U.S. Politics: "Trump Is Dumber Than A Bag Of Hair"

[Mexal]

13 hours ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Poland's First Lady gives no fucks about Donald Trump, apparently.

Shit like this is annoying. She did shake Trump's hand, immediately after shaking Melania's. The video cut that off because it changes the narrative.

[Mexal]

9 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I'm pretty sure it was Russian agents in the State Department that purposefully didn't book hotels ahead of time so as to embarrass Hillary.  Or more seriously perhaps the whiny sort of Dems that pried the Ws off of their keyboards when 43 came into office conveniently forgot.  Brave Resistance!

Huh? 

[Fez]

4 hours ago, mormont said:

Well.. they've shown that this is true for Republicans. It's far from clear, and it would be naive to assume, that the same applies to Democrats.

When it comes to sheer politicking, there is nothing special or unique about either party. At different times, they've each had some epic failures and some stunning successes; in the past several years Republicans have generally been better at it, but Democrats have quite a few victories of their own in the not-too-distant past. There's never been a political feat that only one side was capable of achieving, and while that could change in the future, I strongly doubt it.

Except for a few cases of extreme scandal or outrageous remarks, basically every modern election in the US is a referendum on the incumbent politician/party and whether they were successful at improving things; and if they failed, the factors that led to that failure are not a consideration.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Loge said:

Well, there's a difference between being too late and "forgetting to book." It's possible that they should have known and really forgot, but we don't know that.

 

ETA: media reports of this first appeared in early April. I don't know how long in advance you have to book a hotel for an event like this, but it isn't as if they only thought of it last week. 

The real issue is that in the past its always been the State Department's job to handle logistics of presidential trips, and the State Department is criminally understaffed. They only have 9 of 143 presidential-appointment positions filled, and the positions that are supposed to do bookings are among those unfilled. There are other agencies in the government that could do this instead, but there's not been any clear transfer of authority to anyone else. Because on top of everything else, Trump and his top advisors are shit managers.

This was a problem a few months ago too, when Tillerson went on a trip and had to stay at a B&B miles away from the summit because it was the only availability when he arrived. 

[LongRider]

42 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

  Or more seriously perhaps the whiny sort of Dems that pried the Ws off of their keyboards when 43 came into office conveniently forgot

How adorable that you still have your panties in a bunch over something that never happened.

[Week]

42 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

How adorable that you still have your panties in a bunch over something that never happened.

Mind the important pieces of history - even if they are inconsequential and false.

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, Mexal said:

Shit like this is annoying. She did shake Trump's hand, immediately after shaking Melania's. The video cut that off because it changes the narrative.

I think most people know that she shook his hand afterwards, but the point of it is seeing Trump's face when he was forced to wait after he had already extended his hand.

[LongRider]

1 minute ago, Corvinus said:

I think most people know that she shook his hand afterwards, but the point of it is seeing Trump's face when he was forced to wait after he had already extended his hand.

That plus it looks like a deliberate break in protocol, intentional.  A subtle, but definite, diss. 

[OldGimletEye]

Breaking the law. Breaking the law:

https://www.theregreview.org/2017/07/05/shapiro-voter-request-illegal-controversial/

Quote

Recently, the newly created Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity sent a letter to all fifty states asking them to submit extensive information about registered voters. The letter has created an uproar among state officials, and many have announced their intention to refuse the request. President Donald Trump has tweeted his disapproval of these state refusals.

Overlooked in the controversy has been the rather obvious conclusion that, because the Commission on Election Integrity appears to have ignored the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA), its request is simply illegal.

....................

But, but, but, he got a beef deal with China!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/trump-vowed-to-wipe-out-the-trade-deficit-he-hasnt-made-much-progress/

Quote

Yet while the U.S. trade balance fell in May, it is on pace to be larger this year than last. In the first five months of 2017, the trade balance came to $233 billion, compared to $206 billion in the first five months of 2016.

 

Quote

That will likely come as unwelcome news to the Trump administration, which has persistently criticized the trade deficit as evidence that other countries are taking advantage of the United States.

