US Politics: Spicey Onion Indigestion in the Age of Trump

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

It works so well because the underlying idea is very simple and, in many cases, people can see the illegal immigrants for themselves.

Ok, this is an honest question.
Are there really many people in the US who want the jobs that are currently taken by illegal immigrants?
Alternatively, are people hoping that once the illegals are gone, their employers will be forced to create jobs with higher wages for natural-born citizens to take?

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

The same is true of outsourcing -- if you call tech support and eventually make it past the automation to somebody who speaks with such an accent that you can barely understand them, it becomes difficult to pretend that American jobs were not sent elsewhere.

Sure. The question is knowing how to bring them back. Or whether this is even realistically possible.

Funnily enough, although I don't take his chances of winning very seriously, the current socialist candidate for the French presidency has won his party's primaries (against all expectations) by saying that it's time to admit that automation and computerization, combined with globalization, have killed most industrial jobs in France for good. And given current projections for the future (with a loss of up to 50% more jobs in the next few decades or so), it's time to explore alternate solutions like part-time employment and the universal basic income.
Such ideas may sound utopian, but I'll trust this socialist guy over Trump's mumbo-jumbo any day.

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

A lot of people probably understand that they're being manipulated, but the only viable alternative is to be manipulated by somebody else.

Isn't the truth that many people simply find it easier to blame "others" ? That xenophobia is easier to conceptualize than pretty much anything else?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Let's take a look at the immigration freezr from a pragmatic point of view, does anyone have any estimates on how much money the US is wasted in detaining and deporting people who were already legal residents and who were absolutely no threat to the US?

[Rippounet]

This popped up in my FB feed today:
https://www.autostraddle.com/i-was-trained-for-the-culture-wars-in-home-school-awaiting-someone-like-mike-pence-as-a-messiah-367057/

Scary stuff, even if you don't take everything at face value. Some of it is definitely true at least.
Reminded me why I'm scared of all religious extremists.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Rippounet,

Don't paint with too broad a brush.  My kids are home schooled too.

[LongRider]

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Ok, this is an honest question.
Are there really many people in the US who want the jobs that are currently taken by illegal immigrants?
Alternatively, are people hoping that once the illegals are gone, their employers will be forced to create jobs with higher wages for natural-born citizens to take?~~~~snip~~~~

In my experience, many blue collar workers do believe this as they work side by side with immigrants, (legal and not legal) in many jobs.  My experience with this has been in casino gaming (Fillipino) and trucking (Mexican).  Because the immigrants many times have limited Engilsh skills, that tends to make them seem more 'foreign' and also, most workers don't trust management and so would feel that management would hire an immigrant or undocumented person to avoid paying a citizen higher wages.  Whether that is true or not really doesn't matter, perception is reality I guess.  With Fox News and talk radio pushing the 'the undocumented stole your job' all the time, the truth is difficult to winkle out or be believed.

[Rippounet]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Rippounet,

Don't paint with too broad a brush.  My kids are home schooled too.

Oh, don't worry, I was home schooled until 6. In California.

[LongRider]

13 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

This popped up in my FB feed today:
https://www.autostraddle.com/i-was-trained-for-the-culture-wars-in-home-school-awaiting-someone-like-mike-pence-as-a-messiah-367057/

Scary stuff, even if you don't take everything at face value. Some of it is definitely true at least.
Reminded me why I'm scared of all religious extremists.

Pence was chosen for a reason, and to get the Fundamental Xtians to vote for the ticket was the main reason in my view.  When I worked for an internet bookseller, I saw many home school textbooks.  They ran the gauntlet of high quality science based items to narrow religious books that denied science and taught lessons from a 'Christian' view including the 'Christian warrior' view. 

[Rippounet]

18 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

In my experience, many blue collar workers do believe this as they work side by side with immigrants, (legal and not illegal) in many jobs.  My experience with this has been in casino gaming (Fillipino) and trucking (Mexican).  Because the immigrants many times have limited Engilsh skills, that tends to make them seem more 'foreign' and also, most workers don't trust management and so would feel that management would hire an immigrant or illegal to avoid paying a citizen higher wages.  Whether that is true or not really doesn't matter, perception is reality I guess.  With Fox News and talk radio pushing the 'the illegals stole your job' all the time, the truth is difficult to winkle out or be believed.

I see, thanks for the answer. It does all make sense.

10 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Pence was chosen for a reason, and to get the Fundamental Xtians to vote for the ticket was the main reason in my view.  When I worked for an internet bookseller, I saw many home school textbooks.  They ran the gauntlet of high quality science based items to narrow religious books that denied science and taught lessons from a 'Christian' view including the 'Christian warrior' view. 

