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This is based on assumptions that don’t consider the stark reality that Israel’s actions have created willing and able replacements. Regardless, I’m not sure how a six week ceasefire as opposed to Israel’s explicitly intended next action leads to more dead Hamas. They can’t force them, no, but they have the practical means to apply pressure. Hence, leverage.

A couple of obituaries for Paul Auster, and then a link to a "Booktube" YouTube video reaction to his death. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/01/1212212960/paul-auster-dead https://www.wnct.com/news/national/paul-auster-filmmaker-and-author-known-for-new-york-trilogy-dies-at-77/

The proposal will lead to the destruction of Hamas as an organization. Under the current proposal on the table now, the Hamas leadership currently outside of Gaza will live on, but be in charge of nothing. Israel's stated goal is to destroy Hamas, which they will be able to complete much more easily once they have all the hostages back. It will be trivial to flood all the tunnels, which they have already telegraphed that they want to do. After that, it will just be a matter of time for them to functionally eliminate Hamas from Gaza. They will have to essentially occupy Gaza indefinitely afterwards, which is something else they've stated that they will do. Sure, of course the US needs to work through Egypt and Qatar, because we don't have a direct line of communication with Hamas. But I don't think either Egypt or Qatar has meaningful leverage that they can apply to Hamas to force them to accept the current agreement that is being proposed.

I don’t get what’s VERY different here. The first statement is what some people think, by their own definitions. The whole problem is the lack of clear definitions. It’s not that it’s confusing, it’s that most of these arguments boil down to someone saying “trans women are women” (knowing full well by their own definition, they are) and someone else saying “no they aren’t” (knowing full well by their own definition, they aren’t). It’s pointless and doesn’t get us anywhere.

I don’t understand why you think the proposal will lead to the Hamas leadership’s destruction. Egypt’s cooperation is critical to actually delivering the aid such an agreement would provide. Hamas may only care about that for selfish reasons, sure, but these aren’t hypotheticals I’m pulling out of my ass. There are very obvious and realpolitik reasons the state department is engaging with Egypt and Qatar as proxies.

Absolutely. I was just sticking to direct military conflict but yes. There's also the heinous amount of destruction caused by economic exploitation by Western companies that aren't a result of any official government policy but could be curtailed by it if Western governments had the will for it.

Hey now, we're incredibly keen on doing it now too!

I'm not missing your point. I get that you're viewing a medical report as a good excuse to change unrelated policies. I'm questioning why you think this is a good thing and questioning the people who previously said that the Cass report was apolitical. In particular, I'm pointing out that the person who brought this up specifically stated that the Cass report impacted the NHS in some good way, even though nothing in the Cass report related to the changes being brought, and appeared to consider that a win. That has nothing to do with this at all, and you know it. In particular these specific trans individuals are wanting to be treated as women and considered women biologically and gender-wise. The people who are wanting something else are the ones who are specifically requesting that they are only with people who have the biological sex at birth that they want. The difference is that these people say that there can never, ever be a person who changes their biological sex and that a trans woman is not a 'true' woman. That's a VERY different viewpoint than talking about what gender means, what sex means, about queerness or anything like that. And that's fine, but let's not think this is some language issue and it's all very confusing.

It doesn’t but it was super keen on funding and installing US-friendly military dictatorships all over the place not that long ago.

The difference is that some people would say it's perfectly possible to treat someone as the gender in which they identify whilst also recognising that biological sex exists.

Meh. Even as someone who because of my background really fucking hates Russia I'd suggest that this is largely dependent on where you live. Sure, Russia is willing to invade European nations directly, while, say, America typically doesn't do that to its central and south american neighbours but ask... well, quite a lot of the middle east who they think is more dangerous.

You are missing the point I am making. I am not saying the Cass report directly caused the new changes within the NHS, but indirectly, by highlighting the approach to gender within the NHS over the past few years. It has also helped to remove many of the barriers to talking about the topic, and exposed some of the poor thinking in general on the topic. This has led to the NHS re-examining some of it's other policies and maybe taking a wider, I'd say more sensible, view as to what actions they should take.

Yeah, I edited my post to address that. If Israel's proposal included a term that allowed leadership to exit Gaza safely in return for the hostages, that would be something, although everything I've read suggests Sinwar has no interest in leaving and would prefer to be become a martyr. But if that's not in the proposal, it's meaningless if they move their HQ to Egypt if Israel just destroys Hamas after they get all their hostages back.

