R+L=J v.117

[PrettyPig]

If you're going to jump into the middle of this old argument, then let me as well.

All Ned believing Aegon is dead means is that Ned does not know a child he finds at the Tower of Joy is Aegon. It means if Aegon has been hidden there, Ned is unaware of the fact. Nothing more. Your assertion that Ned "must know" is the jump in logic, not that Aegon could have been there. So, how could Aegon be there without Ned knowing? Easy. The "they" who finds Ned grieving over Lyanna's body includes someone who continues to hide the child's identity from Ned. Let us speculate that includes a wet nurse - let us call her Wylla - who in addition to nursing Lyanna's newborn child has a child of her own who is a little older than the newborn. Ned takes the newborn, Wylla, Wylla's child, and rides with Howland Reed to Starfall. There he leaves Ser Arthur Dayne's sword and Wylla with the Daynes and departs with Howland Reed and Lyanna's child to Storm's End and meets up with the troops he left there. Why would he not leave Wylla's claimed child with her? He would. If he does not see through Wylla's story.

Now the cry around this idea is always hilarious. NO, Ned must know! He could not fail to recognize a Targaryen child. To which I always try to point out that we have numerous examples in the books in which Targaryen children or at least Targaryen looking children are hidden through shaving their hair, dyeing their hair, etc. Ned's belief Aegon is dead, is not proof Aegon is dead, nor is it proof the child wasn't at the Tower of Joy. A claim by Wylla to have an older child than Jon would fit her station. Wet nurses are wet nurses because they have had a child and continue to have milk that can be used by others. That she would have her child with her is no stretch. That Ned would believe such a story is fitting with Ned's character.

Let me close with the disclaimer. I think Aegon is dead. Either killed during the sack of King's Landing or after. Young Griff's story smacks too much of a pretender's story. Much like the pretenders who claimed to be one of the English princes who died in the Tower. Not that I don't believe Young Griff believes his story. He has been raised to believe it. Raised by a group of men who care nothing about whether or not he is the real Aegon or not. What I'm certain of is that Martin will give us more of Young Griff's back story, and some of it might be true. It would not surprise me in the least if this includes a claim to to have been secreted out of King's Landing to the Tower of Joy. The story will be possible. Martin is not done toying with us, his readers, before he reveals who Jon really is, or who Young Griff really is. So, when we read the tale of the Fisherman's daughter, or Young Griff's story, or Meera Reed's recounting of the tourney at Harrenhal, we are only still seeing bits and pieces of the tapestry that makes up the story. We have a long way to go.

And lastly, let me say, that all the many pages of arguments written by me and others about the conduct of the Kingsguard trio in staying at the tower instead of going to Viserys at Dragonstone as evidence that the true Targaryen heir was there with them works as well if that Targaryen heir is Aegon as if that heir is Jon. It is silly to ignore that possibility. Especially as it is obvious that Martin is going to develop the Young Griff as Aegon storyline further in upcoming books. It may be a red herring, or it maybe the truth, but it is there.

Nicely said. I'll say though that the chances of Ned Stark knowing what infant Aegon Targaryen actually looked like were slim to none. Oberyn made a point of saying Elia kept her children close and not letting wet nurses touch them, plus during real-Aegon's first year of life (during which Elia was in frail health) he most likely wasn't being wagged all over KL & Dragonstone, much less to places like the Vale and Winterfell where Ned would be. Ned Stark's first glimpse of baby Aegon was probably the day Tywin Lannister laid his corpse in front of Robert.

Not saying that fAegon is real, or that Varys is telling the truth, but I am saying that it is possible that the real baby Aegon had indeed been smuggled out of KL, brought to the ToJ for safekeeping and KG protection, and was being nursed by Wylla as her own 1yo child. Ned would never have known the difference. A blond-haired purple-eyed kid being nursed by a servant from House Dayne....sounds legit, right?

I can see the plausibility that the "king" being protected at ToJ, if you adhere to the analysis, is in fact Rhaegar's first son, not his (supposedly) second.

[Avalatis]

This argument does not jive.I've heard it here many times how much Ned viewed these men.Meaning their honor was widely known. Can't the same be said about Ned? Do you then actually thing the Kings guard would forestall Ned from seeing Lya and her baby because he would hurt them in any way? Ned's honor is so questionable to them that he'd take his nephew away and hand his nephew to Robert .Why?

