U.S. Politics: Gunnin' From The Long Arm of the Law

[Fez]

12 hours ago, Let's Get Kraken said:

Mitt Romney running for Senate, Ben Sasse visiting Iowa, Jeff Flake branding himself #RepublicanClassic. Long odds, I know, but what do we think the chances are one of these guys actually challenges Trump in 2020? It has happened before, and Mitt Romney really wants to be President...

Jeff Flake lacks charisma, and made the cardinal sin of straight up donating money and endorsing a Democrat (Doug Jones in the Alabama senate race); which he'll never recover from no matter what.

Romney isn't going to be a sacrificial lion when Evan McMullins is still sitting there as the anti-Trump Mormon option who already ran once, proving he'll take the hit.

Sasse has proven over and over he's all talk and no action (even moreso than Flake); but maybe.

I still think the best bet to pull a 1980 Ted Kennedy is John Kasich, and good luck to him. However, I don't think he has any shot at upsetting Trump unless there's a major recession (also if Trump is weak enough to actually lose the nomination, I think Pence runs as well); and there's a still a chance he tries an independent, bipartisan presidential run that may hurt the Dem nominee more than Trump

[Ice Queen]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Jeff Flake lacks charisma, and made the cardinal sin of straight up donating money and endorsing a Democrat (Doug Jones in the Alabama senate race); which he'll never recover from no matter what.

Romney isn't going to be a sacrificial lion when Evan McMullins is still sitting there as the anti-Trump Mormon option who already ran once, proving he'll take the hit.

Sasse has proven over and over he's all talk and no action (even moreso than Flake); but maybe.

I still think the best bet to pull a 1980 Ted Kennedy is John Kasich, and good luck to him. However, I don't think he has any shot at upsetting Trump unless there's a major recession (also if Trump is weak enough to actually lose the nomination, I think Pence runs as well); and there's a still a chance he tries an independent, bipartisan presidential run that may hurt the Dem nominee more than Trump

Just because Kasich makes sense from time to time doesn't make him any less of an awful human being, and Mittwit just accepted Trump's endorsement. 

[LongRider]

10 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Just because Kasich makes sense from time to time doesn't make him any less of an awful human being, and Mittwit just accepted Trump's endorsement. 

He is as dull as dishwater too, can't see him being able to fire up the base, which is also how I see Mittens, the also ran.

[Fez]

15 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Just because Kasich makes sense from time to time doesn't make him any less of an awful human being, and Mittwit just accepted Trump's endorsement. 

I never said I'd support Kasich; just that he's been consistently the most vocal anti-Trump Republican and, as far I know, the only one who's publicly said he's thinking about running in 2020. And he gets a bigger media platform than the others because the media loves the idea of a unity ticket (even though him trying that is a longshot even for him).

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Let's Get Kraken said:

Centrists and middle-left people might kinda sorta like Kasich, but 2020 is not going to be a centrist fight. If you wanna break Trump's base, IMO you need to go after evangelicals.

I think that an actual evangelical like Huckabee would do much better than a Mormon.  The Mormon + evangelical alliance in 2012 was always a bit uneasy, and it's why Santorum was able to stick around as long as he did in the 2012 primary.

Quote

And remember, say what you want about Mormons, they were the one evangelical group that dropped Trump like the radioactive hot potato that he is on election day.

Uhh?  What?  No they didn't.  I mean, I guess I can give them some credit for being anti-Trump in the primary, but in the general election they supported Trump over Clinton by 61/25.  While that's lower than Romney's 78/21 split, it's hardly "Dropping Trump like a Radioactive potato".

[Ice Queen]

38 minutes ago, Fez said:

I never said I'd support Kasich; just that he's been consistently the most vocal anti-Trump Republican and, as far I know, the only one who's publicly said he's thinking about running in 2020. And he gets a bigger media platform than the others because the media loves the idea of a unity ticket (even though him trying that is a longshot even for him).

Sorry, didn't mean to imply that you would. I see people getting excited about Kasich because he was the only grown-up in the room during the last cycle. Compared to Trump, he's a nice guy...except he isn't a nice guy. He's still a Tea Party idiot and the lesser of two evils is still evil. 

He's already ruled out a unity ticket with Hickenlooper. It's not going to happen. 

[S John]

Trump's base hates Romney and Kasich almost as much as they hate actual liberals.  I don't think either of them has a realistic chance at taking the 2020 R nomination.  Maybe could win as an independent, but I doubt it.  Trump's base will go down w/ the ship and Dem's probably won't flock from their candidate to an Independent Kasich or Romney.  Sane Republicans isn't a large enough niche as a base for carrying the entire country.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, S John said:

Trump's base hates Romney and Kasich almost as much as they hate actual liberals.  I don't think either of them has a realistic chance at taking the 2020 R nomination.  Maybe could win as an independent, but I doubt it.  Trump's base will go down w/ the ship and Dem's probably won't flock from their candidate to an Independent Kasich or Romney.  Sane Republicans isn't a large enough niche as a base for carrying the entire country.

Barring something really unlikely happening, there is no way that Trump can lose a Republican primary.  The only question is whether some NeverTrump Republican will challenge him anyway and potentially leave him damaged for the general.  I think that a firebrand evangelical with a campaign slogan like "soft on Russia, hard for pornstars" could do real damage. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, Yukle said:

I think everyone is.

I really wish there was somebody in the IRS who was happy to take the fall and leak Trump's returns. Or someone who was willing to pay for the legal fees of somebody who does. Or someone who is happy to pay for the relocation to a safe haven for someone who does.

Whatever it takes. Trump is hiding them, therefore we need to see them. Might as well take Kushner's, too.

It’s not possible, at least not at this point. The president’s tax returns, both current and past, are sealed and are incredibly difficult to access. They could have done it during the campaign, but I don’t think it’s possible now unless the head of the IRS does it.

