Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Bironic]

20 hours ago, Toth said:

So I'm seeing reports that a Ukrainian Yak-52 trainer has shot down a Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone using its machine guns. That's old school, damn.

On one hand it’s crazy to see „ancient“ tech at the same time as the most modern technology, otoh it makes sense to use things such as machine guns against drones. Machine guns are cheap, reliable and perfectly capable at shooting down targets that are unarmored, fly at comparable low speeds and are not too far away…

[Kalbear]

Lots of bad news about Russian tactical successes in the last few days. Reports of several successful advances of multiple kilometers with little resistance. In addition a changing of battalions got messed up for a second time and Russia took a good chunk of an undefended town. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-forces-advance-unopposed-due-to-ukrainian-troops-blunder-2024-4

 

Edited April 29 by Kalbear

[ThinkerX]

On 4/20/2024 at 6:57 AM, SeanF said:

Russell Bentley, a Texan who went out to fight for the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic in 2014, and was an enthusiastic pro-Russian YouTuber, has just had his head chopped off by Russian soldiers, who mistook him for a spy.

In a possible connection with this, there is rampant speculation on another site that a (Russian? American?) poster there might be looking at a similar fate 'American Tourist in Moscow'). I debated with him a couple of times there - he came across as very pro-Russia, very rigid in thought, and contemptuous of the US. I couldn't decide if he was a Russian pretending to be a US citizen or a Trump supporter who went to Russia.

[Werthead]

A group of gunmen in Karachaevo-Cherkessiya attacked a police checkpoint, using both guns and IEDs. Two policemen were killed and four wounded, along with five attackers.

Karachaevo-Cherkessiya isn't in the news that much, but it's one of the Caucasus republics, not far from Chechnya.

Perun's latest analysis, confirming that US resupply and new recruits should help stabilise the situation but Russia could make noticeable, if not significant, gains in the meantime.

One idea I've seen floated a few times recently is the idea of French troops, possibly joined by others, being deployed inside Ukraine to guard the border with Transnistria and Belarus, which would release 20,000 Ukrainian troops to immediately redeploy to the front.

A nice idea but I'm not seeing any sign of France, let alone its allies, being ready to do that imminently.

[Werthead]

More than 30 significant targets in Crimea destroyed over the past fortnight, including a massive strike on Dzhankoy and Gvardeyskoye last night involving 12 ATACMS. Some Russian milbloggers are saying the situation is developing where AA is destroyed, so Russia moves additional AA forwards onto Crimea where it gets destroyed again. At a certain point, AA assets will not be readily available and they believe at that point Ukraine will bring down the bridge and hit everything they can in Crimea to force a mass panic of the civilian Russian population. Whether that'll be enough for Ukraine to retake Crimea in some fashion is unclear (although it's not certain how they'd achieve that without breaking through the front in Kherson Oblast, and presumably with Russian ground forces remaining intact; the bridge going down hugely complicates reinforcement, but does not prevent it).

At least one milblogger also saying he believes "dangerous tensions" existing with Russian society and are getting more dangerous by the day; possibly a commentary that despite Putin appearing strong this may be illusory and more likely to snap as the war drags on. Maybe a reference to the rumours of Shoigu being caught up in the latest political controversies in Moscow; if Putin feels he needs to remove Shoigu, that's a major ally being effectively removed from the picture.

Britain has delivered 50 AS-90 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, which is around 2/3s of its AS-90 fleet and realistically probably its entire operational stock.

[Bironic]

The USA bought 81 old no longer flightworthy Soviet fighter jets like Su 24 and MiG 29 from Kazakhstan at 18000 dollars per jet. 
There are two probable uses for Ukraine: first these can be cannibalized for spare parts, second they can be used as decoys so that Russia targets them instead of actual flightworthy planes. It’s also noteworthy that Kazakhstan a country that is part of Various military and political alliances with Russia has agreed to sell them.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Bironic said:

The USA bought 81 old no longer flightworthy Soviet fighter jets like Su 24 and MiG 29 from Kazakhstan at 18000 dollars per jet. 
There are two probable uses for Ukraine: first these can be cannibalized for spare parts, second they can be used as decoys so that Russia targets them instead of actual flightworthy planes. It’s also noteworthy that Kazakhstan a country that is part of Various military and political alliances with Russia has agreed to sell them.

