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What Will Become of the Lannister Siblings, Part Deux


Xray the Enforcer

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Can I just say I'm immensely enjoying this discussion. Do carry on. :D

Not enough time to reply to everyone and everything in detail today, but I would like to register my agreement with everyone who says that Jaime has not become a saint, but he is trying to behave decently in whatever circumstances present themselves to him.

Of course he's still loyal to the current (illegitimate and therefore unlawful) king, and he still supports the Lannister cause. But what choice does he have, really? If he was to completely break with everyone in his family and to abandon their cause, he'd make himself an outlaw. Just how long would they let him keep his freedom, even his life, if he openly declared against Cersei, against Tommen, against his father (at the time Tywin was still alive)?

Going over to the "other side" would be no option in his particular case, either, simply because no one would want him. The Tullys? Stannis? Imagine how they would react if the Kingslayer came knocking at their door asking to be let in. They'd immediately smell a trap, never trust him.

The third option would be going into exile, of whatever sort: Become a sellsword in one of the petty wars of Essos... Settle as a peaceful hermit on the Quiet Isle, cell to cell with his good old friend Sandor... Take the black... In either of these cases, he would immediately lose whatever influence he still has on the outcome of the war. At the moment he still is a player, and I don't think he wants to give that up.

So for the moment he's decided to keep up appearances at least, but tries to conduct things at least in a decent manner, avoiding unnecessary bloodshed and waste of other resources. As Glyn Tarvoke put it very well, he's trying to limit the damage.

Yes, that's not saintly. It's just trying to be decent, as far as the circumstances allow.

As for his motivation, I don't think it is cowardice, or lack of honour. I believe that he's strongly driven by his (newly discovered) affection for Tommen. I don't think he wants him to remain king at all costs, but I do believe that he wants him to be safe at all costs, and the safest position for Tommen at the moment is, ironically, on the throne, preserving the status quo for as long as possible. I think if it wasn't for Tommen, Jaime would have turned his back on KL and on his family before now.

The things he does for love, again. Only this time it's not Cersei driving him to act less-than-saintly, it's his son, which I personally find rather touching. That scene Jaime and Tommen share in front of Tywin's bier in AFFC, when the smell makes Tommen sick and Jaime tells him how best to deal with, it nearly made me cry.

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I argued above why Riverrun would be hard to besiege (or storm), so no argument there.

The BWB might even be able to take the castle with allies on the inside.

It wouldn't make sense if they wanted to hold the Castle, but it would if they could kill as many Freys and Lannisters as possible, then steal and redistribute the food and go back into guerilla mode, leaving Riverrun empty, like Winterfell was left empty after Ramsay torched it. Not saying they would torch Riverrun though!

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They might just as well torch Riverrun because it is quite possible that Riverrun will just be left to decay if they do that.

Even the remaining Tully smallfolk will leave because they would starve if they stayed. Or would be killed for helping outlaws.

I still think the BWB would prefer to steal unobtrusively, listen to the information exchanged between the Freys and the Lannisters, and use that infomation to kill Lannisters and Freys one by one.

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While Lady Stoneheart may very well go after Riverrun, what purpose would that serve while the country is still in the hands of her family's enemies? Taking Riverrun only makes sense if there is some larger plan at work for taking control of the Riverlands. And I don't think that the BWB have such a plan, or the resources to carry it out.

The key to holding Riverrun will be that they've taken it back during the height of the Aegon invasion, so the realm will be so disorganized nobody will be able to spare the troops to deal with Riverrun. Lannisters and Freys will be so busy and so spread out that no one will be able to launch a reprisal against the Tully ghost. That ghost part will also deter the enemy, once word gets out that the ghost of Lady Tully now resides there and she made Emmon Frey poop his pants repeatedly in front of everybody as he screamed like a little gaga. But once she extends the invite to her own folks, they'll feel emboldened to return now that they have supernatural support like the gods have given the Tully's their blessing. Plus, her people will return because that's where the food is and they'll be hungry. Which is why the Brotherhood won't burn RR, they'll want to keep the prize intact. Also, once the chaos dies down, I expect the story will end with the Brotherhood once again being King's Men like they started out being, so that should give them a pardon and prevent any reprisals against Riverrun.

