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Daenerys first big military defeat.


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three teenage dragons, and she has no control on them whatsoever, no riders, nor the knolwdge to use them

she is not Aegon the Conqueror raiding a 200 years old Belarion.

Very true. Though to nitpick, Balerion was only ~100 when Aegon landed. That said, he was still way larger and far more dangerous than any dragon Dany has, since he was more or less "fully grown" and had been trained.

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three teenage dragons, and she has no control on them whatsoever, no riders, nor the knolwdge to use them

she is not Aegon the Conqueror raiding a 200 years old Belarion.

She can't control them. They're wild by nature are they not?

You're right, she's not Aegon TC. She has to learn about the dragons herself. Time will tell if she can do it or not.

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Yup, and the british empire would never lose to American rebels.

Or American technological superiority would completely crush Korea (did until Chinese involvement) or Vietnam.

Its war. Crazy stuff happens, and Dany isn't nearly the level of tactician as what was available to the British Army, McArthur, or anyone else with an actual sense of tactics.

My point is - her Dragons are a game-changing weapon. Crazy stuff does happen, but I think we'll be seeing Dany conquer Westeros with her dragons in future. Nothing in Westeros can threaten her - especially given that every Lord of every House seems to think they are the rightful person to sit on the Throne.

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My point is - her Dragons are a game-changing weapon. Crazy stuff does happen, but I think we'll be seeing Dany conquer Westeros with her dragons in future. Nothing in Westeros can threaten her - especially given that every Lord of every House seems to think they are the rightful person to sit on the Throne.

If the dragons are her ultimate weapon with which she wants to conquer Westeros, then she is basically screwed.

1) she has no control over them.

2) even if she somehow learns to control Drogon, the other two dragons still don't have riders.

3) if someone manages to ride those dragons, who is to say, they will be Dany's allies? She practically doesn't have any trustworthy friends who also can ride a dragon.

4) Everybody assumes that those dragons will be some game-changing weapons against WWs. However, I'm not so sure. Dragons don't really like rain, what will they do in the middle of a crazy snowstorm? I doubt they will be able to fly. However, they may qualify as weapons on the ground, but that's not enough to conquer Westeros/kill all WWs.

5) I'm still positive that a strong skinchanger can take control over the dragons. Like Bran/Jon/Arya. It may be a good thing, if she allies with them. However, if she wants to conquer them, she will be surprized.

So definitely, she is threatened by plenty of things in Westeros.

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If the dragons are her ultimate weapon with which she wants to conquer Westeros, then she is basically screwed.

1) she has no control over them.

2) even if she somehow learns to control Drogon, the other two dragons still don't have riders.

3) if someone manages to ride those dragons, who is to say, they will be Dany's allies? She practically doesn't have any trustworthy friends who also can ride a dragon.

4) Everybody assumes that those dragons will be some game-changing weapons against WWs. However, I'm not so sure. Dragons don't really like rain, what will they do in the middle of a crazy snowstorm? I doubt they will be able to fly. However, they may qualify as weapons on the ground, but that's not enough to conquer Westeros/kill all WWs.

5) I'm still positive that a strong skinchanger can take control over the dragons. Like Bran/Jon/Arya. It may be a good thing, if she allies with them. However, if she wants to conquer them, she will be surprized.

So definitely, she is threatened by plenty of things in Westeros.

Its not even settled if only people with valyrian blood can ride the dragons. What it is clear is that she can only ride one. Who has valyrian blood at this point? Jon, Faegon, Stannis, and the Martell offspring and Roberts bastards to a lesser degree....all of them likely her enemies.

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It's a bit disheartening to see people viewing Dany's arc as "She has too much power so her time must come".

Dany's arc is about power, it's about the struggles and successes someone with power faces. Dany having unfettered power is both an advantage and a disadvantage, every decision she make will have either a massive good effect or a massive bad effect. How she limits or unlimits her power can have massive effects. So it's not some sort of cheat that Dany is "undefeated" because many of those victories also had massive negative impacts.

I agree with this, in general.

But I don't think her power is unfettered. Her military power kind of is, but Meereen shows that it's not enough; on the contrary, it has the setback that it creates the illusion of unfettered power that leads to underestimate the other forms of power. The Meereen experience could be read as a rather harsh awakening on the matter and it remains to be seen if Dany received the message.

I don't believe she has to have a defeat on the battlefield. Isn't it a sort of defeat that success tastes like ashes?

There's an other problem as well: as I see it, her meteoric rise to power has a hidden drawback.

Acquiring power little by little is an educating proccess in itself. It allows (or rather, it forces) one to be aware on the limits of his/her power, to acknowledge that there are always opposing forces that must be taken into account and generally, to be careful in using it. Dany was deprived of those lessons.

Many readers complain about the unrealistic way that she got her power (stupid antagonists) and I would agree that this subplot requires suspension of disbelief more than we are used to in ASOIAF, but I believe there was a purpose in that, ie giving the character too much power but not the means to know how to use it properly. She's doing allright short term, but this is as far as she can get (for now).

