Meanwhile back at the Wall

[Azarial]

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The passage you quoted - which happens to be one of my absolute fave in the whole series - is one of many 'lines' that split the fandom clear in two IMO. 

Usually those who consider this to be (one of) the moment(s) Jon broke his oath/committed treason for Arya are the ones who support the strictest adherence to vows and oaths, no matter what. 

The other camp, where I have both my feet firmly planted, thinks things can't be that rigid. Sometimes doing the right thing and doing the lawful thing aren't the same. Martin even makes a point of spelling it out for us. "If the 8-yr-old King tells you to saddle the horse, do it. If he asks you to kill the horse, come to me" (paraprasing). 

The passage you quote is Jon choosing love, choosing honour over duty. And that is fucking spot on in my book. 

That's interesting, as I see him as choosing duty and forsaking his honor, as his mere presence puts the nights watch in danger so to do his duty and protect his men he had to forsake his honor. Not unlike what Ned did in book one, but Jon was trying to save an organization he believed in by doing something that would be viewed as treason instead of a daughter. But, like you I am firmly in the things shouldn't be that rigid camp. (And think Jon is biased, as we are shown that people have a right to a trial of some sort, and he was defending against some false charges, and defending his men from an unjustified attack so I think he was justified in his actions, and not guilty of treason since it was the Bolton's who broke the neutrality first. -- or Mance and Mel, but they were never neutral.) And I love that Jamie quote.

[WildlingWitch]

Ain't that the way I go to bed and the thread comes to life

5 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

 

By the way, not all of the criticisms of Jon is based on hate.  There are very, very good reasons to criticize Jon.  It's not bashing, it's criticism that is deserved.  Okay? 

 

I know not all criticisms of Jon are based on hate I criticize his character all the time I believe that's something that GRRM wants us to do with his characters. Criticism is fine, bald faced lies designed to bash a specific character is not fine.

Saying something like 'Mance left for Winterfell because Jon told him to' and then backing it up with 'OMG Jon just sucks' is not criticism.

If Mance was acting under Jon’s orders then he would have gone to the lake, found the girl that Melisandre believed was Arya and brought her back to the Watch because that is where Jon believed Mance was.

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“How many with her?” He moved to his basin, splashed water on his face. Gods, but he was tired.

“None, m’lord. She come alone. Her horse was dying under her. All skin and ribs it was, lame and

lathered. They cut it loose and took the girl for questioning.”

A grey girl on a dying horse. Melisandre’s fires had not lied, it would seem. But what had become of Mance Rayder and his spearwives? “Where is the girl now?”

 

 

 

 

On his way to meet with FArya he sees Melisandre and begins to think

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Does she never sleep? What game are you playing, priestess? Did you have some other task for Mance?

 

 

And this isn’t the last time he thinks that either

 

 

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“Daggers in the dark. I know. You will forgive my doubts, my lady. A grey girl on a dying horse,

 

fleeing from a marriage, that was what you said.”

“I was not wrong.”

“You were not right. Alys is not Arya.”

“The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All

mortals err.”

“Even lord commanders.” Mance Rayder and his spearwives had not returned, and Jon could not help but wonder whether the red woman had lied of a purpose. Is she playing her own game?

 

 

 

 

 

Jon doesn’t realize that Mance is at Winterfell until he receives the pink letter informing him that Mance was Ramsey’s prisoner.

 

[WildlingWitch]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

However, the OP asks us not to litigate the past, but to divine the future.  And whatever Bowen Marsh's justifications for his attack on Jon, I think he has attacked before he was ready, and doesn't have a follow-up plan in place.  as such, the combination of the wildlings present and Melisandre and Selyse's 50 men will probably keep the Night's Watch in the hands of Jon's allies.  And given the nature of the weapons used (daggers), and the likelihood of Jon wearing think, protective clothing, such as a winter coat, and a leather jack, or even real mail, mean that his possibility of survival is quite high.

Yeah I agree I don't think Bowen has as many men on his side as he thinks. Or maybe he knows that nobody will agree with him but because he believes what he's doing is right he decided that his final act will be taking down the LC.

Jon has mentioned that the Queens guards are really Melisandre's men and Melisandre has chosen Jon and Stannis as her special boys so I this she'll remain loyal to him for now and order her men to fight Bowen and his men.

Even though Jon and Selyse don't see eye to eye I don't believe that she would want to be taken prisoner  by a known Psychopath that gets off on torturing people so what little men she does command would be against Bowen.

I think enough of the Wildlings respect Jon enough to fight for him. A few of the Free Folk have taken the Black already and Tormund, Val and Morna who are all considered Wildling leaders in some way are on Jon's side.

This is all of cause if Jon's stabbing had anything to do with the Pink letter at all. I would love to see the confusion on these threads if it's revealed that Bowen and his men staabbed Jon for some reason that we had never even considered.  

[Azarial]

15 hours ago, WildlingWitch said:

Yeah I agree I don't think Bowen has as many men on his side as he thinks. Or maybe he knows that nobody will agree with him but because he believes what he's doing is right he decided that his final act will be taking down the LC.

Jon has mentioned that the Queens guards are really Melisandre's men and Melisandre has chosen Jon and Stannis as her special boys so I this she'll remain loyal to him for now and order her men to fight Bowen and his men.

Even though Jon and Selyse don't see eye to eye I don't believe that she would want to be taken prisoner  by a known Psychopath that gets off on torturing people so what little men she does command would be against Bowen.

I think enough of the Wildlings respect Jon enough to fight for him. A few of the Free Folk have taken the Black already and Tormund, Val and Morna who are all considered Wildling leaders in some way are on Jon's side.

This is all of cause if Jon's stabbing had anything to do with the Pink letter at all. I would love to see the confusion on these threads if it's revealed that Bowen and his men staabbed Jon for some reason that we had never even considered.  

That's why I love this thread. I think GRRM wrote Jon's chapters so that the casual reader will think he ran off to save his sister (I waited for Dance to come out then read the whole series very quickly the first time, and I thought this at first, I am also ashamed to admit I missed all the clues to him not staying dead --or not really being dead as I now believe Ghost is keeping him alive just like was shown to us with Bran and Summer, and the last kiss will just accelerate healing or boost his fire magic in some way as we saw with Victarion and Maqoro(sp)-- and was very angry about my favorite character dying, then again I missed RLJ too and honestly thought he was Neds, I'm not a good first reader lol) Thankfully I've read the series six times now, and Jons chapters seven and am not as naive as I was.

The second read, most should realize that he knows that no one has his sister and should then begin to question what is really going on. That is where the hidden room, and the threats by Allister start to come into play. And the last supper vibe where Mully eats or Whick (I believe, it was one of those two) and the Septon just had a drink but Bowen didn't do either showing that even they aren't as united as you may suspect based on their actions later. I do think Martin was inspired by the stabbing of Caesar and the men who did that believed that they would be hailed as hero's but were shunned by the common people. So I agree that Bowen and co. may simply have overestimated their support by the men of the watch since they honestly think the free folk are not part of the realms of men, and that helping them instead of barring the gates is wrong and assume everyone else must feel the same and will thank them.