It's scary 'cause I'm watching "Designated survivor" these days. And Pence is "a heartbeat away from the presidency" now. So even if Trump somehow goes away, there's no guarantee that the US will be that much better off. 

[Altherion]

15 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Ok, this is an honest question.
Are there really many people in the US who want the jobs that are currently taken by illegal immigrants?
Alternatively, are people hoping that once the illegals are gone, their employers will be forced to create jobs with higher wages for natural-born citizens to take?

The latter. Few people want the jobs currently held by illegal immigrants with the compensation given to illegal immigrants, but they believe that the compensation is only so bad because of the illegality.

29 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Sure. The question is knowing how to bring them back. Or whether this is even realistically possible.

Funnily enough, although I don't take his chances of winning very seriously, the current socialist candidate for the French presidency has won his party's primaries (against all expectations) by saying that it's time to admit that automation and computerization, combined with globalization, have killed most industrial jobs in France for good. And given current projections for the future (with a loss of up to 50% more jobs in the next few decades or so), it's time to explore alternate solutions like part-time employment and the universal basic income.
Such ideas may sound utopian, but I'll trust this socialist guy over Trump's mumbo-jumbo any day.

I would be happy to see such ideas taken seriously, (even if they are not yet feasible), but they're basically a non-starter in the US. Maybe in a decade or so...

33 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Isn't the truth that many people simply find it easier to blame "others" ? That xenophobia is easier to conceptualize than pretty much anything else?

Yes, this is probably true to some extent.

[Fragile Bird]

44 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

I'm not convinced that Germany could get back Ramstein so easy. My understanding of the contracts that govern military bases are very complex and do not necessarily favor the host country.  So taking Ramstein back would be a Heculeian task no matter what Trump does. 

The point is, Trump has complained about the cost of bases (they have something like 800 around the world) and he wants to be closer to Putin. And Putin is trying to destroy the EU to make Europe weaker, running the same disinformation campaigns in Germany ahead of theircelection that the Russians ran in the US. What a fine gift Trump could give Putin, while at the same time pissing in Germany's face.

[LongRider]

3 hours ago, Altherion said:

The latter. Few people want the jobs currently held by illegal immigrants with the compensation given to illegal immigrants, but they believe that the compensation is only so bad because of the illegality.

I so disagree with this.  Not all undocumented persons pick lettuce as immigrants work in every profession and who can say if they are legal or not?  Do undocumented persons work some very low paying jobs, yes of course they do, but not all, such as truck driving or even dealing cards in a casino (which can pay well), are low paying jobs that citizens wouldn't want.  It's not just undocumented persons tho that are being singled out, it legal immigrants as well that are being picked on for 'taking our jobs.'

[LongRider]

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The point is, Trump has complained about the cost of bases (they have something like 800 around the world) and he wants to be closer to Putin. And Putin is trying to destroy the EU to make Europe weaker, running the same disinformation campaigns in Germany ahead of theircelection that the Russians ran in the US. What a fine gift Trump could give Putin, while at the same time pissing in Germany's face.

I see what you're saying, but I just don't see that being a scenario that would be easy for Trump to accomplish.  Doesn't mean he wouldn't try it tho.

[Mudguard]

5 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

The patent issue is a huge policy issue that doesn't get nearly enough attention, in my opinion. I don't think big pharma really needs 20 years or so of patent protection, though they will claim otherwise.

And really we shouldn't be blaming foreigners for own self-inflicted wounds.

I don't think it's realistic to shorten the patent term for big pharma patents.  Are you going to distinguish between big pharma patents and pharmaceutical startups patents or university pharmaceutical patents?  What about biotech patents?  Medical device patents?  What's an appropriate term if 20 years is too long?  How would you fairly determine such a term?  Why should a pharmaceutical patent be entitled to less patent term than an electronics or software patent?

As things stand, pharmaceutical patents, biotech patents, and medical device patents that cover products that have to get FDA approval to be sold are given a patent term extension of up to 5 years on top of the standard 20 year patent term due to the delays to market caused by the regulatory approval process.  In addition to the financial costs of R&D and conducting clinical trials to obtain FDA approval, the process takes a very long time.  By the time a drug or device is approved by the FDA, the 20 year term of the foundational patents is often greatly reduced.  I don't think getting rid of patent term extension or reducing the term by 5 years, which would generally be an even greater reduction in term than the patent term extension, is the answer.