So IMO the question that will determine her future is, which lessons will Dany choose to learn.

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Dany has the only three "weapons of mass destruction" in the known world. She is not going to face a "military defeat" in the same style of Stannis at the Blackwater. Even Robb never lost a battle, so why should Dany?

Well, so far she's been this perfect Mary Sue-esque girl who basically has most things handed to her on a silver platter (last of the dragons, Khal Drogo, dragon eggs, Daario killing the rest of the Second Sons because of her "beauty" ) and hasn't technically had a big defeat.

Thus, seeing as how this is ASOIAF, I think she'll either die, or suffer a major defeat that weakens all of her forces to the point that she becomes too weak to fight. I doubt it'll happen in (the beginning of) TWoW, though - as someone else mentioned, her defeat could be the climactic turn for the series that will end up changing a lot. Accordingly, I believe it'll happen near the end of TWoW or somewhere around ADoS.

Daario brought the Stormcrows over to her side, but she would have defeated them anyway; his support of her just meant there would be less bloodshed.

And, for what it's worth, I imagine he turned his cloak because he recognised she was going to be victorious. The other leaders would have done the same but Mero, the leader of the Second Sons, underestimated her, and Prendahl of the Stormcrows was Ghiscari.

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Dany has the only three "weapons of mass destruction" in the known world. She is not going to face a "military defeat" in the same style of Stannis at the Blackwater. Even Robb never lost a battle, so why should Dany?

1. Why not? Has she proved a better commander than Stannis? I really ask for legitimate reasons, where does certainty comes from in the statement that she will never have a military defeat compared to Blackwater?

2. Do you really want to compare her to Robb? You do know how that ended... :)

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1. Why not? Has she proved a better commander than Stannis? I really ask for legitimate reasons, where does certainty comes from in the statement that she will never have a military defeat compared to Blackwater?

2. Do you really want to compare her to Robb? You do know how that ended... :)

  1. It wouldn't make sense within the narrative for her to lose her entire army after one battle. And remember, it had nothing to do with Stannis as a commander - he lost because of Tywin and the Tyrells arriving at King's Landing.

I know, but that's my point - she doesn't need a military defeat to be defeated.

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  1. It wouldn't make sense within the narrative for her to lose her entire army after one battle. And remember, it had nothing to do with Stannis as a commander - he lost because of Tywin and the Tyrells arriving at King's Landing.

I know, but that's my point - she doesn't need a military defeat to be defeated.

1. Well, I doubt that she would lose an entire army. The fact remains that we can easily expect some troubles for her on both political and military field. Narrative in this case is a poor argument. Especially given the fact that we have seen that Stannis hasn't been won, so I doubt that even though Dany's army gets considerably smaller, it would mean the immediate end for her.

2. No, she doesn't. But that doesn't mean that she won't suffer some military defeats.

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Yeah, being an orphan from birth, living in exile your whole life, being sold to a barbarian warlord at 13, losing your husband and your baby at 14 doesn't seem like a wish fulfillment fantasy to me. ;)

Its not? Really, 'm shocked, its what I'd wish for if I had a genie.

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1. Why not? Has she proved a better commander than Stannis? I really ask for legitimate reasons, where does certainty comes from in the statement that she will never have a military defeat compared to Blackwater?

Stannis himself says that things would have gone different at the Blackwater if he would have had dragons.

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Stannis himself says that things would have gone different at the Blackwater if he would have had dragons.

Yes, no one argues that dragons are not game changers. But, the fact remains that there are many factors to easily conclude that dragons=victory. We can't equalize Dany and Aegon the Conqueror, Drogon and Balerion... If you want to argue that entire world will fall under Dany, that is your right, and certainly is a possibility based solely on the laws of probability. But, in universe such as ASOIAF, there hasn't been one person who hadn't failed at some moments. There most certainly will be bumps, and some will be difficult for Dany to overcome. Will it bring utter failure to Daenerys? Most likely not, but I doubt that everything will be that easy...

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Yes, no one argues that dragons are not game changers. But, the fact remains that there are many factors to easily conclude that dragons=victory. We can't equalize Dany and Aegon the Conqueror, Drogon and Balerion... If you want to argue that entire world will fall under Dany, that is your right, and certainly is a possibility based solely on the laws of probability. But, in universe such as ASOIAF, there hasn't been one person who hadn't failed at some moments. There most certainly will be bumps, and some will be difficult for Dany to overcome. Will it bring utter failure to Daenerys? Most likely not, but I doubt that everything will be that easy...

I view Dragons as being akin to tactical and even strategic air power. It's a big advantage of course, but it is by no means an automatic win. My own country found that out at least a couple of times in the last century.

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Young dragons can be useful in war, but they're not likely to be provide a decisive advantage on the battlefield, if even a dragon as powerful as Meraxes could be killed.

Danerys suffered partial defeat in ADWD, in that her forces had to retreat to Meereen, before the Slavers.

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