Any predictions for a TWOW prologue?

[Castellan]

These are some features of the prologues:

1.    Ice and Fire themes alternate. The next one should be fire themed.

2.    The Ice chapters have so far been set in the sparsely settled north of Westeros in difficult, cold conditions. The Fire chapters have been set further south in Westeros and the action has taken place in the midst of a group of characters who are interested in wider events and discussing them. Presumably the next prologue may shift to Essos, although not necessarily.

3.    The POVs are once-off POVs and the POV character dies.

4.    An arcane power has made itself known in most of the prologues although it’s a bit muddled. As well as seeing wights and Others in two of the ice-themed prologues, we have an ice-themed one which simply shows Varamyr unable to obtain a new host and dying. In the last fire prologue, a faceless man provides the most dramatic action, obtaining the face of an apprentice and a key to every door in the Citadel. So as well as wights and Others, talk of dragons and of glass candles and fire magic, we also see skin changing - something that has survived from the old ways, in the far north - and faceless assassins - something from Essos, possibly a lot newer than skin changing.

Based on these features, any ideas on what the prologue for TWOW might contain?

 

 

[Sevalemer]

Ice and Fire alternates is interesting, I never noticed that.

The easy prediction would be a random character on the wrong side of the Battle of Fire who realizes the Ironborn are landing and the dragons are attacking and dies, probably via dragon flame.

Harder to predict the arcane power part.

[Castellan]

Just seeing dragons in battle or perhaps the issue of whether anyone can actually control them might count as 'arcane'. It gets less arcane as the books go one and people realise all these weird things are actually happening I suppose.

I was thinking either something like you describe or someone near Dany and Drogo.

But he could have something more cunning up his sleeve, a mysterious prologue somewhere else, followed by a major battle scene from a POV.

 

 

 

[Hippocras]

I believe someone said that we already know from GRRM that the prologue will have Jeyne Westerling in it. Memory is fuzzy. But this does not mean Jeyne is the POV - just a window on her.

 

Here is an old discussion on this topic. The evidence may be somewhere in there....

 

 

Anyway, assuming this is true, my guess is the prologue will have something to do with Sybell Spicer: She practices magic from the east, and descends from Maggy the Frog.

I have also seen compelling predictions that Nymeria's wolf pack will feature, but as that would qualify as "Ice" magic, Nymeria being entirely central would not fit the alternating pattern that is quite well established.

 

Edited April 10 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

Based on information we have then, this is my best guess:

1. Jeyne, Sybell, Edmure and company are on their way to the Westerlands, but probably not arrived.

2. Sybell is insulted by Jaime and angry about his contempt at Riverrun. She is still scheming to get her children lordly (not bastard) matches.

3. Part of the scheme she concocts makes use of magic she learned from her grandmother.

4. Her efforts are interrupted by Nymeria's pack. Nymeria possibly protects Jeyne and Edmure during the subsequent slaughter, and via Nymeria Arya learns something of Sybell's methods.

[House Cambodia]

Not sure the Westerlings is really gripping enough for a prologue. Do you think it's possible some of the sample chapters we've long had were unfinished versions? I wouldn't mind 'The Forsaken' being extended to Aeron's death (Not sure if Euron is Fire or Ice).

[Hippocras]

19 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Not sure the Westerlings is really gripping enough for a prologue. Do you think it's possible some of the sample chapters we've long had were unfinished versions? I wouldn't mind 'The Forsaken' being extended to Aeron's death (Not sure if Euron is Fire or Ice).

I believe it is pretty much confirmed by GRRM himself that Jeyne is in the prologue as I said. So if that is what GRRM wants to do, I am sure he will find a way to make it sufficiently gripping and surprising.

 

I am actually quite certain GRRM left out stuff in the samples he has shared.

Edited April 10 by Hippocras

[PrettyLittlePsycho]

That Jeyne Westerling rumor has been really persistent for a long time, so I believe that´s a likely choice.

