R+L=J v.117

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Except Ned's opinion of them (at least the one referred to) is the one he had IN HINDSIGHT of the events. So he would already know if they were protecting a potential king, or guarding Rhaegar's sex doll.

I would agree. Ahead of time, there presence means nothing. It's his high esteem for them in particular that really suggests they're doing more than guarding a sex prisoner.

I don't know. It's possible that what Ned heard in the KG responses to his questions was just a chivalrous "Eff you. We're the KG, and not answerable to Ned Stark."

At the same time, I'm not at all arguing that the alternatives boil down to: (A) L was R's sex slave; or (B ) L was R's consensual lover.

As far as I'm concerned, the more interesting alternatives to consider are:

(1) Rhaegar and Lyanna had sex; vs

(2) Rhaegar and Lyanna did not have sex

.

[markg171]

Banners weren't called, nor do we have ANY* indication that Stark or Baratheon were going to war prior to Aerys calling for Ned and Robert's heads, because reasons. This is Westeros. A fiance/sister is disposable. Calling for the head of Lord Paramounts is a no-no.

*Haven't read AWOIAF, so there I suppose could be something there.

A Lord Paramount and his heir were murdered, along with over 200 of the best northerners and members of the Vale before Aerys called for the heads of 2 more Lord Paramount's in Robert and Ned. Every instance talking about Ned calling his banners though, says he does not do that until he reaches Winterfell. The easiest reason for that is Winterfell is the only place where Ned can actually call on all his bannermen with any of them believing he is who he says he is as he needs the direwolf signet ring, and Winterfell would have access to the ravens that can travel to everywhere in the north, not just to a few locations like the Eyrie would. Ned cannot call his banners, without first going back north which is the very first thing he does.

We hear that Robert and Jon suffered resistance summoning their banners, but we do not hear that about Ned and the northerners. All of the north rises when Ned calls his banners, as if they had been waiting for it seeing as 200 of the best northerners, their Lord Paramount and his heir had been murdered, and Lyanna had been kidnapped. There is every indication that banners were expected to be called, at least on the Stark side, and that preparations had already been made before Ned actually called on his lords.

[J. Stargaryen]

Well, my goodness. You seem to think my own assessment is just as valuable as the collective assessment of "thousands of smart people" you've constantly assured us have conclusively demonstrated R+L=J for years and years now.

You seem to have forgotten that R+L=J is, as we are constantly told, the leading theory on the forums. The one with the strongest weight of evidence! The most accepted! The most certain! Certainly no little theory of mine, on any subject, can possibly come close to that paragon, right?

And I have certainly never said I think any theory, on any subject, can have 100% probability, whether mine or not. (If it did, it'd be a fact, not a theory.)

So I see you do lack the spine. You do not seriously believe the odds of R+L=J are 100%. You do not see this bet as simply taking $100 from me, which logically speaking, you should.

You fear losing $10,000 (not $100,000, by the way -- grade three math tells me that), and so duck the bet.

Omg you guys, I must be spineless because I questioned this random internet guy's arbitrary odds when he challenged me to a bet. And wouldn't you know, the guy who is calling me spineless claims to know for certain the real truth -- not R+L=J -- about Jon's parentage. Except he won't share it with anyone on here. Because of reasons and stuff. Even though he regularly makes it known that he definitely does possesses this knowledge. Hey JNR, I bet I know the real reason you don't share your theories on the forum.

"It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." - Mark Twain

[JonSnow4President]

A Lord Paramount and his heir were murdered, along with over 200 of the best northerners and members of the Vale before Aerys called for the heads of 2 more Lord Paramount's in Robert and Ned. Every instance talking about Ned calling his banners though, says he does not do that until he reaches Winterfell. The easiest reason for that is Winterfell is the only place where Ned can actually call on all his bannermen with any of them believing he is who he says he is as he needs the direwolf signet ring, and Winterfell would have access to the ravens that can travel to everywhere in the north, not just to a few locations like the Eyrie would. Ned cannot call his banners, without first going back north which is the very first thing he does.

We hear that Robert and Jon suffered resistance summoning their banners, but we do not hear that about Ned and the northerners. All of the north rises when Ned calls his banners, as if they had been waiting for it seeing as 200 of the best northerners, their Lord Paramount and his heir had been murdered, and Lyanna had been kidnapped. There is every indication that banners were expected to be called, at least on the Stark side, and that preparations had already been made before Ned actually called on his lords.

