Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[CamiloRP]

27 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Did you miss that in your quote, George literally says " I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something".

This already negates Tyrion as the target, so what's the point of arguing about any discrepancies in the Tyrell/LF plan? Which there may have been, of course, and I think that's a more worthwhile discussion to have. I don't think LF saw himself as an equal partner in that conspiracy, and his use of the jousting dwarves shows that he went further than providing the hairnet. He may have gambled on Tyrion being fingered somehow, even if the Tyrells were hoping it was seen as accidental. Like people have said, this alliance was not based on trust and it would be just like LF to squeeze a little more out of the affair to give him extra profit.

Like I say, I'm happy to argue the wrinkles in the LF/Tyrell alliance, but I'm really not in any doubt as to the primary target being Joffrey any more.

I did miss it, genuinely.

Tho I still don't see it as a confirmation.

[Sandy Clegg]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I would note that the passage is that the bells were fading away, not that they had faded away.

This is a partial reading at best. In the full passage it's hard to mistake the wording for anything other than the bells were gone:

The shore fell away, the fog grew thicker, the sound of the bells began to fade. Finally even the lights were gone, lost somewhere behind them. They were out in Blackwater Bay, and the world shrank to dark water, blowing mist, and their silent companion stooped over the oars.

1. So first the shore is 'gone' ...
2. Then the the bells 'start to go (fade)
3. Then finally even the lights were gone.

That 'even'  signifies the last thing to go. Implying that everything has now faded. Gone. This is further supported by : "the world shrank to dark water, blowing mist, and their silent companion stooped over the oars." That's what remains of her world. It does not include shores, lights  ... or bells. Yes, George is being clever and poetic here. He doesn't beat us over the head with the fact that the bells are gone. But how anyone can read that passage and come to the conclusion that she can still hear any bells is a mystery to me. 

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

And we also know that he wasn’t traveling from the East, where the sun was rising, because his ship came out of the darknes

The only salient point is that Sansa was coming from KL. And Peter's ships meets her head on. The direction they come from is immaterial, except for the fact that it couldn't also have been coming 'from King's Landing'. 

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

So George also goes out of his way to show that Petyr wasn’t coming from further out in the Bay

He hasn't shown this. Sansa is closer to KL than Petyr. Therefore he's further from the city, therefore further into the bay. Just not further east, which is immaterial anyway.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

 After all an attempted poisoning could have been a sufficient distraction to allow Sansa to escape unnoticed.

Not a bad point, but I think we can assume that he knows something of the poison he chose to do the job.  We don't have any stats on the strangle's survival rate, but it has been shown to be pretty damn effective. I think he would have been fairly safe in this assumption, though, and been pretty surprised if Sansa had then told him Joff was still alive. But she didn't, so his assumption was a safe one. 

 

[Sandy Clegg]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Quote

The current season of Game of Thrones is roughly based on the second half of the third A Song of Ice and Fire book, A Storm of Swords. Series author George R.R. Martin says that Joffrey appears to have been killed by Queen of Thorns Olenna Tyrell in the books, but adds that he makes no promises.

"I make no promises... and I may have more surprises to reveal," Martin says. "The conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa's hair net."

So if George has gone out of his way for the reader to accept this as the only version of events that is possible, then what are the additional surprises that he may reveal?

I think George himself is telling us that the mystery of Joffrey’s death may have been revealed, or may not have been revealed, depending on what George decides to do in future books.

So I think George has left enough wiggle room to throw us a curveball.

I've always said that I'm happy to look at wrinkles in the plan. So of course we may get more reveals. But he very, very rarely even says this much in the way of confirmation, so I think that is very telling. Of course he's within his rights to keep us off-guard and say 'no promises'. I'll look forward to the surprises - but he also has to pay off observant readers, so I will counter with this quote:

The truth is when you're when you're when you're writing a book that has any kind of surprises or mysteries … you lay in certain clues that, let’s say, “the butler did it”. And it's a long series, you lay in the clues and the first one and you have more clues, and maybe a few red herrings, and subsequent ones and  - most readers will not miss that. They will not figure out who did it. They will not even be cognisant there's a mystery, or they will put together the clues wrong. But there will always be some  - and this has always been true   …. who put the clues together and figure out that the butler did it.

What's changed in the eyes of the internet is - now that smartass feels that they can go on the internet and say ‘oh here are the seven clues that I found and … see? The butler did it!’

So, if you’re a writer and you're aware of that then … what do you do? Now, your surprise is ruined. Because suddenly this person has put it out  - and now thousands of people have read it and they’ll say ‘you're right I didn't see that but yeah the butler did do it’.