And there is potential, we haven´t seen Jeyne since the red wedding and generally we know very little about her. Her story could go many different ways from

1. She is pregnant and Robb has a legal heir to

...

...

...

10. She conspired with Tywin from the start to sow chaos in the north.

And anything in between.

[Mourning Star]

I like Forley Prester to be the PoV, the knight given charge of escorting Jeyne and Edmure West.

[KingStoneheart]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I am actually quite certain GRRM left out stuff in the samples he has shared.

I hope he has, but that’s mainly just because I’ve not read them and don’t think it’s fair that others get to read them before me and before the book is officially out haha

[KingStoneheart]

I like the whole fire and ice shuffle each book as I’ve never thought of it like that. I always just thought it was North of the Wall and then something important south.

I like someone saying above that Sybel Spicer could be doing something magicy tbh. As long as it’s not the Blackfish as the POV I will be happy as I’d like him to live until the end

[Groo]

So far bringing people back from the dead has only been R'hllor and fire magic. Maybe we get a Bowen Marsh prologue where he witnesses Melisandre bring Jon back to life before Bowen is killed in the chaos following the mutiny.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Groo said:

So far bringing people back from the dead has only been R'hllor and fire magic

I wouldn’t be so sure of that. 

[KingStoneheart]

1 hour ago, Groo said:

So far bringing people back from the dead has only been R'hllor and fire magic. Maybe we get a Bowen Marsh prologue where he witnesses Melisandre bring Jon back to life before Bowen is killed in the chaos following the mutiny.

I’d say a few things would be against this. Absolutely no way is GRRM going to kill Jon and then bring him back 4 chapters later, and also he’s said before Jayne Westerling will be in it so will be set Riverlands/Westerlands

[Mithras]

The travel to Casterly Rock from Riverrun started in Jaime VII of AFfC. After the column departed, Jaime spent 6-7 days at Riverrun as directly stated in the text and also “more days passed” in this chapter until he got Cersei’s letter. As a result, the last we saw Jaime in AFfC, Forley Prester and his column were at least 10 days into their journey to Casterly Rock. And it started snowing in Riverlands right at this moment. Then Jaime traveled to Raventree Hall for an unknown amount of time and dealt with Lord Tytos. That night he came to Pennytree, reunited with Brienne and disappeared. Then we have Cersei 1 of ADwD where Kevan visits Cersei in the jail and tells him that Jaime disappeared. Then Cersei 2 happens with the walk of shame. Finally we have the Epilogue where they still have no news from Jaime. Moreover, there is no news about Forley Prester and the hostages in the Epilogue. From the moment Forley Prester started the journey to Casterly Rock to the Epilogue of ADwD, a lot of time has passed, at least a month, maybe close to two months.

This should tell you how late the Prologue/Jaime/Brienne stuff is compared to the rest of the story and why we need to see them resolved as first thing in TWoW.

If nothing unexpected happened and Forley Prester was at Casterly Rock, Kevan could have got a raven from them and mentioned it in the Epilogue. Then I think the column has not arrived to Casterly Rock yet. To explain such a huge delay in a journey from Riverrun to Casterly Rock, we should delve into geography and travel times.

The column is taking the River Road. At the passing between the Westerlands and the Riverlands, the River Road elevates to hills and highlands. Golden Tooth is a strong castle that guards this passage in the hills. Robb was able to bypass the Golden Tooth by a goat track in the hills. He defeated the Lannister army at the Battle of Oxcross thanks to this path.

From Lannisport to Oxcross, it is three days of hard ride. I am guessing that from Riverrun to Golden Tooth, it should take at least 6 days of hard ride. That is because the distance is about twice as long and the road gets steeper once it comes close to Golden Tooth.

