US Election 2016: the fall of the American republic

[ljkeane]

Thanks guys.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

I'm in line at my precinct waiting for voting to start.  The line is much much shorter than it was in 2008 or 2012.  We were lined up outside in 08 and 12 today it is 15 people waiting inside.

I've been the end of the line for 10 minutes now.

[Datepalm]

It's 6:45 AM over there, no? I'd be cutting people slack at this point.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If Kanye gets the Democrat nomination in 202 it means only 1 thing, Trump wins tomorrow and he'll be running for a second term without doubt. So, will you vote Trump over Kanye? It's possible that after 4 years of Trump you will decide he's not actually as bad as what you think he would be today, but do you think that is probable?

That's a real opportunity for a third party.

The line just grew to about 60 people.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

DP,

Well it is early but I get here at the same time every year.  The line is still shorter than in 08 and 12.

[DaveSumm]

1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

What sort of time do the key results tend to start coming in? Watching from the UK I'm thinking getting up early rather than staying up late in the way to go (plus I can watch some of the cricket in India as an added bonus).

I'm in the same boat, I've opted to get up early. It's frustrating because if Hillary walks it then it'll probably be in the bag by 3am GMT, which is when I plan to get up. But if it's close, those swing states get later and later. So I figure if I get up at 3 and Hillary's won it, I still get to watch the 'concession' speech (whether we'll be able to call it that, I'm not sure) even though I've missed the action. If Trump is still in the running, I don't miss the action. As best I can tell, it's very improbable that Trump could be strong favourite by 3am, either Hillary's won or it'll run through to 3-4-5am. I definitely can't face being hit with the news that Trump has won all in one go.

[Fez]

I put my predictions in the last thread, but I'm going to paste them again here to make sure people can see them and make fun of how wrong I'll inevitably turn out on some of it.

I'm about to head out to vote; figures it would be the first cold morning all season.

 

Quote

 

President

Clinton wins 335-203, with a popular vote margin of 50-45-3-1-1 (the last one being McMullin and various fringe candidates).

Clinton states I'm least confident in: North Carolina, Arizona, New Hampshire

Trump states I'm least confident in: Ohio, Georgia, Alaska

Possible dark horse surprises: Trump winning Michigan, Clinton winning South Carolina

Senate

Democrats take a 52-46 majority, with run-offs pending for Georgia and Louisiana. Republicans will be heavy favorites for both though, and the final result will be a Democratic majority of 52-48. Unless there's the dream scenario in Louisiana where Republicans split their vote so much that the run-off ends up being between the two Democrats. In which case it'd be 53-47.

Democratic wins I'm least confident in: New Hampshire, Missouri, North Carolina

Republican wins I'm least confident in: Indiana, Florida.

Thing is though, almost all the races are so damn close right now that almost anything could happen. Democrats look to have a clear path to 49 seats, and a lot of options to hit 50+, but no guarantees to get any of them. I'm leaning towards Democrats having the better night though just because of what I think happens at the Presidential level. Of the races that are at least a little competitive (or were earlier in the year) I'm sure that Republicans will hold Ohio and Arizona and Democrats will take Illinois, but that's about it. 

House

I don't follow individual races enough to make specific predictions, but I think Democrats net between 15-20 seats and Republicans end up holding a majority of around 230 to 205. If that's the result, I think its even money whether Paul Ryan keeps his Speakership. If Democrats do a bit better, get that margin down to 225 to 210 or better, I think Ryan's gone. 

Governors

I really haven't closely followed many of these races, but I think Democrats pick up North Carolina and Indiana and there's a good chance Republicans pick up Vermont (yeah, I know). Democrats look likely to hold Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. New Hampshire is a toss-up, but I think Democrats hold it based on Clinton winning the state.

State Legislatures

I think Democrats have a reasonably good night, based on how the rest of the races go, but not an overwhelming wave. The margin isn't big enough and too many states are gerrymandered. 

Possible Democratic takeovers: Alaska House, Arizona Senate, Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House, Nevada House and Senate, New Hampshire House and Senate, New Mexico House, Washington Senate.

Possible Republican takeovers: Iowa House, Kentucky House

Democrats have a lot more opportunities just because Republicans control so much more right now. I don't think Democrats take all those chambers, but they could in a good night. In a wave there's others that could flip too, but it doesn't look like a wave election.

 

 

[Datepalm]

Yeah, deliberating the late/early thing as well. I'm going to see how it's going in the evening and then decide.

[lokisnow]

Look at New Hampshire international folks, it will be one of the earlier smaller competitive states for polls to close and ballots counted and reported. If it is too close to call, all night will be a razors edge in all other states, if trump wins he has an excellent chance at winning overall, if Clinton wins she is low risk of losing overall.

new Hampshire is your bellweather this election. Also true in indicating the overall makeup of the senate.

