(Spoilers) The History of the Westerlands

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Posted 01 June 2014 - 05:36 PM

Hi been reading for a while, never posted before.

This is all circumstantial evidence, but I'm interested to see everyone's views and opinions on this..

So after reading numerous Petyr Baelish theories I have concluded that we all seem to agree on Littlefinger being a major player of the game, he thrives on chaos, is a keen manipulator, one of the most dangerous players, he refers to everyone as pieces and players, he is truly playing a long game and I am theorizing he has a good motive!

What is his true agenda? His true purpose? This is what everyone struggles to agree upon, what does he actually want?

"Everything" He says ... And for once, I believe him!

And here's a theory as to WHY...

Petyr Baelish is a descendant of House Reyne! Yes that's right, the extinct house from Castamere!

Information and evidence on House Baelish and House Reyne is far and few between! With hardly any names and only a small description of both house histories i think there is more than meets the eye here..

Now let me start with how Petyr's described "western traits" which I find help support this theory

- Petyrs eyes are described as Grey/Green.. (Green eyes being a dominant Lannister/ Westerlands traits! Very likely in Reynes/Lannister history merged thus sharing these traits)

- Petyrs name shares the famous Western Tyr .. An interesting spelling and name choice for Petyr! Tyr pops up alot on Lannister and Western Houses family trees..

Now some dates I have found (from the wiki, I'm hoping the AWOIAF will bring some more evidence to back this up) which could support this theory:

- Baelish House discovered 259AC

- Petyr Baelish Born 268AC

- House Reyne died out 260AC +/-

-War of Ninepenny Kings 259AC +/-

Petyr Baelish's father (a hedge knight) became associated with Hoster Tully during War of Ninepenny Kings (resulting in Petyr being fostered there some years later)

-No mention or clues of Petyr's mother or any mention of an individual member of House Reyne!

(There is one Ellyn Tarbeck, who seems to be the only participant from the Reyne/Tarbeck rebellion who has been first named .. On the wiki page she is 'presumed dead'.

A descendant of Tarbeck could fit this theory also but I would think the Reynes of Castermere song being such an infamous and cruel reminder of the fate of House Reyne would inspire Petyrs revenge and ambition! And his ultimate goal to restore his rightful family name by bringing down the Lannister's/Starks/Tullys (every noble house who has spurned Petyr, him or his descendants) I feel his true aim is to re-store the Reynes to their former glory and then some by eventually seating himself (or future heir) on the throne!

House Baelish wasn't discovered in 259AC, the first mention we have on House Baelish occured in 260/261AC during the War of the Ninepenny Kings. House Baelish had been in Westeros for quite some time before that.

There are more names with Tyr in them. Lannisters don't have the alone right for such name parts.

Ellyn Tarbeck (Reyne/Lannister) is most certainly dead, we know thanks to the reading.

[edd tollett:(]

I don't think the 'tyr thing means anything either but couldn't a female desendent have married a Baelish?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I don't think the 'tyr thing means anything either but couldn't a female desendent have married a Baelish?

Ellyn Reyne/Tarbeck/Lannister herself was too old to have been Petyr's mother. Besides, she had been dead for years by the time he was born.

Ellyn had 2 daughters, Rohanne and Sarelle. These girls seem to have been born in or between 237AC and 241AC. Ellyn's son Tion was born in 242AC.

Rohanne married and had a son, who at the time of the deaths of all his relatives was 3 years old. The boy most likely died, but even if he survived, he would have been way too old to have been Petyr (having been born around 258AC, 10 years before Petry).

About Sarelle, nothing is known further. But in 268AC she would have been about 30 years old, way too old for a first child, IMO, accordign to Westerosi standards.

[edd tollett:(]

I guess Sarelle could be his grandmother but probably not I just thought it was an interesting theory especially with all this new info

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Having looked over the notes from the reading again, it seems like we have this for Tywin and his siblings and those closely involved:

235AC - Tytos married Jeyne Marbrant

236/237AC - Tytos is seduced by recently widowed Ellyn Reyne, but can't perform. Tytos tells Jeyne, who tells Gerion, who married Ellyn off to Lord Tarbeck

237-241AC - Ellyn's daughters by Lord Tarbeck are born

242AC - Tywin Lannister is born to Tytos and Jeyne. Tion Tarbeck is born to Ellyn and her husband

244/245AC - Kevan Lannister is born

245/246AC - Genna Lannister is born

247-254AC - Tygett Lannister is born

255AC - Gerion Lannister is born.

With an age difference between Tywin and Gerion (eldest and youngest) of 13 years, that kind of answers my questions about how Tywin's grandchildren were of an age with Gerions and Tygett's children.

