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US Elections 2016: The END IS NEAR


Kalbear

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I have seen a decent amount of bumper stickers going both ways. So far they are either pro one candidate or anti-Hillary (Hillary for prison seems to be the most popular but it really does look pro-Hillary until you get a second look); no anti Trump specific ones thus far.  Colorado always has a few libertarian stickers around as well.

Almost no Hillary signs though my neighborhood is starting to show a few Trump ones.  We also have big Trump billboards on the farmland by the interstate.  I asked about getting a Hillary sign and it sounds like the campaign isn't really paying for them and around here they are only go to volunteers.

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I haven't really noticed a noticeable decline in political signage where I live. I live in an area that is highly supportive of Trump, for the most part, so most the signs I see are pro-Trump unfortunately.

Turning to some other matters:

One of the Trumpster's genius ideas was to build a wall with Mexico because allegedly the inflow of undocumented immigrants was a big problem and was likely to continue. 

Here is some interesting information putting the Trumpster's claims into context or you might say grounding them back in reality.

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More recently, however, Mexico's fertility rate has fallen (as in some Central American economies), and economic growth there has mostly outpaced that of the United States. Therefore, it is perhaps not too surprising that demographic trends—along with greater enforcement—have caused the inflows of undocumented migration at the U.S.-Mexico border to slow in recent years. Shifts in demographic and economic factors across countries are likely to continue to influence undocumented immigration in the United States.

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2016/10/slump-undocumented-immigration-to-united-states.html

In my humble opinion, the undocumented immigrant thing was largely a distraction, promoted by certain people to cover their own stupidity.

In short, it looks like one of Trump's signature issues is likely becoming very much a non-issue given some recent trends.

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I drove from Vacaville, Ca to Susanville, Ca last week and only saw one sign, which was for Trump.  I was surprised that I didn't see more around Susanville as it's rural, but no, didn't see one.

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5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have an open question and I'd really love to hear about what you fine folks are seeing. I have worked on several campaigns, and lawn signs have always been a staple. However, this year I'm barely seeing any signs here in MN (Twin Cities area). Now I'd expect a slight drop off because there aren't any statewide races outside of the presidential campaign, but there are still a lot of local races, and often times, those can be the campaigns that rely on the visibility from lawn signs the most. And on top of that, there's an unusually high number of incumbent state legislators who are not seeking reelection, so you'd think the new candidates would be doing everything in their power to get their name out there. So my question is simply this; "Are you guys seeing the same thing in your area? Are lawn signs being phased out in favor of internet advertising or because of some other reason?" I'm mostly curious with swing states/districts, but I'd love as much input as possible. 

Small town Alaska here, heavily republican/conservative area.  I have yet to see any signs for Trump or Clinton.  Not many political signs period, about half of which are for state offices.  The rest promote Murkowski or Miller.

 

I deliver mail for a living.  This time last election, we'd get three or four rounds of political fliers a day (which sucked.)  This time around, almost the only fliers are coming from the Murkowski campaign.  (about 90%)  And they appear maybe once a week. NOTHING from either Clinton or Trump.  (I do, however, suspect this will change in the next week or so.)

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My area is suburban turning to rural, north of Boston -- there are three horse owners on my street. Yard sign activity has been anomalous this year -- I pay attention to these things because of my personal interest. The longtime sheriff is retiring this year and something like 13 candidates threw in to succeed him, so there were a lot of sheriff signs around for the primaries. I am used to seeing some signs for Congressional races, but I have not seen any this year, with one weird exception. Our US Rep is a freshman Democrat, Army captain who served in Iraq, and pointedly told the Boston Globe (when there was a big national debate a few months ago about accepting Syrian refugees and poison M&M analogies were being memed around) about helping to bring his unit's translator over to the US after his deployment and hosted him in his own house. I like him very much and am happy to be able to vote for him. So there's a yard sign of his, right next to a Trump sign on the same lawn.

I have seen a few Trump signs around. There's one business on the main highway that had an anti-Obama logo above their front door for years, and lately switched it to a "Get on the Trump Train" banner with a fucking graphic of Trump with a majestic crest of hair as a steaming train. It is hilariously awful. There's also a house I've seen with a Gadsden flag and a Trump flag. I took note of whose sheriff signs they put up and planned not to vote for him.

I saw my first Hillary sign after the Democratic Convention, and that was it until after the first debate, when I saw three or four sprout up. I've seen one Jill Stein sign that's been up for a few weeks. I noticed my first Johnson-Weld sign a week or two ago.

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I'm not seeing any of the small yard signs here, but there are more than a few large Trump: Make America Great Again banners all over. Most on the farmlands around here. One at this crafts place near me and one at the VFW. I've also seen a bunch of Trump bumper stickers.