So … you can change the subsequent books and the butler didn't do it  - now  the chambermaid did it. But but then all your clues that you put in so carefully in the first and second book lead to nowhere in. They’re contradictions. So I don't do that. I, you know I'm sorry but the butler is still going to do it at the end and some people will have figured that out I think.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtX5kBKaqn0

No changes to whodunnit, but the promise of surprises to come? I feel like the latter is more vague than the former, but people's mileage will vary when it comes to interpreting these things. 

[Frey family reunion]

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The only salient point is that Sansa was coming from KL. And Peter's ships meets her head on. The direction they come from is immaterial, except for the fact that it couldn't also have been coming 'from King's Landing'. 

No, not really.  King’s Landing is a pretty big place.  Sansa is coming from the the channel which is south of King’s Landing and heads in a northerly direction.  So presumably she may be heading in a northerly direction gradually away from the city.

Petyr’s ship probably doesn’t come from the East because it’s not shown by the rising sun.  Instead it probably comes from somewhere North of Sansa.  And perhaps too, like Sansa they are heading in a direction south gradually sailing away from King’s Landing.  And they meet up further out in the bay.  I think based on the available evidence it’s most likely that Sansa’s rowboat is heading Northeast, while Petyr is traveling Southeast.  They meet up in the bay, and Petyr’s ship turns East when they meet up with the rowboat.

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

But how anyone can read that passage and come to the conclusion that she can still hear any bells is a mystery to me. 

The issue is that the bells were one of the last things she heard.  So presumably Petyr’s ship, which is also on the move would have also been in a position to hear the sound of the bells carrying over the water, even if it was before they finally came in contact with Sansa’s boat.

13 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Not a bad point, but I think we can assume that he knows something of the poison he chose to do the job.  We don't have any stats on the strangle's survival rate, but it has been shown to be pretty damn effective. I think he would have been fairly safe in this assumption, though, and been pretty surprised if Sansa had then told him Joff was still alive. But she didn't, so his assumption was a safe one. 

I’m not talking about Joff surviving the consumption of the poison, I’m talking about the poisoners being caught in the act.  So let’s assume that Olenna was caught with the poison or caught trying to poison Joffrey’s cup, that still would have created a commotion which could have allowed Sansa to escape.

Thus even if Joffrey was the intended target it was the bells that confirmed to Petyr that the poisoning was successful.

Edited April 9 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

2 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

So … you can change the subsequent books and the butler didn't do it  - now  the chambermaid did it. But but then all your clues that you put in so carefully in the first and second book lead to nowhere in. They’re contradictions. So I don't do that. I, you know I'm sorry but the butler is still going to do it at the end and some people will have figured that out I think.

What George is saying is that he’s not going to change what he intended because some people may have figured out the mystery.  That’s not what I’m suggesting.

I’m suggesting that George is allowing for the possibility of a surprise twist in what he wrote.  And at the very least giving him multiple options of how he wants the story to go.

When I put together my theory that Sansa may in fact actually be the poisoner, I very painstakingly quoted all of the portions of the text that might allow George to take this route.  

That doesn’t mean I necessarily think he’s going to go with this.  I’m just highlighting portions of the text that would allow him to adjust the story to that outcome if he decides to go that route.

It’s why George describes himself as a gardener (I think).  He gives himself several different options to branch his story out in various directions.  

So when he says there may be a surprise I think he’s being very literal as opposed to being coy.  There may be a surprise and Olenna might not have poisoned Joffrey, or it may be just as it appears to the careful reader.  George has two books to decide what direction he wants to go in.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Let’s assume that Littlefinger was in on the plot to kill Tyrion

 Shouldn't we be able to get a little deeper before we have to start making assumptions?  I don't see a motive for Littlefinger to kill Tyrion and if he does have one, or he's just open to doing t because chaos, I don't see why he would want to get half the court involved in the deed. He could have had a Kettleblack do it in the dark. 

If it had anything to do with Sansa, wouldn't LF have felt enormous pressure to do it before she wed Tyrion and got bedded?  I don't think that he could have assumed that Tyrion wouldn't go through with it and I don't think his plans for Sansa include a little Lannister bastard.

[Sandy Clegg]

28 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

And they meet up further out in the bay.  I think based on the available evidence it’s most likely that Sansa’s rowboat is heading Northeast, while Petyr is traveling Southeast.  They meet up in the bay, and Petyr’s ship turns East when they meet up with the rowboat.