Jaime has not become a saint, but he is trying to behave decently in whatever circumstances present themselves to him.

As for his motivation, I don't think it is cowardice, or lack of honour.

I used the word honor too much above in connection with Jaime perhaps. It occurs to me that he's now able to accomplish more because in some ways he's left honor behind and his new religion is expediency (while others are still trapped in situations their honor won't allow them to escape from). Like at Riverrun they were stuck. They were observing the standard seige rules, with middle-of-the-road behavior that wasn't getting them anywhere. It was a dead standoff, as if time had stopped, as if the pendulum hung still and this stillness pervaded everything. Jaime got things going again by swinging the pendulum mightily so that Edmure now had two extreme options to choose from. On the one side he could choose better-than-expected terms of surrender, or things would swing the other way and he'd face an extremely horrible demise. I guess that's not honor, really. It's more like the kingslayer was willing to double down his bet in order to win a bloodless result. Expediency. It's what was missing from the U.S. supercommitte on budget reform! So I guess it was less than civilized what Jaime did..... to save the pieces of civilization. Meanwhile, our own economic nightmare still looms over us unresolved.......

So Jaime's tactics could be called many things. Among them, "using the appropriate tool." Or the Larry Cable Guy phrase would be "Get 'er dun!" Or you might hear it called "savagery". Aren't you glad as a reader that we're not still sitting there with the siege going on and on with no progress, though? So there's something to be said for his methods. They exceded the usefulness of honor, for example. He's had shit for honor for some time because of an incident in which he did the proper thing. So maybe doing the right thing is preferable to actingly in an upright manner sometimes. Maybe on occasion it's the honor that's shit. And Jaime is probably the most practiced guy at identifying those occasions because he's been living with the label for years and has had time to ruminate on the subject. So it costs him nothing to take a vital detour around honor from time to time because his reputation is already in the mud.

In other words, he's free to act more capably than other knights. Usually, we discourage people from being "capable" like this, because in most cases the only reason they'd leave the honor code behind is to abuse power. In Jaime's case, he seems to be operating on a higher step, not a lower. So instead of the customary suffering that comes from such acts, the world is instead breathing a rare sigh of relief. So far.

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So there's something to be said for his methods. They exceded the usefulness of honor, for example. He's had shit for honor for some time because of an incident in which he did the proper thing. So maybe doing the right thing is preferable to actingly in an upright manner sometimes. Maybe on occasion it's the honor that's shit.

Taking Riverrun from their rightful owners to give it to a Frey (and an especially lowlife even for a Frey, at that) by threatening to fling a baby with a trebuchet and by threatening to torture Edmure and his wife slowly to death is not exactly "doing the right thing". I do prefer "acting in an uptight manner" then, if that is the euphemism for not doing such things.

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That's the same outcome that happened in my copy! So we both read the same events and are just prioritizing different stuff it seems. I think it's "best" for Cat's folks to be in the best position moving forward after the loss, which is alive. You wanted them to not lose in the first place, or to lose in the most dogged fashion possible? But the war was lost, so it sounds like your real gripe should be with the red wedding and not with Jaime.

Walking a tightrope between two oaths Jaime did his duty to family and to Catelyn as best he could. For the crown (family) he took the castle and for Cat he prevented pointless bloodshed. These are both plusses. In a perfect world there would have been even better options like Riverrun staying in the Tully's hands. But there was no way for him to achieve that for them by acting in an upright manner. Removing himself from the battleground would have yielded the eventual slaughter and defeat of the Fish. So Catelyn wouldn't be happy with your preferred version of events either. Less so, in fact, once she heard you got the Blackfish killed and her castle ruined. (But then, hardly anybody pleases her. Even the Brotherhood kind of keeps their distance.) There was no great option, only the best available.

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I really hope that Jamie doesn't get up killed by UnCat, but that is a real possibility.

Think about it, Jamie even left a testament in what he wrote about himself in the book of the Kingsguard.

It is a secret will, as Robb's one, wrote about the same time.

I feel that we have no reason to think that he wanted to do anything of Sansa that was not giving her back to her mother, if her mother was "alive", thing that he does not know.

The whole point in Jamie's last points of view is to pacify the country, by any means necessary.