The other thing I notice now, that can be missed on early reads is the strange wording of the pink letter. As knowing who wrote it and why will tell us much as well. I love the theory that Mance locked Ramsey in the crypts with his dogs to be eaten alive for what he did to fArya then turned the dogs into a cloak. And used the ruby to pretend to be him after. So cage=glamor and cloak of the whores, is a dog skin cloak. I also want to believe that Mance went to Winterfell to rally the North, not to betray Jon because he knows Jon saved his child, and fought to save his life hence the window comment, and the false King comment in the letter. A phrase that was used by Mel in her meeting with Jon and Mance, when no one else was present. Adding to this is the fact that the letter does seem like him dropping hints for Jon to figure out, like he did when disguised as Rattleshirt. But Jon is far to distracted to pick up on something that subtle, and simply not used to trickery and deception, or even codes. Ned just never operated this way, and thus never taught his kids to do this either. Jon least of all, given that Cat was aware of these things but had no interaction with Jon. (Imagine the forums reaction if Mance took Winterfell for Jon, thus making his release a good thing in the end hehe) Likely wishful thinking on my part, but hey gotta have hope. Besides, Osha made it sound like Mance needed a Stark. So maybe he knows something about why there must always be a Stark in Winterfell and is trying to get Jon there for some reason readers don't know yet. 

The phrase 'then the Northmen descended' as Jon 'died' also gives us lots to debate over. What Northmen? the Free Folk who weren't in the shield hall? the free folk from the shield hall wondering why the beer never arrived? the Hill Tribes? Men rounded up by Tycho, that decided to come to the wall with fArya instead of dying with Stannis? Lady Stoneheart and her band? Ramsey? (I think Ramsey is what we are supposed to think, to leave us really concerned, thus find it the least likely.) Any of the other options are good news for Jon, bad news for Bowen and co.

If it were the Hill tribes, they would get the Nights Watch men in hand easily. They are skilled warriors, as we saw when some of them were fighting with Stannis against the Iron Born, and the Nights Watch is old men, green boys, and most used to be peasants whose only arms training was by the inept Thorne. Same goes for the men following Tycho and fArya.

Free Folk, same thing. They may not be good against an army like Stannis's, but a confused rabble in hand to hand combat? We saw what a good fighter Mance was, Leathers was skilled enough that Jon made him Master of arms, so they can fight and have the numbers advantage. They pledged loyalty to Jon as they came through the wall, and any who saw what happened saw him get stabbed while defending a giant. And they are quite happy to fight against the watch. I don't think Jon would think of them as Northmen though.

The second least likely (but most fun option) Lady Stoneheart, skilled knights and misc. warriors who have been doing gorilla warfare for a couple years, lead by a horrifying Zombie monster come to get the man her son named as his heir, making him their King so he can help them kill off the rest of the Freys and Boltons. Umm I see this being the worst option for Bowen and co. The fear factor, combined with the skill discrepancy is just to much. That and the fact that they were last seen in the Riverlands/neck and Cat hates Jon makes this seem very unlikely. But, I do like the idea of her being Stone, and the Magic that was in Berric, being passed to her, then passed to Jon feels more true to GRRM's low magic style than having multiple resurrected people running around at the same time, and she did have the will and crown, and the timeline is a mess so I won't rule it out. It would also be passed to three people, putting an odd twist on the three heads thing.

The flip side is Ramsey won, and made it to the wall. This would be a war against his and Bowen's men vs. Free Folk and Jon's men. This could be disastrous, possibly end in the wall being left unmanned, or close to. Maybe it would be taken by the Weepers men in the end. Even Mance thought that the weeper leading would be a very bad thing for all involved. 

I hope it's the hill tribes, and or Tycho. As to me they seem the most likely way to have the watch not be destroyed, and for the free folk to be able to stay south of the wall. They are also both either close at hand or on their way already, making them the most plausible people for Jon to have referred to a 'the Northmen."

[Tagganaro]

22 hours ago, Azarial said:

I need to re-read the section where Jon and Stannis make a deal again. Was it that Jon got the lives of the Free Folk, and got to use them to man the wall, but they were still Stannis's prisoners? or are they Jons men 100%. I thought it was that Jon got to use them, and Stannis got willing soldiers not slave soldiers (essentially) but that they were still Stannis's. But, could be wrong, a small difference in the wording will matter. I thought they were still prisoners, unless they agreed to take the black based on how Mance describes them as penned up in Moles town. And that means Mel, as Stannis's second in command can request to have some brought to her and that it's not really up to Jon.

I think this is largely semantics, because for all practical purposes Jon is the "king" while Stannis is on his Northern campaign.  It seems as if the wildlings are Jon's 100%, it wouldn't really make sense if they weren't since they could then disobey/rebel/abandon the Wall at their own leisure and claim Stannis's protection.  And we see from Mel's perspective that she really has no power at the Wall without Stannis and his army there...that's why she's so desperate to win Jon's approval and I think she even mentions having "danced the same dance with Stannis" and winning him over when she begins to work on winning Jon over.

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But, either way Jon worries about where Mance is, and didn't send anyone to Winterfell so the end result is the same. I just got the impression from the Mel/Mance conversation that Jon didn't have a say, he was allowed to know as a form of manipulation to gain his trust nothing more. 

I know that he threatened to behead Rattleshirt if he tried to leave without his permission. But Stannis had given him Rattleshirt, so he was his to command or execute. But once it was revealed that he was Mance, and Mance is not who Stannis gave him, what Jon is able to do becomes murky. The other issue is that Jon thinks he would be more valuable alive, because he has the most info on the real enemy. What makes me think he has no say is this:

She is offering this as a gift, not asking permission. She essentially says we will save her for you, and take all responsibility. Sure Jon could have said no, but they would have done it anyway. That was the whole point of Mance telling him his guards were a bad jape, if getting to Jon would be easy escaping a castle with no walls is a joke. But in the end it's semantics. Jon accepted the gift, but it was Mel and Mance who are responsible for the mission. I think we can all agree on that  

 

Jon definitely has a say, because again Mel is doing this for Jon's benefit in order to win Jon's trust.  If Jon says "No, I won't allow this" and seizes Mance he could 100% kill Mance if he wanted to.  He might have to deal with Stannis later on but that's doubtful.  Look, Stannis gave Jon "Rattleshirt" who ended up being Mance.  Either way, that doesn't change that he is Jon's to deal with as he sees fit.  Either Stannis is unaware that "Rattleshirt" is actually Mance and Mel deceived Stannis, which would make Stannis happy that Jon then killed Mance since that's what Stannis wanted to do anyway.  Or Mance is already aware that "Rattleshirt" is actually Mance and he gave him to Jon anyway, meaning he was Jon's to command as he sees fit.

