten and bully because they want to avoid consequences.  Yet we've seen that once real consequences are observed, the radical behavior starts to wane. The only thing that stops the GOP establishment is their own weakness.

Maybe the Never Trump types can eventually pull together a vision that can bring together a conservative coalition that can keep the crazy base in check. Emphasis on maybe and eventually, of course..

[Maithanet]

I was looking at the calendar and whether or not the "Haley wins the primary" is at all realistic.  Here's what I see as the necessary steps for Haley to upset Trump:

1.  Haley finishes second in Iowa ahead of Desantis.  She's currently ~ tied for second in polls, so this isn't unrealistic, but by no means a given.    

2. Haley wins New Hampshire.  She is narrowly behind Trump in the polls, and Christie dropping out will help her since she is preferred candidate of Christie voters (who were ~12% in polls).  This is possible.

3.  Desantis drops out after two 3rd place finishes.  He probably won't, although he has no path whatsoever with Haley surging and Trump still kicking his ass. 

4.  Anti-Trump vote coalesces around Haley, causing her to improve significantly nationwide.

It's important to note that even if all 4 of these things happen, Trump is still ahead and likely to win.  Because the anti-Trump vote is not enough to win.  She needs to:

5.  Start peeling away some Trump supporters.

Step 5 is probably the hardest step here.  Trump's appeal is more cultural than political at this point.  Plenty of Republican voters admit that his scandals and criminal cases make him a weaker candidate vs Biden, but they love him anyway.  Haley can lean into an "electability" argument, but I don't think it will work, because logic has left this place.  I don't know what her argument will be other than that, although perhaps she can come up with something. 

Basically Haley needs several possible, but by no means certain things to happen in the next couple weeks in order to emerge as a viable threat.  And THEN she'll still be behind and needs to continue improving.  Which is possible I guess? 

It doesn't feel very possible. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

Yesterday, I was behind a car with "Biden owes me gas money" bumper sticker.

Not too long ago, a seemingly-intelligent person at a party was explaining to me how the real estate market will improve under Trump presidency because "mortgage rates go down under Republicans, and up under Democrats".

Another seemingly-intelligent person was telling me how they expect their trucking business to become more profitable after Trump's victory since that will cause the gas prices to drop.

GOP isn't going anywhere.

You could've just said going to a party in Florida sucks.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Here we go.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111721484609384209

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Here we go.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111721484609384209

I'm not going to click on that, what does it say?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Thought been linked before some gateway pundit birther stuff about Haley.