If it is by giving Sansa back to "her sit" (he does not have information on any other Stark being alive) in exchange for peace, he would do it. It is just not possible in the present, for him, because his family's, and the kingdom's plan to pacify the North is through the Bolton - Arya marriage.

So he hopes for Sansa to be alive and out of the way, which seems to him the happiest possible outcome for her. In a way, he wishes her the best.

Is he underestimating her? I think yes.

On Honour and it's importance: he is not above honour, I feel. He is trying to respect his oaths, at least their letter, as best as he can.

But he is also being consistent with the reason he felt important enough to ruin his own public reputation the first time to begin with.

Like Edmure, he cared for the people out there. He is the kingslayer, and the pyromancer's slayer, not Elia's children slayer. As with that episode, now he even has personal reasons try to put an end to the fighting: Tommen wouldn't survive a prolonging war as a king, just as Aerys ordered Tywin's death last time around (I'd really like the twist that the king's rdering "your father's" death could take if there is something we do not know with the twin's birth, but that's another story).

I do not see him killing Ceresei in any physical and direct way, though.

He already gave her her life and everything. But he is not the avenging character of the serie. He did not take not one single revenge on anybody in the whole story. He challenged Eddard to duel for his brother, and punished his refusal with the death of his men, but that was hot blooded. Jamie is not plotting a revenge on Ceresei: if he decided to punish her for betraying him, he would have got in front of her, hot blooded, when he took note of the situation, as he did with Eddard. Something we know that Jamie is not doing is to go sneaky about personal plots and motives.

So, there is nothing up to now to make me think he will kill Ceresei. She would have to give him a very good inmediate reason for him to do such a thing.

The cold-blooded ruthless avenger of the story is not him: it's UnCat.

And it could be possible to see her getting a revenge on him, for the wrong reason. She'd kill him on the Red Wedding he did not take part in. Or she'd kill him for saving his son from Robert's revenge - he didn't even kill Bran in the process; something she was not above of, menacing that Frey kid and then killing him when she wasn't able to use him to save Robb.

So, I feel Jamie could be heading for a quite unjust death at Catelyn's undying hatred, as much as I really hope for the character to survive to an happy ending, maybe tending some field or some mill with Brienne's help, somewhere. I do not feel he is the type, though: his candle burned on both sides since he was eight, and he jumped from that cliff in Casterly Rock, and he was educated as a Lion: hear me roar.

He wont hide.

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If Lady Stoneyheart took Riverrun wouldn't Edmure be executed immediately?

I find it questionable whether she would even care at this point. She might actually hate Edmure now, the latter having inadvertently made a mess of Robb's plan, following that with remaining alive while Robb and her were executed, and then, perhaps worse yet, surrendering her family's ancestral home in return for the life of his Frey child.

Actually, it had not occurred to me, but might not Catelyn be able to get Edmure back via Jaime? Or is that simply too messy of an enterprise?

I mean, from what we know, here is the situation with respect to the Riverlands:

1. Jaime is still missing, weeks after his disappearance -- presumably under the control of Catelyn.

2. The Lannisters have yet to locate the Blackfish.

3. Most of the Lannister forces remain camped and stretched out across the Riverlands.

4. The Brotherhood Without Banners have remained quiet but they do have a mole inside Riverrun.

5. The Riverrun garrison was released and free to join any and/or all factions.

6. Edmure and the hostage party is on the way to Casterly Rock (hard to say whether they have arrived yet since no mention was made of them in ADwD).

7. Since half their numbers went North (surely, never to return), the Freys only have about 2,000 men in and around the area.

8. TWoW spoiler:

King's Landing has seemingly emptied of Tyrell forces but none of them are headed to the Riverlands. They're either on their way to confront 'Aegon' or going across the continent to deal with the Ironborn. I find this point relevant because it's possible that Cersei might recall the Lannister forces to King's Landing. After all, who else is left to command them? This would essentially leave the Riverlands empty with only the Freys to deal with a guerrilla campaign being waged by Catelyn's forces.