Ned was a second son before the war broke out who didn't really attend that many tournaments that we're aware of. I doubt his honor was "well known". Especially since he just participated in a rebellion that ended with the killing of his King and Rhaegar's children. If these men felt that Jon was the new king they would defend him because at the very least Ned would make certain he would never see the throne (force him to join the night's watch or never tell him the truth). There was no good scenario.

The KG might have also been confident in their ability to dispatch 7 men. The dream does show they were confident in the fight.

[Ygrain]

Nicely said. I'll say though that the chances of Ned Stark knowing what infant Aegon Targaryen actually looked like were slim to none. Oberyn made a point of saying Elia kept her children close and not letting wet nurses touch them, plus during real-Aegon's first year of life (during which Elia was in frail health) he most likely wasn't being wagged all over KL & Dragonstone, much less to places like the Vale and Winterfell where Ned would be. Ned Stark's first glimpse of baby Aegon was probably the day Tywin Lannister laid his corpse in front of Robert.

Not saying that fAegon is real, or that Varys is telling the truth, but I am saying that it is possible that the real baby Aegon had indeed been smuggled out of KL, brought to the ToJ for safekeeping and KG protection, and was being nursed by Wylla as her own 1yo child. Ned would never have known the difference. A blond-haired purple-eyed kid being nursed by a servant from House Dayne....sounds legit, right?

I can see the plausibility that the "king" being protected at ToJ, if you adhere to the analysis, is in fact Rhaegar's first son, not his (supposedly) second.

My main issue, besides Ned thinking Aegon dead, is that the Aegon-in-the-tower scenario makes ToJ some frikkin' nursery, which, IMHO, is pretty anticlimactic.

[The Twinslayer]

It makes me wonder what the kingsguard did after Maekar's death. I doubt they dropped what they were doing and ran to Maegor to crown him and start defending him.

I have often wondered this. If the succession was automatic, then they would have proclaimed Prince Maegor to be king and started protecting him. Then at some point they would have transferred their oath to Egg without fighting for Maegor's rights. Meaning Maegor was an interim king who was then removed from the throne in favour of his uncle.

However, if they recognized that the succession laws are not clear (as GRRM says they are not) then they would wait until the competent authority told them who the new king was. This scenario seems much more likely to me.

[J. Stargaryen]

Believing what the story says, as that's what's actually written down, and then further supporting that with hints from the text, makes infinitely more sense than believing what you think, based off solely hints in the text.

The story says that Jon is Ned's. Hints found within the story support this.

On the other hand, only hints in the text say that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's.

Which sounds more convincing?

Ygrain is correct that you're mistaken about hints that Ned is Jon's father.

I've given my opinion on this before, actually. If the is text suggesting one answer but the subtext another, I'd definitely lean toward the subtext. With caveats regarding the strength of the subtext and narrative utility, of course. The reason being, red herrings in the text are a real thing. Red herrings in the subtext, not so much. They only serve their purpose if the audience is aware of them. Which means that subtext hinting at a certain conclusion makes it much more likely that conclusion is true, than not true.

[PrettyPig]

My main issue, besides Ned thinking Aegon dead, is that the Aegon-in-the-tower scenario makes ToJ some frikkin' nursery, which, IMHO, is pretty anticlimactic.

I dunno, I suppose it depends on the game plan and involvement of the other players (like Varys), AND the critical question of, if he was smuggled out of KL, what actually happened to baby Aegon Targaryen.....because nice as the story goes, I am not sold on the idea that fAegon is the real deal.

IMO there is a deeper story surrounding the babies of Generation Robellion, and I suspect that this is where we might see a darker side to the honorable Ned Stark.

[markg171]

...or rather, there was an inside source that tipped Ned off where to go.

The fact that Aerys wanted the heads of Ned and Robert apparently had nothing to do with the rebellion then? Lyanna goes missing, yet no fighting occurs, Rickard and Brandon are killed, still no fighting, up to the point when Aerys orders Jon Arryn to deliver him the said head and Arryn rebels.

You're kidding me right?