Even if Jon says "no I don't want you to do this" and doesn't seize Mance, why would Mel go ahead with this?  Again, this is a gift for Jon's benefit, Mel is not gonna risk his wrath since she needs his approval.

[Moiraine Sedai]

17 hours ago, WildlingWitch said:

Ain't that the way I go to bed and the thread comes to life

I know not all criticisms of Jon are based on hate I criticize his character all the time I believe that's something that GRRM wants us to do with his characters. Criticism is fine, bald faced lies designed to bash a specific character is not fine.

Saying something like 'Mance left for Winterfell because Jon told him to' and then backing it up with 'OMG Jon just sucks' is not criticism.

If Mance was acting under Jon’s orders then he would have gone to the lake, found the girl that Melisandre believed was Arya and brought her back to the Watch because that is where Jon believed Mance was.

 

 

 

On his way to meet with FArya he sees Melisandre and begins to think

 

 

And this isn’t the last time he thinks that either

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jon doesn’t realize that Mance is at Winterfell until he receives the pink letter informing him that Mance was Ramsey’s prisoner.

 

Mance left Castle Black to find Arya and bring her to the wall because Jon told him to.  That is very inappropriate for a Lord commander to do.  Or do you think Jon was going to return her to Ramsay.  We both know, Jon's intent was to get her away from the Boltons.  That on it's own is not acceptable actions for a Lord commander.

It cannot be denied that Mance is acting under Jon's orders.  He did exactly what Jon told him to do, "rescue" his sister.  Mance did exactly that.  Mance didn't risk his life just for giggles.  He went to get Arya because Jon told him to.  So even if Jon didn't specifically say, "go to Winterfell and get horsey face," Jon still told Mance to get his sister, and he never specifically said, "under no circumstances are you to kill anybody in the process, you are not to go to Winterfell.".  Jon had to have realized that it may come down to Winterfell, that is why all the trouble with the spearwives.  Jon sent Mance on his mission, Jon is guilty of treason.  Jon never said, "only get her if she's at long lake and don't do anything illegal.". The whole mission was illegal.  It was stupid and ignored the larger picture.  

[Tagganaro]

48 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

It cannot be denied that Mance is acting under Jon's orders.  He did exactly what Jon told him to do, "rescue" his sister.  Mance did exactly that.  Mance didn't risk his life just for giggles.  He went to get Arya because Jon told him to.  So even if Jon didn't specifically say, "go to Winterfell and get horsey face," Jon still told Mance to get his sister, and he never specifically said, "under no circumstances are you to kill anybody in the process, you are not to go to Winterfell.". 

It can be denied.  In fact it should be denied.  Jon told Mance to go to Longlake and rescue a girl on a dying horse.  Mance clearly did not do that.  That is disobeying Jon's orders, quite simply.

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Jon had to have realized that it may come down to Winterfell, that is why all the trouble with the spearwives. 

Jon did not have to realize and he didn't realize this.  We have his own thoughts on the matter.  He wonders where Mance is and why he didn't return with Alys.  He does not once think, "oh damn, Mance must be heading to Winterfell" since that was not remotely what Jon ordered him to do.  He in fact thinks the opposite "what is Mance doing, where did Melisandre send him to."

That is not "why all the trouble with the spearwives."  Mance tells Jon two things- he needs the spearwives so "Arya" will trust him and that he intends to carry out a "certain ploy" separate from the rescue mission.  Jon deserves a heck of a lot of blame for not following up on this remark and questioning what the ploy is.

We have no idea why Mance went to Winterfell and what he is doing there, but it likely has little to do with Arya and more to do with whatever "ploy" he was talking about.

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 It was stupid and ignored the larger picture.  

What is the "larger picture?"

[Azarial]

1 minute ago, Tagganaro said:

I think this is largely semantics, because for all practical purposes Jon is the "king" while Stannis is on his Northern campaign.  It seems as if the wildlings are Jon's 100%, it wouldn't really make sense if they weren't since they could then disobey/rebel/abandon the Wall at their own leisure and claim Stannis's protection. 

That's fair, but it may make a difference in Jon's reaction to the request. The Free folk seeing Jon as 100% in charge, and Jon seeing them as his charges, but ultimately Stannis's could impact how he reacts to requests from Melisandre. And I honestly don't remember how it was left, or even if it was made clear.

1 minute ago, Tagganaro said:

And we see from Mel's perspective that she really has no power at the Wall without Stannis and his army there...that's why she's so desperate to win Jon's approval and I think she even mentions having "danced the same dance with Stannis" and winning him over when she begins to work on winning Jon over.

Jon definitely has a say, because again Mel is doing this for Jon's benefit in order to win Jon's trust.  If Jon says "No, I won't allow this" and seizes Mance he could 100% kill Mance if he wanted to.  He might have to deal with Stannis later on but that's doubtful.  Look, Stannis gave Jon "Rattleshirt" who ended up being Mance.  Either way, that doesn't change that he is Jon's to deal with as he sees fit.  Either Stannis is unaware that "Rattleshirt" is actually Mance and Mel deceived Stannis, which would make Stannis happy that Jon then killed Mance since that's what Stannis wanted to do anyway.  Or Mance is already aware that "Rattleshirt" is actually Mance and he gave him to Jon anyway, meaning he was Jon's to command as he sees fit.

Even if Jon says "no I don't want you to do this" and doesn't seize Mance, why would Mel go ahead with this?  Again, this is a gift for Jon's benefit, Mel is not gonna risk his wrath since she needs his approval.

If Jon says no, but keeps Mance alive as Rattleshirt so that he can use him as source of information (since we know he never wanted him executed, as Jon thought he was more valuable alive) Mel could assume he said no because of his honor and would be happy if it were done by someone else, so that he bore no responsibility. Besides, she has never cared about permission, if she did Mance would be dead. She didn't have Stannis's permission to save him, she did that because she saw a use for him. She never worried about his wrath, and he has more value to her than Jon, and is in a greater position to take his wrath out by banishing her. She cares about getting Jon to trust in her abilities. I believe asking permission was for show. If he says no, and then the rescue mission works he won't be mad, he'll be relieved that she is safe so what wrath is she risking? And she believes in her abilities enough to take that chance. They were talking like the plan was final before she ever went to Jon, and she timed it all to line up with the heads arriving, and getting the wall to melt, then she removed the glamore. That is what she means by the dance. She is putting on a show to win his trust in her magic, and the best way to do that in her mind is to save the girl. Him saying no won't stop her. And if he killed Mance she would just find another way. Stannis left her a few men she could use. Or if the other Free folk are Stannis's she could just use a few of them instead. 