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8. TWoW spoiler:

King's Landing has seemingly emptied of Tyrell forces but none of them are headed to the Riverlands. They're either on their way to confront 'Aegon' or going across the continent to deal with the Ironborn. I find this point relevant because it's possible that Cersei might recall the Lannister forces to King's Landing. After all, who else is left to command them? This would essentially leave the Riverlands empty with only the Freys to deal with a guerrilla campaign being waged by Catelyn's forces.

This may indeed happen the instant she wins her trial, which will be very early in AWOW. I can see book 6 being a massive cull of POVs, including Jaime's.

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That's the same outcome that happened in my copy! So we both read the same events and are just prioritizing different stuff it seems. I think it's "best" for Cat's folks to be in the best position moving forward after the loss, which is alive. You wanted them to not lose in the first place, or to lose in the most dogged fashion possible? But the war was lost, so it sounds like your real gripe should be with the red wedding and not with Jaime.

Walking a tightrope between two oaths Jaime did his duty to family and to Catelyn as best he could. For the crown (family) he took the castle and for Cat he prevented pointless bloodshed.

Looking at events now, the war actually is far from lost. Stannis will likely win in the north, and if not him than Manderly or Jon or even Sansa/Harry (not that I think the latter will ever take place, but if everything went according to LF plan it probably would happen) will take control over the north from Bolton, sooner or later. The Tyrells and Lannisters will face bigger problems than Riverrun soon: Aegon and the GC (possibly Dorne as well), the Ironborn attacking the west coast, possible open rebellion in the Vale once Sansa is in the open, word of Dany and the dragons getting out. Storm's End and Dragonstone have proven tough nuts to crack (as the former already did in Robert's rebellion as well) and Riverrun is maybe the toughest castle to besiege even if a costly storm attack has a better chance of taking it than with Storm's End.

Bottom line, I think the Blackfish could have held out until the Lannisters are forced to retreat by events in other parts of the realm. Jaime certainly didn't do the Tullys a favour, nor did he keep his oath (which was not to not slaughter prisoners of war, but to not take up weapons against Tully and Stark). That he didn't go for an all-out bloodbath is nice, but even Tywin likely wouldn't have (as he would already be thinking about pacifying the Riverlands under Frey-Lannister rule) and IMO it has very little to do with his oath to Catelyn, which he ignored in favour of his oaths to the king and the interests of his family.

I find it questionable whether she would even care at this point. She might actually hate Edmure now, the latter having inadvertently made a mess of Robb's plan, following that with remaining alive while Robb and her were executed, and then, perhaps worse yet, surrendering her family's ancestral home in return for the life of his Frey child.

Seems baseless speculation to me. Catelyn did not hate Edmure for standing his ground at the battle of the green Fork, she has no reason to hate her brother only because he is alive (does she hate Harwin and the Blackfish to, in that case?) while Robb is dead, and she knows very well (through the singer) just what kind of threats Jaime used on him.

Many don't like Stoneheart, but I think this is projection of those feelings on the expectation of what she will do. I see no reason why Catelyn would hate her brother, who has been loyal to Robb and good for his people. Contrary to what people often say, Stoneheart does not execute totally at random; even with the Freys she looks at what they did in the Red Wedding, and Brienne got the chance - twice over - to prove she was loyal, first with words and then with deeds. In spite of the evidence against her, everything pointing to her having switched allegiance to the Lannisters.

8. TWoW spoiler:

King's Landing has seemingly emptied of Tyrell forces but none of them are headed to the Riverlands. They're either on their way to confront 'Aegon' or going across the continent to deal with the Ironborn. I find this point relevant because it's possible that Cersei might recall the Lannister forces to King's Landing. After all, who else is left to command them? This would essentially leave the Riverlands empty with only the Freys to deal with a guerrilla campaign being waged by Catelyn's forces.

What's your source for this spoiler? Going by the read Arianne chapter, I disagree with your first line.

A Tyrell army is on its way to Storm's End to face Connington, naught was said about them emptying KL, presumably they keep a significant force there to protect Margaery and their interests around Tommen and the small council.

As to who is left to command Lannister forces, Daven was commanding the army before Jaime came, and there is another cousin in charge of Casterly Rock.

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Seems baseless speculation to me . . .

I'm not of those that think that Catelyn is a thoughtless monster but I wouldn't discount the possibility that her brother and his safety figures little in Catelyn's plans.