But, once again, there is no indication that this occurred prior to him calling for Ned and Robert's heads. Specifically, he called for Lord Arryn to deliver them, as they were still in the Vale. I agree it would be completely reasonable if the Stormlands and the North were anticipating things happening, but the war was fought because of the murder/attempted murder of Brandon, Rickard, and Ned for the North, and the attempted murder of Robert Baratheon in the Stormlands. It was not fought for Lyanna.

Given how many times you've argued against R+L=J because "it's not stated in the books," I find your position particularly amusing.

[sj4iy]

...has this really devolved into a "I bet you $10,000 that I know something you don't!" conversation?

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

This thread is getting a bit ugly.

I suggest to everyone that if your discourse with someone has got to the stage where you feel like the only answer you can give is something that's going to be insulting, just don't reply. Yeah, I know, sometimes you just really want to point out how stupid the thing they just said is, but it's not worth it.

It's inevitable with a thread like this that people are going to have sometimes radically different ideas. That's ok, it's a big thread with lots of space. And there are no prizes for being right, or for having the most popular opinion. Sometimes people might discuss something that seems obviously wrong, or that was covered in depth a dozen threads back. If you don't enjoy that debate, then talk about something else, because otherwise you're helping to perpetuate it. Sometimes the best thing for that theory you hate is to let it sit on its own and mature into something worth paying attention to, or die on the vine from lack of support.

Well said, indeed. :cheers:

[The Wolves]

So what else do you guys think Jon got from Lyanna besides his looks?

Jon did say he rode a horse better than anyone in Winterfell and somebody also said Lyanna rode really good.

[teej6]

But, once again, there is no indication that this occurred prior to him calling for Ned and Robert's heads. Specifically, he called for Lord Arryn to deliver them, as they were still in the Vale. I agree it would be completely reasonable if the Stormlands and the North were anticipating things happening, but the war was fought because of the murder/attempted murder of Brandon, Rickard, and Ned for the North, and the attempted murder of Robert Baratheon in the Stormlands. It was not fought for Lyanna.

Given how many times you've argued against R+L=J because "it's not stated in the books," I find your position particularly amusing.

My point exactly.

[sj4iy]

So what else do you guys think Jon got from Lyanna besides his looks?

Jon did say he rode a horse better than anyone in Winterfell and somebody also said Lyanna rode really good.

Yeah, his horsemanship skills seems to be very similar to Lyanna's.

As far as other attributes, I don't think we can be sure, since we don't know a lot about her.

[markg171]

But, once again, there is no indication that this occurred prior to him calling for Ned and Robert's heads. Specifically, he called for Lord Arryn to deliver them, as they were still in the Vale. I agree it would be completely reasonable if the Stormlands and the North were anticipating things happening, but the war was fought because of the murder/attempted murder of Brandon, Rickard, and Ned for the North, and the attempted murder of Robert Baratheon in the Stormlands. It was not fought for Lyanna.

Given how many times you've argued against R+L=J because "it's not stated in the books," I find your position particularly amusing.

Because in this instance, Ned and Robert were only wanted, because Brandon and Rickard and a small army already descended upon KL demanding Lyanna back. The war starts when Lyanna goes missing. If Lyanna doesn't go missing, no one dies and no one calls for any banners or heads, on either side.

It's completely different situation than saying R+L=J, because Lyanna actually does go missing, and very, very important people die trying to get her back before the war "starts" with Arryn calling his banners, and this is all in the book, whereas R+L=J relies on taking unrelated pieces and trying to piece them together to create this theory. I've said before I believe in taking the facts of the book and adding other clues to support the facts, rather than just taking clues from the book and coming up with your own interpretation and this completely goes with it. Jon Arryn calling his banners is just the tipping point, the war started when Lyanna was adbucted. If Ned, Robert, or Arryn didn't call their banners, someone else would have as Aerys murdered very important people when he murdered the people who came for Lyanna.

[midi]

Does this topic really deserve a hundred and seventeen versions?

I bet this "revelation" doesn't have half as many implications on the storyline as some seem to think. It may even be that JonJon will never find out before dying to add to the tragedy of his character. "The prince that never was to the king that will never be"

[markg171]

So what else do you guys think Jon got from Lyanna besides his looks?

Jon did say he rode a horse better than anyone in Winterfell and somebody also said Lyanna rode really good.

Where is it said he rides better than anybody? Jon admits that Robb is the better jouster between them.