So he could have killed Mance, okay. But we already know he thinks killing him was a mistake and that Stannis was rigid to the point of being foolish. And as the Lord Commander he can pardon Mance, or take him prisoner instead of killing him. He couldn't before because Mance was Stannis's prisoner not his. But he is back, he hasn't run away since being back. He did help fight the true enemy and guard the realms of men better than most men who stayed at the wall and Jon knows this. He knows more about the true enemy than anyone else. If he kills him he loses that information. If any of the Free folk find out he killed him, he could lose their trust too. But, as long as Mance is Mel's slave she will use him to win Jon's trust, she tells Jon she can tell he will be loyal because of the ruby and the fact that they have his baby, but he doesn't know it makes him a slave. He doesn't know the risk of leaving him alive and glamored, so he has more reasons not to kill him than to kill him. Just like she has more reason to do the rescue mission anyway, than not to do it. So I think the end result is the same no matter what.

But, regardless, he didn't say no. So what Mel would have done doesn't matter. He may have just said nothing, and let her have the women not really agreeing or disagreeing. He doesn't normally make quick decisions, so he might have said do what you wish, I want no part in it. That's why the people saying he sent him drive me nuts, as we don't know. Not killing, or locking a man up when we already know he thinks he should have been pardoned and letting Mel have the women she and Mance asked for isn't the same as agreeing. Plus we are told in this scene that the law ends at the wall, and Mance never fled south, so he's not technically a deserter, thus shouldn't be killed.

And there is no proof Jon said yes, and helped plan. In fact, how little he knows of the plan indicates that he had nothing to do with it beyond not actively stopping it. Could he have said yes? I suppose, but given how he never makes snap decisions, and tends to be a bit passive aggressive it doesn't really fit with what we know of him to say yes when pressured like Mel was doing. Wanting no part in it, but not stopping her either in case she is right because of the doubts and guilt he's feeling from her bringing him to this meeting right after his dealing with from the heads (even though she told him after the men were gone) and seeing the glammor and the whole show Mel just put on seems far more in keeping with the slow to decide, brooding guy we know. 

[Tagganaro]

39 minutes ago, Azarial said:

If Jon says no, but keeps Mance alive as Rattleshirt so that he can use him as source of information (since we know he never wanted him executed, as Jon thought he was more valuable alive) Mel could assume he said no because of his honor and would be happy if it were done by someone else, so that he bore no responsibility.

We have Jon's own thoughts on the matter, and it's clear he assumes responsibility for this and is willing to kill Mance, despite his value.  

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A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage.  On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the North.  "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said.  The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town.  It seemed like madness now.  He might have done better to strike down Mance the moment he revealed himself.  Jon had a certain grudging admiration for the late King-Beyond-the-Wall, but the man was an oathbreaker and a turn-cloak.  He had even less trust in Melisandre.  Yet somehow here he was, pinning his hopes on them.  All to save my sister. 

 And I've had a further thought after re-reading this...the fact that Mance asks for "pretty" spearwives seems to make it pretty clear he was always planning on going to Winterfell and pulling off the "Abel" ploy with the washerwomen spearwives.  

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Besides, she has never cared about permission, if she did Mance would be dead. She didn't have Stannis's permission to save him, she did that because she saw a use for him. She never worried about his wrath, and he has more value to her than Jon, and is in a greater position to take his wrath out by banishing her. 

 

This conversation has been had elsewhere in more depth, but it is really unclear whether she did the Mance switch with or without Stannis's permission.  It seems unlikely Stannis would agree to trickery like this, but at the same time certain comments Mel makes definitely make it seem like Stannis knew about the switch.  

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She cares about getting Jon to trust in her abilities. I believe asking permission was for show. If he says no, and then the rescue mission works he won't be mad, he'll be relieved that she is safe so what wrath is she risking? And she believes in her abilities enough to take that chance. They were talking like the plan was final before she ever went to Jon, and she timed it all to line up with the heads arriving, and getting the wall to melt, then she removed the glamore. That is what she means by the dance. She is putting on a show to win his trust in her magic, and the best way to do that in her mind is to save the girl. Him saying no won't stop her. And if he killed Mance she would just find another way. Stannis left her a few men she could use. Or if the other Free folk are Stannis's she could just use a few of them instead. 

Isn't trust in Mel's abilities the same as trust in Mel the person?  They are one and the same.  Jon is basically a replacement Stannis for the moment as he is "king" at the Wall and Mel either needs or wants him to rely on her so she can do as she pleases.  I agree they were talking like the plan was final, but Jon makes it clear he played an important role in it in terms of procuring the spearwives.  Your points are well-taken, but I still believe that if Jon said "no" the rescue mission would not have happened.  Mel has no use for "Arya" except as a means of winning over Jon- she has no logical reason to risk pissing Jon off just to save "Arya."

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So he could have killed Mance, okay. But we already know he thinks killing him was a mistake and that Stannis was rigid to the point of being foolish. And as the Lord Commander he can pardon Mance, or take him prisoner instead of killing him. He couldn't before because Mance was Stannis's prisoner not his. But he is back, he hasn't run away since being back. He did help fight the true enemy and guard the realms of men better than most men who stayed at the wall and Jon knows this. He knows more about the true enemy than anyone else. If he kills him he loses that information. If any of the Free folk find out he killed him, he could lose their trust too. But, as long as Mance is Mel's slave she will use him to win Jon's trust, she tells Jon she can tell he will be loyal because of the ruby and the fact that they have his baby, but he doesn't know it makes him a slave. He doesn't know the risk of leaving him alive and glamored, so he has more reasons not to kill him than to kill him. Just like she has more reason to do the rescue mission anyway, than not to do it. So I think the end result is the same no matter what.

The above passage I quoted seems to suggest that Jon certainly thinks he could have killed Mance if he wanted to, and maybe that he should have.  Either way, Stannis gave "Rattleshirt" to Jon to do with as he pleased, and either way Jon is charged with ruling over the wildlings at the Wall in Stannis's absence.

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But, regardless, he didn't say no. So what Mel would have done doesn't matter. He may have just said nothing, and let her have the women not really agreeing or disagreeing. He doesn't normally make quick decisions, so he might have said do what you wish, I want no part in it. That's why the people saying he sent him drive me nuts, as we don't know. Not killing, or locking a man up when we already know he thinks he should have been pardoned and letting Mel have the women she and Mance asked for isn't the same as agreeing. Plus we are told in this scene that the law ends at the wall, and Mance never fled south, so he's not technically a deserter, thus shouldn't be killed.

I disagree on this.  Jon did agree to the plan, that much Jon thinks about.  Not only did he agree but he played an active role in getting the spearwives.  And Mance is a deserter, that is clear.  Jon thinks him an oathbreaker and a turncloak, and like the first chapter in AGOT when Ned beheads the NW deserter, that tends to be the way to deal with them.