Midway through the night the media will stop declaring states and everything will be toss up until polls close on the  west coast, once the polls close, lots of non west coast states will immediately be declared, and the election may have its outcome declared.

[James Arryn]

Based solely on Ditchville Notch and Scot's Line, I am predicting massively depressed turnout which favours one of the 2 candidates. 

[butterbumps!]

37 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I'm in line at my precinct waiting for voting to start.  The line is much much shorter than it was in 2008 or 2012.  We were lined up outside in 08 and 12 today it is 15 people waiting inside.

I've been the end of the line for 10 minutes now.

i got to my place at 6:05 (opened at 6); the line was already snaked down almost 3 flights of stairs by that point.  Took me about 40 minutes, and the line had grown exponentially by the time I was done.   Some of that might be because we don't have early voting.  walking over I was hit with some unexpected sentimentality over voting for the first lady pres.

also, Scott, I continue to feel like you and I must be the only ones who don't find Trump even one iota personable/ entertaining/ funny/ charismatic etc.  I have the exact reaction you do whenever this comes up.  

[The Marquis de Leech]

If Clinton loses New Hampshire, I think she loses Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ME-2, NE-2, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado would be close - and she'd need to win them all. 

[SeanF]

My guesses/predictions:-

Hilary Clinton wins the Presidency by 278 to 260 ECVs.  (Trump holds Romney's States, and gains Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Maine 2, although the margin of victory in both Florida and North Carolina will be under 1%).

The Senate splits 50/50.

The Republicans hold the House by 235 to 200.

[James Arryn]

7 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

i got to my place at 6:05 (opened at 6); the line was already snaked down almost 3 flights of stairs by that point.  Took me about 40 minutes, and the line had grown exponentially by the time I was done.   Some of that might be because we don't have early voting.  walking over I was hit with some unexpected sentimentality over voting for the first lady pres.

also, Scott, I continue to feel like you and I must be the only ones who don't find Trump even one iota personable/ entertaining/ funny/ charismatic etc.  I have the exact reaction you do whenever this comes up.  

I see zero appeal in Trump whatsoever. His 'charisma' is just a constant willingess to bluster. The closest to anything positive I feel for him is when I get so pissed at Americans for having him as a realistic option for leader that I semi-schadenfreude in a kind of 'well, you get what you deserve' way. It rarely lasts for more than 5 seconds, though.

[OldGimletEye]

Last week I was getting really paranoid that Chump might surge past Clinton. But, it seems things have stabilized and even reversed a bit. I'm cautiously optimistic that Chump will lose. Still can't wait until tomorrow when I know for certain that Chump has lost.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

OK, we've had four predictions so far:

• RBPL - Hillary 356 Trump 182
• Fez - Hillary 335 Trump 203
• Impmk2 - Hillary 307 Trump 231
• SeanF - Hillary 278 Trump 260.

[James Arryn]

1 minute ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

OK, we've had four predictions so far:

• RBPL - Hillary 356 Trump 182
• Fez - Hillary 335 Trump 203
• Impmk2 - Hillary 307 Trump 231
• SeanF - Hillary 278 Trump 260.

You missed mine! I had 'massively depressed' turnout favouring either Trump or Clinton. That said, that was before butterbumps' data was in; currently recalculating.

[SeanF]

12 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

If Clinton loses New Hampshire, I think she loses Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ME-2, NE-2, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado would be close - and she'd need to win them all. 

IMO, New Hampshire is the State next most likely to vote for Trump, after the ones I've listed.

[ljkeane]

8 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I see zero appeal in Trump whatsoever. His 'charisma' is just a constant willingess to bluster. 

Yeah, I really don't get why he's often described as charismatic. He's a not particularly good looking guy with a rubbish haircut who isn't very witty or erudite, doesn't come across as overly charming or personable and constantly has a smug look on his face while doing odd things with his hands. I genuinely don't see it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

22 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

i got to my place at 6:05 (opened at 6); the line was already snaked down almost 3 flights of stairs by that point.  Took me about 40 minutes, and the line had grown exponentially by the time I was done.   Some of that might be because we don't have early voting.  walking over I was hit with some unexpected sentimentality over voting for the first lady pres.

also, Scott, I continue to feel like you and I must be the only ones who don't find Trump even one iota personable/ entertaining/ funny/ charismatic etc.  I have the exact reaction you do whenever this comes up.  

Butterbumps,

I've disliked him as long as I've known who he is.  He comes across as incredibly crass and unpleasant.  I do not understand how anyone could describe him as in any way charismatic.  Is "Biff" from the "Back to the Future" series charismatic?