And Harwin says that Arya rides like Lyanna, but he still outrides her. Harwyn was at Winterfell when Jon was, so he can't possibly have been the best horse rider at Winterfell, even if we ignore the fact that Robb was a better jouster than him and Jaime notes that jousting is 3/4 horsemanship

[The Wolves]

Where is it said he rides better than anybody? Jon admits that Robb is the better jouster between them.

And Harwin says that Arya rides like Lyanna, but he still outrides her. Harwyn was at Winterfell when Jon was, so he can't possibly have been the best horse rider at Winterfell, even if we ignore the fact that Robb was a better jouster than him and Jaime notes that jousting is 3/4 horsemanship

Jon's very first chapter in AGOT when he was talking about him being a better swordsman than Robb to Benjen

[sj4iy]

Does this topic really deserve a hundred and seventeen versions?

I bet this "revelation" doesn't have half as many implications on the storyline as some seem to think. It may even be that JonJon will never find out before dying to add to the tragedy of his character. "The prince that never was to the king that will never be"

Alaurian wrote:

"I have a million questions, but the one that I really am most wanting to know is .... will Jon ever find out about his parentage?"

GRRM: Eventually, yes.

[SFDanny]

Nonsense, yourself. If my aunt had had balls, she would have been my uncle.

:laugh: Funny, but not on point. You know for a fact your aunt is female and not male. Or that's your assumption. On the other hand, I've asserted nothing about facts from the book, and then suggested they are not facts. If so, your pithy remark might be on point. As it is you've not yet dealt with the two clues that I've written about that would support Aegon being at the Tower of Joy. I've never suggested this is proof of his being there, but they do support the idea. You seem to think a royal wave of the hand dismissing discussion ends it. It doesn't .

As you well know Martin details only the members of Ned's party, the Kingsguard Trio, and Lyanna as being at the Tower of Joy. Not a baby Jon or any other - though many accept the idea of Lyanna dying from complications of childbirth and her child being Jon, a son of Rhaegar. It is a detail he also leaves out. He also uses the pronoun "they" to describe the party that finds Ned holding Lyanna's dead body, so we can assume there is at least one other person unaccounted for, along with Howland Reed, who finds Ned. It is not an established fact that Wylla was there, but there are things that point to her being there. Specifically, it is Wylla that is thought to be Jon's mother by the heir to Starfall, and it is Wylla who claims to have nursed Jon. Note that she is known as a wet nurse in Starfall. The city Ned travels to after the encounter at the Tower of Joy. These are called hints, clues, or evidence that Wylla was there and she arrives from the Tower of Joy nursing Jon. So, yes, Martin points to a wet nurse named Wylla as our number one suspect for who constituted the "they" along with Howland at the Tower. You know this, I know you know this, and yet you want to be argumentative at every point.

Already answered previously. Egg and Young Griff tell you why he wouldn't necessarily have noticed.

The point is to challenge what seems to rigid assumptions that are calcifying into stone. If you can't see that A Dance with Dragons gave us new information to work with, then I suggest you reread the chapters where Young Griff talks about his origins. It should challenge assumptions. Before ADwD we only had Martin's cryptic "no comment" when ask about whether Aegon was dead. Now one has to deal with his storyline and figure out if there is any truth to it.

I seem to remember discussing this with you before, but again, there is plenty of reason for Rhaegar and Elia to try to get Aegon out of King's Landing and out of the control of the the Mad King's paranoid whims. Aerys has already used Elia herself as a hostage to Dorne's compliance. He uses the children as hostages after Rhaegar's death. There is ample evidence about a split between Aerys and Rhaegar. There is testimony that the man who was Rhaegar's most trusted companion was Ser Arthur Dayne. So, reasons to smuggle Aegon out aren't even really a question. Why he would choose Ser Arthur, Hightower, and Whent to hide his child or children really isn't a hard thing to understand. These are some of the few men he trusts. The question is can Rhaegar and/or Elia get it done, and do they really trust Varys to help them do so. In short, is this part of Young Griff's story even partly true. My guess is only partly. I see no reason for them to trust Varys. I see every reason for them to try to do so without his knowledge. It may well be they try and don't succeed, and Varys uses the plot as the inspiration of one of his own using a child other than the real Aegon. Or it could be that the real Aegon is smuggled out to Ser Arthur's safe keeping, and when Varys discovers it he uses the fact to help him set his own plots in motion. The point is to look at the evidence Young Griff's story presents and to shift it for things that make sense within the context of the story as Martin has laid it out.