If someone tipped off Ned, then someone else knew where the TOJ was. So now you've got even more people knowing about this "secret location". It's not a secret if so many people know about it.

And your second point is even sillier. Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. The only people who would give a shit, are Rickard, Brandon, Robert, and Ned. Rickard and Brandon both went to KL for blood: Brandon with a group of a couple friends, Rickard with a group of 200. Every single one of the dies except Ethan Glover. How was there no fighting? Did they all just mysteriously die?

Then Robert and Ned were in the Eyrie. How the hell do you expect them to start fighting, when all of Robert's troops are in the south, and all of Ned's troops are in the north? The full scale rebellion starts when Jon Arryn starts it because he's the one in the seat of his power and readily able to call his banners. Ned and Robert join him as soon as they are able to.

Are you sure you've read the books?

[MtnLion]

So there’s something wrong with the dream passage, but what? To a large extent the encounter itself is confirmed by the passage about Ned’s thoughts on waking. He’s not dreaming, feverishly or otherwise, when he thinks of Martyn Cassel and the aftermath of the fight, so it obviously happened and it ended with all of them dead except Messrs Stark and Reed. Nor do I think there’s a problem with the exchange between Ned and the Kingsguard that preceded the fight. It’s too clear, too precise, not to be a memory of an actual conversation, or at least an accurate memory of the gist of what was said. Nor can Ned seeing his dead friends as wraiths be regarded as significant enough to justify GRRM’s warning. That then leaves Lyanna.

Not necessarily the only option. What about imagery? What about who rode away? There is more than Ned and Howland in the party, since “they” found Ned holding his sister’s dead hand. There are a lot of things, other than suggesting that we should focus on Lyanna.

Is GRRM therefore hinting that in his “fever dream” Ned is conflating two related but different memories; that of the fight and that of Lyanna’s death afterwards, not in an old watchtower in the Prince’s Pass, but somewhere else entirely and not improbably Starfall?

Hold that thought and consider, because transferring Lyanna to Starfall actually resolves a lot of practical problems. After the fight at the tower, Ned and Howland bury their dead and then do carry on to Starfall, ostensibly to return Ser Arthur Dayne’s sword:

So suppose there they are told that Lyanna is dying. Ned goes to her alone and sits with her long after she has died. Eventually Howland and some of the others intrude upon his grief and take him away so that the body can be washed and prepared for the long journey home.

That has absolutely no foundation. It can be dismissed as easily as it is suggested, with no evidence.

Dismissed.

<snip>

All very well says you, but what about the Kingsguard and why the tower?

Again it’s worth turning back to GRRM, specifically answering that question:

http://web.archive.o...s3/00103009.htm

Martin: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that.

Again hold this for a moment, because there’s a clear implication here that the reason they were so far from home in the first place is that they were obeying an order given by Prince Rhaegar. Exactly what that order was we don’t know but it is apparent from the exchange with Ned it was an order they didn’t like. It’s also important at this point to consider the timing of that order.

Ned must know the answer, show me where he knows why they were there.

ETA: See my signature:

GRRM: Winter is coming. Just so. It is known. Nuncle. Words are wind. You know nothing. Much and more. Pease porridge. As useful as nipples on a breastplate. ... and Moon Boy, for all I know.

Jon's Pearls of Wisdom: Are you so blind, or is it that you do not wish to see? Fetch me a block!

From the App: "At the war's end, Lyanna Stark was found dying by her brother Eddard, and by Howland Reed, in the red mountains of Dorne, at the place Rhaegar called the tower of joy."

At the tower of joy accompanied by Ygrain's clarification

[MtnLion]

If their job is to obey, and they follow that order to their deaths, why wouldn't he think them honourable? We already know that Hightower stood by and let Ned's father burn to death and his brother strangle himself, yet Ned doesn't think anything less of him for that, why would them guarding his sister so their prince could rape her change anything?

The point is, Ned must know why. Show me what Ned knows!

[SFDanny]

Ned cites Arthur as being the best of the shining example to the rest of the world that the Kingsguard are. There must be logic to his thoughts, meaning you cannot have the Kingsguard protecting and defending the king with their lives, without Ned knowing who the king is that they are protecting and defending.