I'm guessing there was simply a lot of time between Gerion's birth and Tygett's birth, since Tygett was old enough to help Tywin get rid of the Tarbecks and Reynes. Perhaps a situation like Tytos and Jason, who had 7/9 years between them? I mean, I doubt a 6 year old would have been taken along by Tywin, but a 13 year old easily could have squired for one of his older brothers.

But there is still a big gap between Tywin's kids and Tygett's kids, for example. Tywin's eldest were born in 266AC, Tygett's kid was born in 285AC That's a gap of 20 years. And for Kevan the same, Lancel was born in 283AC..

[Jaak]

My point was presicely what I said. Having an emergency exit in an underground lair seems basic to me and people who have experience with mining would know to make one. Since this is a defensive structure it would make sense to have a secret esacpe route just like Maegor's Holdfast has and even a pisspot nowhere holdfast did in the Riverlands. If the exit was above the water table it wouldn't flood.

But the Reynes obviously did not plan for flooding. They would not have been so confident and arrogant - even if they had "secret" emergency exits, 300 women and children emerging under noses of thousands of Lannister soldiers would have been spotted and caught on ground.

Also, the Reyne mines had to be habitable and safe at all normal weather and historic floods. Otherwise the Reynes would not have furnished them to be 9/10 of their residence. What Reynes did not plan for was the water level which Tywin was able to achieve with his dams (probably plural, I´d explain if someone is interested). If the water level was completely unexpected for Reynes then it is possible that all their emergency exits were also under the Tywin flood level.

[Veltigar]

But the Reynes obviously did not plan for flooding. They would not have been so confident and arrogant - even if they had "secret" emergency exits, 300 women and children emerging under noses of thousands of Lannister soldiers would have been spotted and caught on ground.

Also, the Reyne mines had to be habitable and safe at all normal weather and historic floods. Otherwise the Reynes would not have furnished them to be 9/10 of their residence. What Reynes did not plan for was the water level which Tywin was able to achieve with his dams (probably plural, I´d explain if someone is interested). If the water level was completely unexpected for Reynes then it is possible that all their emergency exits were also under the Tywin flood level.

Please explain further, this is fascinating stuff.

[Lord Varys]

There may have indeed be secret exists, but we should first keep in mind that at least the better known of these exists may have been known to the Lannisters, due to heavily inter-breeding between Lannisters and Reynes during the last centuries, as well as due to the fact that various Lannisters - including in the very recent past - served as cupbearers, pages, and squires at Castamere.

Much more importantly, if those mines very actually deep mines, then it would have taken them quite a lot of time to get out there in time. I guess the Reynes felt this secure because they were deep beneath the earth.

For instance, I imagine that it would have been quite difficult to climb a steep (winding) stair if a lot of water is coming down on you very fast...

And secret escape routes tend to small and narrow, to conceal them better, so the first thing everyone would have thought when the water came in was most likely to go for the nearest, widest exit.

I don't imagine many secret exits, since mines tend to go mostly down, so there should really be only a few small gates in close vicinity to the main entrance. And I'm pretty sure Tywin had those regions covered, and would have find and killed anyone who came out there...

If somebody came out alive, my guess is there chances to go successfully undercover and disappear from the Westerlands were zero.

[edd tollett:(]

What's the name of the river? Where is house reyne exactly?

[Veltigar]

What's the name of the river? Where is house reyne exactly?

It was a lake I think. The name Castamere seems to indicate that.

[Jaak]

A cave is safe and comfortable if it´s dry and above water table, right?

Water table is not quite constant naturally - it fluctuates with rains of Castamere. Castamere also has a natural lake and used to have it, otherwise it would not have been named after the mere.

So, if the rock under Castamere was permeable then Reynes could not have mined beneath the water table - water would have seeped in.

If the rock was not very permeable then Reynes could have mined below water table and bailed/pumped out the small amount of water that did seep in - but then they also needed thresholds high enough to keep waters of Castamere out, because it would have been a lot of work to pump out the mines every time Castamere flooded over the thresholds. Also if there were chambers that flooded during natural high floods but naturally drained at low water, then Reynes could have mined gold from these chambers when the waters were low, but evacuated them at each flood. But these chambers would then not have been good to furnish for living.

So, I imagine that Castamere castle was on a relatively low rise of ground. The hilltop and also the chambers for living would have been above normal floods, but nowhere as lofty as Casterly Rock. Thus no chambers in upper parts of a high mountain, which Tywin would have been unable to flood.

It might have been possible that upper parts of a hill did not contain gold, so no reason to mine them, but even then it would have been logical to build surface houses on top of the hill, and underground shortcut entrance between mine and upper castle. This is why I assume the rise was not high.

