NFL Playoffs 2024: How The Hell Are The Lions In The Final Four??? Inconceivable!

[DMC]

This fucking country man.  Can't even have a goddamn Super Bowl parade.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Called it, this was a case of when keeping it real went wrong. Three idiots, likely shitfaced, started firing at each other over a dispute. Fucking assholes. 

[aceluby]

Do we have any Chicago fans here?  I assume not otherwise I would have thought there would be more talk, but what do folks think about trading Fields away for Caleb?  I think it's monumentally stupid, but par for the course in 'ol Chi-town.

[Maithanet]

I'm not a Chicago fan, but I think it's the right move.  Fields has had three seasons to show he can be the franchise QB in Chicago.  Statistically, Fields isn't even close to where you want a starting QB to be.  He's 10-28 as a starter.  His total passing and running touchdowns is 54, compared to 41 turnovers.  That's really bad.  He also carries injury risk as his running is his one elite skill.

Could he get better? Sure, his highlight reel is great.  But that's not a good way to make decisions as a gm.  And if you're sticking with Fields, you're gonna need to pay him a huge contract soon, because starting QBs (even middling ones) are super expensive.

Compare that to Williams who could be a great QB, or a good QB or a bust.  If he's either of the first two, you are better off with Williams on rookie money than Fields.  So if you think Williams is good (and most scouts think he could be very good) then you basically have to take him.

The Colts replaced Peyton Manning for a rookie and Justin Fields is no Peyton Manning.

Edited February 22 by Maithanet

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Could he get better? Sure, his highlight reel is great.  But that's not a good way to make decisions as a gm.  And if you're sticking with Fields, you're gonna need to pay him a huge contract soon, because starting QBs (even middling ones) are super expensive.

Yeah this is the decisive factor for me on why I'd be in favor of trading Fields.  He may make you regret it, but probably not.  Might as well roll the dice on the new guy that you can control/have for cheap for four years.

[Rhom]

Heck, I’m still of the opinion that they should trade Fields and the top overall pick for a boatload of first and second rounders for the next two years and load up on offensive and defensive lines, then take a swing on a QB in the middle of the first round in a couple years.

[Maithanet]

I question how high Fields ceiling even is at this point.  He's not going to become a great pocket passer.  Maybe he could find a situation where his athleticism puts enough pressure on the defense that he can be effective in spite of that, like a faster cam newton.  But that will only last as long as his athleticsm does, and he's nowhere near the size of Newton or Allen.  

[dbunting]

So if all of us "experts" can see that Fields isn't elite, then why would Atlanta or anyone else trade for him? Make Chicago cut him and then scoop him up.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So if all of us "experts" can see that Fields isn't elite, then why would Atlanta or anyone else trade for him? Make Chicago cut him and then scoop him up.

Because he's still a competent starting quarterback with only a $6 million cap hit next season with some upside.  That's easily good for a 3rd rounder.  My bet would be a 2nd rounder, probably in the 50-60 range.

The interesting thing will be if the team that trades for him picks up his fifth year option for 2025.  Pretty sure Over the Cap estimates that will cost about $25 million.

[Kalbear]

I think it doesn't matter and they'll likely fuck up Williams as much as they fucked up Fields. I don't think Fields is going to be the long term answer regardless, mind you, but I also don't trust this organization's rating ability - after all, they're the ones who ultimately went for Fields in the first place. 

49 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Heck, I’m still of the opinion that they should trade Fields and the top overall pick for a boatload of first and second rounders for the next two years and load up on offensive and defensive lines, then take a swing on a QB in the middle of the first round in a couple years.

I guess? At least with Williams he's universally considered a good pick; I don't know that I'd trust them to make a good pick on a middle first rounder later on, and those have not been historically amazing. As, ya know, Justin Fields himself demonstrates. 

My personal view is that Chicago isn't going to be Chicago until they have a great defense and have a competent QB that can occasionally do some neat things. Fields may be good enough for that, but I suspect he's too mistake-prone and too inaccurate to sustain that sort of thing. 

[Rhom]

3 hours ago, Kalbear said:

My personal view is that Chicago isn't going to be Chicago until they have a great defense and have a competent QB that can occasionally do some neat things. Fields may be good enough for that, but I suspect he's too mistake-prone and too inaccurate to sustain that sort of thing. 

So we essentially agree in concept. Historically, there’s a higher “hit” rate on highly drafted linemen than QBs.  So build those trenches that you really need to win in the Windy City.  Then go draft a guy or trade for a Kirk Cousins type.  

Let’s not forget, the Sex Cannon took the Bears to the Super Bowl.

[Rhom]

In other news… does anyone believe Drake Maye is going to be as good as the talking heads are talking about?

Convince me he’s not the next Mitch Trubisky.