Ned does indeed believe that Ser Arthur was a great knight and not just in battle prowess. We are given Ned's reaction to Jaime killing the king he was sworn to protect with his life as sort of antithesis of Ser Arthur. We told over and over Ned's high regard to what he regards as honorable conduct and his reaction to the Kingsguard trio certainly makes us believe he views them as the epitome of honorable men. No dispute there. I agree he thinks the three men died trying to stay true to their oaths. He also questions them as to why they aren't in Dragonstone with Viserys. We must conclude then that either Ned thought that their deaths were consistent with their oaths in some fashion - i.e. following Rhaegar's orders to protect Lyanna and her child - or he finds a child he thinks is the heir to the Targaryen throne. I don't think we can be certain which of these is what Ned thought, but if it is the latter then it means that he thinks Jon is the heir. The presence of what he thinks is a wet nurse's child does not alter that at all.

[wolfmaid7]

They didn't choose the hiding spot...Rhaegar did. And with a sick mother and newborn child, the last thing they would do is start traveling.

And you don't know how easy or difficult it was for Ned to find them. No one else found them, other than Hightower, so it wasn't as if it were widely disseminated knowledge at the time.

It doesn't matter if Rheagar chose or they chose the point then is this place is not well hidden it was in the princes pass a main route from the Reach and the stormlands to Dorne.

One of the points is that they were guarding Rheagar's secret child. This is not a well hid place to hold up for months.

[MtnLion]

Are you sure you've read the books?

It is looking more and more like you have not. Reading does involve comprehension.

[MtnLion]

Ned does indeed believe that Ser Arthur was a great knight and not just in battle prowess. We are given Ned's reaction to Jaime killing the king he was sworn to protect with his life as sort of antithesis of Ser Arthur. We told over and over Ned's high regard to what he regards as honorable conduct and his reaction to the Kingsguard trio certainly makes us believe he views them as the epitome of honorable men. No dispute there. I agree he thinks the three men died trying to stay true to their oaths. He also questions them as to why they aren't in Dragonstone with Viserys. We must conclude then that either Ned thought that their deaths were consistent with their oaths in some fashion - i.e. following Rhaegar's orders to protect Lyanna and her child - or he finds a child he thinks is the heir to the Targaryen throne. I don't think we can be certain which of these is what Ned thought, but if it is the latter then it means that he thinks Jon is the heir. The presence of what he thinks is a wet nurse's child does not alter that at all.

What evidence do we have that a wetnurse was present, and that she had another child with her? Ned knows that the Kingsguard died protecting and defending the king, to justify his thoughts about them. Lyanna had given birth. Lyanna extracts a promise from Ned that releases her from a lot of anxiety. I don't believe that it was a promise about the wetnurse's kid . . .

Anyway no evidence, dismissed with no evidence.

[SFDanny]

My main issue, besides Ned thinking Aegon dead, is that the Aegon-in-the-tower scenario makes ToJ some frikkin' nursery, which, IMHO, is pretty anticlimactic.

I don't think the presence of another child alters things much at all. It is credible that a wet nurse would have an older child, and not unlikely that the child might still be with her. In my opinion it fits nicely into Martin's fascination with themes consistent with the War of the Roses - specifically the Two Princes in Tower - all with his special added twists. As I said earlier, my guess is that even if Aegon was there he is dead. My bet is that Griff's Septa will be one of the major ways how we find out more of this backstory.

[Dorian Martell]

Hodor

[markg171]

The word hint doesn't mean what you think it does. It is never hinted that Jon is Ned's son, it is general belief based on the words and actions of a single person - Ned, who controls the flow of information.

So explain how Robert knew that Ned had fathered a bastard on a woman named Wylla? Ned has seen him once in 15 years, yet Robert remembers that Ned fathered a bastard during the war off of a woman named Wylla. Do you think Ned just showed up at KL after the TOJ with Rhaegar's son in tow and Robert didn't suspect a thing? Do you think Ned just brought up 6 years later while he was storming Pyke with Robert that he'd fathered a bastard during the war?

Robert knew about Jon and he knew who the mother was. It's therefore not exactly a stretch to assume he knows this because he remembers Ned fathering the bastard or he remembers Ned telling him about it during the war.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Who, how and when was Arianne betrothed to Viserys?