Unfortunately this is probably not true.

https://www.businessinsider.com/claims-us-buying-soviet-era-aircraft-from-kazakhstan-likely-false-2024-4

[Bironic]

I wasn’t sure if it was true, only when I saw a relatively reliable German news source reporting it, Alongside some more partisan/dubious ones, I thought it might be true. But apparently not. Thanks for the clarification 

[Werthead]

17 hours ago, Bironic said:

The USA bought 81 old no longer flightworthy Soviet fighter jets like Su 24 and MiG 29 from Kazakhstan at 18000 dollars per jet. 
There are two probable uses for Ukraine: first these can be cannibalized for spare parts, second they can be used as decoys so that Russia targets them instead of actual flightworthy planes. It’s also noteworthy that Kazakhstan a country that is part of Various military and political alliances with Russia has agreed to sell them.

I would not be surprised.

Kazakhstan has a complicated relationship with Russia. It got out from under the Soviet Block and then, recognising the reality of the situation, immediately pursued good relations with Russia (and China). This was most notable in the continued use of Kazakhstan's cosmodrome for the Russian space programme. Kazakhstan also joined various Russia-led organisations and initiatives, and pursued a course of friendliness with Russia whilst also opening themselves up to good relations with the US and elsewhere. During the War on Terror, Kazakhstan closely cooperated with the United Stats and its allies, and provided logistical support for operations in Afghanistan.

Where problems kicked off is with the Russian ethnic minority who live along the border with Russia, and some distance inland. This minority is sizeable, making up 15.2% of Kazakhstan's population of 20.1 million, or about 3 million people. The group has caused various problems for the Kazakh government over the years, looking to Moscow for leadership rather than Astana. The Russian government has at times referred to this border region as arguably part of Russia itself and the people there desiring unification with Russia.

In 2013 Putin said that he did not believe that Kazakhstan had a distinct statehood or sovereign identity, alarmingly similar to statements he had made about Ukraine at various times. President Nazarbayev rebuked him severely and threatened to withdraw Kazakhstan from various bilateral and multilateral alliances and organisations headed by Russia. Apparently Putin apologised behind closed doors.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia-Kazakh relations have deteriorated alarmingly. Kazakhstan refused to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, referring to them as quasi-entities rather than legal entities, and has not recognised them as part of Russia. Kazakhstan also started complying with the international sanctions regime against Russia in September 2023, and provided a safe haven to young Russians fleeing the country. They later changed their mind and deported several Russian deserters, apparently with the dual purpose of both appeasing Moscow and restoring deteriorating relations and also reducing the Russian population of the border area (even if mostly negligibly). Kazakhstan has several times called for Russia to end the war and has provided humanitarian aid and support to Ukraine.

Several times Russian Duma representatives and media personnel have made statements that Kazakhstan is not a legitimate country and is not a sovereign nation, instead a part of Russia that has temporary autonomy and will be returned to the fold. Similar statements made about other former Soviet countries, including Belarus and Tajikistan, drew sharp condemnation from the Kremlin; such statements about Kazakhstan have not drawn similar rebukes.

Kazakhstan has sharply increased military spending and has looked to closer ties with both China and the United States. It is believed that China has confirmed to Russia its support and belief in Kazakhstan's continued independence behind closed doors. However, in January the head of the Kazakh diaspora in Moscow was arrested on charges of spreading false information. A senior Kazakh journalist said last year that if Russia invaded Kazakhstan, its army would be left burning on the steppe, which went down well with the Kazakh audience.

Kazakh approval of Russia has dropped from 87% in 2019 to 13% in 2022, and the number of Kazakhs believing that Russia will invade Kazakhstan has doubled in as many years.

