College Football- Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail 2014

[Kalbear]

Posting rankings each week is also stupid. They need to get rid of that. It needlessly shoehorns them into a bad position.

how does it shoehorn them? Exactly one team from their first top 4 is in this one. None of the sec teams to start with are there. 3 of the 4 teams that are in are well agreed upon by basically everyone. And they have always stated that head to head is useful but not the sole thing they'll look at.

[sperry]

how does it shoehorn them? Exactly one team from their first top 4 is in this one. None of the sec teams to start with are there. 3 of the 4 teams that are in are well agreed upon by basically everyone. And they have always stated that head to head is useful but not the sole thing they'll look at.

Shoehorn is the wrong word. It gives them every opportunity to look inconsistent, and for essentially no gain other than some $$$ for ESPN.

[Kalbear]

I guess I've not seen a whole lot of inconsistency. All of their results - save the one today - have been not only explainable, but welcome.

They value wins over good teams. They value dominance over merely skating by. They value a strong OOC schedule. And they value championships.

They are willing to forgive losses to good teams - and care more about a loss to a good team than a win over a meh team. They don't care as much about being undefeated.

If you look at it that way, everything is pretty explainable.

Alabama: dominant wins over multiple teams and one of the best wins, very hard schedule, respectable OOC, loss to a ranked team.

Oregon: Dominant wins over multiple teams, hard schedule, good OOC, loss to a top 10 team

TCU: dominant wins over multiple teams, not as hard schedule, good OOC (that Minnesota win looks better and better), loss to a top 10 team

FSU: wins over multiple teams. Few dominant wins. Not as hard schedule. Okay OOC (they really tried hard, but Notre Dame looks worse and worse).

Ohio State: dominant wins over multiple teams. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team, but is understandable given QB injury

Baylor: dominant wins over multiple teams. Easy schedule. Completely weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team with no injury issue.

Arizona: wins over multiple good teams, including #2. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Losses are to one unranked team and one ranked team.

Really, it's not that bad to explain precisely where every team goes. The only thing I'm confused about is why they moved TCU up now. My guess is that FSU and TCU were neck and neck, and FSU's close win vs. Florida wasn't as compelling as TCU's beatdown of a rising Texas team.

[Howdyphillip]

I guess I've not seen a whole lot of inconsistency. All of their results - save the one today - have been not only explainable, but welcome.

They value wins over good teams. They value dominance over merely skating by. They value a strong OOC schedule. And they value championships.

They are willing to forgive losses to good teams - and care more about a loss to a good team than a win over a meh team. They don't care as much about being undefeated.

If you look at it that way, everything is pretty explainable.

Alabama: dominant wins over multiple teams and one of the best wins, very hard schedule, respectable OOC, loss to a ranked team.

Oregon: Dominant wins over multiple teams, hard schedule, good OOC, loss to a top 10 team

TCU: dominant wins over multiple teams, not as hard schedule, good OOC (that Minnesota win looks better and better), loss to a top 10 team

FSU: wins over multiple teams. Few dominant wins. Not as hard schedule. Okay OOC (they really tried hard, but Notre Dame looks worse and worse).

Ohio State: dominant wins over multiple teams. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team, but is understandable given QB injury

Baylor: dominant wins over multiple teams. Easy schedule. Completely weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team with no injury issue.

Arizona: wins over multiple good teams, including #2. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Losses are to one unranked team and one ranked team.

Really, it's not that bad to explain precisely where every team goes. The only thing I'm confused about is why they moved TCU up now. My guess is that FSU and TCU were neck and neck, and FSU's close win vs. Florida wasn't as compelling as TCU's beatdown of a rising Texas team.

Yup... Sounds like you found the blackboard...

If TCU has "looked" better than Baylor this year, can you explain how it is that they have a higher rated offense and a higher rated defense? There is only one game left for them, and unless they have a complete meltdown against KState, they will finish the year off substantially better that TCU in all measurable stats.

Do you really think that Minnesota made that much of a difference? We are talking about 8-4 Golden Gophers right?

[Kalbear]

If TCU has "looked" better than Baylor this year, can you explain how it is that they have a higher rated offense and a higher rated defense?

They've played a really horrible schedule. Like really, really bad. It's quite easy to explain. A good OOC game where they were dominant is much better than anything Baylor has, especially since that Minnesota team was a game away from playing in their championship.

Baylor has nothing. And has a worse loss.

[Howdyphillip]

They've played a really horrible schedule. Like really, really bad. It's quite easy to explain. A good OOC game where they were dominant is much better than anything Baylor has, especially since that Minnesota team was a game away from playing in their championship.

Baylor has nothing. And has a worse loss.

Oh sure... The daunting schedule of Samford, SMU, and Minnesota is leaps and bounds harder than SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo.