When hiding in Braavos, Oberyn Martell signed a pact with Willam Darry, with the Sealord as a witness.

So somewhere in between 284 and 289 AC.

Dany was 13 when she was force-married to Drogo. Sansa was 13 when she was force-wed to Tyrion. Margaery was 14 or 15 when she wed Renly. Lady Ermesande was an infant when she was married to whichever Lannister.

Point being, although older is probably better, there was definitely room for play in terms of ages. Allyria COULD be older than 14 (not 18 though, as then she would be too young to be Ashara and Brandon's kid too), but the older she gets the more we wander into "what's the point" territory (eta: surrounding all the secrecy around House Dayne, I mean). Having her be about 14 could be nothing....or it could be huge.

Dany's marriage was a political move,necessary to happen that year, it a few years layer.

same with Sansa, and with Margaery.

There is no exact age for marriage of betrothal.. at times, it occurs when the child still an infant. Amongst the royal house, 13 for marriages seemed to be the minimum, though here were a few exceptions. When politics come into play, then 14/15/16 becomes the age most often "used".

And when there are peace times, 16-18 is often used, though not always, it could be younger.

Saying that Allyria couldn't have been 18 in 298 because then an unproven theory wouldn't work anymore is a terrible argument. Keep Allyrias parents into account.. Ashara, if she had lived, would have been in her 30ties.. Ashara had two older siblings, and her mother would have been at least around 13, if not older, when the eldest of her children was born (Edrics dad).

The younger you make Allyria, the older the mother becomes. Mother would have been born the earliest around roughly 245 AC.

Could Allyria have been born in only 285, for example? Sure, but the younger Ashara, he younger the mother (and that is assuming a mid30ties Ashara with a young mother and only a few months between end and start of he first three pregnancies).

See the problem?

[sj4iy]

It doesn't matter if Rheagar chose or they chose the point then is this place is not well hidden it was in the princes pass a main route from the Reach and the stormlands to Dorne.

One of the points is that they were guarding Rheagar's secret child. This is not a well hid place to hold up for months.

Ever think that it might not be practical to move a woman who is very pregnant and might be experiencing complications? The KG didn't choose the ToJ. By the time Rhaegar left, Lyanna would have been very pregnant and in no condition to travel. I don't really see the issue with this when it was not their decision in the first place to go to the ToJ. If you think it was a bad hiding place (and considering that only two people ever found it, I completely disagree), then blame Rhaegar...not the KG. They had no choice but to stay there until the child was born and mother and son were able to travel.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

It makes me wonder what the kingsguard did after Maekar's death. I doubt they dropped what they were doing and ran to Maegor to crown him and start defending him.

Had Maegor been proclaimed, they would have gone to him, probably. But Maekar hadn't proclaimed a new heir after Aerion had died..

[Avalatis]

So explain how Robert knew that Ned had fathered a bastard on a woman named Wylla? Ned has seen him once in 15 years, yet Robert remembers that Ned fathered a bastard during the war off of a woman named Wylla. Do you think Ned just showed up at KL after the TOJ with Rhaegar's son in tow and Robert didn't suspect a thing? Do you think Ned just brought up 6 years later while he was storming Pyke with Robert that he'd fathered a bastard during the war?

Robert knew about Jon and he knew who the mother was. It's therefore not exactly a stretch to assume he knows this because he remembers Ned fathering the bastard or he remembers Ned telling him about it during the war.

Pretty certain that Robert would still keep tabs on news from his best friend from youth. Just because they had a falling out doesn't mean he ignored Ned for 15 years. Likely Vary's told him that Ned had a bastard and that the presumed mother was probably a woman named Wylla. Ned could have even written him a letter. Or perhaps had stayed in constant contact with Jon Arryn who passed on information to Robert. Or when they obviously had time to spend together and talk while fighting the Iron Islands rebellion. There are numerous answers to this question. You're acting like there is no reasonable answer for Robert to vaguely remember the name of the woman who had managed to seduce the honorable Ned.

Robert doesn't know Wylla, nor does he know when he was fathered. The fact that he knows that honorable Ned fathered a bastard is completely different from what you are stating.