The Illyrio/Aegon thing

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not proven as such. Varys came after Duskendale, and we have no clear enough picture about the traitors Varys pointed to conclude they were, in fact, innocent. Rhaegar was not, that's clear. He seems to have entertained the notion to depose or limit the powers of his royal father.

Sure, but if he wanted a stable Targaryen leader, which is his official reason for the whole Aegon buisness, he would have (logically) gone all in for Rhaegar. 

[Ser Leftwich]

Has anyone floated the idea that Varys delivered the real Aegon to Illyrio, but then Illyrio had him killed and substituted in Faegon?

[aryagonnakill#2]

4 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Has anyone floated the idea that Varys delivered the real Aegon to Illyrio, but then Illyrio had him killed and substituted in Faegon?

I've seen it talked about.  Comes down to motive.  If Varys knew Ilyrio had a son of his own he would wonder, if its just a random Ilyrio is using, why bother?

[Rufus Snow]

On 8/16/2018 at 7:05 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Some would have us believe that Varys could have mothered him! 

I was happily laughing along with this, but as I scrolled down the thread, I kept on getting these doubts.... I mean we have never 'seen' Varys disrobed; we only have the word of Varys regarding past events, like the gelding and voices in the flames etc; all of his mummer's tricks would work as well for a female mummer as a male one; it's harder to see a face as 'female' if the head is shaved; and what better way to pass a woman off as a man, if that 'man' is a eunuch?

So, folks, is there really anything in the text that can utterly disprove this disquieting picture I now have? Because if we do have hints about a non-male line of Blackfyres still surviving..... aaagh, this train of thought is so far outside of my head-canon, I need to lie down and think where it might lead....

[Lost Melnibonean]

34 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Has anyone floated the idea that Varys delivered the real Aegon to Illyrio, but then Illyrio had him killed and substituted in Faegon?

Not yet in this thread, but the idea has been out there for some time. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

I was happily laughing along with this, but as I scrolled down the thread, I kept on getting these doubts.... I mean we have never 'seen' Varys disrobed; we only have the word of Varys regarding past events, like the gelding and voices in the flames etc; all of his mummer's tricks would work as well for a female mummer as a male one; it's harder to see a face as 'female' if the head is shaved; and what better way to pass a woman off as a man, if that 'man' is a eunuch?

So, folks, is there really anything in the text that can utterly disprove this disquieting picture I now have? Because if we do have hints about a non-male line of Blackfyres still surviving..... aaagh, this train of thought is so far outside of my head-canon, I need to lie down and think where it might lead....

No, unless Varys is a mermaid...

[Ser Leftwich]

6 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not yet in this thread, but the idea has been out there for some time. 

Thanks.

Maybe I read it so long ago that I forgot that it existed.

[Crona]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Sure, but if he wanted a stable Targaryen leader, which is his official reason for the whole Aegon buisness, he would have (logically) gone all in for Rhaegar. 

Wasn’t Rhaegar into prophecy which Varys may not like?

47 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

I was happily laughing along with this, but as I scrolled down the thread, I kept on getting these doubts.... I mean we have never 'seen' Varys disrobed; we only have the word of Varys regarding past events, like the gelding and voices in the flames etc; all of his mummer's tricks would work as well for a female mummer as a male one; it's harder to see a face as 'female' if the head is shaved; and what better way to pass a woman off as a man, if that 'man' is a eunuch?

So, folks, is there really anything in the text that can utterly disprove this disquieting picture I now have? Because if we do have hints about a non-male line of Blackfyres still surviving..... aaagh, this train of thought is so far outside of my head-canon, I need to lie down and think where it might lead....

Varys is Elia?

[Rufus Snow]

2 minutes ago, Crona said:

Varys is Elia?

Of course not, but I can see where I caused confusion.

I just meant I had the disquieting picture that Varys may be female... I kinda glossed over my train of thought from LM's original post, and forgot it started with motherhood rather than femininity per se. (Although, if Aegon is fAegon, all bets are off once more...)

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Sure, but if he wanted a stable Targaryen leader, which is his official reason for the whole Aegon buisness, he would have (logically) gone all in for Rhaegar. 

That is where one should take a learning curve into account. Varys experienced the Sack and the Rebellion firsthand - he might have only then realized that a good king is needed to really restore peace to the Realm.