[Dr. Pepper]

Polite request: Please don't call humans illegals.  Or aliens (not on this current page, but several posters love calling brown people who are not americans 'aliens).  Undocumented is a more appropriate term for immigrants who are in a particular country without having gone through the required procedures.  

[OldGimletEye]

7 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I don't think it's realistic to shorten the patent term for big pharma patents.  Are you going to distinguish between big pharma patents and pharmaceutical startups patents or university pharmaceutical patents?  What about biotech patents?  Medical device patents?  What's an appropriate term if 20 years is too long?  How would you fairly determine such a term?  Why should a pharmaceutical patent be entitled to less patent term than an electronics or software patent?

As things stand, pharmaceutical patents, biotech patents, and medical device patents that cover products that have to get FDA approval to be sold are given a patent term extension of up to 5 years on top of the standard 20 year patent term due to the delays to market caused by the regulatory approval process.  In addition to the financial costs of R&D and conducting clinical trials to obtain FDA approval, the process takes a very long time.  By the time a drug or device is approved by the FDA, the 20 year term of the foundational patents is often greatly reduced.  I don't think getting rid of patent term extension or reducing the term by 5 years, which would generally be an even greater reduction in term than the patent term extension, is the answer.

The simple answer: Patents are monopolies and big pharma charges monopoly prices and collects monopoly rents.

I think we should think about cutting patents significantly. I'm sure pharma will do just fine, just not as fine.

If there is a perception that we're not generating enough technological advancement in medicine, we can spend more on public research. That would probably end up being cheaper for everyone.

[Ran]

Rumors coalescing around Neil Gorsuch as being Trump's pick for SCOTUS nominee. In a review of leading candidates, Slate suggested Gorsuch might actually be the least objectionable -- definitely a conservative and originalist, but apparently much less partisan than Scalia.

(And for those keeping track, RoguePOTUSStaff claimed 3 hours ago that Gorsuch was the pick, after initially saying it was Hardiman... but after searching around I discovered that the first reports to this effect were 4 hours ago. Another example of reactive "prediction" from this account.)

[Corvinus85]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Polite request: Please don't call humans illegals.  Or aliens (not on this current page, but several posters love calling brown people who are not americans 'aliens).  Undocumented is a more appropriate term for immigrants who are in a particular country without having gone through the required procedures.  

Why are you dumping the term "illegal" together with the term "alien"? The term "alien" is written in US laws.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Thanks @Rippounet. Frankly that sounds pretty bleak to me. Is it all but guaranteed that France will pull out of the EU if Le Pen wins? If so, is the EU effectively finished? 

[mormont]

Amateur psychology hat on:

One big reason why complaining about immigrants is a good political tactic is to do with a phrase I've seen Trump supporters on the board use a few times in different contexts: 'zero sum game'. Zero sum games are a thing that exists, of course. The key point here is that they're extremely easy for people not only to understand, but to relate to their lived experience. If you have a job, I (or my kid or my neighbour) can't have that job. That's obvious.

It's not wrong, either, but it's not the whole story, because the labour market isn't a zero-sum game. It's more complicated than that, and employment can produce more employment and so on. But that's an argument that requires more abstract thinking and many people don't do a lot of abstract thinking in their everyday lives. They're certainly capable of it, but it doesn't resonate with them the way concrete thinking and analogies with their everyday lives do. It doesn't 'feel right'. Viewing employment as zero-sum does.

Similar examples can be found right across the type of platform Trump stood on. Tax and spending, for example: how many times have you heard right-wingers talk about those subjects as if the nation was just like a household or a small business? It's obvious, right? If you spend a dollar on something, it's gone. You can't spend it on something else. Or trade deals. If they're winning, we must be losing, right?

Most obviously, it explains the appeal of Trump-the-successful-businessman: that relies on the idea that running the government is like running a business, which is an appealing concrete analogy. They're both big complicated organisations, right? The problem, of course, is that they're not alike at all, especially if, like Trump, all of your business experience is in businesses where you were the sole owner and had unchallenged authority, and a safety net if they failed.

Anyway, that's a hopelessly oversimplified and short version of what I'm trying to say, but the main point is this. Trump's arguments appeal because they are of this type. Again, I stress that it's not that his voters don't understand the abstract arguments - it's that they're going with their gut.

[Dr. Pepper]

1 minute ago, Corvinus said:

Why are you dumping the term "illegal" together with the term "alien"? The term "alien" is written in US laws.

And?  Lots of bad language is built into law.  It doesn't make using that language correct.  Oriental and Negro were still in use in some federal laws until very recently.   Illegals and aliens are slurs.