Maltaran

UK Politics - summer edition

165 posts in this topic

On 19.10.2017 at 8:41 PM, Werthead said:

Once Brexit is concluded, I suspect we'll see a lot of the same ultra-free-market-espousing hardcore Tories turning their full firepower on the NHS. This has always been their long-term goal: get out from Europe, get rid of the NHS, reduce the state to the size of a small pea (with them firmly inside it, of course) and retire to the boards of the newly set-up health companies.

On a logical level is there any other outcome? Assuming Brexit proceeds, and a Norway like solution (single market access without a say on the matter, with free movement of people) is not sellable to the Brexiteers, that would mean you would lose access to the single market, most of the existing free trade agreements will go out of the window, and WTO trading is not anywhere near an equivalent solution, and with a loss of banking passporting rights the City of London will take a hit (and thus the UKs main industry/tax source), it somehow looks like the NHS (like many other public services) simply looks somewhat unaffordable. Not to mention increased costs of living due to inflation.

And I somewhat doubt there will be much left after a hard brexit for a Labour goverment to salvage.

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4 hours ago, Notone said:

On a logical level is there any other outcome? Assuming Brexit proceeds, and a Norway like solution (single market access without a say on the matter, with free movement of people) is not sellable to the Brexiteers, that would mean you would lose access to the single market, most of the existing free trade agreements will go out of the window, and WTO trading is not anywhere near an equivalent solution, and with a loss of banking passporting rights the City of London will take a hit (and thus the UKs main industry/tax source), it somehow looks like the NHS (like many other public services) simply looks somewhat unaffordable. Not to mention increased costs of living due to inflation.

And I somewhat doubt there will be much left after a hard brexit for a Labour goverment to salvage.

Exactly. The strategic vagueness from Labour has been surprisingly effective but I think they need to be stronger in opposing a hard Brexit and a crash-out and insisting that we get a better deal, even if that means stumping up more cash.

I'm surprised that no-one has floated the idea that Britain will simply leave the EU at the end of the current fiscal period. Given the two-year transition period, we're in that bracket anyway (and would be going into the next one) and it would be the easiest solution. Britain pays what it would have done anyway, everyone has more time to work out these deals and solutions, Brussels knows what money they'll have available for the following period, Britain and the RoI have more time to hammer out a border arrangement and we could move to trade talks immediately. Splitting hairs and causing political and economic chaos for the sake of leaving 22 months sooner or later seems moronic.

Edited by Werthead

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Because no-one is interested in finding an actual solution.

 

This is modern politics, compromise is so last century, only brinkmanship is allowed these days!

Edited by Which Tyler

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38 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I'm surprised that no-one has floated the idea that Britain will simply leave the EU at the end of the current fiscal period. Given the two-year transition period, we're in that bracket anyway (and would be going into the next one) and it would be the easiest solution. Britain pays what it would have done anyway, everyone has more time to work out these deals and solutions, Brussels knows what money they'll have available for the following period, Britain and the RoI have more time to hammer out a border arrangement and we could move to trade talks immediately. Splitting hairs and causing political and economic chaos for the sake of leaving 22 months sooner or later seems moronic.

I think the rush towards leaving might be driven by some of the Brexiteers being paranoid that the country might come to its senses and decide not to leave after all and that risk will increase over time - and even if that doesn't happen they're also afraid that if the Tory minority government collapses and we have another election then Labour will be in charge of deciding the terms of Brexit and might go for something with stronger links with Europe than they'd like.

That said, if they were really worried about Brexit collapsing then it would make sense for them to be more willing to compromise rather than taking a hard-line given that they can't be sure of a Parliamentary majority backing that, but as with so many things I don't think they've really thought things through.

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13 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I don't think they've really thought things through.

You think? :)

Future historians are going to have a field day trying to make sense of this period in British political history.

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