Going by the read Arianne chapter . . . As to who is left to command Lannister forces, Daven was commanding the army before Jaime came, and there is another cousin in charge of Casterly Rock.

And who put the people in question in power? With Kevan dead, and Jaime missing, Cersei clearly outranks the remaining Lannisters. They weren't even in King's Landing to see Cersei's humiliation -- and any news they hear of that will be tempered by Cersei's news about the Tyrell plot that killed Kevan. More than that though, Cersei will be in charge because, actually, Varys wants her in charge. That was the whole point in assassinating Kevan. It makes logistical sense for Varys to want a Lannister army camped in King's Landing, making the Tyrells hesitant as to sending an adequate force to deal with 'Aegon' or the Ironborn for that matter. And that, really, was my orginal point -- that there is a good chance the Lannisters forces will quit the Riverlands leaving Catelyn free to deal with the Freys. Although, that said, even a siege of Storm's End would require a good portion of the Tyrell forces.

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Everyone seems in agreement that we will soon see a confrontation between Lady Stoneheart and Jaime, and many seem to consider it a serious option that Jaime won't survive that.

I would like to put forward two alternative theories. (They contradict each other, but never mind. They're theories after all.)

Theory #1 is that that confrontation may just as well be the end of Lady Stoneheart as of Jaime. Not necessarily in the sense that he kills her directly, but maybe his capture and the question of what to do with him will lead to serious disagreements within the BwB itself (pure immediate vengeance against a more political, strategic use of his person) that may lead to Lady Stoneheart losing her position and infuence with them (if not what's left of her life). I can easily see the BwB members falling out over Jaime's case. Even more so if the Blackfish has joined with them and has a say in what will happen with Jaime. He for one certainly won't throw that card away for plain revenge. I can even see the Blackfish (tragically) finishing off his own undead niece because she no longer respects the needs of the living.

Theory #2 is that there will be no confrontation between Lady Stoneheart and Jaime at all. Maybe Brienne decides not to take him there at all. Maybe he stops Brienne (by force, by persuasion, by whatever other means) taking him there. Maybe Fate intervenes in the person of someone else entirely who stops them getting there. Somehow it seems far too obvious what's going to happen next, I think it very likely that GRRM is misleading us entirely.

As for Jaime killing Cersei personally, I don't see it happening. And why should it? Him standing by and letting it happen at someone else's hand would somehow seem more poignant. I don't think he's thirsting for his sister's death, either. He wants to be free from her influence, but I think there's no thought of revenge there, just wanting to be rid of her and keep away from her.

So, I feel Jamie could be heading for a quite unjust death at Catelyn's undying hatred, as much as I really hope for the character to survive to an happy ending, maybe tending some field or some mill with Brienne's help, somewhere. I do not feel he is the type, though: his candle burned on both sides since he was eight, and he jumped from that cliff in Casterly Rock, and he was educated as a Lion: hear me roar.

He wont hide.

I agree. It is interesting to imagine him settling down to some quiet, unambitious life. But ultimately I don't think he has it in him. Not even with the right woman (and sorry, no, Brienne is certainly not the right woman for him in that sense. I think she may just be the best mate - as in friend - he ever had in his life, but as a couple... I think I can already hear them roaring from here...). I think no matter what he does, he'll always try and make himself a place where he can still roar, where he can make things happen. I can see him taking the black (provided the Wall is still there and the Watch is still needed by the end of the series), but even then he'd make sure he's Lord Commander in no time. After all, they don't often get candidates who've filled the same position before. :D
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If Lady Stoneyheart kills Jaime, does anyone think that Brienne would continue on in her quest to save the Stark girls? Or would this make Brienne into an enemy of house Stark?

Depends on whether she kills Hyle and Pod too.

Given UnCat is using them to coerce Brienne into an action she clearly doesn't want to do, I can't imagine she'll cleave to UnCat's side once those chips are gone from the table. But given Brienne's entire AFFC plotline revolved around the Stark girls, I'll be surprised if Martin drops it.

If he does, he might as well just include a line at the end saying 'BTW, AFFC was non-canon'. Brienne's like Arya Stark, now. She's been doing nothing of importance for so long that she HAS to be on the way to do something important by the end of the series.