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And there is no proof Jon said yes, and helped plan. In fact, how little he knows of the plan indicates that he had nothing to do with it beyond not actively stopping it. Could he have said yes? I suppose, but given how he never makes snap decisions, and tends to be a bit passive aggressive it doesn't really fit with what we know of him to say yes when pressured like Mel was doing. Wanting no part in it, but not stopping her either in case she is right because of the doubts and guilt he's feeling from her bringing him to this meeting right after his dealing with from the heads (even though she told him after the men were gone) and seeing the glammor and the whole show Mel just put on seems far more in keeping with the slow to decide, brooding guy we know. 

Again, see the above passage.  Jon certainly disagrees with this.  He says he's the one who "loosed" Mance on the North and he sent his own man Edd to procure the spearwives.  That is not only saying yes that is Jon being an active participant.  But I agree with the idea that Jon knows very little of the plan as we see afterwards.  He is a willing participant, but he is being deceived and as I have said before, it's frustrating that Jon who is normally a very cautious and methodical character never asks questions about the spearwives and Mance's other ploy (and we know further that Jon is not involved in this because he dwells on where Mance is and what game he is playing after Alys shows up).

[BlackLightning]

I think the main people causing trouble at the Wall to the point where it gets full-on anarchical will be the Queen's Men.

Speaking of which, I think they or maybe even Selyse herself will be the ones to burn Shireen. I think Melisandre (and to a much lesser degree, Bowen Marsh too) will lose complete control of the situation. Either because:

1. she'll be exposed as an incompetent semi-fraud
2. the Wall will receive news that Stannis and his army are losing badly/starving to death
3. the Wall will come under attack by either Weeper and the other "evil" wildlings, the Boltons or the Others themselves
4. she'll be so obsessed and preoccupied with Jon's corpse (and maybe even Val's wildling magic) that she will minimize or ignore everything else until she can't anymore

And all that is considering if Shireen even burns. I think she'll die either way but she might end up like that one girl Danny Flint. Or maybe Val and the wildlings get their hands on her for fear of a greyscale epidemic.

[Lollygag]

On 6/4/2018 at 4:31 PM, Nevets said:

That's assuming he finds out she's Jeyne Poole.  If she arrives while he is comatose/"dead" he he wouldn't be in a position to meet her.  With Ramsay apparently on the warpath, neither she nor her escort is going to be inclined to linger, so traveling on to Eastwatch and Braavos is quite likely.   Which means he will likely think he just missed her.

He may miss her but I doubt he escapes finding out. It seems like a very poorly kept secret and LF was only using her as a placeholder. The fArya plot only needed to work for a short time until LF could move on to whatever's next. I don't know what that would be, but it surely wasn't giving the Boltons the seat permanently.

Anyhow, I think Jon/Ghost are headed to Winterfell as planned. I don't think he's going to just wait around twiddling his thumbs while he thinks Arya is in trouble and he can now do nothing at the Wall. Besides, if Marsh holds the Wall for any real period of time, he'll make every wrong choice which makes it even more important to secure Winterfell to back up the NW. Under Bowen Marsh the first line of defense is likely already lost - just a matter of time. Better to focus on shoring up the second line of defense which would be Winterfell and the North.

[Azarial]

2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We have Jon's own thoughts on the matter, and it's clear he assumes responsibility for this and is willing to kill Mance, despite his value.  

Is this around the burning? I took that as if Mance has to die, it should be up to the Nights watch how he dies, as he used to be one of them. But he also said outright that he wanted Stannis to pardon him, and that he was more use alive. 

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 And I've had a further thought after re-reading this...the fact that Mance asks for "pretty" spearwives seems to make it pretty clear he was always planning on going to Winterfell and pulling off the "Abel" ploy with the washerwomen spearwives.  

I agree that Mance always had a plan to infiltrate the Wedding. I've never said any different. Jon just didn't seem to want to know more. This is what leads me to believe he didn't give a firm yes or full support. He really seemed to not want to be fully involved in what was happening. 

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This conversation has been had elsewhere in more depth, but it is really unclear whether she did the Mance switch with or without Stannis's permission.  It seems unlikely Stannis would agree to trickery like this, but at the same time certain comments Mel makes definitely make it seem like Stannis knew about the switch.  

It doesn't seem like he knew to me, because of what Mel said about him not being willing to make exceptions. But since the law ended at the wall, she used that as justification to defy him, since it happened beyond the wall. But, no one knows  for sure other than George, so anything is possible. But with the Wedding not originally at Winterfell, and the castle being abandoned at the time when Stannis left, and the invitation coming after he left regardless I see no reason for Stannis to have anything to do with this. 

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Isn't trust in Mel's abilities the same as trust in Mel the person?  They are one and the same.  Jon is basically a replacement Stannis for the moment as he is "king" at the Wall and Mel either needs or wants him to rely on her so she can do as she pleases.  I agree they were talking like the plan was final, but Jon makes it clear he played an important role in it in terms of procuring the spearwives.  Your points are well-taken, but I still believe that if Jon said "no" the rescue mission would not have happened.  Mel has no use for "Arya" except as a means of winning over Jon- she has no logical reason to risk pissing Jon off just to save "Arya."

This I disagree with. In the quote below, she equates mistrust with him not loving her. And says he will never love her, so he will never not mistrust her, but will make use of her. So I don't see how she could be wanting his trust, when what she seems to seek if just his reliance in her prophetic abilities and power. But, I'm sure others interpret this differently. I just think she believes in what she's doing and cares more about results than being liked. This may be why we see her willingness to go against his wishes differently as well.

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She walked as close to Jon Snow as she dared, close enough to feel the mistrust pouring off him like a black fog. He does not love me, will never love me, but he will make use of me. Well and good. Melisandre had danced the same dance with Stannis Baratheon, back in the beginning. In truth, the young lord commander and her king had more in common than either one would ever be willing to admit. Stannis had been a younger son living in the shadow of his elder brother, just as Jon Snow, bastard-born, had always been eclipsed by his trueborn sibling, the fallen hero men had called the Young Wolf. Both men were unbelievers by nature, mistrustful, suspicious. The only gods they truly worshiped were honor and duty.

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The above passage I quoted seems to suggest that Jon certainly thinks he could have killed Mance if he wanted to, and maybe that he should have.  Either way, Stannis gave "Rattleshirt" to Jon to do with as he pleased, and either way Jon is charged with ruling over the wildlings at the Wall in Stannis's absence.

But, did he want to kill Mance or did he believe it was what the rigid interpretation of the law dictated, but he felt it was wrong in this case? Strict adherence to the law and what is right aren't the same. Jon feels guilt and stress over this disconnect throughout much of his arc. The law says he should die, but Jon's gut instinct had him trying to get Stannis to pardon him, so Jon didn't think he should die. And Mel said he saved Mance by making the argument that the law ends at the wall. It's never clarified what context and Jon seems confused, so what was meant by Mel is open for interpretation. But it is made clear Jon didn't want him killed and she saved him for Jon. 

