horangi Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Odesa hasn’t been in Russian hands since Ukraine gained independence. I'm pretty sure he's referring to the citizens of Odessa, Texas booting out the GOP in November from the city council. Matrim Fox Cauthon, Prince of the North, Darzin and 7 others 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 A Ukrainian drone strike on a refinery in Bahkortostan has set a new record for the longest-ranged Ukrainian attack to date. Additional attacks in Yurovka. Some indications that one and maybe several Russian Su-25s have been shot down near the Avdiivka front. Possibly fresh Stingers arriving at the front lines. A Russian AA team blew up their own Buk missile system, which is impressive. Germany has bought three new HIMARS launchers for Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 10 minutes ago, Werthead said: A Russian AA team blew up their own Buk missile system, which is impressive. Is this another case of the missile returning to the sender or did they blow it just by overloading something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Appears to be general ineptness, leading to them setting fire to the thing. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1788365300204708323/photo/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Stink Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 20 hours ago, horangi said: I'm pretty sure he's referring to the citizens of Odessa, Texas booting out the GOP in November from the city council. I'm referring to the fact that Russia is getting their butts handed to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 32 minutes ago, The Big Stink said: I'm referring to the fact that Russia is getting their butts handed to them. The Russians haven’t been incontrol of Odesa since 1991. BBC has announced a Russian offensive toward Karkiv: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pyv8q94g1o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 Looks like Russian forces made an armoured push from the border of Kharkiv Oblast towards the border settlement of Pyl'na. The offensive started well with multiple Russian vehicles apparently hitting their own mines, Russian mine-clearers being as efficient as the rest of the army. Once that was sorted, the advance was then interrupted on the Russian side of the border by concentrated Ukrainian artillery fire, drones and what might even be Ukrainian glide bombs (a new development in the conflict the Russians have been bitching about a lot). At least 3 BMPs were knocked out. Despite this, some Russians were able to move through Pyl'na, which has been no man's land since the Ukrainian counteroffensive, moving south-west towards Oliinykove and Morokhovets (a distance of about 2.5 kilometres). About halfway between Pyl'na and Ollinykove, they encountered a "serious" counter-attack. Exactly what happened is unclear but NASA FIRMS picked up a massive fire on the road there. A Ukrainian source is claiming that the leading Russian mechanised group was obliterated and the survivors were forced back to the border. An angry Russian milblogger (one of the government-sceptic ones) seems to have refuted that and said the Russian units were stopped on their side of the border and only a small number of recon units penetrated towards Oliinykove. The Russians are saying that they have mounted a reconnaissance-in-force over the border but not actually attacked in force with their main army yet. So a front to keep an eye on, closely. Meanwhile, Ukraine has set fire to the Pervyy Zavod refinery in Kaluga Oblast, just SW of Moscow. There has also been an ATACMS strike on Mariupol, aimed at Russian barracks. Some discontent in Russian media (unusually), as a TV show travelled to the town of Popasnaya, Luhansk, captured in May 2022. The town remains almost completely levelled with no rebuilding at all. The Czech Republic has handed over an F-16 simulator to Ukraine so Ukraine can ramp up training of its pilots in Ukraine itself. US intelligence claims that it has stopped Russia's use of Starlink. Amusingly, this was just after Russia crowdfunded a ton of second-hand Starlink terminals at around 500% markup. The situation in Georgia is deteriorating, with serious similarities to the Belarusian protests and fears that Ivanishvili may call for Russian troops to help calm the situation. Russian artwork for its Victory Day parade: Ser Reptitious, Erik of Hazelfield, Bironic and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 Does Russia have spare men to „calm“ the situation in Georgia? Do you think it is possible? How would the Georgian military react to such a thing, I mean they fought against Russia in 2008 and at least parts of them in 1991-1993…there is also a substantial group of Georgian volunteers in Ukraine, they would probably want to go back to Georgia in such a scenario. And I doubt that the Georgian population would welcome a 3-day special military operation… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horangi Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 50 minutes ago, Werthead said: Russian artwork for its Victory Day parade: Ahh yes, cunning move taking out the hotdog stand in the courtyard of the Pentagon. I'm sure it will be a major blow to morale. JGP, Maithanet and Erik of Hazelfield 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 25 minutes ago, horangi said: Ahh yes, cunning move taking out the hotdog stand in