If Varys has a connection to House Targaryen then he may have thought it was his duty to actually try to serve Aerys II as best he could. Or he may have had reason to believe that Rhaegar was too clumsy a plotter and had not enough support for a proper coup (especially not if they had no intention of actually murdering Aerys) The climate prior to the Rebellion reminds Pycelle of the prelude to the Dance, not a situation where the king is weak and the heir is strong. One false step there could have caused just as devastating a war than the Rebellion was later on.

A fun idea there could be that Varys is not, in fact, a son of Prince Maegor or Jaehaerys II or some Blackfyre, but rather a bastard of King Aerys II himself - Aerys' many mistresses as well as he accompanying the army to the Stepstones makes that not impossible. Aerys II most definitely could have fucked some Lysene whore during a visit in Lys, not to mention that some mistress or paramour he had early on might have been a Lyseni or given birth to her bastard in Lys for some reason - if take Lys as Varys' birthplace as gospel (which we don't have to at this point).

Varys could very well have been in his early twenties when Aerys II hired him, and being Aerys' son and Rhaegar's half-brother could explain why he may have tried to keep the peace between these two rather than fueling their conflict (Aerys attending Harrenhal helped to postpone the simmering conflict between father and son).

[bent branch]

20 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That is not what they say. Both state that Maelys was the last of Daemon's descendents through the male line. Neither refer to the female line. They do not say that there are still descendents through the female line left alive. Nor do they say that such a line has gone extinct.

So both statements allow for the possibility of a female line still existing. But none of the statements confirm it. An important difference.

Thank you for this post. I had been doing all this research to figure out how many female lines are possible (answer, many fewer than Blackfyre adherents would admit), but your post made me go back and just read the actual text. Although the Blackfyre adherents are really, really good at forcing the discussion to be from their POV, they often misread the text (confirmation bias). Here is what the text actually says (ADWD-Chapter 5):

Quote

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monsterous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre." The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. "And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

What Illyrio is saying here is very different from what the Blackfyre adherents think he is saying. Illyrio is saying the black dragon died on the Stepstones because the Gold Company and the lords of Westeros, particularly, would never rise for a Mopatis or Naharis (who, dollars to donuts, are the only Blackfyre descendents in this story). Also notice how Illyrio speaks of the Blackfyres in the past tense.

This next isn't necessarily aimed at you.

While I was researching I realized that Calla and her sister were probably Daemon's second and third born child. Daemon and Rohanne were married for 12 years. In that 12 years Rohanne had 8 pregnancies. If Calla and her sister are children two and three and the children were all born 18 months apart then the birth years would be as follows:

Aegon/Aemon:  late 184

Calla:  Mid 186

Second Daughter: late 187

Daemon: Mid 189

Haegon: late 190

Aenys:  mid 192

First Unnamed son: late 193

Second Unnamed son: mid 195

And that would be the end of them, there wouldn't be any room for any more pregnancies, although there may have been more twins.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think there is any reason whatsoever to believe that Daario has so much as a single drop of dragon blood. If he did, Dany's dragons would react to him the way they react to Brown Ben Plumm.

And again, Daemon's two daughters are not the only possible female branches of House Blackfyre. Both Daemon's daughters - whose number we don't know, it's at least two, but it could be more - may have children of their own as well as the four sons of Daemon who are likely to have had offspring of their own.

Saying there are only two female branches is the same as to claim there were only three grandsons of Daemon I - Daemon III, Daemon (IV), and Maelys - because those are the grandsons we know of. But we know that Haegon had multiple sons. And all of them - Haegon, Aenys, #6, and #7 - may have had children (sons and daughters) of their own.

Not to mention that the grandchildren - Daemon III, Daemon III's younger brother(s), Daemon (IV), and Maelys may all have had children of their own.

It is not a given that Daemon Blackfyre had a literal army of grandchildren, both male and female, but the way his descendants have been set up, this is not unlikely at all.

And the way Illyrio talks makes it clear from the context that he doesn't think House Blackfyre died out in the female line. If he had wanted to say House Blackfyre was gone, he would have said: 'When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of House Blackfyre.'

[bent branch]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think there is any reason whatsoever to believe that Daario has so much as a single drop of dragon blood. If he did, Dany's dragons would react to him the way they react to Brown Ben Plumm.

And again, Daemon's two daughters are not the only possible female branches of House Blackfyre. Both Daemon's daughters - whose number we don't know, it's at least two, but it could be more - may have children of their own as well as the four sons of Daemon who are likely to have had offspring of their own.

Saying there are only two female branches is the same as to claim there were only three grandsons of Daemon I - Daemon III, Daemon (IV), and Maelys - because those are the grandsons we know of. But we know that Haegon had multiple sons. And all of them - Haegon, Aenys, #6, and #7 - may have had children (sons and daughters) of their own.