At a point which is out of range of the sights and sounds of King's Landing. The textual evidence is pretty clear that wherever Sansa is, Peter is and was further out than that. The directional speculation doesn't confirm where he was. Our last known information is that he was not in KL. Now, if George wanted to plant some clues that LF had been closer and heard the bells, or was in KL, don't you think you would fairly have left some in the text which might show this? Instead we have nothing but what ifs and maybes. So that's weight of evidence, which I can't really ignore.

31 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The issue is that the bells were one of the last things she heard.  So presumably Petyr’s ship, which is also on the move would have also been in a position to hear the sound of the bells carrying over the water, even if it was before they finally came in contact with Sansa’s boat.

Except it was not shown to be sailing away from KL, but rather patently the opposite. Making the bells even further away. I'm afraid I have to point to the above. If it wasn't in the text that Petyr was coming from KL, then there's no strong basis to prove otherwise that supports Tyrion over Joff. It's possibilities vs. textual evidence. 

 

34 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So let’s assume that Olenna was caught with the poison or caught trying to poison Joffrey’s cup, that still would have created a commotion which could have allowed Sansa to escape.

Again, it's a pretty big leap. A commotion like that would've brought kingsguard circling round the guests nearby pretty sharpish. Accidental death/accusation of Tyrion meant that eyes were not on Sansa - enough to get away. Littlefinger is simply assuming that his plan succeeded. He is within his right to do so, as it's in character for him to be so cocky. And again - if he had been proved wrong and Joff wasn't dead, that doesn't retroactively alter any plan. It just makes him an arrogant assassin on top of everything else. As it turns out, he was right to assume his plan had worked. 

[Sevalemer]

On 4/8/2024 at 5:53 PM, CamiloRP said:

 Yeah but, that obviously helps LF (he gets rewarded Harrenhall) and obviously helps the Tyrells (they get a queen), while it having no possibility of being a set-up. It doesn't require trust at all, it's not the same thing as regicide, something either side has no reason to assume the other would be okay with and something for which no side need the other, and that has no serious repercusions if it doesn't work (as regicide would).

 

It just takes LF to tell Cersei "have someone covertly spy on Sansa, Olenna will steal poison from a hairnet on her head. Then have someone spy on her, hse will drop it on Joff's wine". or "the moment Sansa's harinet is missing a stone have lady Olenna searched, you will find poison in her."

On the other hand, they Tyrells just have to go "Sansa will go to the wedding wearing a hairnet with poison in it. Question her, she will tell you LF gave it to her." (well, she would likley narc on Dontos, then Dontos would narc on LF).

Or there's just "Your grace, Lady Olenna Tyrell/Lord Petyr Baelish approached me about killing the king. I can't prove it but I would watch out."

That would probably be enough for Cersei to turture LF/Olenna into confessing.

 

Again, why go over all that trouble? the Tyrells don't bring anything to the table.

LF's MO the entire series is:

Ingratiate yourself with powerful ally, get rewarded, betray them for another powerful ally.

He ingratiates himself with Lysa. Gets to Jon through her. Benefits from the relationship. Kills Jon. Ingratiates himself with Ned. Betrays Ned. Ingratiates himself with the Lannisters. Benefits. Betrays the Lannisters (unknowingly so far). Ingratiates himself with the Tyrells. Betrays Lysa. Benefits.

Who knows what his end-goal is, but he's clearly selling his schemes and services to whoever benefits him most at the time. He doesn't betray an old master until he has a new master, and NONE of them suspect him because he's originally an unassuming low-level lord that they consider useful.

He's probably gunning for the IT.

 

He's set up in the series as a foil to Varys, who also helps people that help his goal up to the point they are no longer helpful. But LF has no stated motives outside of his own self-interest. And sometimes it doesn't work, like with Ned trying to rule the kingdom with him, then jumping ship when Ned didn't want to go along with it.

 

He's going to have an angle with the Tyrells, we just don't know it yet.

[House Cambodia]

1 hour ago, Sevalemer said:

LF's MO the entire series is:

Ingratiate yourself with powerful ally, get rewarded, betray them for another powerful ally.

He ingratiates himself with Lysa. Gets to Jon through her. Benefits from the relationship. Kills Jon. Ingratiates himself with Ned. Betrays Ned. Ingratiates himself with the Lannisters. Benefits. Betrays the Lannisters (unknowingly so far). Ingratiates himself with the Tyrells. Betrays Lysa. Benefits.

Who knows what his end-goal is, but he's clearly selling his schemes and services to whoever benefits him most at the time. He doesn't betray an old master until he has a new master, and NONE of them suspect him because he's originally an unassuming low-level lord that they consider useful.

He's probably gunning for the IT.