No one is saying, at least that I've seen, that Martin is changing his story because we have figured it out. I'm confident there is much we haven't figured out. And I'm confident that readers have also guessed some of things correctly. I think Jon being the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna is one of the latter things. Even if that is true, that doesn't mean much more remains to be answered around this storyline.

totally off topic: Apple, I love your title! Just noticed it.

[JonSnow4President]

Where is it said he rides better than anybody? Jon admits that Robb is the better jouster between them.

And Harwin says that Arya rides like Lyanna, but he still outrides her. Harwyn was at Winterfell when Jon was, so he can't possibly have been the best horse rider at Winterfell, even if we ignore the fact that Robb was a better jouster than him and Jaime notes that jousting is 3/4 horsemanship

p 53 in the box set Game of Thrones, Jon I where he's taking to Benjen

"Robb is a stronger lance than I am, but I'm the better sword, and Hullen says I sit a horse as well as anyone in the castle."

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Does this topic really deserve a hundred and seventeen versions?

This running thread has three types of conversations:

1. Regulars discussing aspects or implications of the theory.

2. New posters who are unfamiliar with the theory and want to know more.

3. People in sad denial.

Combine all of those (especially #3), and there are your 117 versions. Which, by the way, you contributed to yourself by posting.

And as sj4iy said, GRRM's said that Jon will eventually learn who his parents are. So this "it might not even matter" argument is bunk. If it didn't matter at all, Jon would just be Ned's bastard by some woman and it wouldn't be such a secret.

[BearQueen87]

This running thread has three types of conversations:

1. Regulars discussing aspects or implications of the theory.

2. New posters who are unfamiliar with the theory and want to know more.

3. People in sad denial.

Combine all of those (especially #3), and there are your 117 versions. Which, by the way, you contributed to yourself by posting.

And as sj4iy said, GRRM's said that Jon will eventually learn who his parents are. So this "it might not even matter" argument is bunk. If it didn't matter at all, Jon would just be Ned's bastard by some woman and it wouldn't be such a secret.

*desperately wishing #1 would dominate next thread because I really want to talk about some other stuff*

[JonSnow4President]

This running thread has three types of conversations:

1. Regulars discussing aspects or implications of the theory.

2. New posters who are unfamiliar with the theory and want to know more.

3. People in sad denial.

Combine all of those (especially #3), and there are your 117 versions. Which, by the way, you contributed to yourself by posting.

And as sj4iy said, GRRM's said that Jon will eventually learn who his parents are. So this "it might not even matter" argument is bunk. If it didn't matter at all, Jon would just be Ned's bastard by some woman and it wouldn't be such a secret.

Eh, I think it's a possibility that R+L=J doesn't do much to the story besides providing Jon with more internal conflict about his identity. I wouldn't consider it the most probable outcome, but who cares what I think on that regard. Assuming it's true (legally required to insert that), it will have some impact. The question is how much?

Edit: Accidentally clicked reply to Bear Queen, and my stupid computer won't delete the box without deleting AM's post.

[Ser Creighton]

Because in this instance, Ned and Robert were only wanted, because Brandon and Rickard and a small army already descended upon KL demanding Lyanna back. The war starts when Lyanna goes missing. If Lyanna doesn't go missing, no one dies and no one calls for any banners or heads, on either side.

It's completely different situation than saying R+L=J, because Lyanna actually does go missing, and very, very important people die trying to get her back before the war "starts" with Arryn calling his banners, and this is all in the book, whereas R+L=J relies on taking unrelated pieces and trying to piece them together to create this theory. I've said before I believe in taking the facts of the book and adding other clues to support the facts, rather than just taking clues from the book and coming up with your own interpretation and this completely goes with it. Jon Arryn calling his banners is just the tipping point, the war started when Lyanna was adbucted. If Ned, Robert, or Arryn didn't call their banners, someone else would have as Aerys murdered very important people when he murdered the people who came for Lyanna.

Actually the war didn't start when Lyanna went missing, it was one of the catalysts that led to the war. Another catalyst was Aerys madness, and yet another was inside and outside influences pushing Aerys paranoia. Brandon storming into KL was a catalyst. The war began when Jon Arryn raised his banners to defend Robert and Ned. There is no question of that. The war did not start when Lyanna was abducted and may never have, there is political recourse, however there was Aerys and his actions led to the war. Saying the war started when Lyanna was abducted is in fact a twisting of the facts. We know exactly when it started and why.

'It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.'