OH NO, not the HYPOCRISY I'm sure that'll make them hurt, pointing out that they're HYPOCRITS OOOOOOH NOOOOOOO You fail to understand; their viewpoint is 100% consistent. They wish to have the absolute right to say whatever they want and suffer absolutely no ill effect in any part of their life. They want others to not be able to say anything that they don't like and be able to punish them for this as much as they possibly can. What matters is who is saying it, not what is being said.

It probably does hurt Biden some. But it would likely hurt him worse to come out against the crackdowns. Lots of pro-Israel suburbanites out there, and they vote at much higher rates than young people. Though on the other hand, they vote Democratic at lower rates. Electorally, Biden doesn't have any great options here. This is a wedge issue for Democrats.

…what I just said in Qatar’s case. Allowing their leadership to reside there. That’s just about as crucial leverage as you can get.

What leverage does Egypt and Qatar have that they are applying on Hamas? ETA: I don't see a new HQ as meaningful leverage when the proposed agreement leads to their destruction.

So you're in favor of reports on issues of medical malfeasance making changes to general policies that have nothing to do with that medical malfeasance? That's how you want to address policy issues - by doing studies on something unrelated and then making a decision? And this is what you want from your democratically elected representatives? I wonder how angry you'd be if someone did a study on the mistreatment of minors in the immigration system and used that to reduce the restrictions on immigration in general.

Again, the leverage is via the intermediaries, namely Egypt and Qatar. Case in point, there is speculation Hamas leadership may be shopping for new headquarters due to frustration with Qatar’s pressure. Again, my issue is with how you present your arguments as authoritative. Of course it’s not backed up by facts. That’s my problem, and you asked.

Also noteworthy that Kazakhstan's 2022 GDP was 40% higher than Ukraine's. Pretty impressive considering that the Kazakhs have half the population. Obviously their GDP is still well behind Russia, but Kazakhstan's ability to defend itself could (and likely will) increase dramatically in the next few years.

Some interesting tidbits about Jory Cassel... Jory was Ned's Captain of Guards for eight years. He was very good natured with the children, separating Sansa and Arya once when they had a snow fight, had chased Bran across the roofs of Winterfell many times, and went hunting with Jon, Robb, and Theon. He was like family. Jory's father died fighting alongside Eddard at the tower of joy. Jory joins Robert's hunt for boar before the king departs Winterfell for the south. It is my belief that hunting for boar and being gored by a boar are parallels of Lyanna. Jaime Lannister was squire to Sumner Crakehall for four years. The Crakehall sigil is a striped boar. When Ned and his men faced Jaime Lannister and his guard it was 3 guardsmen against 20. Ned reminded Jaime that if he is killed that Catelyn would kill Tyrion. Jaime instructs his men not to kill Ned. The whole scene seems to be an echo that may have influenced Ned's fever dream where he and his men met the three Kingsguard. King Robert's death in his bed of blood is likely a repeat of Lyanna's bed of blood. The three Kingsguard were positioned on the way to the royal apartments in Maegor's holdfast.

That’s my impression as well but wanted an insider’s perspective.

It's even harder to convey how weird it is to think that a person who has been medically diagnosed with gender dysphoria, who then gets treatment and surgery to effectively change their biological sex, who identifies directly with exactly one of the two sexes and wants to be given the same considerations as any other person of that sex is somehow confusing to people who think that they want...something different. I mean, this doesn't seem like a 'ridiculous language game'. This is a person that wanted to change from one sex to the other. This doesn't require wide agreement on gender or spectrums or anything else; this is literally someone needing, medically, to go from one sex to the other. I do agree that you appear to be willfully attempting to misunderstand the other side quite heavily and mischaracterize that viewpoint willfully.

What you are missing is that the Cas report has meant that a sensible discussion on the topic can happen out in the open without malicious accusations of ‘transphobia’. The report itself exposed some of the poorly thought out policies in place regarding gender, which has led to other poorly thought out policies to fixed as well. Not sure it’s hard to understand.

It does hurt him. I know the whole spiel will be about how that age demographic doesn't vote much, but this does nothing to draw anyone out and instead could make them hate him more. All this does is push the country further into a far right hell scape.