A Russian invasion of Kazakhstan would be logistically complicated by the harshness of the terrain and the much larger distances that would need to be traversed versus Ukraine; however, Kazakhstan has a far smaller population (20 million to 44 million), a much less experienced military, a very small military (only 245,000 combined active and reserve) and only moderate equipment, limited to MiG-29s and 31s, and Su-27s. They do have S-200 and S-300 AA systems, but only around 20. They do have 300 T-72s, and like everyone else have a drone programme in development. Overall their military capabilities are inferior to Ukraine's, but not non-existent.

Edited May 1 by Werthead

[Werthead]

Owch. Three ATACMS missiles directly struck a Russian training ground near Kuban, Luhansk Oblast. It looks like one group of Russian soldiers was hit directly by one of the missiles, with around 100 killed or injured in one hit.

The Ryazan oil refinery, owned by Rosneft, was hit and set alight last night.

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

A Russian invasion of Kazakhstan would be logistically complicated by the harshness of the terrain and the much larger distances that would need to be traversed versus Ukraine; however, Kazakhstan has a far smaller population (20 million to 44 million), a much less experienced military, a very small military (only 245,000 combined active and reserve) and only moderate equipment, limited to MiG-29s and 31s, and Su-27s. They do have S-200 and S-300 AA systems, but only around 20. They do have 300 T-72s, and like everyone else have a drone programme in development. Overall their military capabilities are inferior to Ukraine's, but not non-existent.

Also noteworthy that Kazakhstan's 2022 GDP was 40% higher than Ukraine's.  Pretty impressive considering that the Kazakhs have half the population.  Obviously their GDP is still well behind Russia, but Kazakhstan's ability to defend itself could (and likely will) increase dramatically in the next few years. 

[Bironic]

Some addendum to the above: Kazakh economy is almost entirely dependent on the export of the vast amount of natural resources, which made a few filthy rich but did not translate much into the greater population and their regime is extremely authoritarian. Shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine they called on Russia and their military alliance to crack down on widespread protests in Kazakhstan, that they couldn’t handle themselves anymore. The current and the former dictator seem also have moved away from each other. Together with the ethnic minorities in Kazakhstan, the relatively small and ill equipped/ trained military makes me somewhat doubtful if the Kazakhs would actually defend their own government like the Ukrainians did…

[Makk]

The 30th of April was the first day Russia didn't advance in the Ocheretyne direction since the breakthrough. It is too early to celebrate, and it's likely partially because Russia needs to resupply and reorganize, but every day to shore up the defenses and get more ammunition to the front is beneficial.

There was a bit of conjecture that Ukraine didn't have virtually any ammunition left but videos showed that was not true. They were definitely short of men but there was very intense fighting. Videos showed a massive number of Russian casualties through drones and artillery. That was the most worried I have been since the initial invasion so it's a bit of a relief to see that Ukraine still has robust defenses. Russia has penetrated past a second trench line so it wouldn't surprise me if they spill around the edges but I think it will be contained before Pokrovst (the next significant town). 

[Hmmm]

2 hours ago, Bironic said:

Some addendum to the above: Kazakh economy is almost entirely dependent on the export of the vast amount of natural resources, which made a few filthy rich but did not translate much into the greater population and their regime is extremely authoritarian. Shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine they called on Russia and their military alliance to crack down on widespread protests in Kazakhstan, that they couldn’t handle themselves anymore. The current and the former dictator seem also have moved away from each other. Together with the ethnic minorities in Kazakhstan, the relatively small and ill equipped/ trained military makes me somewhat doubtful if the Kazakhs would actually defend their own government like the Ukrainians did…

Surely a major dimension to consider in case of a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan is that the potential military assistance from the West would consist of far less stuff than what Ukraine is getting? Both because of cultural reasons and basic geography. I think it would all come down to whether China would permit Russia to go ahead with something like this or not. 