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I disagree on this.  Jon did agree to the plan, that much Jon thinks about.  Not only did he agree but he played an active role in getting the spearwives.  And Mance is a deserter, that is clear.  Jon thinks him an oathbreaker and a turncloak, and like the first chapter in AGOT when Ned beheads the NW deserter, that tends to be the way to deal with them.

Knowing about it, and saying do what you want, I won't stop you, but I don't want to know anything about it; doesn't mean he didn't get the spear wives. It just says he didn't say yes do it, and then help plan it. He could have said the spearwives are free women or Stannis's prisoners do with them what you wish. We don't know. This is why how he views the people at Moles Town matters more than the fact that they see him as being in charge of them. If he sees them as free, and just living under his protection or being bound to their oath to keep the kings peace then he could have said I'll have someone ask if they're willing to help/meet with you and if so bring them to you. We are never told that he ordered them to do anything. All it says is Ed smuggled them out. But, that could be because there were guards to make sure they didn't leave the gift and start raiding and they needed Ed, to go get them as the guards wouldn't let them leave on their own, or let Mel come take them without permission from Jon.

All we know is he is worried about where they are after the fact and says he loosed them. So he got them and left them with Mel to do whatever she wanted. That is loosed, as they are now free from Moles Town and not under guard. That doesn't mean he did any more than that. Maybe he did. But it doesn't seem to fit with his character. But a lonely boy not actively stopping someone from trying to help his sister, that I can see. And there is a big difference between I'll get you the women you need so you can talk to them, but want nothing else to do with this and don't even want to know the plan and saying yes, go save my sister, followed by ordering the spear wives to help. And his guilt is less than the guilt he felt over following the orders to turn cloak, and that was following orders. He is known for feeling guilt over everything that's just part of who he is, so this doesn't make me think he was an active participant. Maybe we are saying the same thing, but in different words? I think to be be an active participant he has to be part of the plan, not just allowing the actual active parties to meet, and leave. So that may be why we seem to be saying some of the same things, but still not agreeing? And part of my reluctance in saying active is it's a short leap to the assumption of ordered that some are clinging to. And I strongly disagree with him ordering the mission. He allowed the spearwives to be brought to Mel, and turned a blind eye after that. He took no part in what she or they did after that point. That is what I believe.

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 But I agree with the idea that Jon knows very little of the plan as we see afterwards.  He is a willing participant, but he is being deceived and as I have said before, it's frustrating that Jon who is normally a very cautious and methodical character never asks questions about the spearwives and Mance's other ploy (and we know further that Jon is not involved in this because he dwells on where Mance is and what game he is playing after Alys shows up).

I see his not asking questions as him doing his best to keep his vows and not take part. Allowing them to meet, and for her to be in charge of them isn't technically taking part. It's a murky grey area and his toes are on the line to be sure lol but, by not knowing the plan, not participating in the plan, he can argue that he didn't interfere. The grey area is that he knew they wanted to get Arya from long lake. If it wasn't for that, if Mel said I need the assistance of these spear wives could you bring them to me and he didn't know about Arya, then it's clear that his actual actions aren't wrong. It's the context that makes it difficult, and that is why I get defensive of him when people say he deserved to die for this. Really? Seems a bit extreme. (I know you never said that!) But, this is I way I won't say active participant, even if it is just semantics.

[Nevets]

22 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

He may miss her but I doubt he escapes finding out. It seems like a very poorly kept secret and LF was only using her as a placeholder. The fArya plot only needed to work for a short time until LF could move on to whatever's next. I don't know what that would be, but it surely wasn't giving the Boltons the seat permanently.

Just out of curiosity, how is it a poorly kept secret?  Nobody in the North has seen Arya for over two years now, and then only briefly, and it's not as if they have photographs to compare her against.  The residents of Winterfell are either dead or at the Dreadfort.  Regular visitors like the Cerwyns are dead as well.  She matches the overall description of Arya, is roughly the right age, and knows enough about Winterfell to fool outsiders (essentially everybody).  While there may be some inside Winterfell who know differently, I doubt that information will make it out anytime soon, or will necessarily be taken seriously if it does.

As for Littlefinger or even Jon saying she's a fake, why should they be believed?  Anything they say would be perceived as self-serving or due to animus towards the Boltons.  Jon could also be accused of wanting to protect his sister.  In any case, if Littlefinger takes any action regarding the North, it will involve Sansa, who takes precedence over Arya in any case, fake or otherwise.

[Lollygag]

Just now, Nevets said:

Just out of curiosity, how is it a poorly kept secret?  Nobody in the North has seen Arya for over two years now, and then only briefly, and it's not as if they have photographs to compare her against.  The residents of Winterfell are either dead or at the Dreadfort.  Regular visitors like the Cerwyns are dead as well.  She matches the overall description of Arya, is roughly the right age, and knows enough about Winterfell to fool outsiders (essentially everybody).  While there may be some inside Winterfell who know differently, I doubt that information will make it out anytime soon, or will necessarily be taken seriously if it does.

As for Littlefinger or even Jon saying she's a fake, why should they be believed?  Anything they say would be perceived as self-serving or due to animus towards the Boltons.  Jon could also be accused of wanting to protect his sister.  In any case, if Littlefinger takes any action regarding the North, it will involve Sansa, who takes precedence over Arya in any case, fake or otherwise.

I don't believe the story LF is feeding Sansa as it makes no sense so I'm not sure what he's up to. As such, I'm not convinced that LF wants Sansa at Winterfell at this point in time. Maybe later...I don't know. Sansa already caught LF bs-ing her about his plans when she asked about Harrenhal.

Anyhow, much was made of how none of Ned's legit kids looked like him except Arya. There's Theon. Jeyne's eye color is wrong. She was questioned about Winterfell indicating pre-existing skepticism. It's laid out in more detail than I can provide elsewhere on the forum, I just can't recall where. Sorry I can't point you to it offhand.

It's established in Sansa's POV that lesser lords should be expected to know what their sworn lord's kids look like.

AFFC Alayne I

"Bronze Yohn knows me," she reminded him. "He was a guest at Winterfell when his son rode north to take the black." She had fallen wildly in love with Ser Waymar, she remembered dimly, but that was a lifetime ago, when she was a stupid little girl. "And that was not the only time. Lord Royce saw . . . he saw Sansa Stark again at King's Landing, during the Hand's tourney."

Petyr put a finger under her chin. "That Royce glimpsed this pretty face I do not doubt, but it was one face in a thousand. A man fighting in a tourney has more to concern him than some child in the crowd. And at Winterfell, Sansa was a little girl with auburn hair. My daughter is a maiden tall and fair, and her hair is chestnut. Men see what they expect to see, Alayne." He kissed her nose. "Have Maddy lay a fire in the solar. I shall receive our Lords Declarant there."