 

He's set up in the series as a foil to Varys, who also helps people that help his goal up to the point they are no longer helpful. But LF has no stated motives outside of his own self-interest. And sometimes it doesn't work, like with Ned trying to rule the kingdom with him, then jumping ship when Ned didn't want to go along with it.

 

He's going to have an angle with the Tyrells, we just don't know it yet.

Welcome to the forum, newdude. I 100% agree with your analysis, but I'll add just one key point. Whilst LF is a cold, calculating machine, he has his Achilles' heel, which has the plot-purpose of being his ultimate downfall. His initial weakness was Catelyn, and he has now transferred that to Sansa. He had little reason to 'save' her from the Purple Wedding - it was an uncharacteristic risk for him to take. So even LF, the most heartless character in the tale, has his own 'heart in conflict with himself' dimension. There's no great twist here - we know it's going to happen, we just don't know how or when.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

I think the theory I hate is R + L = J, I never liked it from the start and I am still not sure GRRM will thread that path, especially with all the hype around it.

[Club-foot cleft-lips]

8 minutes ago, Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom said:

I think the theory I hate is R + L = J, I never liked it from the start and I am still not sure GRRM will thread that path, especially with all the hype around it.

First off, Happy birthday. I peaked at your profile page.

next.. Do you have a preferred Jon parentage theory? or more fun, a preferred R+L child that you like the idea of more?

[House Cambodia]

33 minutes ago, Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom said:

I think the theory I hate is R + L = J, I never liked it from the start and I am still not sure GRRM will thread that path, especially with all the hype around it.

So what do you make of the Origin Story of the TV show? The one where GRRM accepted D&D as showrunners because they were the only ones to work out that formula?

 

For me, it's D&D - done and dusted.  If it affects GRRM's writing going forward, it will be that he doesn't build it up to be a huge biga55 reveal because we all know and are bored with it by now.

Edited April 10 by House Cambodia

[CamiloRP]

3 hours ago, Sevalemer said:

He ingratiates himself with Lysa. Gets to Jon through her. Benefits from the relationship. Kills Jon.

Killing Jon started the war, which he needed to get a title and better standing. Not only did it start the war, but it started a sort of "intelligence warfare" in which he was extremely valuable to all sides, despite having no army, and allowed him to manipulate all sides at the same time, as all sides were in the same location.

He integrated with Lysa because they know eachother from childhood, and she was obsessed with him.

 

Quote

Ingratiates himself with Ned. Betrays Ned.

By betraying Ned he got Harrenhall and to keep his job as Master of Coin, which he would've lost if Ned placed Stannis on the throne.

He integrated himself with Ned because Catlyn knew him as a child, and vouched for him, also he helped Ned with both the murder of Jon Arryn and the attempted murder of Bran, partially gaining his trust.

 

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Betrays Lysa. Benefits.

By betraying Lysa he got untampered control over Robert Arryn, as well as to save Sansa, whom he's obsessed with.

 

Quote

Ingratiates himself with the Lannisters. Benefits. Betrays the Lannisters (unknowingly so far). Ingratiates himself with the Tyrells.

What does he gain by betraying the Lanniters? In each previous betrayal he gained something.

Also, what conditions make the Tyrells trust him, so he can integrate himself with them and, can he ever integrate with him if they know he betrayed his previous allies?

After all, Horesbane Umber says:

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"A dog who turns against his master is fit for naught but skinning."

 

Quote

He's going to have an angle with the Tyrells, we just don't know it yet.

Is maybe having influence over the Tyrells better than definitely having influence over the King and being considered a trusted ally by the queen and her family?

And again, what do the Tyrells gain from him?

How did each side knew they could approach regicide without immidiately being turned in?

 

[Sevalemer]

34 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Killing Jon started the war, which he needed to get a title and better standing. Not only did it start the war, but it started a sort of "intelligence warfare" in which he was extremely valuable to all sides, despite having no army, and allowed him to manipulate all sides at the same time, as all sides were in the same location.

He integrated with Lysa because they know eachother from childhood, and she was obsessed with him.

 

By betraying Ned he got Harrenhall and to keep his job as Master of Coin, which he would've lost if Ned placed Stannis on the throne.

He integrated himself with Ned because Catlyn knew him as a child, and vouched for him, also he helped Ned with both the murder of Jon Arryn and the attempted murder of Bran, partially gaining his trust.

 

By betraying Lysa he got untampered control over Robert Arryn, as well as to save Sansa, whom he's obsessed with.

 

What does he gain by betraying the Lanniters? In each previous betrayal he gained something.