There can be some problems with international trade. But, they aren’t the one’s the orange one thinks. Again the problems are 1)potential distributional issues, and 2) when trade lowers the natural rate of interest too low. 1. can be handled by, among other things, not giving tax cuts to the rich. 2) can be handled by making some very wise and prudent investments in infrastructure or even advocating the FED hit a higher inflation target.

 

Today in: General Equilibrium Theory.

Rick Perry makes an important contribution by regurgitating Says’s Law or actually who in the hell knows what he was talking about.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/06/rick-perry-offered-a-little-economics-lesson-it-didnt-go-so-well/

Quote

“Here's a little economics lesson: supply and demand,” Perry said, according to Taylor Kuykendall of Standard & Poor's. “You put the supply out there, and demand will follow."

I’d assume Rick Perrry wasn’t making some kind of banal argument about Marshall’s scissors. In partial equilibrium, if you shift the supply curve to the right, people will buy more. I’m not sure why Perry feels the need to tell us that. Everyone knows that. Or maybe Perry was angling for this weeks Captain Obvious Award.

So, I assume, Perry is being a general equilibrium theorist.

Quote

Another possible interpretation of Perry's odd remark is that he might have been repeating a theory that was once widely accepted among economists. On this theory, demand and supply will always be in balance across the economy as a whole. These days, however, many economists view this logic as deeply and dangerously mistaken.

This reasoning is usually associated with the French economist Jean-Baptiste Say, who argued in 1803 that oversupply in excess of demand across the economy as a whole was impossible (although he did not use those terms exactly).

Maybe Rick Perrry was saying that your representative firm’s maximation problem looks like:

f(l,k) – wl – rk

but, no really, it looks something like

f(l,k) – wl – rk

subject to

f(l,k)<Q where Q is a quantity constraint.

Next up: Rick Perry discusses what the Department of Energy actually does. Should be interesting.

.................................................

Trouble in Republican land?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/health-care-republicans-have-no-good-very-bad-day

Quote

According to the Senate Republican leadership’s plan, GOP lawmakers should be gearing up to pass a major overhaul of the nation’s health care system early next week. That plan, however, is now in shreds.

Instead of moving closer to their goal, Republicans appeared to be going backwards yesterday. Sen. John Hoeven (R) of North Dakota, for example, became the latest GOP senator to announce he can’t support the current version of his party’s plan. A far-right effort in Ohio to freeze the state’s Medicaid expansion program failed, increasing pressure on Sen. Rob Portman (R) not to vote for the broader GOP gambit. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), meanwhile, made his demands clear, and in the process, narrowed the window of opportunity for Republican leaders to craft a bill that would satisfy the party’s competing factions.

 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Except for a few cases of extreme scandal or outrageous remarks, basically every modern election in the US is a referendum on the incumbent politician/party and whether they were successful at improving things; and if they failed, the factors that led to that failure are not a consideration.

Right, it is not naive to assume that insofar as a party is punished for performance or (lack of) productivity, it is the incumbent party, not the opposition (no matter how "obstructionist" they may be).  That's a well-founded assumption that serves as the basis for forty years of economic voting research.  While it is true partisans tend to have "selective attribution" (that is, when in the opposition they will tend to blame the government for policy failures and attribute policy successes to circumstance, and vice versa), the question is how much will failing to pass anything on health care demoralize the GOP base?  Because that's how the Democrats will achieve large gains in the midterms - by depressing Republican turnout in order to neutralize their inherent disadvantage with midterm electorates.

In that, I think it's fair to speculate failing to do anything on Obamacare after campaigning on it for four election cycles will enrage the base, especially considering that's already starting.  The fringe guys on talk radio will have their hissy fits and groups like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks will find primary challengers to GOP members they blame the most.  Theoretically, this would lead to two things:  (1) the challenger wins and the GOP is at a disadvantage in the general if the district is purple, or (2) the challenger loses and the GOP base stays home in the general.  My only issue is with (1), as my own research of the 2010 and 2012 elections does not really support the (logical) premise that the primary challenger should do worse than an incumbent in the general (of course, different context, right, right, blah, blah).