 

 

[Clegane'sPup]

I see that posters are moving from meanwhile back at the Wall to Mance.  Love me some Mance.

Jon questions stuff. Perhaps Bolton didn’t have his sister. Maybe the wedding was a ruse to lure Stannis into a trap.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII      What if Bolton never had his sister? This wedding could well be just some ruse to lure Stannis into a trap. Eddard Stark had never had any reason to complain of the Lord of the Dreadfort, so far as Jon knew, but even so he had never trusted him, with his whispery voice and his pale, pale eyes.     A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north.                       "Young ones, and pretty," Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole's Town./

Seems like LC Snow was on course. Roose did change his plans. The wedding was changed from Barrowton to WF with the intent to lure Stannis into a trap as described below. And Bolton is depending on Karstark to reel Stannis in.

A Dance with Dragons - Reek III        That is only half of it, however. We would be fools to march on Stannis. Let Stannis march on us. He is too cautious to come to Barrowton … but he must come to Winterfell. His clansmen will not abandon the daughter of their precious Ned to such as you. Stannis must march or lose them … and being the careful commander that he is, he will summon all his friends and allies when he marches. He will summon Arnolf Karstark."    Ramsay licked his chapped lips. "And we'll have him."/

 

What about the women Mance requested ----- young and pretty. Mance supplied some names and Edd smuggled the women from Moles Town. Yet, when Mance/Abel shows up at the gates of WF this is what Theon recalled.

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell       Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him./

Now, that is not to say Abel’s wife and his mother aren’t pretty, but they ain’t young. So what changed? Mance and his women were sposed to intercept a girl near a lake ---that was the mission.     Why did martin send Mance to WF?

 

 

[Nevets]

8 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I don't believe the story LF is feeding Sansa as it makes no sense so I'm not sure what he's up to. As such, I'm not convinced that LF wants Sansa at Winterfell at this point in time. Maybe later...I don't know. Sansa already caught LF bs-ing her about his plans when she asked about Harrenhal.

Anyhow, much was made of how none of Ned's legit kids looked like him except Arya. There's Theon. Jeyne's eye color is wrong. She was questioned about Winterfell indicating pre-existing skepticism. It's laid out in more detail than I can provide elsewhere on the forum, I just can't recall where. Sorry I can't point you to it offhand.

It's established in Sansa's POV that lesser lords should be expected to know what their sworn lord's kids look like.

AFFC Alayne I

 

"Bronze Yohn knows me," she reminded him. "He was a guest at Winterfell when his son rode north to take the black." She had fallen wildly in love with Ser Waymar, she remembered dimly, but that was a lifetime ago, when she was a stupid little girl. "And that was not the only time. Lord Royce saw . . . he saw Sansa Stark again at King's Landing, during the Hand's tourney."

 

Petyr put a finger under her chin. "That Royce glimpsed this pretty face I do not doubt, but it was one face in a thousand. A man fighting in a tourney has more to concern him than some child in the crowd. And at Winterfell, Sansa was a little girl with auburn hair. My daughter is a maiden tall and fair, and her hair is chestnut. Men see what they expect to see, Alayne." He kissed her nose. "Have Maddy lay a fire in the solar. I shall receive our Lords Declarant there."

 

 

 

 

I am also skeptical of LF's explanation to Sansa about his future plans.  However, I don't see any reason for Littlefinger to even care about the North without Sansa somehow being involved.

Theon gave fArya away at the wedding,  essentially a statement that she was the real thing.  I doubt anybody knows what her eye color is.  I myself couldn't tell you the eye color of even people I know well.

As Theon points out, children change a great deal in appearance at that age.  For an example, check out the actress who plays Arya in the show.  She changed so much between seasons 1 and 2 I almost thought she had been recast.  Any differences are likely to be attributed to that.  The main threat is recognition as actually being Jeyne Poole.

Of course there is going to be some skepticism.  Nobody is going to take anything the Boltons//Lannisters do at face value.  However, she passed the test, and can probably pass any other test devised.  If they would know enough to catch her out, they would probably know enough to recognize her in any case.

[Tagganaro]

45 minutes ago, Azarial said:

Is this around the burning? I took that as if Mance has to die, it should be up to the Nights watch how he dies, as he used to be one of them. But he also said outright that he wanted Stannis to pardon him, and that he was more use alive. 

No this is after Mance has revealed himself and is sent to rescue Arya.  Jon feels regret for his part in it, although as a big Mance fan I'm glad Jon admits his "admiration" for Mance, who is a huge influence on Jon in many ways.

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I agree that Mance always had a plan to infiltrate the Wedding. I've never said any different. Jon just didn't seem to want to know more. This is what leads me to believe he didn't give a firm yes or full support. He really seemed to not want to be fully involved in what was happening. 

This is fair, but to use a term from the books it's a "paper shield" for Jon.  

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It doesn't seem like he knew to me, because of what Mel said about him not being willing to make exceptions. But since the law ended at the wall, she used that as justification to defy him, since it happened beyond the wall. But, no one knows  for sure other than George, so anything is possible. But with the Wedding not originally at Winterfell, and the castle being abandoned at the time when Stannis left, and the invitation coming after he left regardless I see no reason for Stannis to have anything to do with this. 

I'm so torn about this.  I used to believe 100% Stannis didn't know about this and would never sanction deceit like this.  But upon reread I found certain phrases Mel used to be indicative of Stannis signing off on this.  I won't reproduce them here, but it is sufficient for me to say that there is a basis to think that both Stannis and Mance have a role in the Pink Letter.

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This I disagree with. In the quote below, she equates mistrust with him not loving her. And says he will never love her, so he will never not mistrust her, but will make use of her. So I don't see how she could be wanting his trust, when what she seems to seek if just his reliance in her prophetic abilities and power. But, I'm sure others interpret this differently. I just think she believes in what she's doing and cares more about results than being liked. This may be why we see her willingness to go against his wishes differently as well.

To say what I said before, this is one and the same to me.  We see from her POV that she really wants Jon's approval, whether that translates to trust in her or trust in her abilities I don't think there's really a functional difference.  

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But, did he want to kill Mance or did he believe it was what the rigid interpretation of the law dictated, but he felt it was wrong in this case? Strict adherence to the law and what is right aren't the same. Jon feels guilt and stress over this disconnect throughout much of his arc. The law says he should die, but Jon's gut instinct had him trying to get Stannis to pardon him, so Jon didn't think he should die. And Mel said he saved Mance by making the argument that the law ends at the wall. It's never clarified what context and Jon seems confused, so what was meant by Mel is open for interpretation. But it is made clear Jon didn't want him killed and she saved him for Jon. 

I think we can put all this aside honestly- I think that Jon thinks Mance deserves to die but can't reconcile it with his own admiration for Mance.  He looks up to Mance, likes Mance the person, and basically understands that Mance is a badass who can be useful.