Not to mention that the grandchildren - Daemon III, Daemon III's younger brother(s), Daemon (IV), and Maelys may all have had children of their own.

It is not a given that Daemon Blackfyre had a literal army of grandchildren, both male and female, but the way his descendants have been set up, this is not unlikely at all.

And the way Illyrio talks makes it clear from the context that he doesn't think House Blackfyre died out in the female line. If he had wanted to say House Blackfyre was gone, he would have said: 'When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of House Blackfyre.'

1.  Dany's dragons are quite chill around Daario. I can't remember where this passage is, but we are shown how the dragons react to Daario.

2.  I know Daemon's daughters are not the only possible sources of female lines. Did you miss my point that it makes no fucking difference? No Westerosi lord is going to rise for someone with a name like Mopatis or Naharis or Saan or whatever Essosi name. Without some of the lords rising to help the Gold Company, the Gold Company can never try to take the throne on their own since they couldn't keep their person on the throne and, thus, they could never come home. If it could never be revealed that Aegon is a Blackfyre of the female line what is the point? If GRRM actually wrote the entire Aegon arc to put a secret Blackfyre on the throne I will join the ranks of those calling him a hack.

3.  What I was researching these past few days was how many descendents could Daemon possibly have and the answer is very few. I took a genelogical approach to the question and figured out that by the third generation the Blackfyre name had been wiped out. I did this by assuming Illyrio is indeed a Blackfyre descendent and worked out how many generations from Daemon a man his age would have to be. Answer, 4 generations. In other words, he would be Daemon's great-great grandson. Maelys and the Daemon he killed would have been the third generation or great grandsons. And Daemon III, who Aegor tried to put on the throne, was second generation or Daemon's grandson. I was able to fit Illyrio into the House Blackfyre family tree with the assumption he is from 50 to 60 years old and the Blackfyre generations were approximately 18 years each. This was how I got Illyrio to fit into House Blackfyre. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

Thank you for this post. I had been doing all this research to figure out how many female lines are possible (answer, many fewer than Blackfyre adherents would admit), but your post made me go back and just read the actual text. Although the Blackfyre adherents are really, really good at forcing the discussion to be from their POV, they often misread the text (confirmation bias). Here is what the text actually says (ADWD-Chapter 5):

What Illyrio is saying here is very different from what the Blackfyre adherents think he is saying. Illyrio is saying the black dragon died on the Stepstones because the Gold Company and the lords of Westeros, particularly, would never rise for a Mopatis or Naharis (who, dollars to donuts, are the only Blackfyre descendents in this story). Also notice how Illyrio speaks of the Blackfyres in the past tense.

This next isn't necessarily aimed at you.

While I was researching I realized that Calla and her sister were probably Daemon's second and third born child. Daemon and Rohanne were married for 12 years. In that 12 years Rohanne had 8 pregnancies. If Calla and her sister are children two and three and the children were all born 18 months apart then the birth years would be as follows:

Aegon/Aemon:  late 184

Calla:  Mid 186

Second Daughter: late 187

Daemon: Mid 189

Haegon: late 190

Aenys:  mid 192

First Unnamed son: late 193

Second Unnamed son: mid 195

And that would be the end of them, there wouldn't be any room for any more pregnancies, although there may have been more twins.

A plain reading of Illyrio's statement is that the male line of Dameon Blackfyre was extinguished, and that the Golden Compnay will follow Daenerys because she can take them home. Of course, he says this with a smile through his forked beard, which hints at duplicity. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A plain reading of Illyrio's statement is that the male line of Dameon Blackfyre was extinguished, and that the Golden Compnay will follow Daenerys because she can take them home. Of course, he says this with a smile through his forked beard, which hints at duplicity. 

Duplicity doesn't have to be that Aegon is some long lost Blackfyre. Illyrio never cared about Daenerys other than wanting to bang her and the coin in exchange for 40,000 Dothrakis that Viserys was supposed to unleash on Westeros. He didn't have in his mind to keep her and marry her off to Aegon. He was willing to sacrifice her until she hatched herself 3 dragons. At that point in the story, we have no idea that Aegon even exists or that Jon Connington is still alive and that they are the Griffs he was talking about.

Honestly, what boggles the mind (my mind at least), is the Golden Company's willingness to go to Westeros with the Dothraki. Were they supposed to abandon Viserys when Aegon finally landed? Was that the plan? Because if that wasn't the plan, then I'm not really sure what they were thinking at that point.