That should clearly be more important than actually winning a football game in a head to head matchup, having a better rated offense, and a better rated defense. Those three spots are clearly justified because of the mighty Golden Golphers.

I don't know why I am even arguing this because the entire playoff system is a joke anyways.

[lokisnow]

So winning football games comes down to mostly luck? Spoken like a true Mizzu fan! :-p

Yup. When national championships are on the line, the team playing mizzou gets that rare fifth down to be allowed to win. It's luck more than anything. Sometimes you catch the breaks sometimes you don't but you want to be in position to catch them.

In other words you don't go all in preflop when you're winning lots of small pots and on track to hit the winners table if youre patient enough.

[Lukey]

Can someone explain to me why it is that Baylor is 3 places lower than TCU with the same record as them after beating them in a head to head matchup ?

I'm going with the Monkeys throwing darts at a blackboard theory. These "playoffs" are the biggest sham in sports.

TCU should have won that game. Was really a fluke that Baylor pulled it out.

My predictions:

Alabama 34 Missouri 17

Florida State 35 Georgia Tech 24

Ohio State 28 Wisconsin 27

Oregon 56 Arizona 20

Playoff

Alabama 24 TCU 20

Florida State 38 Oregon 37

Alabama 28 Florida State 20

[Maithanet]

I guess I can see the logic of moving TCU up to #3, and based on their schedules thus far, it makes sense to have TCU ahead of Baylor. The real question is whether that will still be true if Baylor beats KSU.

FSU still doesn't need to worry though, because they finally get an actually respectable opponent this week in GT, who are coming off an upset win @ Georgia. If they can win that game, they'll still have the weakest schedule of the four playoff teams, but not embarrassingly so.

[Rhom]

Mike Greenberg had a great point on Mike and Mike about FSU this morning.

Last week, FSU was 3, Miss St 4, and TCU 5. This week, TCU leaped FSU. Miss St dropped out because they lost to Ole MIss.

So the FSU/TCU relationship has nothing to do with the Miss St outcome. If Miss St had not lost, is the committee essentially saying that FSU would have dropped out of the polls this week? A Miss St that does not lose moves up to three and we already see that the committee believes that TCU is better than FSU; so therefore it stands to reason that absent a Miss St loss, the undefeated defending champs would be on the outside looking in.

Bizarre.

[Corvinus85]

TCU should have won that game. Was really a fluke that Baylor pulled it out.

Playoff qualifications should be objectively decided based on results, not on should haves/could haves.

Baylor beat TCU. If Baylor beats K. State, they win the Big12. There is no reason why TCU should be admitted in the playoff ahead of Baylor, I don't care how good they are perceived to be.

[Kalbear]

There are many reasons tcu should be ahead of Baylor.

Strength of schedule

Better ooc games

Better games against the same opponents

Better loss

You might not agree with those reasons, but they exist.

[Mexal]

There are many reasons tcu should be ahead of Baylor.

Strength of schedule

Better ooc games

Better games against the same opponents

Better loss

You might not agree with those reasons, but they exist.

Yea, I don't. Not if Baylor wins over KSU and wins the Big 12. Head to head should matter.

And I don't see how TCU leap frogs FSU and how FSU would have dropped out of the rankings if Miss St didn't lose. That's just ridiculous. I don't care if they look great or not, they're the undefeated national champs. We see all the time, especially in power rankings and game picks, how humans believe things about teams that don't necessarily match up when they play each other. You can talk about FSU and how shitty they've played all year but the fact is, they find a way to win regardless of the situation, regardless of how bad they're playing and if they did play well for 60 minutes, they could beat any team in the top 4. I'm fine with TCU being the 4th seed but to leapfrog FSU, that's just stupid.

[sperry]

I guess I've not seen a whole lot of inconsistency. All of their results - save the one today - have been not only explainable, but welcome.

They value wins over good teams. They value dominance over merely skating by. They value a strong OOC schedule. And they value championships.

They are willing to forgive losses to good teams - and care more about a loss to a good team than a win over a meh team. They don't care as much about being undefeated.

If you look at it that way, everything is pretty explainable.

Alabama: dominant wins over multiple teams and one of the best wins, very hard schedule, respectable OOC, loss to a ranked team.

Oregon: Dominant wins over multiple teams, hard schedule, good OOC, loss to a top 10 team

TCU: dominant wins over multiple teams, not as hard schedule, good OOC (that Minnesota win looks better and better), loss to a top 10 team

FSU: wins over multiple teams. Few dominant wins. Not as hard schedule. Okay OOC (they really tried hard, but Notre Dame looks worse and worse).