Edit:  Full disclosure, I’m still bitter his brother knocked Fox/Bam/Monk out in the Elite 8 in 2017.

Edited February 23 by Rhom

[Kalbear]

7 minutes ago, Rhom said:

So we essentially agree in concept. Historically, there’s a higher “hit” rate on highly drafted linemen than QBs.  So build those trenches that you really need to win in the Windy City.  Then go draft a guy or trade for a Kirk Cousins type.  

Let’s not forget, the Sex Cannon took the Bears to the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I think I'd rather go hire some good but not great QB instead of betting it on a pick in the midrange. Or do both, honestly, and go after someone like Cousins or Geno Smith while otherwise focusing on the defense. Picking a midrange first QB means that if you do hit you'll be set for a few years for cap reasons, and that's cool - but it's probably too risky to bet on them succeeding right away. 

But ultimately the biggest problem is talent evaluation and I don't see how that gets fixed. 

[dbunting]

13 hours ago, DMC said:

Because he's still a competent starting quarterback with only a $6 million cap hit next season with some upside.  That's easily good for a 3rd rounder.  My bet would be a 2nd rounder, probably in the 50-60 range.

The interesting thing will be if the team that trades for him picks up his fifth year option for 2025.  Pretty sure Over the Cap estimates that will cost about $25 million.

This statement boggles me. Why would a team trade a 2nd rd pick and then not pick up the 5th year option? That would mean he would only be the QB there for one season, learning a new offense, and you lose a 2nd rd pick for that one season? It's not like he is a QB to be the last piece on a SB ready team like Brady was. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

This statement boggles me.

Thought it was pretty clear - the cost.  It’s quite possible a team will be able to re-sign him for significantly less than $25 million AAV.  

[DMC]

Pretty cool quotes from Steve Spagnoulo on Purdy...

Quote

Spags, after saying he believes Purdy was terrific, went out of his way to reach out to the 49ers QB:

“I’ll be honest with you, I just texted Brock today. I tried to track down his cell number. I just wanted to tell him how much respect I have for him. And what a terrific game he played. He’s such a quality guy. Strong, Christian man. I respect all of that. I’m happy for all his success.

I’m glad he didn’t have quite the real good game.”

...Well, other than the annoying Christian part.

[Maithanet]

Purdy played well in the Owl.  Not perfectly or anything, but as well as could be reasonably expected.  He isn't the best player on that offense, and he isn't expected to be.  But he made a few big plays and no terrible ones, and that's pretty dang good. 

I do think it's funny how there are a few guys who are proven, consistent winners as coordinators, but just can't get it done as head coaches.  Spagnuolo and Wade Philips are probably at the top of the list.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I do think it's funny how there are a few guys who are proven, consistent winners as coordinators, but just can't get it done as head coaches.  Spagnuolo and Wade Philips are probably at the top of the list.

I don't think that's very surprising at all. Being a head coach in the NFL takes a bunch of different executive skills that coordinators don't need to worry about at all (or rarely), including probably the biggest one - managing managers (and in theory managing managers of managers). Some coordinators don't even do a ton of player management at all - they are there to simply ensure every player can do the things they need them to do and have the plans in place, but they're not there to salve egos or worry about player development or all sorts of other things. 

IMO, this is why it's often the case that head coaches that are successful come from head coaching positions in smaller schools first, instead of going through coordinator roles. Not always - some do fine - but I suspect there's a lot more evidence of doing the stuff you need to do as a coach when you've done, say, coaching at a D3 school instead of being a successful coordinator. 

[Maithanet]

In many ways the job closest to being head coach is special teams coordinator.  You need to know and work with every single guy on the roster (save the starting qb), and get them to execute your plans in very limited prep time.  You need excellent time management.  And you need to be able to work with other coaches to make sure guys are available for each package or scenario you might run into.  If two linebackers get hurt one week, you might need to pull in the #3 WR to cover punts and teach him to do that job (at a professional level) in just a couple of hours.  Plus, while they're called "special", really you are running both offensive and defensive plays, and you're the only coordinator doing that.

I've always thought it's a shame that so often special teams coordinator is a dead end job that never gets consideration for the top chairs.  Considering how few guys have gotten the opportunity, the track record of special teams coordinators getting head coaching jobs is pretty solid.  Belichick and Cowher were both special teams coaches before becoming dcoordinators, and John Harbaugh went from special teams coordinator to secondary coach then straight to head coach. 

[DMC]

So the official cap number for the 2024 season came out today at $255.4 million.  That's over a $30 million increase from last year and about $12 million more than what everybody projected as recently as a week ago.

This is great news for the Niners.  They actually should be able to improve their roster for at least this coming season without undertaking a ton of restructures.  Hitting on this draft is still vital, but these increases should keep their window open a lot longer if they can continue developing talent as ShanaLynch have throughout their tenure.