Edited May 1 by Hmmm

[Corvinus85]

Aren't there projects in the works to further develop the Central Asian trade corridor which passes through Kazakhstan that connects Chinese goods with European markets? 

I imagine China would be extremely unhappy if that trade route is disturbed. 

[Maithanet]

58 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

 

I imagine China would be extremely unhappy if that trade route is disturbed. 

They would.  The Ukraine-Russia war has been a mixed bag for China, but this would be almost entirely downside. 

[Werthead]

13 hours ago, Makk said:

The 30th of April was the first day Russia didn't advance in the Ocheretyne direction since the breakthrough. It is too early to celebrate, and it's likely partially because Russia needs to resupply and reorganize, but every day to shore up the defenses and get more ammunition to the front is beneficial.

There was a bit of conjecture that Ukraine didn't have virtually any ammunition left but videos showed that was not true. They were definitely short of men but there was very intense fighting. Videos showed a massive number of Russian casualties through drones and artillery. That was the most worried I have been since the initial invasion so it's a bit of a relief to see that Ukraine still has robust defenses. Russia has penetrated past a second trench line so it wouldn't surprise me if they spill around the edges but I think it will be contained before Pokrovst (the next significant town). 

I've seen suggestions that Ukraine has released strategic reserves of shells and ammunition because of the impending arrival of replacements from the US and Europe.

Also, one of the Ukrainian units that pulled back from the front (and whose replacements not getting into place in time may have caused the breakthrough) apparently resupplied ASAP and turned around to rejoin the fight, providing local reinforcement from veterans. Although they're a bit narked off that their several weeks-long leave was reduced to effectively nothing. But they'd rather that then, y'know, the front collapsing.

Pretty big Ukrainian hits in Smolensk, Oryol and Rostov oblasts, targeting Russian energy supply systems, resulting in blackouts. Drones also hit the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
 

Edited May 2 by Werthead

[Bironic]

According to Spiegel magazine (think of it as the german time magazine / economist) US State Department alleges that Russia uses chemical weapons such as PS (aka Nitrochloroform/chloropicrin) against Ukraine. This chemical was first used by the Russians in WWI and became widespread there (as Green cross in the Imperial German army f.e.) nowadays its also used as pesticide. It attacks the lungs. If true, this would be a serious breach of the Chemical weapons convention(which Russia is part of) and a war crime.

Meanwhile Ukraine has announced that it would partially suspend its adherence to the European convention of human rights so that it can fully apply martial law in its territory. Ilia vituk the head of the SBU cybersecurity team has been dismissed by Zelensky, apparently because of suspicious financial activities of his wife and harassment of journalists.

A russian national stabbed 2 ukrainian soldiers to death in Murnau am See in germany...

Edited May 2 by Bironic

[Werthead]

The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant has hit a production rate of 36,000 155mm artillery shells per month. The plant is currently on track to hit 100,000 a month next year. These aren't all going to Ukraine, but a healthy chunk are. A second ammunition production plant in Texas is coming on-stream soon.

The US has also apparently completed a "surge order" of ATACMS and is now reliably producing dozens of new ATACMS missiles every few months, enough to meet Ukrainian needs without dipping into American reserves.

Ukraine has also received a significant influx of 8-inch shells for its 2S7 Pion 203mm self-propelled cannons, allowing them to return to service after apparently spending a large chunk of the last year out of service due to ammo shortages.

Ukraine has also started hitting Russian forces along the front with their own glide bombs, air-launched from MiG-29 Fulcrums.

Germany has provided AMPS self-protection systems to Ukraine, a bolt-on system compatible with various platforms to defend them from incoming missiles at both short and long ranges. About half a dozen Ukrainian helicopters are believed to be operating the technology, and may have already deployed it in the field.

Ukrainian drones have destroyed an air defence system in Kursk Oblast.

[The Big Stink]

China will abandon Russia very soon.

 

 The problem for Ukraine is that the flower of their youthful manhood has been killed. Ukraine can replenish its ranks with refugees/immigrants from the global south. That's the only way to solve the problem unless more mercs would step up.