For a column of hundreds of people with carts and whatnot, the travel should take 5-10 times longer than a hard ride. Besides, Forley Prester is taking it very safely and he would not jeopardize the travel by forcing unnecessary speed. More importantly, if it started snowing in Riverlands proper, then it should be snowing much heavier up in the highlands where the River Road takes them to Golden Tooth. This snow can easily explain much of the delay. Golden Tooth might have become impassable. Another thing to keep in mind is that Blackfish (who participated in the Battle of Oxcross) remembers Robb’s goat track and still there might be others among the BwB. As a result, they might plan the rescue at Westerlands after by-passing the Golden Tooth through this goat track. Once there, the guards of Forley Prester might be expected to be lower now that he is in his home country with the only road at his back guarded by a strong castle.

Therefore I think the Prologue will take place in Westerlands somewhere close to Oxcross. Snowfall and other possible reasons in the Prologue will explain the huge delay. The rescuers will arrive by the goat track of Grey Wind. This rescue operation will naturally be connected to the immediate Jaime/Brienne chapters which are also late in the schedule. From there, TWoW proper will finally be able to start.

Since GRRM confirmed that Jeyne Westerling will be in the Prologue of TWoW but she won’t be the POV, most of the popular theories revolve around someone in the column being the Prologue POV, such as Forley Prester, or Ilyn Payne (who by the way is not reported to be in the column) or Sybell Spicer (who has always been my favorite). What if we are looking from the wrong way? What if the Prologue POV is someone from the rescuers? This would still allow Jeyne Westerling to be in the Prologue as GRRM promised.

Edmure is already saved from captivity once, during the Battle of the Camps. If Blackfish saves him again, it would look silly. More importantly, GRRM put heavy emphasis on how Jaime is now a changed man who learned from his past mistakes like the Battle of the Camps. He doubled the escort at least twice and he gave strict orders that the prisoners are to be killed at the first sign of a rescue operation. I believe that none of the prisoners will be saved alive by the rescuers.

For a POV inside the column, the Prologue will read like a travelogue for most of the time. Then the rescue will start and the prisoners will be killed. The rest is a bloody deathmatch. I don’t think such an arrangement has enough meat to pass a story for the Prologue regardless of the POV character. However, for a person from the rescuers, there is a lot of potential to qualify as a Prologue POV.

It is important to realize that the Prologue cannot be considered in isolation. The Prologue has to segue into a certain part of the story. In the case of TWoW Prologue with Jeyne’s confirmed presence, the chapter can only be connected to Westerlands or Riverlands. But the Westerlands option would be starting a new thread while GRRM has already excessive threads on the table. Riverlands is very late in the timeline and using the Prologue to propel the Riverlands story forward would be the best option. As a result, using someone from the Brotherhood or even Blackfish as the Prologue POV would greatly benefit the story and it can naturally follow from there to Jaime/Brienne chapters.

Another important thing with this Prologue tease is that GRRM also talked about how he mislikes being predictable. If people start thinking that he has a pattern with the Prologue and Epilogue characters (like killing them for example) he would like to break that pattern. My favorite TWoW Prologue POV is now Blackfish, with the note that he survives the chapter.

There is the possibility of a conflict between Blackfish and Lady Stoneheart. There are two missions but which one will have priority? At one hand, there is the rescue of Edmure and Jeyne. “Family, Duty, Honor” as in Tully words dictate that they should prioritize saving Edmure. At the other hand, there is the Red Wedding 2.0 at Riverrun. This option is neither family, nor duty nor honor. It is only revenge. Lady Stoneheart is likely to prioritize the bloody surprise at Riverrun over saving Edmure (based on the foreshadowing that “no man” will take Riverrun from Emmon Frey). This will cause division among the brotherhood, as some are already discontent with Lady Stoneheart’s leadership.

Blackfish knows the goat track of Grey Wind through which he can enter Westerlands and set the trap there. Because of the division among the brotherhood, he will not have as much men as he wanted and this will be one of the primary reasons for the failure. When he returns with the survivors, there will surely be an even more heated discussion among the brotherhood.