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Depends on whether she kills Hyle and Pod too.

Given UnCat is using them to coerce Brienne into an action she clearly doesn't want to do, I can't imagine she'll cleave to UnCat's side once those chips are gone from the table. But given Brienne's entire AFFC plotline revolved around the Stark girls, I'll be surprised if Martin drops it.

If he does, he might as well just include a line at the end saying 'BTW, AFFC was non-canon'. Brienne's like Arya Stark, now. She's been doing nothing of importance for so long that she HAS to be on the way to do something important by the end of the series.

As per the descriptions above that people project their hatred onto Stoneyheart, I don't think Stoneyheart would kill Pod and Hyle if Brienne brought Jaime to her.

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If Lady Stoneyheart kills Jaime, does anyone think that Brienne would continue on in her quest to save the Stark girls? Or would this make Brienne into an enemy of house Stark?

I agree that Lady Stoneheart is a bit single-minded, but not totally irrational. So if she made a deal with Brienne to let Pod and Ser Hyle live if Brienne kills Jaime (or delivers him to the BwB), she will keep her end of the deal.

Was sparing Pod's and Hyle's life part of that deal, though? Does it say so explicitly in AFFC?

The trouble with Brienne (and how she feels about sacrificing Jaime's life in order to save her own/Pod's/Hyle's life) is that I can't see her going through with it, not at all. It's too much of a dilemma. She may have made the deal with LS on the spur of the moment, in her panic, but I don't think it sits comfortably with her once the initial panic was over. I don't think that she's determined to kill Jaime or give him up to be killed, just like that, just because she said she would. She wouldn't be human if she managed that. So I'm convinced that Jaime is not headed for a quick death at the end of a rope, courtesy of the BwB, and therefore the question of what Brienne will do afterwards doesn't really pose itself.

But assuming your scenario is true, Jaime is killed by the BwB and Brienne is free to go - why should she blame LS or house Stark? The only person to blame would be herself, because it was she who got him killed. She'd feel massively guilty. It's not her way to go raging at someone else if she can rage at herself. Look at how she reacted when Renly was killed. So I don't think that any resentment against house Stark would stand in the way of her going on looking for the Stark girls. Maybe she may even come to pity LS, and take it on herself (with her rigid notions of chivalry) to look after her kids in order to make up for their loss of a mother.

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I agree that Lady Stoneheart is a bit single-minded, but not totally irrational. So if she made a deal with Brienne to let Pod and Ser Hyle live if Brienne kills Jaime (or delivers him to the BwB), she will keep her end of the deal.

Was sparing Pod's and Hyle's life part of that deal, though? Does it say so explicitly in AFFC?

In the epilogue of aSoS, Lady Stoneheart had that Frey hanged who came to pay ransom for his kinsman - who had been killed by that time, even though the ransom arrived on time. I would not consider it irrational to use Ser Hyle and Pod to pressure Brienne into doing her bidding, then killing them before Brienne even had a chance of following through. Just very, very devious. She'd be capable of it. And there is also the BWB, many of whom seem to agree with this sort of action plan.

It doesn't say anywhere that the lives of Ser Hyle and Pod were part of any deals. When Brienne refused to choose sword or noose, the BWB started hanging all three. Brienne saw Pod being hanged without fight, then she broke her silence. I think she was trying to save Pod at the time. We know she survived, we don't know if Ser Hyle or Pod did.

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I doubt very much that Jamie will die in the early chapters of TWOW. It makes little narrative sense if he does. GRRM spent a lot of chapters taking us through Jamie's redemptive arc... a lot of effort & words went into getting us to understand him, care about him, even like him, and for what? To kill him off-screen, or even on screen, by a vengeful, unsympathetic zombie?! For what purpose? To recreate the emotional impact of Red Wedding perhaps (I can't think of another reason)? That would be far too gimmicky, and desperate a reason for an author as good as GRRM.

Jamie's arc, to me, feels like it is far from over, I have no doubt he will be dead by the end of the series, but not yet, he still holds purpose. On the other hand, I can easily see Uncat dying at Jamie's hands. She is one character who, again to me, feels like she will have outlived her usefulness once her confrontation with Jamie is concluded.

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