Now, there was Castamere lake. If Tywin simply dammed the river downstream from the lake, then the river water would have collected in the sizable area of the lake. It would then have risen slowly, and the Reynes would have spent long time in their living rooms first ankle deep in water then in knee deep... it would have taken time for the ordinary flow of the river to fill lake Castamere over their heads and ceilings. Reynes would have had time to try to break out by existing and newly cut exits.

But my advice to Tywin: dam the river above the lake. The water would then collect in the new reservoir, to a level above the Castamere mines - while the level of Castamere would actually fall, but not below the natural outlet level. So the Reynes would not be warned. Then build the second dam at the outlet of Castamere. Castamere would start rising, but only slowly without the inflow of the main river (still blocked by the upper dam) so it would not yet the mines and tip off the Reynes.

And when the lower dam is ready, breach the upper dam. The water levels between upper reservoir and Castamere would suddenly equalize and the mines would be rapidly flooded, before Reynes can sally.

Could it have been what Tywin did?

[Ibbison from Ibben]

If you have a large underground complex, any secret exit would of course have to be high in the structure, just to be able to reach the surface and be an exit. As the complex floods, the water would fill the lower levels first, giving anyone in the upper levels time to escape.

On the other hand, as the complex fills with water, all that air has to go somewhere - out the surface exits - making it possible for the attackers to spot any secret exits they had failed to discover yet.

[HexMachina]

So what material wasnt read from.the Westerlands section then I wonder? Depends how far the history goes but I would count only Tywin's marriage and term as Hand of the King still to go, unless they include the marriage to Cersei in there. Sounds like he rrad nearly the entire chapter!

(I'm assuming that Roberts Rebellion would.be in a different chapter btw)

[Jaak]

If you have a large underground complex, any secret exit would of course have to be high in the structure, just to be able to reach the surface and be an exit.

Not of course. You´d like to have an exit where seepage water would naturally flow out of. And in that casem you´d like your drain to be as low and as close to the natural water level outside as practical, in order to have more space for a drainable underground complex that can be drained rather than bailed or pumped out.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

What's the name of the river? Where is house reyne exactly?

I believe it is stated in the books once that Castamere is located closely to the Crag. I don't think we know the name of the actual river.

[The hairy bear]

It seems to me like Tywin is very effective at dishing out punishment, but I think his military genius is a little overstated. He mostly had the element of surprise and shock when crushing the rebellion, and since then he didn't really do anything till the Wo5K, iirc.

Tywin made his reputation fighting in the war of the ninepenny kings. Kevan was squiring for the Red Lion, so I guess that Tywin had his own command and proved himself as a got strategist.

[edd tollett:(]

I believe it is stated in the books once that Castamere is located closely to the Crag. I don't think we know the name of the actual river.

Thanks

[Fat Mac]

Having looked over the notes from the reading again, it seems like we have this for Tywin and his siblings and those closely involved:

235AC - Tytos married Jeyne Marbrant

236/237AC - Tytos is seduced by recently widowed Ellyn Reyne, but can't perform. Tytos tells Jeyne, who tells Gerion, who married Ellyn off to Lord Tarbeck

237-241AC - Ellyn's daughters by Lord Tarbeck are born

242AC - Tywin Lannister is born to Tytos and Jeyne. Tion Tarbeck is born to Ellyn and her husband

244/245AC - Kevan Lannister is born

245/246AC - Genna Lannister is born

247-254AC - Tygett Lannister is born

255AC - Gerion Lannister is born.

With an age difference between Tywin and Gerion (eldest and youngest) of 13 years, that kind of answers my questions about how Tywin's grandchildren were of an age with Gerions and Tygett's children.

I'm guessing there was simply a lot of time between Gerion's birth and Tygett's birth, since Tygett was old enough to help Tywin get rid of the Tarbecks and Reynes. Perhaps a situation like Tytos and Jason, who had 7/9 years between them? I mean, I doubt a 6 year old would have been taken along by Tywin, but a 13 year old easily could have squired for one of his older brothers.

But there is still a big gap between Tywin's kids and Tygett's kids, for example. Tywin's eldest were born in 266AC, Tygett's kid was born in 285AC That's a gap of 20 years. And for Kevan the same, Lancel was born in 283AC..

There must of been no pressure for them to marry. The eldest son was married, as was the daughter, and those seem to be the two most important people politically as far as marriage goes. Kevan and Tygett were apparently both good swordsman so I wouldn't doubt that's what they spent most of their time doing. Plus, Kevans wife being of a knightly House makes me think he married for love.

[edd tollett:(]

So role Spicer just got a huge water filled tomb nice!

A guess the tile is the important thing. I wonder if that will lead to anything?

[RumHam]

Well all he has to do is open the doors, no? I guess it would probably smell terrible inside but still, free gold.