Edited April 10 by Mithras

[KingStoneheart]

I like what you’ve said Mithras! Very in depth and thought out and most likely to be the just of it all.

I like the idea of Sybel being the POV as this seems to be the only way to bring a magical sort of feeling to it, however like you say GRRM doesn’t like being predictable and his “southern” POVs so far do seem to give off a less similar vibe to those counterparts’ similarities north of the wall.

I really enjoy the idea of Ilyn Payne being the POV tbh because throughout AFFC I really feel that he’s an interesting character with significantly more about him and we will never get to know more about him as he can’t read nor write. Having him as a POV might also foreshadow Tyrion losing his tongue and remaining a POV also I guess. I’ve also always thought that out of Arya’s kill list, I really can’t see her killing Payne so was always wondering how he would die. He’s also got that trusting experience to be responsible for killing innocents instead of letting them be captured (I’m 90% sure this was the storyline with Cersei/Sansa at the Blackwater in the books as well, not just the show?)

[Castellan]

2 hours ago, Mithras said:

 More importantly, GRRM put heavy emphasis on how Jaime is now a changed man who learned from his past mistakes like the Battle of the Camps. He doubled the escort at least twice and he gave strict orders that the prisoners are to be killed at the first sign of a rescue operation. I believe that none of the prisoners will be saved alive by the rescuers.

So this is responding to a small point in your interesting post, Jaime's military skills, but anyway...

I feel strongly that Jaime has improved his military skills, but not enough. On the obvious level, on the way to Riverun, and once there, he is very aware of having good picket lines and scouts because that's how he failed last time. I think if GRRM has pointed this change out in interviews he is just doing what he's done in the book - entwined an obvious reading and a more subtle one in Jaime's POV.

Because at this rate, he will take decades to improve, fixing one problem at a time. He is a knight, not a hardened commander. And he is a romantic, not really liking a plain battle for control that has nothing to do with honour etc. He is reluctant to turn the red fork red again. Brynden is such a contrast, having concentration, experience, understanding the importance of detail. Jaime does show his Lannister flare and trickster side when he realises that Edmure is the Lord, not Brynden, and Edmure can be pressured, whereas Brynden is hard as rock. Then he makes what in my opinion will be a colossal mistake - letting Brynden escape - what with taking over a castle being quite confusing and all! His sister told him that she must have Brynden in chains because "that man is dangerous" and she is correct. Why did he not demand the important prisoners be handed over first so he could secure them? I can't help thinking that on one level he is reluctant to meet Brynden again, the great knight he admired who has shown him such contempt in his attempt to parley.

Back to Jaime's skills - he also made the mistake of making the snap judgement that because Rafford was well spoken in contrast to Shitmouth, he was one of the more acceptable of Gregor's men and was suitable to escort the two knights who wanted to take the black to the wall. I think he'd be more likely to kill them to save the bother of travel. Which will cause more mistrust of the Lannisters.

I have been thinking that Brynden will end up in the BWB camp (because I think they have scouts and small folk who tell them whats going on in the area so they mey be aware of him that way) and in confrontation with Jaime there.

Brynden is also (and alternatively) a likely candidate to attack the hostage column, if anyone does. He has said he serves his queen. Notwithstanding your reasonable objections to raiding the column  --- I think there'd be a fictional way around them! Or it could indeed be a bloodbath. Brynden would not know about the orders to kill the hostages.

 

Edited April 10 by Castellan

[KingStoneheart]

To go back to my statement earlier in the week about Ilyn Payne and as I think more about it, I am much more of the opinion that it will be him. If the Wolf Pack does attack the band (after the initial bloodshed or something) then it would be glorious to have Nymeria kill him. I can see it going something like the wolves gather around him snarling and then the big one comes forward, the eyes meet and he can tell that the eyes somehow knew him, and hated him.

[Mithras]

 

[Castellan]

Thanks!