[KingintheNorth4]

The historic budget impasse in Illinois has finally ended. On Thursday, the Illinois House voted to override Governor Bruce Rauner's veto of the budget package, giving Illinois it's first budget in two years. Even with a budget in place, Illinois still has a $6.2 billion annual deficit and $14.7 billion in overdue bills. It'll be a long time before the state is out of the woods.

[The Wedge]

11 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

The historic budget impasse in Illinois has finally ended. On Thursday, the Illinois House voted to override Governor Bruce Rauner's veto of the budget package, giving Illinois it's first budget in two years. Even with a budget in place, Illinois still has a $6.2 billion annual deficit and $14.7 billion in overdue bills. It'll be a long time before the state is out of the woods.

As a neighbor of mine suggested, they could probably make up that shortfall and balance the budget by making fireworks legal and taxing the hell out of them.  Even though pyrotechnics beyond sparklers are illegal, the whole state sounded like a war zone this past weekend.  It was the sound of tax money being gathered by laughing Hoosiers and the multitude of fireworks stands just across the border.

Celebrating our nation with loud noises, missing fingers, and scared dogs should at least provide some tax revenue, right?

 

[mormont]

2 hours ago, Fez said:

When it comes to sheer politicking, there is nothing special or unique about either party.

I'm an outsider, of course. But it's been my impression, over the last 20 years or so, that this is not true. There appears to be a default expectation on the Democrats to be the grown-up in the room: to behave better, to compromise more, to use calmer rhetoric.

I might be wrong about that, and to be clear, I support and would applaud obstructionism against this horrible, incompetent and corrupt administration. I think it's the right thing, the only thing, to do. But I do think it's important not to assume that it'll work out just the same for the Dems as it did for the Republicans. Be prepared for the possibility that it doesn't.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Nah.  Trump's speech got a great reception.  And literally less than 2 seconds after that clip ended the Polish first lady was shaking POTUS's hand.  Just selective editing for the credulous.

From a crowd bused in by an authoritarian regime. That's not a good look in my opinion. And that said, Trump is deeply unpopular in Europe and across the world. For example, a recent Pew poll found that only 11% of Germans think that Trump will do the right thing in international affairs, compared to 86% for Obama. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm an outsider, of course. But it's been my impression, over the last 20 years or so, that this is not true. There appears to be a default expectation on the Democrats to be the grown-up in the room: to behave better, to compromise more, to use calmer rhetoric.

True, but that's only part of the equation. Another important part is that Democratic voters are much more likely to punish their elected officials. 

[ding-fries-are-done]

16 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm an outsider, of course. But it's been my impression, over the last 20 years or so, that this is not true. There appears to be a default expectation on the Democrats to be the grown-up in the room: to behave better, to compromise more, to use calmer rhetoric.

I might be wrong about that, and to be clear, I support and would applaud obstructionism against this horrible, incompetent and corrupt administration. I think it's the right thing, the only thing, to do. But I do think it's important not to assume that it'll work out just the same for the Dems as it did for the Republicans. Be prepared for the possibility that it doesn't.

 

While the Dems might have been the grown up in the room in the past, they certainly are not any more.  

Ever since Trump was elected to the Presidency the Dems have been crying and throwing tantrums like toddlers.  

There are so many examples it's not even funny.  From CNN's constant Russia Russia Russia to violent protestors wearing masks to Facebook pages like Occupy Democrats consistently posted hypocritical memes and the members of its party calling anyone who just disagrees with a subject racist, or a bigot or any of the other words and phrases they use to debate  

It actually makes me wonder if the Dems will ever win any election on every level that is in a contested district or state.  I mean seriously the Dems have lost every contested election since Trump was elected.  The GOP is 4-0 since November.  

[all swedes are racist]

21 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm an outsider, of course. But it's been my impression, over the last 20 years or so, that this is not true. There appears to be a default expectation on the Democrats to be the grown-up in the room: to behave better, to compromise more, to use calmer rhetoric.