the courtyard of the Pentagon. I'm sure it will be a major blow to morale. I thought about making that joke as well. The Russians just hate that place. horangi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hauberk Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 4 hours ago, horangi said: Ahh yes, cunning move taking out the hotdog stand in the courtyard of the Pentagon. I'm sure it will be a major blow to morale. I was thinking the same thing. Ground Zero cafe no more! horangi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 7 hours ago, Bironic said: Does Russia have spare men to „calm“ the situation in Georgia? Do you think it is possible? How would the Georgian military react to such a thing, I mean they fought against Russia in 2008 and at least parts of them in 1991-1993…there is also a substantial group of Georgian volunteers in Ukraine, they would probably want to go back to Georgia in such a scenario. And I doubt that the Georgian population would welcome a 3-day special military operation… The difference here being the government telling the army to let them in, and the army has to decide whether to overthrow the government or take the path of least resistance and do nothing. Bironic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Conflicting takes: Massive Russian Shortages Hampering Large-Scale Kharkiv Assault: ISW (msn.com) With a surprise cross-border attack, Russia ruthlessly exposes Ukraine’s weaknesses (msn.com) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 9 hours ago, ThinkerX said: Conflicting takes: Massive Russian Shortages Hampering Large-Scale Kharkiv Assault: ISW (msn.com) With a surprise cross-border attack, Russia ruthlessly exposes Ukraine’s weaknesses (msn.com) Both seem to be in general agreement: Russia lacks the manpower for a major offensive to take Kharkiv or even Sumy, but seek to broaden the front to stretch Ukraine's lines and try to achieve greater successes in the Donbas. This comes as Ukraine actually made small gains on the front near Kreminna recently. The Russian nightmare has always been Ukraine penetrating their defensive lines around the twin cities (complicated by geography) and retaking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russia would probably not be able to retake them later on without an absolutely massive increase in manpower. The other nightmare is a successful Ukrainian thrust from Kherson to the Sea of Azov, cutting off Crimea. There have been several moments when that looked possible and Russian forces in the area were stretched thin, but they seemed to shore up the holes each time. Crimea remains under regular attack, though. Based on statements by Kadyrov (not the most reliable commentator, sure), it might be Russia even seeks to take significant swathes of Kharkiv Oblast to be given up in later negotiations, to prevent discussions moving on to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts being returned, which currently is beyond Ukraine's red lines (some Ukrainians have quietly been discussing an idea based on ceding Luhansk and Donetsk within the current front lines, although that is nowhere near government policy). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loge Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Shoigu is out as denfence minister. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/12/putin-to-remove-sergei-shoigu-as-russias-defence-minister Bironic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, Loge said: Shoigu is out as denfence minister. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/12/putin-to-remove-sergei-shoigu-as-russias-defence-minister They’re putting an economist over the Defense Ministry and moving Shoigu (not via a window apparently) to the “National Security Council”. It doesn’t sound like Shoigu is being fired… it sounds like he’s being promoted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 The replacement is a firm advocate of the "command economy," so he might push for the militarisation of the state economy, which Russia can't really afford and could be catastrophic. He also knows absolute jack about military matters, so that'll be interesting (mind you, neither does Shoigu, the rumour is he was leaning hard on Gerasimov but then got worried about Gerasimov replacing him, so he later held Gerasimov at arm's length). Putin is micro-managing too many parts of the war, so as long as that continues, Russia's levels of ineptness will hopefully continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 I wonder what Patrushevs new role will be, he was considered to be one of Putins closest Allies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 To me, Putin shuffling his top people around without an infusion of new blood (meaning at least two new faces with new approaches) is about as effective as rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Bironic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) I really don't understand the level of schadenfreude here. Every day Ukraine seems to control less of its territory. The BBC had a very dispiriting article a few days ago. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo The last 9 months have been extremely difficult. Maybe with increased aid things will improve but i'll wait till I see it on the ground. Edited May 13 by Padraig Bironic, Ran, Sophelia and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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