[Maithanet]

Probably an outlier rather than a trend, but Quinnipiac had a great +15 result for Dems in their latest generic congressional Ballot.

That's not quite the best ever result from Quinnipiac, but it's well above average for the past year. 

[Yukle]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It’s not possible, at least not at this point. The president’s tax returns, both current and past, are sealed and are incredibly difficult to access. They could have done it during the campaign, but I don’t think it’s possible now unless the head of the IRS does it.

Oh? How come? Just due to high profile files probably being kept in tighter security?

Also, everyone has a price. Let's say we start a campaign to surreptitiously raise $1,000,000,000 to give to the IRS to look the other way.  

[mormont]

3 hours ago, Let's Get Kraken said:

Oh I agree, that would never happen. At least, barring some significant bombshell that changes the odds like a pee tape surfacing (making it more likely) or another major terrorist attack happening on U.S. soil (making it much, much less likely). They would have to run as a Libertarian (which I could see Flake doing), or pull a Teddy Roosevelt and start a new party just for the purpose of challenging Trump.

At this point in time, I'm not sure I believe a pee tape would be a bombshell for Trump. His personal conduct is already so bad that most, if not all, of the damage that would do is already factored in, or at least, that's the impression I get.

The sex scandal that would really damage Trump would be if Melania was proven to be cheating on him.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Probably an outlier rather than a trend, but Quinnipiac had a great +15 result for Dems in their latest generic congressional Ballot.

That's not quite the best ever result from Quinnipiac, but it's well above average for the past year. 

Q-polls have been more favorable than most others post-2016; doesn't mean they're wrong, but they are an outlier.

On the other hand, it is another point in a trend showing things ticking back towards Democrats. The RCP average has moved from +6.6 to +7.6 for Democrats over the past three weeks; which isn't a huge amount, but is certainly better than the +12.8 to +6.6 decline that occurred over January. It's also getting closer, though not quite all the way yet, to where things were for most of 2017 before Republican support collapsed in December.

Trump's job approval may be ticking back down again too, but there's too few recent data points to be sure. Gallup has gone from -17 to -22 over the past week though, and even Ras has gone from -1 to -7.

I really hope January, with the afterglow of Christmas and the tax cuts, was the high water mark for Republicans; but there's a lot of time left until the midterms.

[The Anti-Targ]

23 minutes ago, mormont said:

At this point in time, I'm not sure I believe a pee tape would be a bombshell for Trump. His personal conduct is already so bad that most, if not all, of the damage that would do is already factored in, or at least, that's the impression I get.

The sex scandal that would really damage Trump would be if Melania was proven to be cheating on him.

Only if she was cheating on him with Dianne Feinstein or Nancy Pelosi. If it was with a rich Republican man I think shoulders would be shrugged.

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Only if she was cheating on him with Dianne Feinstein or Nancy Pelosi. If it was with a rich Republican man I think shoulders would be shrugged.

I think proof that Trump was a beta cuck would hurt his image among his supporters. It's almost the only thing that would.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, mormont said:

I don't know.

Trump has never successfully sold his story to as many people as Obama did his. His approval is both less widespread in the population at large, and more limited to particular groups within that population. Trump is less handicapped by things like telling the truth, but still less effective an orator than Obama IMO. 

You're right to say that Obama was able to sell his story to a larger audience than Trump, but I'm not sure he did it more effectively in the sense that he created as a deep an emotional connection as Trump did. Obama appealed to people's intellect and aspirations. Trump appealed to people's anger, fear and in securities. Given that negative emotions are stronger than positive ones, I think Trump has been an extremely effective orator, if you consider who he is targeting. He could never get as many people to support him as Obama could, but he got the people he needed to support him to buy in 100%. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Yukle said:

Oh? How come? Just due to high profile files probably being kept in tighter security?

Also, everyone has a price. Let's say we start a campaign to surreptitiously raise $1,000,000,000 to give to the IRS to look the other way.  

Lol, to the second part.

Forgive me for not having the exact details. I was listening to a NPR podcast after the election and they were talking about how Trump's taxes could theoretically be leaked. The former IRS agent broke it down something like this: when you're a major national figure, your files become harder to access, when you're an elected official, they become even harder to get, and the president's are all but impossible to get. As for Trump's taxes, I believe the built a special safe just for his alone. 

If you want Trump's taxes, your best bet would be trying to get his New York state taxes. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Say it ain't so!:

Quote

U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law is one of many White House staff officials who could see their security clearances revoked.

In an effort to avoid another Rob Porter situation, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly announced Friday that he was strengthening the process for White House aides to receive security clearance.

Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is one dozens of staffers who have yet to receive approval for permanent status a year since Trump took office.

The Washington Post was recently told by two U.S. officials that they don’t think Kushner will receive clearance anytime soon.

The paper reported Saturday that Kushner requests more classified documents than almost anyone on Trump’s staff.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4032224/jared-kushner-could-lose-security-clearance/

How's Jared suppose to foster peace in the Middle East, improve relations with Canada, Mexico and China and beat up Godzilla if he can't get a security clearance? 

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Say it ain't so!:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4032224/jared-kushner-could-lose-security-clearance/

How's Jared suppose to foster peace in the Middle East, improve relations with Canada, Mexico and China and beat up Godzilla if he can't get a security clearance? 

Don't forget AIDS.

[Zorral]

You all are kinda confused about the pee B/whiz: it was prostitute peeing on the bed where Obama slept on a presidential visit, not the orange floater getting peed on by the prostitute -- that is who the orange floater is. He thinks prossies paid to pee on Obama's bed makes him a big big big bigly man.  I have thrown up, yet again, thinking that this guy is supposed to be potus.