I might be wrong about that, and to be clear, I support and would applaud obstructionism against this horrible, incompetent and corrupt administration. I think it's the right thing, the only thing, to do. But I do think it's important not to assume that it'll work out just the same for the Dems as it did for the Republicans. Be prepared for the possibility that it doesn't.

 

i think that is because that is what the party leadership and pundits expect, and so that is what you hear... i have little reason to believe sacrificing results for civility would turn off the actually voters/base 

[Fez]

45 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

The historic budget impasse in Illinois has finally ended. On Thursday, the Illinois House voted to override Governor Bruce Rauner's veto of the budget package, giving Illinois it's first budget in two years. Even with a budget in place, Illinois still has a $6.2 billion annual deficit and $14.7 billion in overdue bills. It'll be a long time before the state is out of the woods.

You know things are bad when you can get a decent chunk of Republican state legislators to vote in favor of tax increases (see also: Kansas)

23 minutes ago, mormont said:

I'm an outsider, of course. But it's been my impression, over the last 20 years or so, that this is not true. There appears to be a default expectation on the Democrats to be the grown-up in the room: to behave better, to compromise more, to use calmer rhetoric.

I might be wrong about that, and to be clear, I support and would applaud obstructionism against this horrible, incompetent and corrupt administration. I think it's the right thing, the only thing, to do. But I do think it's important not to assume that it'll work out just the same for the Dems as it did for the Republicans. Be prepared for the possibility that it doesn't.

That "default expectation" is the rare time I'd say there is a media bubble of sorts. Of course more left-leaning folks see Democrats as the grown-up party and Republicans as a giant temper-tantrum, but right-leaning folks would say Democrats are naive, children and Republicans are the grown-ups who actually understand the world.

The parties are very different on policy, but in terms of politics they have access to all the same tricks. Its just a question of knowing how to use them. In this case, because of how much the base hates Trump, its easy for Democrats to obstruct and keep them happy. And while more moderate and swingy voters may want "bipartisanship," they are also less likely to hold that view of "Democrats=grown-ups" and less likely to be politically informed, and therefore more likely to turn on the incumbent if things are bad in their view.

 

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

True, but that's only part of the equation. Another important part is that Democratic voters are much more likely to punish their elected officials. 

Really? I'd say its the exact opposite. Incumbent Democrats almost never face competitive primaries, whereas incumbent Republicans do quite regularly.

[denstorebog]

3 minutes ago, ding-fries-are-done said:

While the Dems might have been the grown up in the room in the past, they certainly are not any more.  

Ever since Trump was elected to the Presidency the Dems have been crying and throwing tantrums like toddlers.  

There are so many examples it's not even funny.  From CNN's constant Russia Russia Russia to violent protestors wearing masks to Facebook pages like Occupy Democrats consistently posted hypocritical memes and the members of its party calling anyone who just disagrees with a subject racist, or a bigot or any of the other words and phrases they use to debate  

It actually makes me wonder if the Dems will ever win any election on every level that is in a contested district or state.  I mean seriously the Dems have lost every contested election since Trump was elected.  The GOP is 4-0 since November.  

I'm not sure why you want to insult your own intelligence with this last statement but please don't insult ours. The GOP have barely managed the 4-0 that should have been surefire victories. Every election has shown a clear movement to the left. Everyone knows this, everyone can see the numbers and deduce what it will mean in the long run when Dems overperform like this. Even the GOP lawmakers who are in trouble next year understand the simple math involved, so I wonder why you choose not to.

[Altherion]

10 minutes ago, ding-fries-are-done said:

It actually makes me wonder if the Dems will ever win any election on every level that is in a contested district or state.

The US political system is cyclical. People were saying more or less the same thing about the Republicans after their colossal defeat in 2008, but it only took them 2 years to win back the House, 6 years to win back the Senate and 8 years to regain the Presidency. The Democrats will almost certainly be back within the same time frame or perhaps even sooner -- especially if the Republicans fail to get anything notable done (as they have so far).