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Another person noted what I've been ranting about for years. Democrats have zero chance of regaining a majority in the house until 2032

he even wrote a book about it

 

www.vox.com/conversations/2016/10/5/13097066/gerrymandering-redistricting-republican-party-david-daley-karl-rove-barack-obama

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24 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Another person noted what I've been ranting about for years. Democrats have zero chance of regaining a majority in the house until 2032

Let's wait until 2020 (presidential year turnout in a year where redistricting is on the line).

That said, 2006 wasn't supposed to happen either. All you need is one deeply unpopular Republican President, and things start looking interesting in Congress. 

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1 hour ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Let's wait until 2020 (presidential year turnout in a year where redistricting is on the line).

That said, 2006 wasn't supposed to happen either. All you need is one deeply unpopular Republican President, and things start looking interesting in Congress. 

As the article says, 2010 was a paradigm shift unlike any other in US history, they nuked the gentlemans agreement around gerrymandering.

and as the article points out, republicans have a total lock on state legislature districts, so they're unlikely to lose much in the next redistricting round, democrats will make only a dent, but fundamentally won't significantly alter republicans numbers in the house. 

Again the total loss of state legislature districts will lock democrats mostly out of the bargaining process next time. 

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Sooo much dumb.

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“Mike Pence did an incredible job, and I’m getting a lot of credit because that’s really my first so-called choice. That was my first hire, as we would say in Las Vegas.”

1. Your first 'so-called' choice? What does that mean? Are you suggesting it wasn't a choice? And in fact, Pence wasn't your first choice!

2. 'As we would say in Las Vegas'? Do they not say that anywhere else, then? That's pretty stupid, as we would say in Las Vegas.

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“I’d argue that Mike had the single most decisive victory in the history of vice presidential debates,” Trump declared. “I believe that, too.”

The single most decisive victory.

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2 hours ago, lokisnow said:

As the article says, 2010 was a paradigm shift unlike any other in US history, they nuked the gentlemans agreement around gerrymandering.

and as the article points out, republicans have a total lock on state legislature districts, so they're unlikely to lose much in the next redistricting round, democrats will make only a dent, but fundamentally won't significantly alter republicans numbers in the house. 

Again the total loss of state legislature districts will lock democrats mostly out of the bargaining process next time. 

Except that 2020 isn't important just for state legislatures, it's important for governorships. Get some Democrats elected as Governors and have them veto the gerrymanders - any resulting court-drawn map would be an improvement.

The other option is have a left-leaning Supreme Court (as of next year, hopefully) rule strongly against partisan gerrymandering.

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So maybe it's true that the Hillary campaign was willing to lose a battle to win the war.

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Kaine's over-aggressive style didn't make him look good on Tuesday, but Kaine didn't care. He was willing to take one for the team. Unlike Mike Pence, who resolutely refused to defend his boss, Kaine understood that the purpose of his debate wasn't to make Tim Kaine look good. It was to help Hillary Clinton win an election.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/10/tim-kaine-never-really-cared-about-winning-his-debate

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https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/america-age-uncertainty

Some interesting info on Trade, Immigration, and Trump supporters:

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Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants and refugees has most clearly struck a chord with his base. On each and every question concerning immigration, Trump’s core supporters are the least favorable. An overwhelming majority of core Trump supporters agree that immigration is a critical threat to the United States— almost double the percentage among the general public (43%, see Figure A). Six in ten Trump supporters believe that illegal immigrants in the United States should be forced to leave their jobs and the United States (63%). And nine in ten Trump supporters support expanding the wall on the border with Mexico (92%). The public overall is divided on expanding the wall, and 58 percent support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

 

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Concerns about immigration reinforce economic worries, which are also reflected in the views of core Trump supporters. Trump backers are the least likely to support globalization (Figure C) and to say that free trade has been good for the US economy, for consumers like them, or for their own standard of living. They are also least likely to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and the most likely to say the next generation of Americans will be economically worse off than adults today.

 

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45 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

So maybe it's true that the Hillary campaign was willing to lose a battle to win the war.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/10/tim-kaine-never-really-cared-about-winning-his-debate

Clinton's team had commercials on twitter within an hour.  At that point I went from being pissed at Kaine to shaking my head at yet another glorious trolling from the Clinton team.

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Upstate NY.  Plenty of signs for local, municipal candidates, few for one congressional representative.  A ton of "repeal the SAFE act" (NYs recent gun control legislation) but those are up year round. more Hillary than Trump signs, but the houses with Trump signs have like fifty of them and banners and giant 4x8 ft signs and their trucks are all decked out with flags.  A farm up the road has a truck with a Trump flag flying on the driver's side and a Confederate flag on the passenger side.  

 

Making America great one bigoted flag at a time!!!

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13 hours ago, Harakiri said:

I've only seen two obnoxious Trump signs. Well one is a sign the other is a flag. 

My first cousin (son of my mother's youngest sister) is flying trump flags from the aft of his big ass fishing boat.

:shocked:

That said I'd agree that I'm seeing less election signage than in previous years.

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