Also, what conditions make the Tyrells trust him, so he can integrate himself with them and, can he ever integrate with him if they know he betrayed his previous allies?

After all, Horesbane Umber says:

 

Is maybe having influence over the Tyrells better than definitely having influence over the King and being considered a trusted ally by the queen and her family?

And again, what do the Tyrells gain from him?

How did each side knew they could approach regicide without immidiately being turned in?

 

Are you agreeing with me here with these quotes?

The Lannisters trusted him after he betrayed the Starks.  Why wouldn't the Tyrells trust him after he betrayed the Lannisters for them?

He's still trusted by the royal family because they don't know he betrayed them. And like I said, we don't know what reward he is going to get from the Tyrells because the book isn't written. He didn't know he was going to get Harrenhal before he betrayed anyone. He saw it as an opportunity to improve his standing somehow and it worked. It's likely the same thing here.

 

The Tyrells gain Joffrey not being king. Clearly, Olenna is the real head of the household and understood he was cruel and uncontrollable.  And they had thrown their lot in with the Lannisters by agreeing to the alliance in the first place, to make up for initially being traitors. Olenna says all of this.

 

Tommen is younger, gentler and likely easier to manipulate to the Tyrell's benefit with Margaery in his ear.

 

Olenna thought the risk of being caught in a regicide was worth killing Joffrey.  When you play the game of thrones etc etc.

 

It's a theme of the series.

2 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

Welcome to the forum, newdude. I 100% agree with your analysis, but I'll add just one key point. Whilst LF is a cold, calculating machine, he has his Achilles' heel, which has the plot-purpose of being his ultimate downfall. His initial weakness was Catelyn, and he has now transferred that to Sansa. He had little reason to 'save' her from the Purple Wedding - it was an uncharacteristic risk for him to take. So even LF, the most heartless character in the tale, has his own 'heart in conflict with himself' dimension. There's no great twist here - we know it's going to happen, we just don't know how or when.

I'm torn between his character arc ending as not learning his lesson from Catelyn or having learned the ultimate lesson (for him) by eventually betraying/using Sansa even though he has a soft spot for her. Her being the key to the North from his standpoint means she has objective value outside of sentimentality.

 

I think LF is destined to 100% die either way the chips fall.

[House Cambodia]

19 minutes ago, Sevalemer said:

I'm torn between his character arc ending as not learning his lesson from Catelyn or having learned the ultimate lesson (for him) by eventually betraying/using Sansa even though he has a soft spot for her. Her being the key to the North from his standpoint means she has objective value outside of sentimentality.

 

I think LF is destined to 100% die either way the chips fall.

For me, all the signs point towards his 'soft spot'/creepy obsession for Sansa being his downfall. He's absolutely gaslighting/manipulating Sansa, because that's what he does, but that doesn't mean he'll betray her. Rather, Sansa 'waking up' to his wiles will be a crucial aspect of her character arc. I actually enjoyed the way D&D portrayed it with that Winterfell trial in the disastrous S8 although I expect it to work differently in the upcoming book(s).

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

11 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

He had little reason to 'save' her from the Purple Wedding - it was an uncharacteristic risk for him to take.

If Sansa wasn't extricated she would have been interrogated and could have been quite the loose end.  Getting her out of Kingslanding, eliminating Dontos along the way sets her up as a patsy and a co conspirator in her husband's murder plot which keeps the suspicion away from Oleanna and the Tyrells. If Littlefinger didn't get her out, he would have had to find another way to keep her from talking.

[House Cambodia]

15 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

If Sansa wasn't extricated she would have been interrogated and could have been quite the loose end.  Getting her out of Kingslanding, eliminating Dontos along the way sets her up as a patsy and a co conspirator in her husband's murder plot which keeps the suspicion away from Oleanna and the Tyrells. If Littlefinger didn't get her out, he would have had to find another way to keep her from talking.

Sansa didn't know anything about the plot.

[sifth]

That someone other than Joffrey is responsible for Bran's assassination attempt. Listen, like many it doesn't make a whole lot of sense and honestly I think George only did it to subvert expectations, but I doubt George would have not one, but two characters realize it was Joff's doing, it he meant for it to be a red herring.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

4 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Sansa didn't know anything about the plot.

She knew Dontos gave her the hairnet. She also knows that she didn't conspire with Tyrion to kill Joffrey.

[House Cambodia]

6 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

She knew Dontos gave her the hairnet. She also knows that she didn't conspire with Tyrion to kill Joffrey.

LF has killed Dontos, so no leads there. She knows a negative - but torturers won't be content with that. Note Cercei getting Qyburn to extract false confessions.