[Frey family reunion]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And the way Illyrio talks makes it clear from the context that he doesn't think House Blackfyre died out in the female line. If he had wanted to say House Blackfyre was gone, he would have said: 'When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of House Blackfyre.'

I think that's correct.  We should assume that a character or characters in the story have a lineage that traces back to Daemon Blackfyre.  Of course it might be more significant to say that there is a character who's lineage traces back to Daena the defiant.  The problem for the Blackfyre enthusiasts is the dismissive manner in which Illyrio treats the distinction between the Black dragon and the Red dragon.  Most of the members of the current generation of the Golden Company have probably never seen a Blackfyre in their lifetime.  Their motivation now is finding a homeland. 

The significance of being a Blackfyre descendant may have more to do with whether there is a character who is descended from the bloodlines of Targaryen, Blackfyre, Velaryon, Plumm, Longwater et al.  In other words the mighty river that was the bloodline of Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters had branched off into a number of tributaries, and perhaps those tributaries have reunited again.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Duplicity doesn't have to be that Aegon is some long lost Blackfyre. Illyrio never cared about Daenerys other than wanting to bang her and the coin in exchange for 40,000 Dothrakis that Viserys was supposed to unleash on Westeros. He didn't have in his mind to keep her and marry her off to Aegon. He was willing to sacrifice her until she hatched herself 3 dragons. At that point in the story, we have no idea that Aegon even exists or that Jon Connington is still alive and that they are the Griffs he was talking about.

Honestly, what boggles the mind (my mind at least), is the Golden Company's willingness to go to Westeros with the Dothraki. Were they supposed to abandon Viserys when Aegon finally landed? Was that the plan? Because if that wasn't the plan, then I'm not really sure what they were thinking at that point.

The most common idea is that Viserys and Daenerys were supposed to ride ahead, but unable to control the horde, the horde would lay waste to Westeros, and Aegon and the Golden Company would sweep in and save the realm.

I never liked that theory. 

I suspect that he third and fourth Blackfyre Rebellions showed Illyrio that the Golden Company alone would not he sufficient to overthrow House Targaryen. Daenerys gave him the coin he needed to secure a much larger army. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think that's correct.  We should assume that a character or characters in the story have a lineage that traces back to Daemon Blackfyre.  Of course it might be more significant to say that there is a character who's lineage traces back to Daena the defiant.  The problem for the Blackfyre enthusiasts is the dismissive manner in which Illyrio treats the distinction between the Black dragon and the Red dragon.  Most of the members of the current generation of the Golden Company have probably never seen a Blackfyre in their lifetime.  Their motivation now is finding a homeland. 

The significance of being a Blackfyre descendant may have more to do with whether there is a character who is descended from the bloodlines of Targaryen, Blackfyre, Velaryon, Plumm, Longwater et al.  In other words the mighty river that was the bloodline of Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters had branched off into a number of tributaries, and perhaps those tributaries have reunited again.

I don't know... Lysono Maar

Spoiler

is offended by the term sellswords, asserting that the Golden Company is a "free brotherhood of exiles," still persistent even after several failures.

 

[bent branch]

5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A plain reading of Illyrio's statement is that the male line of Dameon Blackfyre was extinguished, and that the Golden Compnay will follow Daenerys because she can take them home. Of course, he says this with a smile through his forked beard, which hints at duplicity. 

I have decided you are just incapable of understanding. Illyrio is not lying. He is stating a bald fact. No Westerosi lord is going to rise for a Essosi to take the throne. The black dragon is dead. It died on the Stepstones. Daemon's descendents through the female line are nobodies is Westeros. Truth hurts.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

34 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The most common idea is that Viserys and Daenerys were supposed to ride ahead, but unable to control the horde, the horde would lay waste to Westeros, and Aegon and the Golden Company would sweep in and save the realm.

I never liked that theory. 

I suspect that he third and fourth Blackfyre Rebellions showed Illyrio that the Golden Company alone would not he sufficient to overthrow House Targaryen. Daenerys gave him the coin he needed to secure a much larger army. 

The theory doesn't really hold when an officer of the Golden Company states plainly that Viserys was supposed to join them with 50K Dorthraki screamers, in the Lost Lord chapter. It sounds like the Golden Company was supposed to go to Westeros with Viserys.

Every single plan Illyrio and Varys made was half-baked, but it sure sounds like there is no "sentimentality" where the Golden Company is concerned. What would have happened to these men once Aegon landed and rallied Westeros to him? They would have died or fled across the narrow sea once more.