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Knowing about it, and saying do what you want, I won't stop you, but I don't want to know anything about it; doesn't mean he didn't get the spear wives. It just says he didn't say yes do it, and then help plan it. He could have said the spearwives are free women or Stannis's prisoners do with them what you wish. We don't know. This is why how he views the people at Moles Town matters more than the fact that they see him as being in charge of them. If he sees them as free, and just living under his protection or being bound to their oath to keep the kings peace then he could have said I'll have someone ask if they're willing to help/meet with you and if so bring them to you. We are never told that he ordered them to do anything. All it says is Ed smuggled them out. But, that could be because there were guards to make sure they didn't leave the gift and start raiding and they needed Ed, to go get them as the guards wouldn't let them leave on their own, or let Mel come take them without permission from Jon.

 

I'm not sure I understand your point here...Jon himself is saying he took an active role in this.  He is saying he "loosed" Mance on the North and that he ordered Edd to help get the spearwives out of Mole's Town.  I think this is honestly just semantics at this point as you point out below- I'd say Jon took an active role in this and you'd say Jon didn't actively stop them...either way I'd say the end result is Jon feels guilt maybe over not actively stopping them.

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I see his not asking questions as him doing his best to keep his vows and not take part. Allowing them to meet, and for her to be in charge of them isn't technically taking part. It's a murky grey area and his toes are on the line to be sure lol but, by not knowing the plan, not participating in the plan, he can argue that he didn't interfere. The grey area is that he knew they wanted to get Arya from long lake. If it wasn't for that, if Mel said I need the assistance of these spear wives could you bring them to me and he didn't know about Arya, then it's clear that his actual actions aren't wrong. It's the context that makes it difficult, and that is why I get defensive of him when people say he deserved to die for this. Really? Seems a bit extreme. (I know you never said that!) But, this is I way I won't say active participant, even if it is just semantics.

I can agree with this, but only to the extent that I'd still say it's a paper shield for Jon.  It doesn't hold up to scrutiny and that's why he feels guilt over this.

To the bolded, I can only laugh because that's ridiculous.  As a reader of the books removed from Westeros, I don't give a sh*t about Jon's oaths or what not.  I know the Boltons are awful and that what Ramsay is doing to Jeyne Poole is unspeakable and that Jon is a freaking hero for doing whatever he can to save this poor girl, who btw Jon thinks is his beloved sister.  So yeah, I can't understand people thinking that and anything that causes Ramsay and the Boltons trouble is good by me.

[kissdbyfire]

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

I'm so torn about this.  I used to believe 100% Stannis didn't know about this and would never sanction deceit like this.  But upon reread I found certain phrases Mel used to be indicative of Stannis signing off on this.  I won't reproduce them here, but it is sufficient for me to say that there is a basis to think that both Stannis and Mance have a role in the Pink Letter.

There's also the fact that Mance as Rattleshirt tells Jon that Stannis "burned the man the had to burn" when the two sort of practice in the yard and "Rattleshirt" kicks Jon's arse. 

[Lollygag]

42 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I am also skeptical of LF's explanation to Sansa about his future plans.  However, I don't see any reason for Littlefinger to even care about the North without Sansa somehow being involved.

Theon gave fArya away at the wedding,  essentially a statement that she was the real thing.  I doubt anybody knows what her eye color is.  I myself couldn't tell you the eye color of even people I know well.

As Theon points out, children change a great deal in appearance at that age.  For an example, check out the actress who plays Arya in the show.  She changed so much between seasons 1 and 2 I almost thought she had been recast.  Any differences are likely to be attributed to that.  The main threat is recognition as actually being Jeyne Poole.

Of course there is going to be some skepticism.  Nobody is going to take anything the Boltons//Lannisters do at face value.  However, she passed the test, and can probably pass any other test devised.  If they would know enough to catch her out, they would probably know enough to recognize her in any case.

I agree Sansa's involved, but it may be a much longer game than we think hence the need for a placeholder who can hold out for a few years or so.

Theon's not acting of his own free will and everyone knows it so that doesn't go far at all. I don't disagree with your reasoning at all, but it contradicts the set up in the story so I have to go with that as he's the one writing the books. As I showed in the previous quote, it's expected that the Lord's children should be recognized. And none of the Starks have brown eyes.

ADWD Reek II

The girl was slim, and taller than he remembered, but that was only to be expected. Girls grow fast at that age. Her dress was grey wool bordered with white satin; over it she wore an ermine cloak clasped with a silver wolf's head. Dark brown hair fell halfway down her back. And her eyes …

That is not Lord Eddard's daughter.

Arya had her father's eyes, the grey eyes of the Starks. A girl her age might let her hair grow long, add inches to her height, see her chest fill out, but she could not change the color of her eyes. That's Sansa's little friend, the steward's girl. Jeyne, that was her name. Jeyne Poole.

 

Like I said, this is laid out better on other threads and goes into detail about Barbery's and other's behaviors which indicate that they know Arya isn't real which I can't reproduce here as it's been too long and I can't reread right now. Worth checking it out if it can be found. Maybe the Great Northern Conspiracy threads is where I saw it?

[WildlingWitch]

8 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Mance left Castle Black to find Arya and bring her to the wall because Jon told him to.  That is very inappropriate for a Lord commander to do.  Or do you think Jon was going to return her to Ramsay.  We both know, Jon's intent was to get her away from the Boltons.  That on it's own is not acceptable actions for a Lord commander.

It cannot be denied that Mance is acting under Jon's orders.  He did exactly what Jon told him to do, "rescue" his sister.  Mance did exactly that.  Mance didn't risk his life just for giggles.  He went to get Arya because Jon told him to.  So even if Jon didn't specifically say, "go to Winterfell and get horsey face," Jon still told Mance to get his sister, and he never specifically said, "under no circumstances are you to kill anybody in the process, you are not to go to Winterfell.".  Jon had to have realized that it may come down to Winterfell, that is why all the trouble with the spearwives.  Jon sent Mance on his mission, Jon is guilty of treason.  Jon never said, "only get her if she's at long lake and don't do anything illegal.". The whole mission was illegal.  It was stupid and ignored the larger picture.  

It most certainly can be denied 

The wildling turned to Melisandre. “I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”
“What is he talking about?” Lord Snow asked her.

Mance had already decided to go on the mission BEFORE Jon knew anything about it so Jon couldn't have ORDERED it.

Quote

Or do you think Jon was going to return her to Ramsay.

I don't understand why people use this as an argument. No I don't think Jon was going to sent her back to Ramsey, even if everything went smoothly and Jon realised that Jayne was impersonating Arya he still would not have sent her back to Ramsey. There is no law that says the Lord Commander has to send a fleeing bride back to her abuser. We actually see this play out with Alys Karstark it is the exact same dilemma that Jon would have faced with FArya and Ramsey and nobody tells Jon that he is wrong for helping her.