Ohio State: dominant wins over multiple teams. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team, but is understandable given QB injury

Baylor: dominant wins over multiple teams. Easy schedule. Completely weak OOC. Loss to an unranked team with no injury issue.

Arizona: wins over multiple good teams, including #2. Not as hard schedule. Weak OOC. Losses are to one unranked team and one ranked team.

Really, it's not that bad to explain precisely where every team goes. The only thing I'm confused about is why they moved TCU up now. My guess is that FSU and TCU were neck and neck, and FSU's close win vs. Florida wasn't as compelling as TCU's beatdown of a rising Texas team.

Mississippi State's treatment didn't make a whole lot of sense, and I think the committee was saved from a MAJOR debacle when Ole Miss won that game.

[Ixodes]

In all honesty, can you call it a "play off" if you only include 4 teams? That's some false advertising right there. There isn't enough play to consider who is off. I think there should be a lawsuit that forces them to stop lying. Maybe "Top Four Slugfest," or "Best of the Best," or "Condi's Love Fest." Or, if we really want to be honest, "Fuck You, Conferences."

[Corvinus85]

Mississippi State's treatment didn't make a whole lot of sense, and I think the committee was saved from a MAJOR debacle when Ole Miss won that game.

Which is why I would love it if both Alabama and Oregon lost their championships. Have fun committee. :devil:

[Kalbear]

In all honesty, can you call it a "play off" if you only include 4 teams? That's some false advertising right there. There isn't enough play to consider who is off. I think there should be a lawsuit that forces them to stop lying. Maybe "Top Four Slugfest," or "Best of the Best," or "Condi's Love Fest." Or, if we really want to be honest, "Fuck You, Conferences."

They called it a playoff for baseball with only 4 teams. Seemed to work out okay.

Mississippi State's treatment didn't make a whole lot of sense, and I think the committee was saved from a MAJOR debacle when Ole Miss won that game.

Yeah, I can see that. I didn't think they were deserving of the 4th spot after Auburn, LSU and A&M all lost a bunch. I think they would have fallen eventually though.

Yea, I don't. Not if Baylor wins over KSU and wins the Big 12. Head to head should matter.

I think it does matter. I think it doesn't matter as much as losing to West Virginia by 14 in their eyes. Nor does it matter as much as having a stronger OOC schedule. Seriously, are we really complaining that Baylor is getting smacked for having the easiest OOC schedule in the nation? Isn't that what we want - to punish the teams that have shitty schedules and breeze through them while rewarding the teams that go for a harder overall schedule?

[James Arryn]

Mike Greenberg had a great point on Mike and Mike about FSU this morning.

Last week, FSU was 3, Miss St 4, and TCU 5. This week, TCU leaped FSU. Miss St dropped out because they lost to Ole MIss.

So the FSU/TCU relationship has nothing to do with the Miss St outcome. If Miss St had not lost, is the committee essentially saying that FSU would have dropped out of the polls this week? A Miss St that does not lose moves up to three and we already see that the committee believes that TCU is better than FSU; so therefore it stands to reason that absent a Miss St loss, the undefeated defending champs would be on the outside looking in.

Bizarre.

Politics and image have played a huge role in how FSU has been ranked this year. Don't look for logical consistency, the ratuonale can change week to week, but so long as a narrative can be found, it will be used.

It's actually an interesting situation. Defending champs possibly heading for an extremely rare back-to-back undefeated season who almost no one wants to respect.

[Kalbear]

college football is the only sport other than boxing where being a prior champ matters at all.

And hint: it doesn't actually matter.

[S John]

FSU is absolutely going to get in if they beat GT. I wouldn't worry about the actual ranking if I were an FSU fan. They are going to get a shot at the title by winning out. Since this isn't a 68 team tourney like in basketball I don't think seeding really matters that much, any of the three teams in there with FSU are going to be tough nuts to crack. It's not like being the number 1 seed is going to land them a first round against Rutgers or something. And FSU has somehow managed to be both undefeated and unimpressive. I suspect that they will step up their game if they make the playoffs so I'm not willing to make any predictions, but based on several games this year I think it is hard to imagine that FSU deserves to be favored over Alabama, Oregon, or even TCU. From that perspective, I think the rankings if the top 4 are entirely appropriate.

To me the biggest cause for controversy is really the TCU vs Baylor thing. I see the arguments from both sides of that one.

ETA:

Baylor is being penalized for the loss to WVU as well as a weak ooc, but I think it is worth mentioning that WVU also very nearly beat TCU. WVU had a two score lead going into the 4th quarter and lost by a single point. It was kind of similar to the way that Baylor beat TCU. I guess what I'm saying is that I think Baylor's ooc is the root of the problem because it doesn't make much sense to me to have them ranked the way they are based on Baylor's loss to WVU when TCU barely escaped Morgantown themselves.